When i read about some one who come up with an idea to play the game, they will show a bet selection.
But never do they show the negative expectation, define what it is, so you know what you are up against.

As i see it.

Lets me try to show what i mean ...
I have a bet selection for dominance, hitting long series of strikes.

It looks like this ...
WWL WWWWL WWWL WWWL WWL (L)

Now you could see that my entering point catch a long string of winnings bets, five series of attacks end up in profit.
Then i hit one loss, that indicate i will go into the territory where i deal with the negative expectation.

I have define the negative expectation and i know what i am up against, that way i also know how many loses i have to accept and when to quit.
As if i define my negative expectation, i then have 1 in 2 to prevent it from becoming due, end up in the big hole.

In this case three loses, is the exit point.
But this time i hit my second chance favoring me with LLW so i can continue or reach my win goal and quit ...

This way you also define what kind of fluctuation you have to deal with, in this case two loses when you have favorable hits going your way and not hitting the exit points of three loses.
Three loses that is the entering point for the big hole where nothing is due to happen.

That was the first level of getting a hunch about the negative expectation we face when we create one bet selection.
Now we end up with more entering point and exit point on a different overall level during the game.

Lets say that my entering point is three, then it can fail and become the entering point for the big hole where nothing is due to happen.
Then i have again a new chance 1 in 2 hitting a favorable shot for the second attack with three attempts.
But then comes the question if i would entering the game the second time when the distribution is favoring me or not favoring me, follow or go against.

It is like a step ladder with no end for each level when you face the big hole, negative expectation.
I made up my mind.
.
No matter where i am, i will always aim for what is present, follow the wheel.
It feels less then chasing for events that have no show, sleeping.

This is how the sequense end ...

WWL WWWWL WWWL WWWL WWL (LLW) WWWL WL WWWWWL (LLL)

 
I testing to win 15 to 20% out of 100 using regression strategy ...
Where you some times hit long strings of winning strikes or just cut Short and keep a small profit.

1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
2.0
1,5
1,0
1,0
1,5
1,5
1,5
4,0
1,5
-9
.
9 - 21,5 = plus 12,5
.
1,5
1,5
3,0
2,0
2,0
3,0
1,5
3,0
-11
.
11 - 17,5 = plus 6,5
.
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
4.0
1,5
1,0
1,5
1,5
-10,5
.
10,5 - 20 = plus 9,5
.
3,0
1,5
1,0
1,5
1,5
4,5
-9
.
9 -13 = plus 4
.
3,0
1,5
3,5
1,5
3,0
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
3,0
1,5
-10
.
10 - 24,5 = plus 14,5
.
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
-12
.
12 - 12 = plus 0
.
1,5
1,5
1,5
.
10,5 - 4,5 = minus 6
.

All this is thanks to John Patrick's metodology ...
Total plus 47 units playing 69 sessions ...

I just experiment with repeats using the principal of 1/3.
I use the formation of a dice with four patterns/formations.

XXX
XOX
XXO
OXX

I did never get 4 loses during 300 trails with today's random org file ...
That is pretty cool.

2    2    1
2    1    2
2    1    2 W
1    2    2 L
2    1    1 W
1    1    1 L
2    2    1 L
2    1    1 W
1    2    2 W
1    1    1 W
2    2    2 W
2    2    2 W
1    1    1 W
1    1    2 L
2    1    2 L
2    1    2 W
2    1    2 W
2    2    2 L
1    1    1 W
2    2    1 L
2    2    1 W
1    1    2 W
2    1    2 W
1    1    2 W
2    2    1 W
1    1    1 L
1    2    1 W
1    1    2 L
2    2    1 W
1    1    1 L
1    1    1 W
1    1    2 L
2    2    1 W
2    1    1 L
2    2    2 L
2    2    2 W
1    2    2 W
1    1    2 L
2    2    2 L
1    1    1 W
1    1    2 L
2    1    1 W
2    1    2 L
2    2    1 W
1    1    1 L
2    2    2 W
2    1    1 L
1    1    1 W
2    1    1 W
1    1    2 L
1    1    1 L
1    2    1 L
2    2    2 W
2    1    1 L
2    2    2 W
2    2    1 L
2    1    1 W
2    2    1 W
1    2    1 L
2    1    2 W
2    1    1 L
1    1    2 W
2    2    2 L
2    1    1 W
2    2    1 L
1    1    2 W
1    1    2 W
1    2    2 W
1    2    1 L
2    2    1 W
1    2    2 L
1    2    1 W
2    2    2 L
1    1    2 L
2    1    2 W
2    2    2 W
2    2    2 W
2    2    1 L
2    1    1 L
2    2    2 L
2    2    2 W
2    1    2 L
1    2    1 W
2    1    2 W
2    2    2 W
1    1    2 L
2    2    1 W
1    2    1 W
2    1    1 L
2    1    2 L
1    1    2 W
2    2    1 W
1    1    1 L
1    1    1 W
1    1    1 W
2    2    2 W
2    2    1 L
1    1    1 L
2    2    1 L
1    2    1 W

I test a raw selection with the regression plan and push with up and pull.
Loss limit -60 and win target 40 ...

Just for fun i run 300 trials with today's random org file ...

65
45
-60
45
40
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
40
-60

I think if i would add Brett Morton's MM to this, we would had higher win targets for a second and third rung with higher peaks as we would push more ...

I made a twist towards Lanky's old EC method ...
The LW-Registry look like this:

WL
LLW
WWWL
WL
WWL
WL
WL
LW
WWL
WWWWL
WL
WL
WL
WWWL
WWWL
WWWWL
WWWL
LW
WL

What would you say is a good read - roulette book !

Cheers

Do you know how to capitalize on zig zag events EC
I notice you can win on does strings LWLWLWLW or WLWLWLWLWL

Pretty cool with regression plan ...

John Patrick Posted 07/18/06 at 01:11 PM at his forum board.

- - -

Quote
I think I posted this before but it is such a great article (ahem) that I decided to slip it in here again..................   if you don't wanna read it, because it IS long, then just skip over it........but you'll read it, because even though it may not suit all of you, it certainly will be read by the 20-25 people who e mail me every month about their leaning to this type life ............   This chapter is from my last book (21st CENTURY BLACKJACK).........and gives a good solid look into what you can expect to find if this is the path you wish to take...............   Even if you do not read the whole article........slide down to the very last paragraph.............and tell me that you do not find YOURSELF in one of those three  sentences .............   After a day of gambling.....you feel either GOOD, BAD or UGLY.............see if you don't slide into one of those three categories ...........                                                   THE PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER   Not a week goes by, sometimes not even a day, when someone asks about the chances they would have in the world of gambling, if they would turn pro and do it on a constant and daily basis.  I give each of them the same reply:  "Try it for 6 months and see if you can be successful at it.  But keep your day job".   That last sentence is not to be funny, but to alert those people about the biggest  by far,  obstacle that stands in the way of someone becoming a pro.  It is the psychological drain on your mind when you have a losing streak that you can't get out of and there is no pay day looming on Friday, to cover the everyday expenses of life.     So, I will go over it again, for the umpteenth time.  Take $10,000, master the game or games of your choice and try to win $100 a week or $25 a day, or even $20 a day, for a period of 6 months, while staying at your everyday business or job.  Knowing that there is a payday in the wings takes a ton of pressure off of anyone who goes into this field.   I hit losing streaks all the time.  Make no mistake about it, it happens to even the best, but then I just admitted that it happens, (grin).  But seriously, when I get mired in a streak where things that usually happen on a pretty consistent basis, like grinding out decent returns, suddenly turn belly up, I get concerned.   Picking the outcome of sporting events like Basketball, Baseball, Hockey, Golf and Football are done with an approach that I have used for years, concentrating on POWER vs DOG.  All of a sudden the worm turns and these snakes start blowing games in the last inning or at the buzzer or on the final play.  Those mishaps are called BAD BEATS and they do hurt.     These types of situations don't last for a day or two, but sometimes will drag on for over a week or ten days.  You can't figure out why it happens and the loss of income does raise concerns and therein lies the ability of the  REAL PRO to deal with those times.  That is when the ability of being smart comes to the surface.     Since there is no pay check being handed out at the end of the week, you MUST have a sizable back up of money to keep you solid thru these times.  And you MUST BET LOWER.   You MUST BET LOWER.  Repeat for emphasis because that is where the difference between being successful and being a jerk come to a point of decision.   When I first started down this path, I figured I was always due to come out of the bad times and continued shoveling the money across the table.   My bets remained at the same amount and many times higher than normal.  The losses continued, the money dwindled, the panic set in and the psychological drain was overwhelming.     I already explained this in prior chapters but it is something you have to realize, if you are thinking of entering this lifestyle,  that the down times happen quite often.  Veterans of my books and tapes are aware of the two things I zero in on constantly, not just for prospective pros but for anyone who risks money on the outcome of a happening:   1)  ACCEPT SMALL WINS................   2)  SET LOSS LIMITS.......................   As soon as I mastered those two guidelines and FOLLOWED them, my bad days got outnumbered by the good ones.   It means  that by setting those LOSS LIMITS, I was able to ride out the down periods.  Then, on the days I got (get) ahead, I use the all important GUARANTEE and EXCESS, wrap up a profit and leave at the first hint of a losing streak (two losses in a row).  Maybe the wins aren't gigantic, but the days are not classified as losers.   I am probably unique in my lifestyle of gambling, in that I do not concentrate on any one game, but rather am adept in many, so that if something isn't working, there is an alternate outlet.  Of course I have my dominants and I will list them, in the order of what I gamble on mostly:   1)  SPORTS..................Far and away my favorite and this is done 364 days a year..........I take two days off.  The day after and the day before the annual baseball All Star game is dark.  There is absolutely no sporting event on those days, in any sport.    2)  POKER..................................I play high low split 4-5 nites a week..............   3)  PAI GOW POKER ..............A great game for anyone to use as the dominant..........   4)  CRAPS................................The table game in the casino that offers great grinding opportunities.............    5)  ROULETTE.........................A game that more people should play, but don't because of the adverse nonsense that others hand out about the vig being too high......................Bull.....oney............   6)  BACCARAT.........................The casino game that offers best chance for streaks............   7)  HORSE RACING.................Maybe 2 races a day, just to add to the mix..........     VIDEO POKER...................Good MONEY MANAGEMENT allows one to grind out small but consistent returns........   9)  BLACKJACK......................Toughest game in the house.  I love it but it is hard to get long streaks, as I have pointed out over and over............   10)  Anything else that allows me to put money at risk and where I have a chance to weigh my chances of winning or losing.................   Most pros zero in on one single game, like either Poker or Horses or Blackjack or Craps or Sports and stick with that game, and usually  with  one  back up.  I differ in my approach and have found this approach to fit my NEEDS.  The next chapter talks about the ENVELOPE SYSTEM, so read it.   As for the life itself, I find it fabulous.  I spend plenty of time with my family, which is numero uno in my life.  The 5 hour round trip to Atlantic City is filled with anticipation on the way down and the ride home is made at exactly 7 pm, so that I can listen to the sporting event I bet on, for the two and a half hour jaunt home.   Hot coffee and a sandwich is the diet  and occasionally donuts replace the regular meal.     I arrive home as the game is going off and a quick shower gives me time to make the 11 pm starting poker game, which goes until you decide you have won enough or lost enough.  I have a regular seat in the game and if I decide enough is enough, I get up and leave, as do all of the others and there are back ups waiting to keep the game filled.   Ahhhhhhhhh, those glorious nights in a poker game.  Did you ever sit in a shark infested area with your opponents waiting to skin you alive?  These games bring together a group of smart, sharp, callous, unyielding assassins in sheeps clothing.  Talk is minimal, mistakes are expensive, and mercy is absent.     The combatants are there for one purpose:  to take your money.  Of course you are there for the same purpose.  Make a slip up and a horde of vultures prey on that mistake.  Apologies are never presented and that old saying about the weak inheriting the earth is a lot of stuff.   These games prove, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that if you are weak of heart, short of money and mistake prone, you will pay.   A slip of the tongue is picked up by every conniving soul at that table, so keep your mouth shut and your eyes and ears open.  It is a challenge for those ready to suffer the consequences or reap the rewards.     It is pure out and out joy..................I LOVE THE CHALLENGE.   So, if you have aspirations of becoiming a pro, read this and other tidbits I offer you about the good,  the bad, and the ugly.     a)  The GOOD  is winning money.     b)  The BAD is losing money.   c)  The UGLY is how you feel if you are GOOD at   being BAD.  ................if you catch my drift.    JOHN PATRICK   

Math Professor
Posted 03/20/06 at 05:32 PM
John Patrick's forum board.

- - -

Someone quoted John Patrick as saying I don't win much but I don't lose much either.
Now he was critical of this statement but there is a reason for it.

- - -

We who have lived with gambling all our lives understand the relationship between what we win and what we lose.
The Equation is simple enough .

- - -

Magnitude of profit is usually a function of magnitude of wagering.
One of the most common failures in gambling is progressive betting.
Several small wins are satisfying but  when the next small win does not happen and it turns into a progression which often recovers the day but sometimes results in ruination.
Giving up on a progression is hard because losing can mean the erosion of several days work.
The gambling flaw is inherent in this.

- - -

Christopher Pawlicki highlighted this fact.
The equation for winning small returns often calls for a progression .
The progression  ultimately however snatches away the prevous wins.

- - -

For example 20 + 20 +20 +20 +20 has been achieved with 50 + 100 + 80 + 120 + 100  The final destructive act is a 100  that does not recover .Even without a progression 100 absorbs the 5  sets of 20 + wins.

- - -

I call this the 20/100 flaw.
20 is therefore 20% of 100. A good result by any standards.
In order to control the erosion of previous wins the ratio of win to wager
needs to be as close to parity as possible.

- - -

Say 80 + 80 +80 +80 + 80  with 100 + 100 + 100 + 100 + 100
If the 100 goes then we still have nearly 4 days work intact.
We can walk away and get them again another day.
Not many gamblers can achieve 80%.
This is the flaw.

- - -

There must be plenty of gamblers here who understand this but any replies should be better than 3 and out .
The math does not work.

- - -

I wondering if we could implement a new section to this forum.
I remember there was a section with the name "elaborate at length" ...
Where you could write long topics with out any disturbing replies and you had some mod function so you could lock the topic and open it when it was finish.

I would like to see this kind of section at this forum board.

Cheers

I can not see the re-install text anymore, so i assume we have dual forum now, is that correct ?

 I recommend the 2-6 method and i recommend the bankroll management in this two documents.
I know pepole with good selection making 3 to 5K in no time at all.

See attach file's ...

First PDF is the one i like the most ...
The second one is a copy of the first one and a littel different read.

I backtrack and find this at gamblers glen

   In the same thread at the meister's forum where I found the Andruchi
system there was also article about another "chaos" system by Vegas Du
de aks Kim Larsen which I also ended up buying. I can categorically st
ate that the system is total pants and quite dangerous to play. I bust
ed out three times using fun money.

So the chaos system by Vegas Dude is mention at Meister's forum that has exist sense 1998 - that is a good sign - then we can read the articel and also backtrack the user.

Continue this soon with more information ....

I will test one of Turbo's dozen system and see if regression can save us from the negative expectation.

I find one way how you can divide the wheel into Quads and see how one clear signature unfold.
It show Repeating Quads, Bias Quads and Random Quads.

Pretty cool.

I find it hard to explain things and been thinking of does nice videos TCS makes.
Now i find a free Deskop Recorder for Ubuntu Linux.

So now i will add videos towards how to play Markov Style ...
Very cool.

Will post a test video first ...

 
Do you know how many times one dozen repeat during 1 milion.

I will fix one computer with RX so i can run the simulation.
Had no time yet.

Bayes say around 13 to 14 hits during 1 milion trails.

If that is true, then i can play even money bets with out losing during 1 milion trails, pretty amazing.
Did one test in the past and i pass 800.000 and now i know why it works.

The probability and match is not 1 in 2 when i place my bets.
I apply Markow Chains Metodology.

If you have time to run RX once for 1 million that would be very cool.
Just to see the blending edge for one dozen to repeat.

-

Forget colours.

Then you have four possibility's.

XXX
XOX
XXO
OXX

The March.

1. Follow the first formation/pattern to repeat.
If not the play that one of the two past formation/patterns will repeat.
Now if you lose then you lose three bets in a row.
Then you continue to bet that one of the previous two will hit.

WWLWWWLWLWWLLWWWWLWWWLLL LW


1
2
2

2
1 W
1

2
1 W
1

1
1 L
1

1
2 W
2

2
1 W
2

1
2 W
2

1
1 L
1

1
2 W
2

1
1 L
1

1
2 W
2

1
2 W
1

2
2 L
1

1
1 L
2 W Now you follow 112 to repeat

2
2 W
2

1
1 W
2

2
2 W
2

1
2 L
2

2
2 W
1

2
2 W
1

2
2 W
1

2
1 L X
2

1
2 L X
2 L X Three loses.

1
1 L
1

1
2 W One repeat of past two formation
2



Chasing for events or regression/correction towards the mean.
I took Bayes document into the observation and calculations with Marigny's principals.

One state is when there is not happening to much with the distribution.
Singles and series of two chop for tiny, medium and long periods of time.
Then we have tiny, medium and long periods of time when larger series show.
In between does we have series of three.

I use one March to catch the regression/correction of larger series to show after singles and series of two chop.
And i use one March chasing to catch does dominant singles and series of two chops.

This is the results with today's random org file ...

Catch the regression/correction (larger series) during 300 trails.

LWWWWWLW
LLL
LLWWWWWWWLWLLWLWLWLWLWWLLWWW
LLL
LWLW
LLL
LW
LLL
LWWLLWLLWWLLW
LLL
LLWLLWWLLWLWLLWLWWLLWWWWLLWWWLWWWWWLWWLLW
LLL
LWLWWWLLWLLWLLWW

This one is the March chasing to catch the singles and series of two's.

LLL
WLWLWLLWWLLWLLWLWLW
LLL
WWW
LLL
WLWLWWWLWLWWW
LLL
WLWW
LLL
WWWLWLWLWW

The first option seams more tight overall, it also show that the strike ratio is much higher then the last option.

So sure there is a difference how you play or base you game upon, selection.
It should be the same, but in this case i am pretty sure it is not.

As the first option is sooner or later due to hit series of six, seven, eight, nine and so on during 300 trails and will produce strings with high strike ratio.
When you pick the last option, then the cycles of does chop has to hit very frequent if you are going to get the same strike ratio as option one.

We could also put it like this, if i was going to play Oscar Grind, then i would pick the first option.
As i would know before i start to play that i would sooner or later would hit larger series if they did not show in the beginning as i have never seen 300 trails with out them.
And if i was to play up as i go, positive progression i would also pick option 1.

-

About even money bets they say you can not gain plus 1 unit flat betting and win more overall then you lose as there does not exist a positive expectation.
We know the game has a negative expectation, but how close can we get hovering around break even point or even reach a positive tram during periods of time playing.

That is a question i ask.
I try out a bet selection with even money bets using the odds 2 against 1 to see how it preforms.

The math behind flat betting is very simple.
Lets assume we say that we try to win plus 1 unit for each session.
Then plus 1 unit has to overcome the amount of attempts we using to achieve plus 1 unit.

With this experiment we use two attempts for each attack to gain plus 1 unit.

Random org 2013 01 16
Flat betting.
20 Sessions.
Win plus 18 units.
Loss minus 4 units.


-2
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1


That was a positive tram ...
Next looks like this ...

Random org 2013 01 15
Flat betting.
16 Sessions.
Win plus 10 units.
Loss minus 12 units.


+1
-2
+1
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
-2
+1
-2
+1
+1
-2


This one is hovering around break even point.

Hello Victor ...

I search for two old topics and can not find them.
One is that you can over all the table accept one number and still win plus 1 unit.
Second one has the name Kasparkow something, it also cover a great deal the table.

Many Thanks

Sputnik