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Why bac could be beatable itlr

Started by AsymBacGuy, June 28, 2019, 09:10:24 PM

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AsymBacGuy

The important thing is leaving the casino with more money in our pockets.  ^-^

as.

Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

AsymBacGuy

I'm astonished to see that people keep thinking that baccarat is beatable by progressive bettings of any kind.

Without a verified edge progressive bettings don't work and can't work, actually they constitute a sure detriment of any strategy. (Variance is greater, vig impact is greater, maybe comps are the only reason to adopt this silly line). 

About the edge.

A possible edge can only come out after having verified it at large datasets and by adopting the same betting amount.

If we'd think that after betting 1, future 2 or 3 or 1.1 or whatever bets involve a better EV we are completely falling into the worst gambler's fallacy territory.

The EV of any method, strategy, system or approach remains the same whether we bet $1 or $200.000 per hand. And per every intermediate category of such a range.

Humans can't read randomness and without the help of math and statistics can't read unrandomness either.
Why?
As the human brain is somewhat biased about 'overalternating' and 'overclustering' patterns where some event or classes of events are mistakenly taken as 'more likely' or 'less likely'.

So we're sure as hell that 'subjective' methods don't make winners but just deluded people.

Most of the times anytime we put a 'subjective' element in our strategy we are just gambling. And gambling is a EV- move.

Notice that gambling forums and internet videos abound of wonderful winning shoes without mentioning or presenting the specular harsh losing counterpart, just in case labeled as a rare 'unlucky' situation that may happen.

Actual card distributions might be relatively insensitive to math and statistical long term findings but they do are to subjective methods in the same way.

To measure a possible winning strategy

Again our old betting random walk friend will help us to find out whether we're doing good or just for a transitory luck's (short term positive variance) impact.

Per every shoe dealt we assume to start at a 0 point, left side is the negative territory and right side is the positive one. Each bet won makes a step toward the right and vice versa for a losing bet.
Alrelax is completely right about this: every shoe is a world apart in the sense that previous outcomes cannot noticeably affect in any way the next shoe.

Obviously such random walk must take into account the ROI, otherwise a simple steady Banker wagering will approach more and more the far end of the right side. 

What is important is that positive steps must be considered under the 'coin flip' multilevel probability classes, what we name as a 'limited random walk'.
For simplicity and according to my unb plans, we consider just two back to back betting spots (that is a way different thing than betting all of the time two consecutive hands). 

Assuming for simplicity a perfect 0.50% winning/losing probability, odds to get a two unidirectional step at either side are 0.25%, so most of the remaining times per every two-bet wagered (for real or fictionally) we'll get a kind of 'balancement' movement where W=L or L=W.
In other words our betting random walk doesn't sensibly move toward any side.

This movement do apply to every two opposite events fighting and the least battle we should be interested at is the B/P distribution as affected by too much volatility.

So 'complex' opposite events taken under the two wagers line mostly move around a 0.75% probability to show up, that is a kind of 'neutral' situation producing the least number of steps toward any side.

As long as the 0.75% or so probability shows up, we can't lose serious money, maybe just the vig when applicable (actually a portion of winning hands will benefit from the B propensity).
The problem remains about what to do when the 0.25% unidirectional probability will come out.

The answer is about the more likely 'clustered-clustering' values happening at such less likely event.

Say A event will fight vs B event.
Most of the times (75%) AB and BA two-step situations will prevail over the AA and BB patterns (25% each).

After a AA or BB pattern had shown up, next event will form either another univocal AA or BB pattern or a more likely AB or BA event.
Let's classify the first AA or BB pattern as 1, AAAA and BBBB patterns as 2 and so on. 

Notice that differently than a simple B/P patterns distribution, many 'complex' A/B patterns involve a way lesser variance than B/P outcomes as more hands are needed to form a A or B pattern.

Therefore BB and PP patterns tend to distribute themselves by a stronger variance than AA/BB patterns.

Moreover BBBB or PPPP patterns (two steps deviating from a more likely albeit proportional course) are slight more likely to show up than the same AAAA and BBBB counterpart and this last feature is more and more predominant whenever we take into account several steps of such kind.
Of course and as already sayed, single shoe productions are finite so anytime a more likely value or class of values are surpassed, we better consider the room left to get the more likely events coming out.

as.
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

AsymBacGuy

For some reasons I'm more inclined to trust people betting serious money at bac tables and undoubtedly Alrelax and KFB belong to this category.

BTW, let me know if any long term member of this site would be interested to get a total free RFB accomodation in a couple of high end Vegas premises or in Montecarlo SBM properties and I will arrange it in a millisecond.

as.

 

Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

alrelax

This year, summertime, we will do Vegas.

I will bring $50k for my bankroll.

I still have a great MGM brand host whom can comp any MGM property for me/us.  I have some insight with some other brands still, some hosts of mine from pre-2017 are gone and others switched properties/brands.

My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/index.php?board=250.0

Played well over 35, 224 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that & more.
 
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

AsymBacGuy

You are the best Al! :thumbsup:

Let's prepare in advance that summertime session hoping KFB will join us!

First dinner it's up on me, my favorites are:

Picasso or Joel Robuchon (French)

Il Fornaio or Canaletto (Italian)

Wing Lei (Asian)

Xavier (Mexican)

Sushi Yiroyoshi (Sushi)

What about your preferites?

as.
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

alrelax

Golden Steer Steakhouse (old school and over the top) (free standing and not casino related) https://www.goldensteerlasvegas.com/

Peppermill (another freestanding and not casino related)
https://www.peppermilllasvegas.com/

Both Golden Steer and Peppermill up by the Wynn.

Spring Mountain Road area, street north side of Treasure Island and west of i15 interstate.  Several places.  Used to always go to one of the local SE Asian restaurants and it was open 24 hours a day.  I posted numerous pictures of the place and food there on the forum a few years ago.  There are a few other real cool places outside the casinos on Spring Mountain Road as well.

888 Korean BBQ
https://www.yelp.com/biz/888-korean-bbq-las-vegas-2.
Place we cook at our table.  Reminds me of the places in Manhattan around 32nd Street off Broadway.  Kind of place we do a 3-4 hour dinner. 

Picasso and Prime @ The Bellagio

Jasmine (Always Always eat there) @ The Bellagio

Old Homestead @ Ceasers Palace

PHO @ Treasure Island

Andiamo Steakhouse @ The D  (yeah yeah, it's downtown but it's fun, noisy and they have 2 bac tables up on an elevated stage like side of the main floor.  Drink some, play Macau style and rip and tear up the cards, just act like fools while winning.  The D is super noisy like I said.  Not the steakhouse, lol. And the steakhouse is suburb!).

There are others, those are just some of the favorites.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/index.php?board=250.0

Played well over 35, 224 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that & more.
 
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

KungFuBac

Hi Asymbacguy

In your post #751 above:

"Of course and as already sayed, single shoe productions are finite so anytime a more likely value or class of values are surpassed, we better consider the room left to get the more likely events coming out...."

I agree and like how you worded this. My personal view is that no matter what we choose to track in a single shoe it is finite and should be treated as always approaching a limit.

For example, let say we are charting or tracking "n": P/B, 2/2s, 1/2s,1/3s,the 8 card,...etc  Fill In The Blank, and as soon as "n" occurs for the first time, there are now only "n-1" remaining in that shoe.

We don't know exactly (though the laws of probability help guide us), what we do know is there is now one less and we just missed number one. Obviously, we still don't know exactly how many will present due to cut and residual cards at the end.
Yes, and this could be that one shoe where an extreme number for a specific multi-card pattern far greater than expectation presents. However, we do know there is now only "n-1" of that just-presented outcome available.
Plus, other patterns with similar-probability or greater-probability, that have NOT had one "n" removed yet, are still just as determined to present at >=their expected levels with less distance now available.

From the cut card onward every card, suite, pattern,  starts becoming n-1,n-2, ...etc as we cycle through the shoe.


Continued Success,



"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

AsymBacGuy

Al: yep Golden Steer at West Sahara (close to the defunct Lucky Dragon casino) is a classic for steakhouse lovers.

I'm curious about 888 Korean BBQ....

What about your preferred list of seafood restaurants?

@KFB.
Nice simple way of classifiying what we should expect and what we actually see at the shoe we're playing at.
I'll be back on this later.

as.
 



Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

AsymBacGuy

Human mind, symmetry and edge

Human mind is somewhat 'biased' by constantly looking for simmetry. Several studies have shown that when subjects are instructed to write down 'random' successions applied to a binomial probability, a sure undeniable 'overalternating' feature affects the results.
More interestingly is that real random objective successions are perceived by subjects 'less random' whereas unrandom successions are mostly considered as 'randomly' formed.

At baccarat the vast majority of people bet along those 'simmetrical' lines (widely intended), at the same time privileging just one kind of asymmetry, that is the 'long' streaks possibility.

Then there are 'foolproof' systems that give the subjective 'guessing' a 0 impact as every outcome  must fall into well restricted ranges.
Those worthless systems are mostly based around several kind of gamblers fallacies that many times are fallaciously(!) overtaken by the best short term move anyone could think of: progressive betting.
Nonetheless objective flat bet findings alone cannot lead to any EV+ with one billion of accuracy.
 
Therefore and simplyfing a lot, a 100% subjective way of considering things is EV-, as well as it's EV- a strict objective system stubbornly looking for precise triggers.
So the 'truth' must be in the middle. At least according to the money we've collected over the years at bac tables.

At baccarat the possible player's edge is a dynamical issue, surely defined after having measured long term flat betting results.

No matter the fkng strategy we are going to utilize, either we'll catch more W spots than L spots (after vig impact) or we are destined to fail.

Mathematically there's no way to 'guess' right by inserting a kind of 'subjective' sole element in our strategy whether bac successions are really random.
The same if bac successions are kind of unrandom.

On the other end, 'obiective' findings that tend to mix many different baccarat productions (card distributions) are sensitive to huge volatility that only in the long term will approach the expected values.

Subjective and objective strategies are two different categories of random walks following the same math laws, sometimes converging into the same betting line and other times negating it.
And obviously there are more likely positive or negative steps converging at a same betting line  than events forming long series of 'outliers' that could be 'heaven' or 'hell'.

For casinos the only tools that matter are the math edge and the several gamblers fallacies affecting almost every player. 
Educated players can overcome such factors.

as.
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)