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[alrelax]

Quote From Asym's Posting:

"Alrelax is completely right about this: every shoe is a world apart in the sense that previous outcomes cannot noticeably affect in any way the next shoe."

Here are just a few to remember and prove the point.

There is always a trigger for one or two wagers, but that trigger will be there now and gone for the next 8 times, or occurring repeatedly for 8 times and gone the very next 8 times it comes around.  Playing a trigger or two for a flat bet or a flat bet with a Martingale either pro or neg, will only get you even in the short run and a loser in the long run, promise.

The profitable way to play baccarat is when something strong comes along, you pounce on it.  And 'Strong' does not only mean a streak of bankers or players consecutively repeating itself.  Make a couple winning wagers, positive progression the winnings and then pull down and stack up a bunch of winnings, lose the last hand when it goes away and repeat.  Then forget what happened and watch for the next 'whatever'.

And, remember you have to lose before you win.  With that said, then you continue.  Furthermore, when you win, you have to know how not to lose.

I really don't think it's a point of knowing how to win, I think it's more of a point of understanding how to win or understanding what winning is about.

But understand that you also have to understand losing. Because you cannot win without losing at times.  Those that say they found wagering 'such and such' after 'so and so' and how they hold a win of 'xyz' each and every time they play, are pure 100% liars. 

[alrelax]

New shoe.  Actual B&M play a few days ago.  Personally, I love this I wrote above: "But understand that you also have to understand losing. Because you cannot win without losing at times." And that means, you can not win every session.  But also it most certainly means, you have to lose hands being played in order to win.  I laugh so incredibly hard when I read on the internet, how most preach their 3 or 4 unit stop loss, etc.  Why?  Because to me, that is absolute insanity as well as employing roadblocks to nice size wins.

Sat down at hand 33. There was an empty table. And hand 33 was the natural player after two back to back players. One tie was out.  My thoughts, 0-1-2-3 ties, shoe usually produces clumps of events and they continue for sections. With that in thought, absolutely spot on in what was happening.

I wagered for Banker and won. Wagered for a second Banker and lost.  I wagered again for the banker for the cut, only one tie out previously and it did cut but also, the shoe was strong in the beginning (Section 1) and it was producing weak events after that (Section  2). Just came off of a 12 chop chop section. There was a few doubles and it was starting to clump again. It was a tie, and it was a three card 9-9 tie, which at the 5-Treasures Baccarat game would've been 75 to 1 for the side bet.  Anyways, I wagered the bankers side after the tie, now was hand 38 coming up. Parlayed the full win for a second Banker and it was a natural 9 Banker over a natural 8 for the players side. 

I cut down about half of the wager and another tie came out. I cut it down a bit more as I did really like the cut to the player side after that third tie came out, but I just felt a few bankers were due because it was clumping up a little bit. I was wrong. I lost the wager. Now several people sat down and a group of four were clearly talking how they were going to outsmart the shoe, etc.

They were all on the players side. One other person was with my way of thinking. He put table max on the bankers and I put about 3Xs what I had in my last wager that I lost. Bankers comes out. Everyone is now hell-bent on the chop chop reappearing. Both verbally as well as their wagers are placed on the players side of course. I wagered the bankers and F7 for $20.00 as well as the dragon bonus for $30.00. I was wagering the F7 for $20.00 since I sat done as well as a few dragon bonuses.  Hit several dragons which pretty much funded my F7s. 

Now here we're go with the next 8 hands and 3 Fortune 7s within those as well as a 3 card 8-0 dragon bonus win, since it's still fresh on my mind.  First picture I snapped is hands 1-52.  I am going to outline below hand 42 through hand 52. 

Hand 42.  9/A players.  10/2 bankers.
          Face card players 3rd.  5 for bankers 3rd.
          Fortune 7 plus dragon 6:1 bonus.

As I always said, I would have to roughly estimate that after a Fortune 7 it cuts to the players about 85% of the times.  I stayed wagering for the bankers and of course everyone continues with extreme confidence on the players side.

Hand 43.  Players natural 9. Bankers 2/face.

I remained on the bankers and neg martingale as well.

Hand 44.  Players face/7.  Bankers 10/6.

I remained on the Bankers with a second negative martingale. 

Hand 45.  Players 3/3.  Bankers 10/7.
An exact opposite of the previous hand.

Cut down a little for the next wager.  Remained hell bent on the Bankers and still felt that clumping up forthcoming. 

Hand 46.  Players 10/A.  Bankers 10/10.
      Players 3rd card face.  Bankers 3rd card 10.

Once again, remained on Bankers with the exact same feelings and thoughts as I did on hand 46. My wager included another $20.00 F7 and a $30.00 Dragon.

Hand 47.  Players 7/5.  Bankers 3/7.
      Players 3rd card 9.  Bankers 3rd card 7.
      Fortune 7. Plus dragon 4:1 bonus. 

Once again, everyone was focused on the chop chop and verbally reasoned it out as they were all placing their wagers on the players side. 

I remained on the bankers while increasing my bankers side wager and keeping my F7 and Dragon bets as well.


Hand 48.  Players 9/2.  Bankers 6/5.
        Players 3rd card face.  Bankers 3rd card 8.
        Bank won by 8.  Dragon 10:1 bonus.

I remained on the Bankers side with the side bets.

Hand 49.  Players 5/5.  Bankers 9/7.
        Players 3rd card 6.  Bankers 3rd card A.
        Fortune 7.  (See picture below, yes a bit
          unusual).

I remained on the Bankers with the same side bets.

Hand 50.  Players 10/5.  Bankers 8/3.
        Players 3rd card face.  Bankers 3rd card 5.

I remained on Bankers with the same side bets.

Hand 51.  Players 9/6.  Bankers 10/4.
        Players 3rd card 10.  Lost.

I remained on Bankers with the same bets.

Hand 52.  Players natural 8.  Bankers natural 8. Tie
          Push the Bankers bet and push the Dragon bet.

Now the rest of the shoe and briefly what happened.  See the 3rd picture below.

Hand 53.  Players 6/6.  Bankers 8/4.
        Players 3rd card 6.  Bankers 3rd card 6.
        Tie.  Lost both side bets.

Hands 54-58.  5 players back to back making up a total of 6 players and 2 back to back ties.  The players hands were strong. Like reducing the bank to zero or 1 on 2 of them and the other 2 non-naturals, the players 3rd cards would increase the players side to a total of 8 or 9. 

The table was all wagering on the players except for me.  I just didn't feel it, especially after the back to back ties and the natural for the players that followed those ties. I lost easily at least $1,500 of my win money.

I remained on the bank and caught all four back to back bankers hands 59 through 62. I parlayed a couple of times so I got back basically what I lost. That is what I meant when I say said before, you have to know how to lose in order to win at times. Please remember that.  Is it a scientific mathematical calculation that is supported by statistical results?  Absolutely not.  But there are other possibilities and advantaged probabilities that you learn from experience. 

The rest of the shoe was ones and twos after those four back to back bankers. I caught a few singles and a couple of the doubles. I did not wager every hand.  Probably lost as many as I won in that last Section of the shoe. 

I won several thousand. I should not have continued Wagering against those players after the F7s and that first set of 4 back to back bankers.  But I was confident on the bank and could not get away from that frame of mind.

It was a nice balance out with the 8 players to the 7 bankers after that second 4 back to back Bankers (hands 59-62), towards the end of the shoe I must say again. If you break it down in Sections as you are playing you will gain a huge advantage along with the other things that I continually talk about and this was a perfect example in so many ways.

Fortune 7s are the bankers wins with the red/blue dots at the 11:00 and the 4:00 positions.  I circled them in the picture for those that are unfamiliar with them.

[alrelax]

Here is another shoe with 4 Fortune 7s from a couple of weeks ago.

Good shoe, good rhythm, excellent flow. 

F7's at hands 19-25-46-72.

See picture 2, there was another playing only banker bets on the top and bottom lines of the Bead Plate.  Every time it would come up adjacent and to the right side.