+ Register

[alrelax]

The question is surprisingly hard to answer in some ways and in other ways it's really easy. But before I try, let's define what exactly is meant by being random, along with random values from card draws.

When discussing card values from a definitive shoe of six or eight decks of cards, a random card (always the next one) is drawn from a set of possible values, each of which is equally probable in statistical value when matched with another one or two by the rules that might be drawn.  This is called a uniform distribution, because the distribution of probabilities for each value of each hand for both players and bankers is uniform, the same, across the range of possible hand values.  This is because each side has the same possible value of the two or three cards once added together by the rules of the game. Example, Players having a two and a seven equals the value of nine, Banker having a two and a seven will equal a nine also and so on. If there was a situation where a face card was worth greater or less to either side or any other card for that matter, then it would not be an equal uniform distribution of possibilities.

Understandably, some cards may be more advantageous to one of the sides than the other side but the cards still have the same exact value to either side.

Now carrying it one step further which so many fail to do. Therefore I say the probability of each side, players and bankers, have the same random probability to come up with exactly the same hand value as the opposite side does.  Because there will be an unknown sequence of random hand values originating from a true uniform distribution of the cards causing statistically independent events, which are independent in their occurrences due to the rules concerning when a fifth and/or sixth card must be drawn.  The latter is what is ultimately the most confusing part about trying to figure out what side is going to prevail when you are wagering on the game.

Sure there are random variables and statistics that go along with those, but to the person wagering at the Baccarat table, it means nothing because before those first four cards come out, both the player and banker have an equal uniform distribution chance to receive good or bad value cards. This is due to the previous hands as well as the remaining hands yet to be distributed.

What the above means is, the drawing of four or five or six cards and the value of the two or three cards of those for each side, does not make it less likely to occur again in the game in any particular order. Which is exactly why you may get hands 1 through 12 to be pure chop-chop and all of a sudden, hands 13 through 28 to create a 15 card Players or Bankers streak. 

So, why is it so difficult to figure out a given sequence with any kind of consistency in the game of baccarat? Because the shoe actually does in reality produce truly random hands, meaning both sides are equally likely to appear in the short run, 60 to 80 hands to receive anything and everything in no particular order or repeat itself with any kind of consistency within the same shoe or any following shoe. And repetitive consistency with some kind of mechanical trigger is what 99.9% of all players are looking for in the game of baccarat.

And what actually is in the casinos favor, is the shoe will produce sequences that look non-random to the human eye, a series of chops, doubles, triples cut to the other side, natural or ties stick or cut, streaks, etc. and so on. Which all of the aforementioned also fail any statistical tests that we might run concerning the sequence(s)as to why they happened. And that my friend is why there is so much drama in the mathematical and statistical understanding and the application of such to the game of baccarat.

It is impossible to prove definitively whether a given sequence of player or banker hands is going to occur at any time because of such and such or any event that has happened or not happened. The reason being, is the uniform sequence distribution that is available to both sides, not just one.

Everything detectable in baccarat eventually happens without any detectable order of presentment in a shoe because of the unknown order of cards being generated and valued after exposed. Re-read that with the emphasis on the words, unknown order of cards.

So, if it is impossible to predict randomness, what can we do to predict winning hands? I would strongly say, that we should expect some sequences to be perfectly parallel as well as, those that look non-random or simply lopsided. Do not limit yourself to the consistency or the inconsistency as the indication of what to wager. Rather, be alert to the sequences producing parallel or lopsided outcomes and siding with those.

I hope some of you have found this interesting because it took some extra effort to put it together.

As I have said many many times, THINK.

[alrelax]

Some examples of Parallel and Lopsided.

Parallel.  Sequences that are beginning to present themselves showing side-by-side closeness or exact values.  Might be same side or opposite side wins.  The forming of numerous hands of almost anything resulting in 'match ups'.

Lopsided.  Presentations before equalizing out in their process, increasing +10/+20.  Strong section of chop-doubles-triples and/or a mixture of those and then streaking.  Pure chop or close to it and then a real strong 'anything' coming about.  The forming of numerous hands where a real strong 'out of balance' is coming about. 

[KungFuBac]

Ok thanks for clarification.


Continued Success