The table was almost full, there was a pure chop chop happening.  Probably about 7 or 8 hands and it was about 25 hands into the shoe.  Sat down, bought in.  Only one available seat next to a guy not many like at all.  He is pretty much a consistent players side bettor, the highest majority of the time.  Nothing wrong with that, but it is his constant obnoxious comments and actions that get under most other peoples skin that are playing.  For example, most people might be on the bankers side with plenty of black and purple chips or larger stacks of green, and he will be on the players  side with the table min to $75-$100 at most.

A typical hand would go something like, players first two card total 1 and bankers first two totals 3.  As the dealer is pulling a 3rd card for the player, he would certainly be saying out loud, 7 or 8–gimme 7 or 8, in sharp loud broken English. 

He is ALWAYS OBNOXIOUS, not one doubt about it!  He is S.E. Asian and talks extremely limited English, but recites numbers and select words well, the rest of his talk is always in S.E. Asian. 

Seriously, no real problem most all the time.  To each his own.  My personal way of acting is, unless I am on a side where everyone is on or I am the largest or darn close to being the largest bettor, I rather not say anything until the hand is over.  $4,000-$5,000-$6,000, etc., on one side collectively, then a sole person wagering &15-$25-$75 on the other side is perfectly acceptable, but why say something before the hand is over hoping everyone losses with considerably larger money than myself?  Compounded with extremely seldom does that guy wager with everyone on a sole side. 

Okay.  But the other night, like I said I believe everybody was on the bankers, several covering the Fortune 7 bet as well. It was 2s and 3s in the beginning 15 hands or so with maybe one single and then the chop chop when I came in, with a couple of ties. I believe there were seven maybe eight chops and a Banker when I bought in just appeared.  I put my bet on the bankers and several others did as well. Others went with the chop for the players side. It was a players, lost my first hand. Of course the guy laughed and talked  something I did not understand. Still no real problem, just normal.

The next hand he does not do anything. Most all go on the bankers because of the chop, a few did not bet. The guy does not wager. It was a Bankers, Still with a consistent chop chop. Now, the next hand. The guy wagers first and immediately starts his small talk; chop, continue, win-win, etc. Most do stay out. A few on the players side. Myself on the bankers and wagering on the fortune 7. The others have no Fortune 7 wager.

Players first two cards totaling 3, bankers first two cards totaling 2.  Mister Obnoxious stands halfway up and leans in a bit and says five, give me five card. Players get an ace. So naturally as the dealer is ready to pull the bankers card, Mister Obnoxious says, monkey monkey monkey coming out.  Okay, the song is definitely playing in my head, I don't know why I came here tonight. I got a feeling something ain't right. I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair.  I actually said those three lines out loud.  The dealer is holding it back, she is making eye contact with me because she knows how Mister Obnoxious operates. 

The dealer is about ready to bust out laughing but controls herself.  Now normally with anyone betting the opposite side, I don't call for cards.  Maybe if I am on the banker side and covering the Fortune 7 and the players having less than seven with the first two-three cards, I might call for a six or seven if the bankers have a zero or one and bankers are drawing their third card. 

But with things going the way it was, I just had to say, give me that 5, yes ma'am give me a 5 please. The dealer pulls the card and put it on its edge and she could see it before we see it and she quickly blinks at me and I can feel it in my heart that it was a five. As she blinked her eye, I immediately said, I got a feeling something ain't right (you know, from the song by Stealers Wheel) and just about everybody bust out laughing because they all got what was gonna to quickly happen except for Mister Obnoxious.

She flops the 5!  Fortune 7 time!  So I say very loud, there it is that 5 you called for, beautiful! And the guy went FRIGGIN Berserk!!! Oh my God, totally berserk. Loud, screaming, yelling and of course all in S.E. Asian. No one answered him, not one person. Dealer was holding it in, very obvious. It was one that I will not soon forget.

 

Found these earlier today stuffed into an old notebook I was going through. 

As most of you know, I was in New York/New Jersey for many years.  One of my primary and favorite properties of the 90's was Bally's Grand, later known as The Atlantic City Hilton Casino. 

Tons and Tons of memories of all kind!  Anyways, I was back there playing Thanksgiving week of 2008.  My host at the time comp'd me a seat in their private suite box  to go and enjoy the Philadelphia Eagles game.  Limo from Atlantic City as well of course.  Remember the casino's butlers from their private suite floor at the casino hotel also there, prepping and serving all kinds of catered in food and beverages.  On the back of my box ID, I wrote down Eagles 48 Cardinals 20.  McNabb threw 4 TDs as well.  It was a cool game, especially for the Eagles fans and it being the home field.  Great memories!

The second one is a 100.00 comp the executive hosts would hand out to use at their gift shop or elsewhere on the property.  Their gift shop had some pretty good stuff in it, unlike most these days.  We got pretty much anything we wanted, within reason, but the executive hosts would walk around and throw these 100.00 'use as you please' self comps on the tables to their players in the high limit room.  Usually 3, 4 or 5 of them at a time to their players.  Again, great memories!

It involves everything a casino must do and does concerning player buy-ins, cash outs, refusals to produce ID, CTRs and SARs, and much more.

The reason I am posting this is because the other night a guy won about $8,000.00 at the table. He bought in for at least $5,000.00 that I saw. He cashed out $7,500.00.  He returns to the table and plays a few hands. Grabs $5,000.00 in purple chips and goes back to the cage. Returns back to the table and I asked him why he didn't cash them out all at one time. Told me he didn't want a CTR created, so he cashed out well under $10,000.00 and the second time gave them $5,000.00 and will get a check in a few minutes for that. So he was smiling and said, he just avoided a CTR. I told him it does not matter he is still getting a CTR filed. Years ago correct, but not no more my friend. $7,500.00 cash and $5,000.00 check equals a $12,500.00 CTR. And probably an SAR for doing the split transaction as well. He told me I had no idea what I was talking about.  (And transactions are most certainly figured cumulatively based upon the casino's 'gaming day' by the financial compliance department, no matter what the clerk at the cage or VIP counter tells you)

Please note as so many argue about and cause drama on the forums, it all starts at $3,000.00 of transactions by the player.

If you click on the link you can read it all.

Here is a copy and paste of just one little section concerning the starting threshold of $3,000.00:

(9)

(i) A separate record containing a list of each transaction between the casino and its customers involving the following types of instruments having a face value of $3,000 or more:

(A) Personal checks (excluding instruments which evidence credit granted by a casino strictly for gaming, such as markers);

(B) Business checks (including casino checks);

(C) Official bank checks;

(D) Cashier's checks;

(E) Third-party checks;

(F) Promissory notes;

(G) Traveler's checks; and

(H) Money orders.

(ii) The list will contain the time, date, and amount of the transaction; the name and permanent address of the customer; the type of instrument; the name of the drawee or issuer of the instrument; all reference numbers (e.g., casino account number, personal check number, etc.); and the name or casino license number of the casino employee who conducted the transaction. Applicable transactions will be placed on the list in the chronological order in which they occur.


The Entire Act Referencing Casinos:

https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-31/subtitle-B/chapter-X/part-1021

By the way, I have several letters from casinos with their inquiries to FinCIN with relation to bills-in (slots) as well as players cards (rating cards) and what is or should be considered a cash transaction. You will be amazed at the inquiries and protocols! I will post some interesting sections of those letters later today.

Research.  Be Creative.  Adapt.  Be Smart.
                            Win! 
      Learn What to do When You Win.

One of the paradoxes of creativity is that in order to think originally, we must first familiarize ourselves with the ideas of others. Thomas Edison put it this way, "Make it a habit to keep on the lookout for novel and interesting ideas that others may have used  successfully.  Your idea needs to be original only in its adaption to the problem you were working on." 

So understand what problems you face and why you face them, that is the research you must engage in to have a clear picture of what you need to adapt.  Adaption is a common and inescapable practice in creativity.

Here are 10 things you should be asking yourself and have answers to.

What else is like this?

What other ideas does this suggest?

Does the past offer a parallel?

What could I copy?

Whom could I emulate?

What idea could I incorporate?

What other process could be adapted?

What else could be adapted?

What different contexts can I put my concepts in?

What ideas outside my field can I incorporate?


Remember.  When you place things in different contexts and situations, your imagination can stimulate new ideas. 

Once again I am talking about sections. Sections are vitally important to understanding more about a shoe Baccarat. Sections, if properly understood and used, will allow you to wager a bit stronger and more aggressively.

Although just about everything in baccarat; wagering, attempting to translate the shoe presentments into triggering time, knowing when you should pounce on it, knowing when to slack off, attempting to detect various right times, etc., will always, always turn into a sometimes event.  Period. They will never be consistent and always occurring type of anything that always comes around at a certain time, after a certain trigger.

Sections on the other hand will be. Sections will happen every single shoe, multiple times. Don't get me wrong, you're not betting on a section you're betting within a section for focus and to control yourself.  The highest majority of all shoes will contain 3 to 5 sections. Sections are defined by a visual line running vertically on the big road of the scoreboard or if you are keeping a manual scorecard, physically. See the examples below.  Sections will define a box. The first section starts immediately. When does it end? It ends usually between 15 to 20 hands. Most all baccarat tables are eight decks of cards which produces right at 75 to 83 hands as a norm, with about 14 to 20 cards reserved in back of the cut card. Each section will be defined by the type of presentments that happened. Chop, 1s and 2s, 4 to 6 repeats, doubles, a streak or other forms of clumping. Again look at the examples below and you will see. Every single shoe must have multiple sections.

Concerning presentments that will be showcased inside of each section. There will always be something there as well as not. This is Baccarat. Presentments are changing up all the time. A few or several of the same, then complete opposites, then the same, then close to the same and then completely the opposite. Sometimes rhyme with reason and lots of no rhyme or reason.

Without Sections defined, most people will say, it's going to continue because it's making it , or it's coming back and a large number of hands are lost with that continual pursuit of sheer fallacy, etc. Or, look at what happened in the beginning and then 30 hands later and now both of those pre-trigger set ups are present, so it has to do it once again. In other words, most all players want an established repeating pattern to appear and then take advantage because it happened that way earlier in the shoe.  And I'm not talking about just a few hands earlier.  I'm talking about 20-30-40 hands earlier or even 50 or 60 hands earlier.  Allowing the scoreboard to accomplish its goal, DISTRACTION and altering the player from getting in the grove, rhyme and reason.

The reasoning. Things, events, triggers, dominations, combinations, out of the norm, clumping, low ties, high ties, etc., all come and go. More of those happen around each other, as well as less than all other presentments which are virtually impossible to follow.  And those that are impossible to follow, are the ones most of us lose at repeatedly.  So, sections will highlight what is actually happening if you can use extreme focus. 

A section will allow you to stay within the highlight offering you a better chance to catch what is going to happen if you focus on it the proper way. A section will allow you to rely less on comparing say the beginning of the shoe and halfway for example and wagering because of what occurred way back around hand 50 or 60, if you concentrate on the section. Such a common mistake and probably the biggest reason casinos installed those electronics scoreboards is for the players to fall prey to all the comparison and what has happened fallacies typically believed, preached and wagered for in the game of baccarat.

Events. Chop, doubles, 1s and 2s, clumping, combinations, streaks, etc. etc., happen in unscheduled and unlimited undefined presentments all the time.  Most commonly at times and other times, extraordinarily sporadically. Your triggered event—if it is actually happening, is presented a very small percentage of the shoe.  A section will highlight what is actually happening if you are willing to be in tune with it.

A side note. Just possibly the reason so many of us do better in the very beginning of the shoe than a continual play. Because we are looking at only what is happening without so many distractions to alter our focus and judgment.  Although, we get hung up on playing because we know certain events we desire might be and can be presented. And those events are the ones that make us the profits that we seek.

So sections are ultra important to focus on. More things and more events and triggers will occur and happen close or closer to another and if you can detect such, you can capitalize on it. If you have a highlighted section it might allow you an additional tool in order to do so.

But what is super vital to be conscious of, is the occurrence of such events. Those events do happen, but not consistently. No, not a contradiction of talk here, but a fact and a warning rolled into one.

Sections will show the neutral, conscious, clear thinking player what is happening as it is happening.  But it is still up to that player to determine what to wager on.  Of utmost importance is the psychological influences imposed upon the player and his ability to not let those influence him (which is extremely difficult) and apply his knowledge, experience and money management method to his wagering, etc.

Capitalize on it and then be ultra cautious of it for repeating itself. Thus allowing yourself to say, hey it happened and I won on it, time for other presentments to occur. Let me focus on what is actually happening rather than what the casino and the scoreboard wants me to focus on.

It is not easy, but in my opinion you must adhere with consciousness of neutrality as much as possible. You must have extreme respect of the shoe presentments without believing you can and will second-guess them with a plan to conquer. Defining that,  I mean 'setting triggers' without seeing those triggers being presented. 

Neutrality and the application of such will allow you to adjust to chop chop, twos, 1s-2s-3s, streaks, cuts after defined events, and defined events occurring after select triggers, etc.  Otherwise without neutrality, you will catch a few and easily give those wins and additional units right back to catch more. In other words, you will lose all/any presentments after and before your triggers that unlike your possible triggered events, dominate all shoes.  The aforementioned happens almost every single shoe with no one ever defining what I just wrote.

I guess what I'm trying to define, is your triggers may not occur, but other events have to, 100% of the time. Your triggers will only be a very small percentage of that.  Think about that as well. 

The other thing is declaring your risk capital buy-in in concrete, set in stone, amount.  Rather than the two all-time buy-ins I witness repeatedly, example; Bringing $2,000 and buying in with say $300 at a time believing you are governing yourself, and another example, bringing say $3,000 and buying in for $1,000 and playing with a frame of mind, if I lose I always have in reserve another two buy-ins, etc. To me, each of those two are working against you and fueling false thoughts, attempts and negative money management method adherence enormously. You will almost always wager with a continual thought, "if I lose this, I can try again with XYZ".

We tend to believe what has happened can and will happen again. We play for it. But, it is wrong and if the event did occur and you caught it once, twice or even three times, in no way does that mean it will repeatedly happen throughout the shoe. It probably will not. It most likely cannot and that is the exact reason notes, writing and score tracking in detail is allowed at all brick and mortar Baccarat tables.

As far as stop losses and stop wins are concerned, please understand what will give you an advantage or not.

First, a stop loss without winning in excess of your risk capital value, must be just that. Your risk capital bought in amount nothing additional. I have experienced over the years as well as countless people I have witnessed doing similar. As I said earlier, "if I lose this buy-in, I can try again with XYZ", is dead wrong, negative and favors the casino, not the player.

Without doubt whatsoever, all of my additional buy-ins that never produced the recoup or a win, are far in excess than those that did. And the amount of additional money for those additional buy-ins would absolutely dwarf the amount that was lost in the ones failing to produce in the first place. Meaning the original buy-in.

The game does not change but your emotions, frustrations and decision making abilities certainly  100% does.  As well, your ego does and because the average player believes he is so smart, successful and could never be wrong, almost all sadly plays the highest percentage of the time in the casinos favor.  That is why you have to realize, when you have a losing session from the start or into a winning session, how to define it and continue or discontinue the play.

Hence, why I say buy-in one time, have a decent draw down amount and play positively to win with progressive parlays, adhere to a money management method and a 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd for your wins.  If it's not working stop without additional buy-ins. Once you engage in additional buy-ins, the 'have-to's increase exponentially and will decrease most all of your chances for winning the session.

Think and play with advantages!

The importance of remaining neutral.

It takes making decisions in the game of baccarat in order to wager.  Making decisions entails many things and so many players never really understand their own process they employ.  One of the most positive, supporting and clarifying things you can engage in for decision making in Baccarat, is neutralism.  And here is why.

First of all this is a very serious subject and one that I think everyone can benefit from, if you understand how and why you make your decisions.

The action is super influential at the table.  People winning, people losing, events happening while repeating and no one is on them, to continue, to stop, etc. And there you are, thinking you were the average and just trying to fit in while keeping to your own agenda.

The other day I was playing and there were all 1's and 2's. It went on for almost half the board approximately 35 to 40 hands. I sit down and as soon as I sat down there was five in a row Bankers with one fortune seven. Everybody else was wagering on the players side except for myself. Just one example.  After that, it went back to ones and twos, but eventually both sides got much stronger and everyone remained winning one or two, while losing several in a row because they were hell bent on the thought of the continuation of ones and twos. 

The other day I sit down and finish the shoe and with the brand new one that first started there was about 10 to 12 pure chop chops and I couldn't get it in my head to keep parlaying and moving my bet back and forth with the pure chop, especially in the beginning of the shoe. Coupled with the majority of the hands losing and wining by one point or one natural wining over the other opposite side having a natural as well. 

Approaching limits. To be limited and something else begins. Because there is certainly deviation in most all shoes and the majority of the times it is multiple deviations, not one or two or even three times.  So misunderstood with the exact ring of failing to believe in and practice, neutralism.

People in my opinion, confuse following and going against the shoe in a huge way. Reread that and understand that sentence.

To me, with the correct mindset, they are both the same way because I am ultimately following only presentments. I am not following a trend or a pattern until after it already happens and if I play that way the highest majority of the times I will not recover what I have already lost in the attempt.

Here is another one from the other day:

BPBPBPBP (then) BBBPPPPBBB (then) PBPBPPP

4 things or 2 things?  Think.  Hands 1-8 chop chop one thing.  Hands 9-17 repeating another thing.  Hands 18-21 another thing, chop again.  Hands 21-23 another thing, starting repeats again.  Or is it two things with hands 1-8 as well as hands 18-21 one thing, all chop chop?  And hands 9-17 as well as hands 21-23 and some after also one thing, repeating hands? 

Learn how and why what you believe the shoe should produce, because in my opinion too many feelings and desires influence most all wagering.

There is a message the scoreboard sends out. This is what has happened. Are you smart enough to wager on what will happen? And to most, that would be the opposite. In someways it is, but in so many ways it is not.

At the table almost always, others will be focused on issues and possibilities opposite what you believe and desire to occur. Something to be totally conscious of, is hitting one or two wagers and allowing that to influence your trend of thought. Remain neutral!  Your most prized possession for so many reasons you never even thought possible.

Neutralism

After much thought, strong reading, thinking, playing, looking back with total open mind, I have finally realized the ultra importance of true neutralism.

Get rid of all the preached bull stuff, ask and ask yourself honestly if you have viewed the occurring event(s) differently, meaning from an absolute neutral position, would it have been much more profitable to you?

Interactions between the results and yourself should be neutral in regards to visual and physical exhibits and feelings.  But usually at the baccarat table it is far from that.

A hand is a trait, consisting of a winning side and the losing side. The physical and behavioral characters so repeatedly affected by the hand must be unaffected. 

Neutrality is the independence for your knowledge and experience, shy of any fallacy and desire, to make judgments and/or facilitate decisions independent of any bias (Fallacy-desire-supposed to be's) which you go along with, emphasizing on the process rather than the outcome.

It is rare but somewhat possible. But implies tolerance regardless of how disagreeable, unusual a perspective might be or not be. So, in neutrality decision making you will be expected to make judgments that are independent of any bias whatsoever, emphasizing on the process rather than the outcome. Why? Because the outcome is forming, But first the presentments and continued presentments must be made. 

So in my opinion and extensive experience, it does best to get away from favoritism from sides and distinct tendency to act upon that favoritism. Why? Because favoritism will promote ignorance, huge bias, double thinking and the simple disability to follow presentments from the shoe no matter the order they are coming out. 

Ignorance, bias and double thinking will, the highest majority of times, not allow you to exhibit neutrality and when you do, most likely you will feel bias and choose not to act on it. A neutral person can be very well-informed and act upon his views with clear thoughts and positive financial thought without being bias into ignorance, decision bias and double thinking. It's that simple.

Therefore the difference of a person with and without neutrality is, that a neutral person can use information, sight and knowledge without being ignorant, not being biased causing double thinking and sway with a quality to his own unbiased thought process. 

NOTE:  Doublethinking.  Accepting both sides as correct. Equality. Viewing both sides equal.  No matter what, no deviation. 

Neutrality requires tolerance. No matter how disagreeable and/or unusual a bias might be presented.  Do not confuse this with a 15 or 18 hand streak of something.  I'm talking about before you get to that point in order to be able to recognize a presentment with its following event, that it just might turn into. 

You must remember, ingrain within yourself, it is the process rather than the outcome. Outcomes must be set aside while the presentments are occurring. They will get you nearly 90% plus of the times.

HIGHLIGHTED NOTE:  Notes, clipboards, stats, pen and paper, etc. etc., that is why it is permissible with notetaking at the Baccarat table!  BE CAREFUL OF THINKING.......'SHOOT, I CAN FIGURE THIS ALL OUT AND SET MY TRIGGERS JUST LIKE THOSE YOUTUBE VIDEOS SHOW', etc.

Neutrality is classically expected to make judgments independent of biases, counting on the process rather than the outcome. But baccarat confuses that. Simply because players confuse themselves. Some will tell you to wager with no bias, others will tell you to wager with bias on the 'deficient' or against the 'too many' for example. Both can be correct and both can be wrong. Often, the difference is incommensurable with no real factual way for pure measurement.  Think about it.

Incommensurable.  NOT ABLE TO BE JUDGED by the same standard as something. Having no common standard of measurement.  Plain English = What happens as a result of something one time, fails to do the same thing another time or several times in a row thereafter or sporadically, but might happen consecutively for a bit. 

Basically in the game Baccarat, commensurability is a concept of science (gambling) whereby theories would be commensurable and we could lay out and discuss those theories to determine almost 100% of the time which one is more valid and useful to be in the winning favor.  The one that won, right alongside the won that lost. 

However, in reality-factual 100% reality, theories in baccarat are incommensurable because all of the reasonings, counts, cards burned through, cards not burned through, events occurred and events not yet occurred, etc. etc., do not sufficiently overlap with any type of complete justification with conceptual framework. Another paragraph read it and understand it!

That is why the gossip and belief happens from empirical evidence favoring one theory over another and inventing the wagers that become muddled, confusing and the winning hands will go on by the way of unforeseen contexts and consequences.

Empirical evidence might be fine in epistemology and law, but in baccarat it should not be allowed at the table!  And it continuously happens over and over and over. 

And if you desire to understand epistemology go Wikipedia it.  Learn the sub fields that make up the theory of knowledge, such as philosophy, ethics, logic and metaphysics. Then, take your knowledge, belief, truth, justification and attempt to package them into a reliable process which will turn acquisitions into true belief which can in turn become a reliable positive process working in your favor while actually wagering on only assumption.

To myself, the value problem is vitally important to assessing the advocacy of theories of baccarat knowledge that are played, preached and talked about.

I go by the following. According to Jonathan Kvanig, an adequate account of knowledge should resist counter examples and allow an explanation of the value of knowledge over mere true belief. Should a theory of knowledge fail to do so, it would prove inadequate.

Knowledge is valuable, but usually used wrong at the baccarat table because knowledge at the Baccarat table is usually absent of all sorts, if not completely of neutralism. Instead, focus on understanding without perception and reason, while hovering afloat between the knower and the mental state of believing.

Think!  Seriously Think!

Success.  Not easy and if it is, it's not really success of any real type.  At least in my experiences anyway. 

Success in Baccarat, seriously not easy. But always trying to accomplish greater, quicker and better wins in new ways, same game.

I spend a lot of time, maybe you do too, thinking about greater profits from the game of baccarat. How can I get those additional profits? Then there are other times when I just think, it cannot get any better the cards are just too slick and as fast as I win it, it will go right back. Okay, a bit exaggerated but point made.

Sometimes I compare myself to others. At different times in a casino, out of the casino, while driving as well as watching TV. Not where I sit and dwell and become envious of anyone or proud I am not them, just a general 'think through' for various reasoning.

But I am what I am. It is what it is. I have the history, I do. I'm sure you do too. I try not to be locked into any certain idea, gambling or otherwise, unless it is working flawlessly. Few and far I admit, but nonetheless.

I don't think I ever said this before but I will put it into clear words. Handling stress and everything affiliated with it; pressure-anxiety-suffering-pain-worry-etc., etc., etc., is something like this.

I think stress is the ultimate feeling to master, tough tough tough. At leaves some people alone, but it hits most of us whether we create it or we subject ourselves to it, more than others. Stress is unrealistic, dismissive, demanding, cruel and certainly ways far in excess than a ton of bricks sitting on your shoulders.

In Baccarat, stress is watching your well-placed Wagers, hard earned money, risk capital buy-in funds, your chips that represent actual cash dollars that can certainly purchase all kinds of goods-services and fully pay bills outside the casino, go from your stack to your wagers to the dealers rack, hand after hand after hand.  That is pure unrelenting stress.

Stress is a gut wrenching, stabbing that radiates from your head, to your heart and right down into the pit of your stomach. Stress blurs your vision, dries your mouth out, stops your brain from a normal thinking process and disallows your hands and feet to remain perfectly still. Stress is strong and stress is uncontrollable to most all of us. Stress pushes us to the limit, as well as beyond the majority of the times when it sets in each of us.

Stress does not flee the body even with a few wins, or once you're to the even point, because stress is real and stress is not a light switch where anyone can really turn it off it will. If it was, it wouldn't be stress at all.

Stress, honestly I hate it. But it's a part of life because of various things I engage in, casino and otherwise. It's okay, my doing. I don't blame anybody. But I have to admit when I do lose my buy-in and risk capital, especially the larger sums, and others say; "better luck" as you were getting up, or "thanks for playing with us", or "don't worry there's always next time", etc., should really just keep quiet because their words are like pouring salt directly into an open wound in my opinion.

I know without stress, there is really no success.  And for myself, I would rather in so many ways talk to, go out to eat with and Q&A someone for hours, that knows the game and what stress really is. Why? Because in my opinion and experience, those people are by far more realistic, smarter and well ingrained with, 'life goes on-improve', type of personality and frame of mind rather than that, 'I'm better just follow me if you really want to win', type of person. 

Seriously.

Paul Newman, The Colour of Money (1986) quote: "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned."

Cara Bertoia: "It's hard to walk away from a winning streak, even harder to leave the table when you're on a losing one."

R. E. Shay: "Depend on the rabbit's foot if you will, but remember it didn't work for the rabbit."

Phil Hellmuth: "If there weren't luck involved, I would win every time."

Wayne Gretzky: "You'll always miss 100% of the shots you don't take."

Terry Murphy: "A gambler never makes the same mistake twice. It's usually three or more times."

Edmund Burke: "Gambling is a principle inherent in human nature."

Baltasar Gracián y Morales: "Quit while you're ahead. All the best gamblers do."

Nicholas Dandalos: "Remember this. The house doesn't beat the player. It just gives him the opportunity to beat himself."

V. P. Pappy: "Gambling is not about how well you play the games; it's really about how well you handle your money."

Understanding the minimum, the average and the maximum wagering and how those fit within a great money management method is not all that complex.

In my opinion, to take your game to the next level you must be smarter, better and focused, while being absolutely 'on board' with your play. If you are not, you will add more negative than positive to your game. I promise you with all my heart that you will.

Besides from the tangibles of a player advantaged money management method, such as bankroll, buy-in risk funds, drawdown understanding, 1/3rd 1/3rd 1/3rd division of your win money, etc., there is a very large part of money management methods which you must understand what your plan is, what your goal is and how you are going to accomplish those.

There certainly are intangible stories behind the numbers that can never be known or in any way guaranteed within any shoe. However you must understand the reasoning behind your play and how you capture the possibilities that are actually opportunities.  So, you must have a targeting focus to get you there.  If you don't, you will most likely fail. 

While bet selection and the frequency of them is very important to winning, without a money management method including a tangible working target incorporating the knowledge of minimum, average and maximum wagering, you are failing to add pure advantage to your play.

Of course, without a doubt we desire the maximum. But you must realize when and why to increase or decrease your wagering.  Along with that, you have to understand there is a pathway to and from the minimum, the average and the maximum wagering at the table.

Your wagering that is lost, will create conflict within yourself. And conflict has a lot to do with playing Baccarat in my opinion. Why? Because conflict will change your frame of mind and how you wager with or without your conscious thought. That is not good for you. Be aware of conflict and how and why it comes about. Stay within your comfort zone.  You can find your comfort zone if you understand the proper use of the minimum, the average and the maximum. 

Conflict is the result of events, usually events that went the opposite way you wanted them to go, or if you were remaining neutral, but had a feeling it was going to be a winning result coming about.  As you witnessed  others at the table begin to prosper nicely, conflict can also come. Be aware.

Conflict is a deep and complex subject and all I did after hours of rereading my notes, was just to highlight the above.

Putting it all together. Realize what is happening, why you are making the decisions you are. Such as, are your decisions from the previous hands, triggers and superstitions, the events themselves? Or, are they from the results you have the deduced down from the other people there playing at the table? Huge difference and huge consequences will come about. I literally promise you that. Learn how and why you do things at the table, you will help yourself to be better, make clearer decisions and be better focused while dealing with the events as a great player should be.

I have learned money management methods properly formed and believed in by players are the absolute most valuable and important advantage to playing Baccarat. A Money Management Method is so much more than a stop loss and stop win for a player. I have written in depth about what a real money management method is and you can certainly find those threads on the forum.

Baccarat tables in brick and mortar casinos have a varied range of minimum and maximum wagering limits. The highest majority of casino properties have limits such as:

$10-$25-$1,000
$25-$1,000
$25/$50-$2,000/$2,500
$25/$50-$5,000
$25/$50/$100-$10,000

Most of the higher limit rooms have a limit such as:

$100-$10,000
$200-$15,000
$300-$20,000
$300/$500-$25,000

There are variations around the country of course, but those above are a good example of the highest majority of properties.

Minimums-Averages-Maximums

You need to think of your bet selection as targeting. Naturally the fewer wagers you place, the less chance you have to lose. But in most all cases, as well as reality, the players drawdown will never be covered by his buy-in risk capital or his available funds. Why do I say that?  Because the highest majority of all baccarat players continuously haphazardly flat bet, grind and attempt to profit multiple times their buy-in without the proper knowledge as well as a good player advantaged money management method.  That's why.  So you must divide your wagers and place them with clear and conscious visual and physical goals within your targets. Reread the above paragraph until you absolutely understand it!

Understanding the limits and your targeting within.

Naturally the first way is to target the table minimum. My tangible thought is, that you will focus on accomplishing at least the minimum without the possible loss of too much of your buy-in risk capital funds. Slowly with little to no stress you make it count with just a little bit of parlay and progression. 

The second way is to target the average, kind of a midway point of the table limits as well as what you observe others doing. Yes, a larger goal and an increase of stress and emotions without a doubt. But if you can achieve the average comfortably, you will end up making a considerable difference above the minimum wagering.

The last target is to be able to employ with confidence, positive wins at risk and within a safe draw down amount, the maximum wagering limit or close to it. This last target must be handled with extreme self-control no matter if you win or lose. This target will place you into a new level but you have to be comfortable with it as well as realize you cannot continually wager it.

So many players as well as system sellers and book authors of gambling, will never agree with me. However, after years and years of observation, playing and realization, I know the importance of expectations, desires and tangibility of each of the three; minimums, averages and maximums. 

THE MINIMUM.

You have to understand each of the three targets and how you can win or lose under each. Maybe the easiest way to do that is comparing each to the status quo. What is the status quo? It is simply the existing state of affairs. The current situation, hand after hand for a small section of the shoe you were actively engaging in wagering on.

So to start with, you target very little. The minimum. Minimum can also be viewed as the default because it is close to zero.

You can certainly think of the targets here as getting onto the interstate and off again fairly quickly from a local side street.  You accelerate to a certain speed, monitor and the readjust your speed and decelerate.  Beginning at the minimum, accelerate to the average and peek at the maximum while knowingly focusing on the soon upcoming exiting points and how to get there.

I'm probably going to get chastised for this tangibility protocol assumption, but not many of us will ever sit down, buy in and begin with the maximum target.

I have deduced down to a tangible definition, we begin at or near the minimum as it is a lower threshold for loss, emotions, frustration and less chance to cloud and ruin our frame of minds we strive (or should) to maintain. For myself the minimum target is used as a default target and to keep me in the game while I pursue the possibilities and opportunities I desire.

THE AVERAGE.

Now about the average wagers at the table. Let's say it's a $25-$2500 table. For sake of discussion let's called the minimum $25-$75 wagers and the average $100-$1000. Why? Because in my opinion that is where most of the players will be at the dollar value of the wagers.  The average bets will be in contrast to the minimums. The reason being is the difference between the targeting of the players, their bankrolls and the buy-ins risked and how aggressive each of us are.

Of course if you desire to wager only the average bet, your buy-in will need to be considerably larger than it would if you only target the minimum bet.

If your style is to accumulate a certain amount of win money before raising your target to average from minimum, then that would be in contrast to those that begin and stay within the minimum target until a certain event comes about and they then proceed to the average target for a select hand or two or three.  Completely different styles of acceptable wagering.  That is why following another is not a very good choice because of conflicting styles and goals.

Concentrating on the average makes perfect sense when your buy-in risk capital supports such with a calculated and followed with full self-control while drawdown when losing occurs. 

If you target the average you must recognize your abilities, buy-in volatility and emotions that will come on harder and stronger than targeting the minimum.  Why?  Because a large set of psychological reasons that confuse the highest majority of players as to their wagering decisions to sustain within their target plays on your subconscious altering you.

THE MAXIMUM.

Naturally if you understand the minimum and the average, you will understand the maximum as well. However I'll throw the following out here.

If you have progressed and target the maximum on a focused basis, you will not have many of the obstacles, the frustrations and negative emotions that other type of players will encounter regularly. However, your bank roll and buy-in risk capital will have to be intensely larger than those that target the average as well as the minimum. 

You will have to be extremely focused on frame of mind and clear conscious decisions, that are impeccably spot on without distractions of any type, or large sums of your buy-in risk capital and your bankroll will suffer in much larger and quicker accumulated quantities than all other players. With no exception. In addition there are little chances of recouping and grinding back to an even status when you play focused maximum.

Of course there are bursts and one time, two time, three time, etc., wagers within the maximum range that can easily easily be sustained, from those playing comfortably within the average. 

I guess what I am trying to say is, that most all people working out would not immediately lay down and benchpress their absolute limit, time after time after time from start to finish for their workout. Wouldn't it be more advantageous to those in attempting a maximum to create the opportunity in order to do the maximum with ease and caution while staying within their safe limits?

Targeting the maximum wagers are intense because of the dollar value. To myself the maximum works well with well-planned transition from the average for a limited amount of bursts, with total conscious thought and the knowledge, willpower and self-control to retreat before being defeated.  At least the highest majority of times. 

In Closing.  Minimum.  Knowledge, patience, understanding the process and a focus to move into the average. Average. Realization with application with comfortable continuance for what allows you to win and the ability to develop a Money Management Method that supports your play. Maximum. Short inconsistent bursts that do not cause you defeat and total conscious realization that maximum is to be highly respected and must be walked away from when you lose without any affect upon yourself.

Mark, if you were to wager $25.00 straight up per number, for say 18 numbers per spin, how would you pick the numbers. 

There are 12 rows of 3 numbers each.  One on each row and another 6 divided?  Or, more on top and bottom or elsewhere, etc.?

Also, would you adjust the numbers to less or greater than 18?

Curious. 

There are lots of ways to wager with as well as, against presentments of a Baccarat shoe. Two extremely dangerous fallacies come to mind that coexist with most peoples play. Read on.

And those coincide with attempting and desiring to beat the game instead of playing along with it. Remember that.

So, let's define what those two are.

1). Hot Streak Fallacy

2). Dueness Fallacy

Both can be very intricate events in all sections within a shoe, one way or another. It is the law of small numbers because regression to the mean will be encountered.  However, events such as chop-chop, 1s and 2s, clumping, natural and then cut or stick, ties and then cut or stick, etc.  You cannot get around them and you are subject to them one way or another.

Hot Streak Fallacy

A biased combination of hands that convinces the player they had found a holy grail and to usually continue with it. In other words, the player takes on an immediate thought process he has 'almost' guaranteed chances of continued wins with further attempts no matter what the presentments continue or turn to doing.  Even after the event is finished. 

While he is winning, all is good. However, those wins usually have convinced the player to continue and stay with whatever was winning. Thus causing the player to give back his wins and subject his buy-in and additional pocket money to quick or eventual loss to the casino. 

Therefore the player puts himself into a false illusion of control which will always have negative downsides.

Can you combat Hot Streak Fallacy? Absolutely. And it is quite simple, I have written about it numerous times. I call it, remaining absolutely neutral. You don't have to give up the camaraderie of being in or on a hot streak at the table, but do remain neutral with complete consciousness about what is going to happen in a short order of time. Do not alter reality of the game of baccarat and its ability to present anything and everything as well as nothing, within the shoe or shoes you are playing.

Dueness Fallacy

The Dueness Fallacy must be likened to the poisson distribution probability.

In short, that is a probability theory and statistics for the distribution of events occurring in a fixed interval of time in space. Example.  1 million shoes of Baccarat, approximately 80 million hands, divided by any number of shoes you wish to get a mean average for the events that might or might not occur. The only problem with doing that, is the mass function of the actual occurrences can never be broken down to replicate themselves in any order that will be representative of a number of shoes you can actually play in a session or many sessions, independently or on going. And that is contrary to what so many absolutely have convinced themselves that they can do.

And while there are a great amount of distribution probabilities within a shoe of baccarat, there will be a few player advantaged events that happen a greater amount of times than others, such as clumping and equalization.

And while those do happen much more than other events in baccarat, you will never be able to identify when, where and how long those events will last or any other event.

So, is something (event-chain of events) really due in a shoe Baccarat? If it is, why and what guarantees that or those events to appear. Years of playing this game provides me with the answer. Nothing does.

From the amount of fortune sevens, to the event of every natural cutting to the opposite side, to the hand after ties sticking or cutting sides, to numerous other events, will never be known when their occurrences will be presented or for how long.

Summation.  Do not fall prey.  Be smart and take advantage when presentments begin without believing the shoe has to do anything at anytime or for a certain period of hands, etc.

Last night, sitting and talking about the game.

1).  Do not ignore the game to its true principles.  And that is exactly what almost all players do because, of their relentless frame-of-mind.

2). Exiting Points.  Know what they are and exactly the definitive number/amounts of win or loss that triggers them. 

3). Ignore the past as total irrelevancy when the fire erupts.  Because if you do not, all you will do 100%  is pour fuel on it.  Guaranteed.

4). The Continuance.  Recognize and be totally conscious of the absolute fact, that as you continue your play you subject yourself to additional losses and wins.  The bridge between your exit point is a 'seesaw'.  (You remember that long wood plank with the two handles on it, in a kids playground it took two to ride).

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.

6). Thomas Paine said, "The mind, once enlightened cannot again become dark". 

The absolute most unintelligent award, goes to..........the Las Vega casino maid that idolizes Daddy, Master and the King!


https://www.yahoo.com/news/las-vegas-maid-stole-768-170236431.html

There is a ton of theories regarding betting systems out there on the Internet. Everything from showing how to easily make one, two or three units, to more elaborate ones that will show how to be successful with triggers after triggers the highest percentage of the times awarding you easy win money with various types of buy-ins.

Every type of system or trigger based on something happening, will eventually lose. In other words, everything will theoretically work until it does not. And every type of betting trigger will fail in the game of baccarat. I promise you that, in fact a solemn promise.

So with that said, now comes reality. I have found a total of eight types up presentments that could be just right for smacking the dealer's rack and winning multiple progressions and parlays, within a Section(s) of a shoe.

Patterns
Trends
Streaks
Dominations
Combinations
Out of norm/First deviation
Clumping
0-1-2-3 low ties

I stand by being extremely aggressive within a section or two of the shoe. Being aggressive means employing positive progressions full parlay once or twice.  I try twice more than once, and I work within a safe drawdown of my buy-in. So on a six time chop-chop or a 6 Time mini streak, both so very common, if I had a $250 initial bet and won I go to $500, win again and go to a $750 pulling down $250 to cover my initial bet. It is only three wins and not rare by any means. Win three more at the $750 level and lose the last one translates into a clear $2250 win for that.  (But the real advantage to following that one is the continuance of additional wins with whatever it was you were doing (5 more, 8 more, 10 more wins?) Or, I would do a $250 initial bet, $500 second bet if won with the parlay, thousand dollar with the third win and then go back to my original bet of $250. Which I call a 1 + 2 win with that full parlay would translate into a $1750 win.  (Only downside is you go back to your initial wager which has huge psychological effects on you if whatever you were wagering on continues).  On my second example, my initial bet is out there one more wager than the first, a total of three. On the first example, my initial wager is out there for the first two bets.

Remember there are 5 key items to this.

Drawdown
Within a section
Positive full parlay Progressions
Power of a section
Be Careful

The grind will get you in the game of baccarat. I promise you that. Is it easy to win two, three, four wagers? Sure it is. Is it difficult to win 15 or 20 wagers, sure it is. Can you win a few, lose a few? Sure. Can you lose a few and win a few? Sure. And right there is why flat betting without the flat bets being extraordinarily large with a very large bankroll, it is extremely tough to make decent money at baccarat.

I'm not getting into triggers here because that is a highly volatile and personal subject of its own. But, I will tell you extreme aggressiveness within a small section(s) of a shoe, is the key in my opinion.

It does not matter one bit that those trends/patterns or triggers will not reoccur over and over, or they are one time presentments.  I follow some of them, so can you.  But do not believe whatever won, will continue repeatedly because it will not.

Where most all players go wrong, is they want an established repeating pattern to appear before they take advantage. But sorry, too late. You may make one bet or two and win but you're going to give it right back and more because it's not going to continue. And the few times that it may continue will never make up for all of the times that you lost attempting to win on whatever trigger you were wagering for.

The huge advantage you can give yourself that will have power, is extreme aggressiveness in the smallest amount wagers and risking as little of your buy-in as you can while having some ammunition for your drawdown to begin profiting.

I have mentioned 'The Stride' before. I try my best to keep it in mind while playing. You will always begin on the black line (see picture). Success is your session goal and failure is your loss of buy-in funds.

Although it will seldom happen, where a player goes straight to success or failure, he will usually hover within the areas between even and success as well as even and failure. Point here, is be conscious of this fact and remain conscious of it while you play. I do believe it has the power to guide you and allow you a better and clearer realization as to what your decisions are producing or taking away from you. 

Successful people do not bring success to a gaming table, but most of the tangible successful people sit down with that attitude close to or at 100% mark, each and every time. But being successful or unsuccessful in many things of your life really has nothing to do with playing the game of baccarat.  Unlike what so many truly believe. 

Success in the game of baccarat for each session we are talking about reaching your goal and winning money. The amount varies from person to person. As well, failure is the loss of your buy-in funds no matter who you are or what goals you have, period.

What so many fail to believe in and remember is, that the shoe is the shoe that will present each and every hand the way it is set to. Nothing can change it or alter it. What does happen and what hurts us are the following:

Emotions

Frustrations

Money Management Methods (Wrong & Lack Of)

An unclear understanding of winning and losing

A failure to leave with win money

A failure to have proper knowledge and use of buy-in versus bankroll funds you are risking

In my opinion, most all players create a huge problem for themselves by judging their courses of action by their outcomes. Often irrespective of the decision making process. That is exactly the point and reason where they go wrong. What it takes, is foresight (intangible), planning (tangible) and a solid base (tangible) to completely and without wavering to adhere to and get what you really want. Because what you want, most always, will not quickly fall onto you or in front of you. And that is why so many players waiver in their decisions and play recklessly.

You have to judge decisions on a process, rather than an immediate outcome as a general rule, bar a few clear advantaged events occasionally that will present themselves from time to time.

Don't get me wrong, you can't totally ignore or push aside clear results/outcomes within a section of the shoe, that are so blatantly positive or negative that can be to your advantage, just use it to improve or change courses of action to your benefit.

Remember, when you sit down, buy-in and get your stack in front of you, you are walking down 'The Stride'.  Where you wind up from there depends on the things I have mentioned herein. 

RANDOMNESS.  What truly is random?  What are advantages?  What are Disadvantages?  How can I use Sections and recognize them? 

To take advantage of opportunity within shoes of Baccarat, you will also have to face adversity (lack of opportunities).

#1). This is a long read!  If you are serious, sit down and read it, absorb it and comment on it.

#2). This is a subject that affects us all, we all have our opinions on it and while some are hell-bent how it affects them, others could care less. But I know that if you understand randomness and its advantages and disadvantages, you can profit nicely from the game.

What may or may not present itself.    And to me, that is the absolute key, the absolute Bac player's advantage.

Randomness and uncertainty can also be viewed as reality and perception as well. 

Understanding and defining everything that might come about is unrealistic.  Although it is usually used as a defense against any type of non-mathematical or statistical result from being understood and used by the theory type of players, but in all reality, it works more so, if used in the correct manner and interpretation.  Meaning, the player has to have the ability, vision and experience to reason with the info and data he is instantly compiling. 

Even as another, whom I believe is a real player at B&M's casinos said on another message board, "87% of all Bac games are 1's, 2's and 3's.  So stay within those 1's, 2's and 3's section and you will win more consistently."  Okay, great theory.  Not easy at all.  What you are really doing is pre-planning and scheduling your wagers, with the presentments of the shoe having to match your desires and planned bets.  You are not matching the presentments of the shoe, just because you figured out what the shoe does the most over so many statistical hands studied. 

I do agree with the 87% figure.  It is just that after so many years of playing Bac in B&M's all over, I just know you might deal with a greater amount of the 13% shoes than you will the 87% shoes.  At least for the time you sit down to play.  As well, even when you are at those 87% shoes, what is to assure you the 1's, 2's and 3's will continue?  You have an infinite bank roll, you have a certain amount of buy in chips to risk. 

Statistics are compiled from pretty large amounts of played shoes.  Just say out of 1 Million Shoes which would be approximately 80 Million Hands played, that the 87%/13% actually existed, true and correct.  That means, 10 Million Four Hundred Thousand hands were not 1,s, 2,s and 3's.  That is huge.  And all that number will do is climb, using 10 Million Shoes or 100 Million Shoes, etc. 

I am not saying do not play or wager for the 1's, 2's and 3's by any means.  What I am saying is that if you consistently do that, along with any other thing in Bac, you will lose and lose everything you have.  There is a time and place to wager 1's, 2's and 3's as well as streaks, pure chop chop, pairs, as well as 1's and 4's to 6's or side wagers or ties or anything else.  Why?  Because they will all come out, every one of them. 

There is no way to assure yourself, that you are within any percentage section of a mathematical or statistical result of the game.  What I gave you above regarding the 1's, 2's and 3's, is just one example of the tens of thousands of systems, advises, info insights, triggers, etc., etc., etc., that is floating around out there about Bac wagering. 

The only things that exists all the time in Bac is randomness and uncertainty.  The players put different spins on each depending on what they are experiencing.  Randomness and uncertainty can also be viewed as reality and perception as well.  Again, just depends on what a player is experiencing with the shoe presentments being made as well as his wagers.  What it really boils down to is, that all wagers are correct as well as, not correct at the very same time.  Just depends on who you are, the winner of the hand or the loser of the hand. 

Baccarat, Probability & Randomness Thoughts

These are strictly my thoughts after many decades of playing the game of baccarat within B&M casinos.

*  The highest amount of people will attempt to apply some type of mathematical and statistical "Mumbo Jumbo" to the game with & while extremely miscalculating math, statistics and probability.

*  Important point: 'It's more random than we think, not it is all random.' Chance favors preparedness, but it is not caused by preparedness (same for all forms of hard work, skills, professions, scholastic degrees, etc.)

*  As much as we want to 'keep it simple, stupid', it is precisely the simplification of issues that are actually very complex, which can be dangerous to ourselves when playing baccarat or in fact, anything to do with casino games whatsoever.

*  Things that happen with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.

*  Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance and it does not matter if that is pertaining to baccarat, casino gambling or in fact, most any type of business.

*  One common theory for why people pursue leadership as well as idols, is because of 'social emotions' which cause others to be influenced by a person due to physical signals like charisma, gestures, and stride.

*  This has also been shown via evolutionary psychology: when you perform well in life, you get all 'puffed up' in the way you carry yourself, the bounce in your step, etc. From an evolution standpoint this is great because it becomes easier to spot the most successful/desirable  person in no matter what you are doing, participating in or even playing within a casino.

*  'The concept of alternative histories is particularly interesting. If you were to relive a set of events 1000 times, what would the range of outcomes be? If there is very little variance in your alternative histories (i.e. You chose to become a dentist and you will probably make more or less the same amount of money and live a similar lifestyle all 1000 times), then you are in a relatively non- random situation. Meanwhile, if there is a very wide range of normal results when considering 1,000 variations (entrepreneurs, traders, etc.), then it is a very random situation.'

*  The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result. (I first learned this in football.  Just because a play you call doesn't work out doesn't make it a poor choice. It could have been the right call, but bad luck. Or vice versa.  But actually and better defined is, that the other team just had something that outdid you or their moves just excelled and yours could not come forward and be probably executed.)

*  Certainty is something that is likely to take place across the highest number of different alternative 'WHATEVERS'.
  Uncertainty concerns events that should take place in the lowest number of them.  IMO, applies to countless things in our lives, not just baccarat and gambling.

*  We have a tendency to see risks against specific things as more likely than general risks (dying in a terrorist attack while traveling vs. dying on your next trip, even though the second includes the first). We seem to overvalue the things that trigger an emotional response and undervalue the things that aren't as emotional.  What I am saying is, that the more spectacular something or some event that we participate in or we are part of, the more our response or perception of that event will be as compared to other events, even of greater importance overall.

*  We are so mentally wired to overvalue the sensational stories that you can realize informational and financial gains by getting an insight or an advantage of some type, etc., that most times it will falsely influence you to make the wrong decision, applies enormously in gambling at baccarat.

*  Every man believes that he is quite different, better, smarter, and as well just plain more valuable than the next.  Almost all of us think that the next man can not offer anything of use, intelligence or benefit to them.

*  It's better to value old, distilled thoughts than 'new thinking' because for an idea to last so long it must be good. That is, old ideas have had to stand the test of time. New ideas have not. Some new ideas will end up lasting, but most will not.  Related very closely to the sensational stories right above this thought.

*  The ratio of undistilled information to distilled is rising. Let's call information that has never had to prove its truth more than once or twice, undistilled. And information that has been filtered through many years, counter arguments, and situations is distilled. You want more distilled information (concepts that stand the test of time and rigorous standing) and less undistilled information (the news, reactionary opinions, and 'cutting edge' research, AKA 'Mumbo Jumbo').

*  There is nothing wrong with losing. The problem is losing more than you plan to lose. You need clear rules that limit your downside.  Almost all people gambling will have the toughest time understanding this as well as applying this to the game of baccarat.  Why?  Because it challenges their intelligence and emotions.

*  Much of what is randomness is timing. The best strategy for a given time period is often not the best strategy overall. In any given cycle, certain places will be dangerous, certain strategies will be fruitful and countless ones if played on a regular basis (everyday) will prove themselves worthless or just plain wrong, etc.

*  If you find yourself doing something extraordinarily well in a random situation, then keep doing what's working but limit your downside. There is nothing wrong with benefiting from randomness so long as you protect yourself from negative random events that will come with the game.  They have to and they will, in complete contrary to what almost all players want, desire or are willing to accept.

*  Randomness means there are some strategies that work well for any given cycle, but these cycles are often short to medium term successes, all of course in time relevance. More importantly, the strategies that work for a given cycle in the short term may not be the best for long term. That is what the masses of baccarat players will not subscribe to or accept and believe.  The same can said for setting huge goals.  Unsustainable and sub-optimal for the long term.

*  Important point: you can never affirm a statement, merely confirm its rejection. There is a big difference between 'this has never happened' and 'this will ever happen.' You can say the first, but never truly confirm the second. It just takes one counter example to prove all previous observations wrong. We never know things for sure, only with varying degrees of certainty.  Which is exactly the way it is.  And when dealing with baccarat, getting 85 wagers correct and 15 incorrect can also be applied and do it without conformation and proof.

*  There are only two types of ideas. Those that have been proven wrong and those which have yet to be proved wrong.

*  Science is speculation. This is important to remember. Scientists are simply creating well-formed and well-educated conjectures about the world. But they are still conjectures that can be proved incorrect by one random event.  Does that mean the other 49 out of 50 was wrong or false?  Same with the theory and the application of mathematics.  As that too may not apply to every situation or event. 

*  It's a difficult standard to demand that you can actually implement ideas and not merely share them (there have been many brilliant philosophers and scientists who have had great ideas they didn't personally use), but is an idea really that great if you can stick to it? Obviously, everyone has different skills and circumstances apply, so maybe someone can use your idea even if you can't. But generally speaking, I think you should be able to live out the ideas you share.

*  Pascal: 'the optimal strategy for humans is to believe in the existence of God. For, if God exists, then the believer will be rewarded. If God does not exist, the believer will have nothing to lose.'  My first thought: Yes, but what if you believe in the 'wrong' God?  Should you play a numbers game and believe in the God most people believe in?  Or, can we safely assume that of the infinite number of possible Gods humans could have designed?  To me, it is unlikely that any of the ones we worship are actually the God?  So, just believe that a higher power exists? Whew. Tough call here.  IMO and only IMO.  But I am writing here and you are reading.  Again, you do not have to believe me or anything I write.  You write and give it a true.  Whew, another thought I had to put out there. 

*  Social treadmill effect: you get rich, move to a better neighborhood, surround yourself with more successful people, and feel poor again.  Then you accomplished a false positive goal and you have to work even harder to move on once again to a higher and a better plateau.  That is why I wrote many things about plateaus and levels, remember?

*  Remember that nobody accepts randomness in his own success, only his failure.  Simple, true and applies to most all of us baccarat players.

*  Skewness and expectations: you can't just look at the odds of something happening, but also the payoff you receive if it works (and the cost of it failing).  A bet on something very unlikely can be smart if the payoff is large and you have rules to limit the many small losses that are likely.  When you hit the win with the huge payoff, you never did anything wrong or negative.  LOL, but so true.

*  Minor stalemates in life can often be solved by choosing randomly. In many cases it doesn't really matter so long as you choose something and move forward.
 
*    We follow rules not because they are the best options, but because they make things fast and easy when others are involved, otherwise it would always be mass confusion, arguments and stalls.

*  Humans are inherently flawed. The cognitive biases that we have are simply a result of how our brains work. Sometimes these biases help us rather than hurt us. But they are always a result of how we are built. That makes them particularly difficult to avoid.

*  We seem to focus too much on local changes, not global ones. That is, we care too much about the latest change rather than the overall trend.  Same as what is happening in the shoe of baccarat. 

*  'Wealth does not make people happy, but positive increases in wealth may.'

*  Emotions are 'lubricants of reason.'  We actually need to feel things to make decisions.  We do not think so, but that is not the way it works.

*  Emotions give us energy and they are actually critical to life in the day-to-day world. In other words, the goal here is not to become a robot who can analyze everything with perfect logic.  If you did, you would have no time to actually employ or live the things you so desire.

*  Even if you know about randomness and cognitive biases, you are still just as likely to fall victim to them.  Which so many gamblers will never ever understand or adhere to.

*  How to overcome these biases? We need tricks. We are just animals and we need to re-structure our environment to control our emotions in a smart way.

*  Most of us know pretty much how we should behave. It is the execution that is the problem, not the absence of knowledge.

*  Do not blame others for your failures. Even if they are at fault.  You executed the move that you failed at, not them.

*  The only aspect of your life that fortune does not have control over is your behavior.

*  Repetitiveness is key for determining if you are seeing skill or randomness at play. Can't repeat it? Not skillful.  It takes skill to realize when that something is there to act on and how you will act successfully on it.

*  "We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible. We scorn the abstract. Everything good 'aesthetics, ethics and wrong, fooled by randomness with us in baccarat, seems to flow from just that."

*  When baccarat players win, they suddenly begin to black out all reasoning, past mistakes and negativity until they begin to lose once again.

You know what is so sad at the bac table, witnessing all those people believing the written hype and B.S. on the Internet!

This is going to be a tough thought to get across, but it set into me the other night right at the active table. And that is, do not get emotionally attached or detached from what is going on. It will probably equal out and most all the times it does, referring to the Players/Bankers winning hand count within the played shoes. How it does, is usually different than the previous time, reference when and how it does. And that is kind of a key factor in successful wager, IMO.  Most certainly there are times it does not, like 40s and 20s or 30s and 20s, etc.  But far greater amount of shoes end much closer, such as a + - 1 to + - 5 range.  Remember that if you are trying to gauge yourself in some type of wagering pattern depending on the count.

There most certainly are reasons why it does but those probably never will be discovered and exposed. As far as how and when the equalization occurs in the shoes being played, that part will always be truly random allowing for all of the reasons why people wager how they do.

One of the problems with all this is the scoreboard, roads and beliefs, all staring you in the face and coupled with your beliefs, thoughts, chips and greed, power overcomes rationale at most every single turn of the game. Simple and I challenge any single one of you to say different.

Can it help? Sure. Can it hurt? Absolutely. And that is the point I am trying to get across.  Thoughts and beliefs are the two single greatest things that will either make you or break you in gambling my friend. 

You have to be able to recognize and be neutral to what and how the presentments are occurring, not for the why.  Just think about, winning. It does not matter one bit why you win, it matters what and how you won.  Remember that.

The true randomness is, what and how the presentments happen/are happening. Not why they did. Once again, you will never ever figure out the why of it. Simple.  Period.

All the writings about fictive this or that, up on losses and down on wins, adhering to random pieces of wishful thinking, etc., etc., which are believed by most to have to be presented, are such total BS it is sad and if played regularly will take your money most every single session. Might be great writing and great hope, but zero advantages and only luggage on your shoulders at the tables.

The most powerful things are, positive progressive wagering and a M.M.M., that includes 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd in your session. 

Chart all the losses you want. Chart all the wins you want as well. Does not mean anything! Never did and never will.  That is what is truly random in this game. What wins one time, loses another or wins again in a slightly different way. There is no telling, no mechanical predicting in any way whatsoever that can make a steady profit. All of the results from tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of hands and shoes will never ever allow the serious player to earn a profit. All those results, triggers and math 'anything' will never be translated into session by session. Never ever.

What does make money in this game, serious money? That is positive progressions that you were able to wager on the side that is simply, winning. Does not matter if it is the side that is catching up, pulling ahead or both sides remaining equal in the hand count. A win is a win. What is your advantage is to be able to win more positive progressive wagers and walk out with a greater amount then your buy-in on a repetitive basis.

An Edge Without A Physical Bias

First, a disclosure. An Edge Without A Physical Bias.  That is what wins the game for me, when I concentrate and truly adhere to all the things I spend time to detail and write about on the board.  Some will go into dialog about my posts are too wordy, too long, too hard to understand, etc.  But, I am very sorry, there is no other way for me to explain as there are just numerous variables I have found that play parts together to make up each session's outcome.  And yes, I do throw in analogies and a few other things as well, you can always skip my threads, no problem. 

Physics?  You just cannot grasp anything to do with it?  Mathematical and statistical adherence to what the pros (the real ones [LOL] you know, they are the bonafide and certified ones) say the test results produced and yet you still lose?  Complete failure to understand anything to do with those?  Perhaps you understand it is sheer greed and if you can only control yourself with a tiny bit of profit you can multiply that by 30 and make a heck of a great living sipping drinks all day and lounging at the casino table without a boss, the way certain members of many gambling forums claim that they do, especially the ones that post repetitively the same short concise statements saying that they do.  You know you actually over-stay every session you play and yet, you still stay when losing no matter how much you already won and when winning, you can never leave---so you are totally convinced that you have it all figured out and will literally beat the casino but somehow you just can't pull it off.  Those are just a few of the scenarios that exist in everyday real life at the casino but there are so many more.

I have spent decades gambling in Brick & Mortar casinos, never on-line.  I have numerous family members in all 3 of the largest gaming jurisdictions of the USA in some type of upper management positions, mostly in marketing or in table game operations.  I know about gaming and I know about players as well, I know about casinos.  IMO, it is no different than a retail store or a service business that has specialties they offer to the industry.  Marketing, salesmanship, industry press releases, perception, what the market will bear, and so on will set the prices, the need, the willingness to support one or more businesses of the same type, the poor quality business and the high quality class act ones as well. 

Stores selling merchandise at below inventory wholesale costs, to attract customers that will usually wind up spending far in excess of what the business would lose if people failure to act on impulse, desire, greed, desire, eye-candy and many other factors of the same nature.  Value has a lot to do with gambling and something few of us actually think about.  Basically, I say when you don't have it or never did, there really is not much value when you actually get it.  Meaning, you don't have the slightest clue what you have because you already have it.  Sounds contradictory, but I plead with you, that it is probably 99% spot on in most every case.  It's just the way our desires, emotions, greed and everything else mixed up inside of us, works and governs each of us at the casino table!  Especially with money and hard assets.

An attempt to understand the casino system and what their largest ammunition really is, would be the understanding of the following:  "People are under the illusion that they can outsmart the system", just by recording and scoring games or thinking their money management system will govern themselves or a host of other pure and sheer fallacies.  And the first part of that sentence holds true to the hundredth power with so many things including; police/detective work, retail offering, and employment background screening investigations, liquor licensing applications and thousands of other things as well!  Once you really understand that sentence and how you look at things you learn, research, attempt to apply and will wager with, then you are starting your journey down the correct path.

But it all boils down to the human brain, with desires, greed, lust and a host of other things along those very same lines.  Fortunately, for the casinos and unfortunately for the players, almost every single one of us has those things instilled in us from a very early age.  It all started with your mom and dad and their 'rewards', for yourself when you were good and those same things taken away when you were bad.  Then you learned how to milk the system and then manipulation you taught yourself without even knowing it.  You found the sweetness of self-rewarding yourself with the 'fruits of your desires', sort of saying.  Each of us has it and each of us deals with that in many different ways, some good and others not so good.

"Gamblers have a stronger misconception of randomness and are so willingly to bet on it". 

Please understand the words, Misconception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate, they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misconception.  I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time. 

The down sides and why there are actually down sides you can detect. Because it is that we get a lot of false alarms.  In the casino, that equates to losses.  In almost everything else, we chalk them up to and use them as rejections, mistakes, learning, improving, necessary happenings, etc.  But in the casino, they equate to devastating losses and missed wins/profits.  That is the key element to the entanglement of your mind and its ability to continue to play, figure out and stick to whatever can win and get away from what cost you not to wager on correct presentments, etc.

Generally, those false alarms are harmless to most, but that is not always the case.  In so many player's agendas, they will convince themselves what is correct to wager upon, as to what is coming out or what has not came out, or what is supposed to happen according to the numbers, etc.  That is the key triggers that so many, most all will fall prey to.  Gamblers place money on those, no matter if they admit or not that was their reasoning.  Some will wager large amounts of money and other will grind it slowly with smaller amounts.  And no matter the value of their wagers, it does not matter.  They will do it repetitively and consistently.  Then they win some or lose some and that does not even matter.  They will wager against whatever they were wagering on that won, then they continue to lose.  Or they lose when they actually convinced themselves, that they were supposed to have won, but they did not follow doctor or wizard, 'so and so', math and stats that proved rightfully correct.  So then they lose their intelligence per-se and they become controlled by their desires, their emotions, and other factors that cannot and will never be able to match with certainty, their wager with each upcoming presentment.  The more they play, the more they lose.  Even when they win, they only fueled themselves with false fuel to keep going.

Then what happens? Well I have observed, that right about the time the people will point to whatever allowed them to feel that they choose the right side by matter of intelligent choice, nothing really existed that will allow them to repeatedly use just that in upcoming presentments that will be a solid 51% or greater positive experience on a consistent basis from thereon out.  Please re-read that and understand that, because that right there is a major key in understanding yourself and the reason for control in the game of baccarat.  And there is a double whammy to this as well.  That is, the strongest patterns and trends are always the worst for most players these days.  Because they challenge the strongest parts and have either convinced themselves or had themselves convinced, that baccarat is a true 50-50 game, a game that always equals itself out and you can prevail if you only wager against anything that is repeating itself or dominants.

Then the losses start, their impulsiveness starts as well.  Reducing or increasing pattern recognition becomes the key to success which will not ever come about the conventional way.  Meaning, by reading the books by the doctors, the wizards, the self-proclaimed professional gamblers, the X dealers and casino personnel, etc.  Buying systems guides or being exclusively mentored and tutored or joining a $50.00 a month elite club of want to be millionaire gamblers, etc.  It will not happen no matter how much you believe that it just might.  Sorry, but that is the cold hard truth of the day.

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the 'Flip of the Switch'.  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, 'all in' wager, or the other one, 'all or nothing', types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.

We give them our money because of our blatantly wrong information, data and beliefs we choose to believe. Almost all gamblers will do the proper research, engage in training, obtain the proper information for almost all their non-gambling activities such as, seeding and fertilize their lawns, sports, hobbies, crafts, etc.  But when it comes to gambling, once again, almost everyone believes in that, 'I can outsmart the system' type of intelligence that will only repeatedly hurt them until they are broke.

What is the, 'Flip of the Switch'?

'Flip of the Switch', is complicated, but for sake of keeping it to a couple of sentences, it is the player's thought process that will govern him with the recognition of patterns, trends, and whatever else he is convinced will be the next presentment from the shoe.  His wagering on that without regards to reality and then being sucked into gambling fallacy, LOCK, STOCK & BARREL.  The gambler has no idea that he actually wagered on his impulse and not on a tangible pattern, trend, or other defined presentment as he was really thinking he was doing.

Hence, 'Flip of the Switch'. In other words, the lights were turned out on the player.  He lost once again.  Simple.  As well, once the action starts, say 4 Bankers appear, half the gamblers next to him just know and say out loud, how it has to cut back to the Players side and begin to wager for such.  The rest of the people there, just know it has to continue and streak with the Banker.  So a switch gets flipped in the person's brain somewhere, changing the way we each define the game.

And when you don't have the experience, the knowledge, the insight and much more, the compelling biases are truly overwhelming, 'Flipping of your Switch', when you are in the game playing, actual play with actual money.  And if you lose and are losing more than you are winning, it is not the auto shuffler, it is not the unlucky dealer, it is not you lost count of the VIN/SAP Counts, it is not the failure of the Banker to continually excel the way it is supposed to, it is not the failure of the shoe to produce an exact replication of those 1,000,000 shoes broken down to the 3 or 5 or 10 you sat down to gamble at, etc., etc., and so on.  It was the fault of your wagering in direct conflict with what legitimately came out of the shoe, no matter if you wagered or not. You were just convinced to wager on the losing side because of the numerous factors I wrote about earlier and those factors turn very quickly into strong compelling biases that almost everyone has no idea what they are or how to figure them out.

And therefore, with yourself deep into biases, you play and play and play and believe compelling biases that cannot and will not hold up on a regular and a consistent basis totaling the majority of your play.  Unless and only unless, you can twist, turn and manipulate the same system that legally, with precision a well-planned entire scenario, relies on human nature to wager with their desires coupled with greed, that governs the player based on their beliefs that wreak havoc on their emotional and financial life.

Some posted previously.  I revisited and merged a few threads of mine and added because of the way so many people (gamblers) convince themselves that the shoe at the table has to do what they desire.  Which is, not to present what it is setup to produce.

Thanks for reading.  Comments, thoughts, experiences?

I had this F7 the other night, actually it was 1 of 3 F7s within 8 hands!  Although not a large limit table, made a quick 3k plus in less than an hour.  Actually fun, non stressful and a good time playing!

This F7 was the 3rd F7 of 3 Fortune 7s within 8 hands.  I had $20.00 on each of the 3.  I already made the two previous ones and there was a group of 4 people clearly wagering against me and one other person playing, of which the two of us were pretty much in harmony most bets. 

Anyway, on this particular one the dealer opens the players cards with two 5s and the bankers cards with a 9 and 7.  She flops a 6 for the players side and people wagering on players side start saying tie.  I stand up and point to the bankers cards and say, "pull".  The dealer, a pretty well versed dealer having maybe a year or so of experience, hesitates and looks at me.  I say, "banker having 6 and players 3rd card is a 6/7 you have to pull for the bankers".  The floor person is right there behind her and is also a very experienced long time dealer says, "pull for the banker".  Of course I am saying, "Ace, 1, Ace, 1" and she flops that Ace you see right there in my picture.  Doesn't happen very often.

I tried to get a picture of all the cards but wasn't fast enough.

I will post the scoreboards and more info in a new thread I am writing under, Every Shoe A World Apart.

  https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11508.0

Baccarat is not true randomness as so many 'expert'— 'experienced' and/or respected writers, authors and players tend to say. Why? True, baccarat contains no consistent and regularly appearing sequences containing exhibited statistical randomness of any type, but does contain events that can be taken advantage of sporadically and/or frequently.

Baccarat is most certainly statistically random in a way because it contains no absolute recognizable and definable pattern and sequences that are the result of events.

But there are non-'absolute' patterns or trends that can be used to your advantage to coincide with a trigger schedule sometimes, key words are-sometimes and non absolute.  But realizing that there are still advantages and pathways to profiting.  How?  Because if you use sections, limiting the amount of hands you play, complete disorder is impossible 100% of the time. Therefore, by limiting your wagered hands and time played you get pathways for possibilities and probabilities to positive results for some of your bets. 

The great debate over the chances of something occurring by any type of event, count, series of presentments, etc., etc., is a subject that is always talked about but with little detail. I will state three definitive ones right here.  Events will produce themselves for several pathways. One is equaling out which is very common. Another common one is the cut. And the third one is the repeat. Those three events that are produced are common and present with regularity.  Learn them and use them to your advantage with positive progression wagers and you will profit with greater possibilities IMO.

Black Swan.  This is where the black swan enters the picture. What is the black swan? The black swan are  events of a major, unpredictable occurrences that come with a swift and widespread impact. Such events are often thought of as purely negative, but may just as likely be positive events. Get familiar with the Black Swan.

There most certainly are drawdowns within a players gambling session. When will a drawdown sit in and for how long and how much one cannot measure, define or expect on any kind of consistent or regular happening. For myself, you have to earmark your buy-in funds as risk capital and have it readily available for your drawdown ammunition. You have to have sufficient drawdown capital to get yourself to the pathways within the shoe that can allow you to profit nicely.

And that to me is why flat betting is almost a sure way to a losing session because of your inability to capitalize on the positive and recognizable hands and/or section that presents itself. And if you do by flat betting, you are lucky to recoup the losses you incurred to that point and if you do, your psych will control your decision making process to curtail itself when you get to that 'even' point. 

There is and always will be losing and winning streaks for all of us within the shoe. ('Streaks' do not refer to back to back repetitive Bs or Ps in a row).  How we each interpret those streaks are temporary and will play with your mind. Thus, affecting your decision making process.  Money, wins, losses, recoups, etc., will affect you, no matter what you want to believe. 

Ever how you choose to label those decisions at the table will affect your wagering but not the presentments and types of events coming out of the shoe. So, in actuality it does not matter what you believe. The only thing that genuinely does matter, is that you are able to wager on the winning events being produced by the shoe.

Back to Black Swans. I have seen them come and go. I have won a ton of money on them because of their forming, being presented and eventual re-appearances.

But after 4 decades of brick and mortar baccarat play, I never 100% found a tangible prediction upon when black swans will come or go. Only when events might occur with such things as, equalling out, cutting or repetitiveness due to events and reasons that lend themselves into the possibilities, that allow myself to wager with parlayed and positive win money on top of the unit I was using to get myself to such a beautiful section of the shoe.

Reality.  There are lots of dreams we all have at the table, but you must keep your dreams real and know how to handle them at the table. The larger and quicker wins or Black Swans will be in proportionately bigger sized wagers and of course with positive progressions.  You must employ different move up limits to place such bets and at the right time. I have and its paid off considerably.

You must be able to identify and use the situations for your favor when it projects itself, not after it is well established because more times than not, when it is clearly present it will be over a lot sooner than you would like. Think about it and realize it because that is reality at the table.

You have to understand that the winning and losing hand values come and go without rhyme or reason in any way whatsoever. No matter what statistical and mathematical reasoning is, they do not regularly and consistently apply to the winning and losing hands. Most will make the mistake of playing for such and such a number of hands because of a reason. However, the same reason you claim something won or continued will just as rocksolid cause the same type of hands to lose. Hence, the casinos allowance of any kind of scoring systems and note taking your little heart desires. 

Great sections can happen absolutely anytime of the shoe. Lots of one-way opinions on this, but it is 100% true anything at anytime can or may not happen at the baccarat table.  Remember that!

You must adhere to your level and plateau when playing except when you are in a winning event or a Black Swan and you have recognized it as well.

Do not play reckless. Playing reckless means you are attempting to wager for what you desire and need to win, instead of wagering with the presentments that are happening, especially when the events are repetitively being presented. Why do you lose in most situations of pattern/trend presentments? Because you did not believe in it. The shoe will produce what it is set to do—nothing to do with what your beliefs are.

Marathon sessions.  Extremely dangerous for most all of us. Be careful. Consciousness, focus and absolute devotion to the events are vital, but you must be able to have the ability to make the judgment needed hand after hand after hand, to make yourself a winner.

Ego.  Extremely dangerous, but on the other hand, the winning hands in a nice beautiful section, your ego might be a wonderful push to 'pounce on it', etc.  Just be real conscious of what you are subscribing to and what can hurt you with your continued wagers. In my opinion, most all wins are given right back to the casino because of one's ego. Over betting, ignoring drawdowns, not employing money management methods and allowing our upcoming future hands to ignore the risk of pending ruin, which is always there for each of us. You better remember that. 

Playing bigger to get even and profit when you are consistently losing or just barely surviving the session. I think it is the most dangerous. Sure it works at times, but unless you are within your initial buy-in realm with plenty of chances and with clear and advantaged reasons, I would steer clear of it. Meaning you are significantly increasing your wagers to get even because of losses you've incurred. Especially when you are drawn down a considerable amount of your buy-in money. This is where false or demanding expectations are adhered to rather than standard and lower possibilities and gathering up nice amounts of win money to use against the casino in sizable, powerful and larger than your normal risked unit with positive progression wagering.

Bearing the above in mind, you must understand gearing down in your session play. Not always easy. Winning, you want to continue and losing, you have to recoup before thinking about quitting. That is the way it goes most all of the time. But, and a huge BUT, it does not always work to your advantage like that. You better think about this and come to terms with it. Winning. When is enough actually enough? Guess that depends on your experience with losing, once you have won considerable amounts. 

To cut a lengthy and complex topic to a streamlined positiveness for a player would be to continually divide groups of win money into three allotments.  Each group would have an approximate 1/3rd allotment; 1) Locked up without any risk to be used.  2) Used with or without your original buy-in amount.  3) Back up wagering money and to be merged with #2, but only when your buy-in is put with #1. 

If you are losing without ever getting ahead in the session, you should most certainly adhere to your original buy-in without justification to draw additional funds and continue. Why? Because your emotional and frustration levels will almost always favor the casinos side rather than yours.  Period. 

Finally and what none of us likes or handles well.  Leaving with your buying lost. Yes, it is tough, extremely tough. But I know from experience the hardest thing I have to comply with, is leaving the casino stuck. Out of the countless times I lost a reasonable buy-in, re-buying in has only contributed to a further loss. The times I did rebuy-in could never account for the make up of the further lost funds I additionally risked, at least on any type of cumulative accounting that is.   
 

We take for granted events will happen as well as events not happening.

And both cost us money, all of us. I was at the casino the other night. Bought in at nearly the end of a shoe, few hands left. Won a few and lost a few. Ready for a new shoe. Shuffle, cut and burn. Shoe began.

Shoe starts, Natural 9 player. So I thought here comes the player dominating in the beginning once again. I bet Banker and lost the first hand. Then a double Banker came and won both. Stayed Banker for the 4th hand, but a strong player came and it was a Banker with a seven and player had zero for its first two cards. Third card for the player was an eight. So floor is quiet and it's just myself and one other player.  Floor person is well-known and talkative. Gives out max comps plus. Comes over and says, look easy game 1-2-1-2. Now lost two and won two. Slightly ahead, since I parlayed second Banker and cut it back for the third Banker that didn't appear.

So we are sitting at the 5th hand coming and wagered Banker, I won. 6th hand wagered banker and won again. Floorman said again, look easy game, 1-2-1-2.

I wanted to wholeheartedly follow that but something inside of me said not to. Why? I don't know.

Granted, anything can happen, pattern/trend or otherwise. But I preach, when it is there to follow it when it's not, don't attempt to change it. 

Also no ties. My 0-1-2-3 no or low ties, was also present, big time. Which to me defines itself as, repetitive presentments and clumping, no matter how winning hands are grouped, etc.  The 3 tangible items present are the following:

1)  Beginning of the shoe;

2)  No ties;

3)  Pattern/Trend clearly present.

So we are sitting on the 7th hand coming:

P-BB-P-BB
 
Won four, lost two. Sitting with a slight profit, very slight from the two wins. I stay for Banker and once again the player comes through with a natural.

P-BB-P-BB-P

I actually wanted to wager on the second player but did not. Once again I wagered banker. And banker won. Wagered again banker and banker won again for another third set of doubles. Such a darn perfect 1-2-1-2-1-2.

Same thing, floorman says easy game 1-2-1-2. Dealer looks at me and she says, 'Glen this is not you'. I'm sitting with three losses, my wins have three of them wiped out. I should have had an easy six wins with only two losses the way I was looking at it. Which would have been the 1st hand and the 4th hand as a loss. I failed to fall into an easy groove is what simply happened. 

Now I continue but go light on banker. Another huge mistake!  Win the next two hands.  So we are sitting at the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB

Lose the 10th hand as after the two bankers a perfect player wins once again. The hand was player had 1 and bankers had a two face cards.  Players third card was a 7 and bankers draw was only an Ace.  So now I am sitting there with 10 hands out.

Lost 4 Players
Won 4 Bankers
Net 2 wins and just a over even

I should have had six parlayed wins, not one doubt. Not one problem. But I fought it and tried to change it, big time.

Not over yet!  Read on. Two more bankers appear, both strong valued wins.  One was a natural and the other one reduced players to a zero and bankers took the easy win.  Now we are sitting at hand 13 coming up looking like the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB-P-BB

Once again I strongly desired player, but stayed with Banker. Didn't parlay at all. In fact I reduced my bet a little bit. Player had a 4 and banker had a 5. Luckily Player drew a nine and banker won the hand. Was not a huge win but a win nonetheless. I stayed, didn't parlay and I couldn't believe what I was actually doing and how I was actually wagering. Player had a 7 and banker had a natural win. So now we are sitting at the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB-P-BBBB

Sitting with 4 losses
Sitting with 10 wins reduced by 4
Net 6 wins

Please Note:  My win was not what it should have been by any means.  Which were positive progressions with a minimum of parlayed amounts, if not greater. 

Now I parlay for the 5th Banker. But a player wins. And with each hand coming I wagered for a subsequent Banker to reappear and I lost the 16th, the 17th, and the 18th hands.  Perfect matching side by side, 4 players right next to the 4 bankers. 

So now we are sitting with the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB-P-BBBB-PPPP

The emotions and the frustrations are inside of myself. Yes, again something else I write about and I know extremely well. But what I am experiencing was my failure to just follow a simple pattern/trend, that was perfect, solid and could have been extremely profitable.

To me, I lost a sure and extremely easy $10,000 plus. I allowed numerous things to take over my wagering decision making. Among those were:

*  Ego
*  Emotions/Frustrations
*  Wagering for what I desired

After the 4 players won parallel to the 4 Bankers, a single banker won. Which was followed by a winning player without a second banker for the first time.

Nothing can be changed. But you can sure follow winning presentments with a handsome positive and energetic motivated play the way I look at it.

The shoe fizzled after the 20th hand with a combination of chop, 1s and 3s, ties and nothing in my book that could be followed or even wagered against with success more than winning 1 and losing several, type of results.

Dedicated because of Asymbac-KungFuBac and others that are serious with the game of baccarat.

It is not always a 'gut feeling'. You have to understand randomness.  Randomness=You can't always follow it, you can't always detect it and most of all, it's hard as hell to follow.  Not by any means easy to visually see at the table while playing, yes I agree.  But you have to, in order to go with it or against it, I believe is the best way to say it.

Okay.  Those that found and play the game of baccarat usually do it because they see the money flow easily from the dealers rack to the players. They witness the smiles, the high-fives, the yelling and the screaming. Of course, there is losing but losing is absolute quiet 99.99% of the times. So many just get up and leave from the table, unless you've been watching them you really don't know that they lost.

And yes, the game can flip to your advantage or your disadvantage so quickly and easily, with such irregular and almost impossible to detect reasoning. That is, without any balance or visual reasoning that makes sense at the time.  But that is part of the randomness that you must understand if you are going to play the game Baccarat.

The problem is, so many think, believe and play with the assumption, that when a certain amount of hands are played, that their success win rate will be greatly increased in their favor.  WRONG!  However, there might be possibilities that can offer advantages, at various times. What they fail to truly realize is just that and play by it. And that is one of the biggest reasons that most will fail to truly realize and profit handsomely at this game.

Math, stats and scientific application cannot be put into a trigger or any type of regular mechanical wagering schedule.  If you do, you are falling prey 100% to the deep and misunderstood results of randomness.

However, a super bright flashing lightbulb above certain presented hands, will allow an experienced player that understands randomness some beautiful advantages. On the other hand, almost all the time, an ugly downside quickly appears and the player gives his winning money plus his buy-in, right back to the dealers rack in order to continue wagering on what just won. And that my friends, is randomness.

There is not one or two things that need to be followed, it's a bit more complex unfortunately. There are numerous things that will add to a players advantage or his disadvantage while playing, that has nothing to do with bet selection. Such as what percentage of your bank roll you buy-in at. Understanding drawdown and using it to your advantage. Applying positive progressions while winning. Discovering your plateau and level and being extremely conscious of them while playing. Those are some of the major and most important ones by far.

As many times as something wins, likewise the times it does not will equal or outnumber the times it does. Unfortunately most will never admit to that or apply that to their game.

Please, I beg you to read the following two threads of mine if you are seriously interested in this game:

*  https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11524.0

*  https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11538.0

Why?  Because of two things:

1)  I care about you;

2)  I know what I am talking about.

Respectfully,
Alrelax

The biggest misconception, by better than 90% of all baccarat players is, that something will or something will not occur because of a math or stat result due to some type of count.  And even if it is not a math or stat result one is using as a trigger, so many will trigger off of such things like-too many Ps or Bs or it's going to cut after a natural or a tie, etc., etc.

There is absolutely nothing that can allow you to set triggers that will be consistent winners with any type of regularity. I would love to see proof otherwise. But in my heart and soul I know there is no such proof that can be produced by anybody.

Any type of event the shoe is presenting, will continue no matter how close to a math or stat count it is or how far away it was when it produced the first hand of the event. That event and all events that the shoe will produce. cannot in any way be altered or influenced by math or stat results. Nor can the presentments be defined by any type of math or stat results.

If you choose to ignore a repetitive event being presented, you are missing great advantaged opportunities that could be in your favor. Likewise, if you continue to wager for that same event to continue once finished or for those to return, you are also hurting yourself and throwing your buy-in and and any win money out the window.

While something is repetitively occurring (no matter if it's back-to-backs or anything else), if you wager with it, you will only lose the last hand when the event stops if you wagered for the event to continue when it was being presented by the shoe.

I have witnessed more losses due to the shoe presenting back to back clumping, say five players-one or two bankers-then six or seven players, etc. Or the opposite with back to back bankers and one or two players and then another group of back-to-back bankers. And when that happens most all are wagering for the opposite side (non dominating side) to start its win and they forgo winning on what is being repetitive. 

The same goes for pure chop-chop and other easy to recognize patterns, does not have to be streaking/back to back, etc.

Trick of Baccarat.  What Casinos Love in Baccarat, Simple Yet So Misunderstood.

There are huge psychological effects the game imposes on the players, while you are losing as well as winning. You better research those, understand them and consequently combat them in your wagering.

So you have to look past those mathematical results, those systems being sold and partially  highlighted all over the internet and as well, published statistical results in order to figure out how to give yourself the real knowledge, you really need to win. 

Why do I say that?  Here, about those 3 things that have and will always be in the casino's favor:

1.  Math.  Because the math will apply only to the total amount of results that it was derived from. Example, 1 million shoes or 80 million hands.  2 million shoes or 160 million hands.  It does not apply to the 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 shoes you are sitting down to play for real money, in real time, for real results. Simple. True. Proven.

2.  Systems.  Because all systems are only selective highlighted events that may or may not happen. Simple. True. Proven.  But every time someone puts a little twist and turn on some type of highlighted system event, it makes it look easy with no downsides.  People are gullible, greedy and ignorant to the true factors of the game and what it really takes to win any amount of money people claim is fool proof or should happen without much downside, if they only buy and subscribe to their system, etc. 

3.  Statistical Results.  Because the statistical results will only apply to the same mathematical conglomeration of tests that were performed. Not to the shoe and the presentments in front of you.  They are not going to be reflected within the 1 to 5 shoes you were sitting down to play with real money, in real time, with real results.

Now, what can a person do to alter what favors the casino?  Several.  One can begin with the following:

There are three types of areas that produce tangible events, that happen during a shoe of Baccarat. Favorable, Neutrality and Negative.

Understand those above three areas 100% and couple those consciously with the four most important factors of playing the game.  Realize that there are areas and factors with total consciousness and application. 

First Factor.  Buy-in/Bankroll.  Your buy-in must be a only small percentage of your bank roll.  A good safe safe percentage would be 10%.  Your bankroll must be restocked before any profits are taken if it's going to be any type of safe sound bank for you to draw from on a repetitive basis. 


Second Factor.  Understanding Drawdown.  There will be drawdown usually quite frequently before (BEFORE) you realize any type of session goal countless times. You must cooperate and realize this and not let it get you into the negative frame of mind, because of the psychological effects of losing part or most of your buy-in, getting into the monetary negative or even losing a whole buy-in amount. 


Third Factor.  Positive Progressions.  Using positive progressions to restock your volume drawdown, lock it up and capitalize on your win money; Is ultra positive in countless ways to your agenda on winning.  You better think about the aforesaid and understand it.  I guarantee you that it is clearly easier to win without negativity whether it's on your buy-in or yourself, psychologically.  Remember that!


Fourth Factor.  Plateaus/Levels.  Understand and acknowledge your plateau and levels with total consciousness and allowing them to guide you no matter if you are winning or losing.

Sometimes I have succeeded and sometimes I have failed, but always I have taken heart from what I have experienced, accomplished or been subjected to.

Put the blinders on, tune out the wannabe fantasies and apply the correct focus employing dedicated one section/one session, combating wrongful belief against current presentments of the shoe.  Just remember, please.  Why? Because the 'anything and everything can and will happen agenda-but with absolute true and complete randomness', and that is what the highest of the highest majority will never ever figure out.  Never.

There most certainly is a path to righteousness, but it is certainly unclear exactly what that path is and how to continuously follow it.  And there is where most all on these forums, as well as at the tables, are seeking to discover and get filthy rich from.  It will never ever happen, because you can't beat randomness with mathematical science, structured into wagering triggers that will prove repetitively positive. 

• Here, a perfect quote  IMO.  Theodore Roosevelt once said about the man in the arena, "whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again because there is not effort without error and shortcoming, but who does actually strive to do the deed, who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at the best knows in the end the triumphs of high achievements and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly".

PART 1

The Internet has done its share of negativity to gambling.

Especially in games like baccarat. Why? Because most everyone wants the 'Google and Find' answers no matter what level they are at. Including accuracy, success and positive results they will have in every session. A complete fallacy but they chase it in every means possible without really focusing on what will help them in my opinion.

Maybe 'Google and Find' works in a great amount of things; How to replace parts, how to work certain equipment, guidelines for troubleshooting broken mechanical things, directions to places, reviews of locations, recipes for cooking, statistics on towns-cities-states and worldwide locations, history of all sorts, corporate backgrounds, etc., etc., etc.  But 'Google and Find' will not offer you the triggers and mechanical wagering schedules most seem to believe really do exist that will offer a continuous and repetitive winning wagering plan.

The Internet does offer a very limited amount of resources to anyone as well as some experienced players that attempt to engage in serious and real discussion regarding gambling. But during the previous years they have fizzled out extremely with ridiculous and childish behavior, that the highest majority seem to engage in on a daily repetitive showing.

However along with all the ridiculous infighting, circle of exclusive friends and drama driven people that only offer one line non factual or insightful and totally meaningless posts, demeaning and humiliating comments, as well as total negativity, so many of the long-term experienced forum players either do not post any longer and simply refuse to engage in forum exchanges with the types I just mentioned. Sad but brutally true!

I have noticed, as well as a great amount of others, there is a much larger amount of rejection and dismissal of whatever experienced and knowledgeable people say these days, both on the forums  as well as at the tables. Why? I would have to attribute it to the masses of people are just not familiar with the 'anything and everything can and will happen agenda-but with absolute true and complete randomness', trying to be explained, shown and discussed.

Since most people start playing Baccarat by some sort of stumbling on the game with no prior research, trial and error or coaching, they are highly subjected to all the systems and easy money selling talk of one type or another on the Internet before those people finally come across a forum with serious members and less drama then all the other ones.

And throwing their good money after bad (lost at gambling and system sellers) money they all experience for a while, they immediately side with so many of the drama driven, one liners, etc. I guess I'm just assuming, it's just their subconscious way of getting back at anything that really makes sense in gambling? 

What is really sad, and I witness it over and over and over again, but so very true, are most being 100% hypocritical of experience, real results and factual findings.