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[KungFuBac]

I agree albalaha in that cryptos may be a positive investment going forward. However, I think many of the current cryptos will cease to exist ten years from now (if not sooner). I am monitoring a few and continue to like what I see from one you mentioned awhile back: XNO (Nano). In part due to its "relatively" low volatility in recent months.

I'm continuing to monitor the Blackrock application for a Bitcoin ETF as I think investing in it at the very beginning (immediately after its approval). Mainly to give one an opportunity to Short has some potential leveraging options going forward.

Bitcoin gives up gains after BlackRock denies ETF approval report


Continued Success,

[Albalaha]

I am just waiting for upto six months after bitcoin halving. If there is no significant progress in bitcoin and other altcoins by then, crypto will no longer be considered a viable thing.

[KungFuBac]

Thx for your thoughts Albalaha.

I'm also monitoring BITI(Proshares Short Bitcoin ETF) and have already bought a stake in this.

I'm in anticipatory mode waiting to see what the U.S. government decides on the Blackrock ETF application. I believe a leverage opportunity may present if one can jump on the Blackrock ETF immediately after its offering (if it does indeed get approved).

My opinion is that it will as the U.S. Gov wants to control the whole crypto game. This is important when a country wants to prop up its currency (and the U.S. Gov) most certainly does. It's also important to watch gold prices and how Gold is involved in countries' manipulation of their respective currencies.


Continued Success,

[Albalaha]

Bitcoin rushing towards an all time high figure, as I predicted. This year, Bitcoin and some other stable coins which are not in abundance like sand will reach its zenith.

[KungFuBac]

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Approved by SEC, Cleared To Start Trading Thursday1/11/24


I agree Albalaha. Bitcoin will continue with its volatility (Though intrinsic value won't necessarily change in either direction). However, one can still make alot of money investing in bitcoin et al cryptos.
I purchased a very small stake in the Short Bitcoin (BITI) awhile back. I may try to purchase some of Blackrocks' Bitcoin ETF immediately after it opens just to be able to play it both ways(at least once or in the short term). This ETF market will be like the crack cocaine of investing.

IMO it will allow the very early and the very large Bitcoin owners to leverage the market at a fraction of the cost. Huge swings in the years ahead/ they will scalp the small investor.

*A really good read is the book : The Big Short by M. Lewis. This book depicts what happened in the 2008 market collapse in the USA. It sheds light on what the financial markets, hedge fund mgrs, banks, brokers,...etc can  "legally" do and get away with it.

IMO this Bitcoin market will unravel in a similar fashion down the road. Be prepared my friends and wishing you all the best of luck.



The SEC has approved 11 bitcoin type ETFs today and will start trading tomorrow.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/spot-bitcoin-etfs-are-approved-by-sec-cleared-to-start-trading-thursday/ar-AA1mLSGT

[8OR9]

Looks like there will be a very large amount of interest in day trading the bitcoin ETF's..........but a small day trader is at the mercy of large, highly capitalized traders
and you can get really taken to the cleaners trying to compete against them.

[KungFuBac]

I agree 8OR9. Today 1/15/24 Bitcoin is down to 42,600 from a few days ago at 46,900. However, it could just as easily be at 35k or 48k by the time you read this. IMO much of recent runup was due to likelihood for all the ETFs being approved. I think it was already baked into the price, thus, this mild drawback was somewhat expected. Its my opinion if one understands the volatility in Bitcoin(much like day trading and gambling), then one can still make money.

Its my belief that gambling in low SD games such as Bac, Pai Gow, Sic Bo,...etc is actually better. Due mainly that HE is easily known, small variance, and can't be changed nor can the dealer charge us more to place our bet(like our broker or broker co). Plus some of our bets(investments) will put the HE in our favor.

If I go to my broker and say I want to invest 100K. The broker immediately takes a fee of 2.75%(Great I now only have 97,250 invested. THEN, if the stock investment does well they will extract an additional >=3-7.5%. Plus any new investment contributed will also get charged this initial 2.75% fee.

This is why it is so important that we not play at casinos that charge an Ante "up front" win or lose. Casinos in Missouri actually charge a vig up front(W or L) on some games that can increase HE from ~~3% to almost 6%. don't Do That.



Bitcoin is so volatile and hard to value that it's closer to a lottery ticket than an investment, top economist David Rosenberg says

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-btc-crypto-sec-etf-david-rosenberg-gambling-investing-portfolio-2024-1


Continued Success,

[Albalaha]

Bitcoin is at $47k+ today and if things remain like this, within the end of the year 2024, it would surpass at least $80k.

[KungFuBac]

Hi albalaha.

I agree it could continue the upward trajectory. Though my research back before the ETF introduction was that it could hit <= 50,000 prior to <= 4/24. I also feel it could someday hit the ~~85,000 range prior to plummeting once again. I'm most certainly not suggesting it has any intrinsic value. I'm just suggesting it could indeed go much higher and people can indeed make money with it. IF their timing is right.

It's my opinion the artificial manipulation is very clear. Personally, I do not currently own Bitcoin, though I have recently purchased two installments($13.01,$11.50) of BITI (Proshare Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF), which moves in the opposite direction of Bitcoin futures. Its my opinion we will see significant decline in Bitcoin <= it hits 50,000. If I owned Bitcoin I certainly wouldn't leave my positions in an unprotected state as it could move (5%--15%) overnight or within a few days.

The hype schemes from early buyers and large BTC holders is reminiscent of other ponzi-type schemes such as the Tulipmania: About the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble. 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp


Some of the nonsensical headlines I saw this past week include:


Is Bitcoin the new gold? Cathie Wood and Fidelity

Investing in 'Gold'--Via Bitcoin--Is Cheaper Than Ever

Why Bitcoin won't reach $1,000,000 but you should buy anyway

Is Bitcoin the new digital gold




Continued Success,

[Albalaha]

Today, on 14th Feb 2024, Bitcoin is worth $51,544. All who were predicting its downfall and about it being useless or gimmic or having no intrisic value should learn a lesson now. I predicted this well in advance and the reasons for its future rise too. Just wait 5-6 months to see an all time high price, easily going over $80k.

[8OR9]

This is the most well known book on "bubbles" with which I think most people are familiar...........written by Charles Mackay in 1841.

Should be required reading for anyone considering any type of investment.

Seems like the same things occur over and over again....history always repeats


https://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Popular-Delusions-Madness-Crowds/dp/1088149642/ref=sr_1_3?crid=1M1R8L7GA7PLF&keywords=Extraordinary+Pop+Delusion+%26+M&qid=1708037231&s=books&sprefix=extraordinary+pop+delusion+%26+m%2Cstripbooks%2C82&sr=1-3

[ADulay]

Today, on 14th Feb 2024, Bitcoin is worth $51,544. All who were predicting its downfall and about it being useless or gimmic or having no intrisic value should learn a lesson now. I predicted this well in advance and the reasons for its future rise too. Just wait 5-6 months to see an all time high price, easily going over $80k.

So, are you buying now?

AD

[8OR9]

Here is another well known and one of the most widely read books on trading, investment, bubbles, psychology  etc etc etc

Written by "Edwin Lefevre" who was actually famed market trader Jessee Livermore from the early 1900's to the 1930's.


https://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Edwin-Lef%C3%A8vre/dp/0471770884/ref=pd_bxgy_img_d_sccl_1/147-3645017-0530732?pd_rd_w=YXZ24&content-id=amzn1.sym.615d9037-0d71-4715-8421-5695fbf26656&pf_rd_p=615d9037-0d71-4715-8421-5695fbf26656&pf_rd_r=HZ6AS7DYWGEYPE7SZGJ8&pd_rd_wg=KlFpj&pd_rd_r=b715959f-6ea8-43e5-9cc1-5840ed1045d1&pd_rd_i=0471770884&psc=1

[KungFuBac]

Me above:"... Personally, I do not currently own Bitcoin, though I have recently purchased two installments($13.01,$11.50) of BITI (Proshare Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF), which moves in the opposite direction of Bitcoin futures. Its my opinion we..."

I added another tier on BITI (Proshare Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF) this past week at $10.40. I do not currently own any long postions in bitcoin.


Re: Bitcoin halving. Supposedly "halving" is part of the Bitcoin network's code to reduce inflationary pressure on the cryptocurrency and willcut the rewards in half for successfully mining a bitcoin block. this allegedly makes obtaining or mining new bitcoin much harder--has historically preceded bull runs.

    Personally I do indeed perceive a "halfing" is about to occur. In the not too distant future.


https://petergrandich.com/bit-con-take-2-and-many-of-the-crypto-nuts-cult-members-with-it/



I hope all currently holding bitcoin make a bundle (reminder, its always a good idea to take profits). Just like at the Bac table.



Continued Success,

[Albalaha]

I bought it in bits and pieces in various price bands over past 7 years and in good gain as on date. Hope to double it in near future.