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[Bally6354]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

Thought I would mention this here as well.

Also known as the 80/20 rule.


I notice it a lot in sport as well. A football team may score two goals very close together or a rugby team puts 20 points on the opposition in the space of 15-20 minutes.

Can it apply to roulette?

There are times you could be playing two dozens using a progression and lose your shirt. Is the casino enjoying it's 80/20 moment?

Other times....you could be betting just 4-8 numbers and hitting every other spin!


Many professional horseplayers have said that their winnings tend to come in spells and at other times they could not back a winner to save their life.

So what would be the key elements to try and take advantage?

Patience

Awareness

Does it then suggest that attempting to pinpoint these 80/20 spells and use some type of positive MM approach will be much more effective in the long run than using a negative progression during lean spells looking to recoup losses quickly?

It would also raise the question of why some people don't consider 'hit and run' tactics effective. Why would anyone not want to quit with a profit if the windows of opportunity are short?



It is certainly food for thought and I am just throwing out there to get some opinions.

cheers

[Tomla]

I without question agree with this theory..... It is as simple as trying to slide thru the bad moments till you hit your time and space of wins. The idea is not to get killed on the lulls.

[TwoCatSam]

Bally

Very interesting.  During my five years at the horse races, I heard that statistic a lot but with no name attached to it.  I figured someone just found it wrote on the bathroom wall.

As to the HAR, I think most people would agree that waiting for the opportune time to strike, striking, and then leaving is most sound.  What some of us can't buy is the Jl method where you walk the dog, eat a hotdog, take off you shoes and cool your dogs and then bet red.  That black is just as apt to come no matter what you do before it comes.  We all know that.

Good post!

Sam

[Sputnik]

Nice topic ...

[Carlitos]

..... lots of time is so happens that the Even Changes come 2 times in an row, 2 red, 2 highs etc...










Carlitos 

[Bally6354]

I was trying to think of ways to take advantage of this 80/20 rule and I remembered what a guy wrote on a now defunct Baccarat forum. He used to look for guys who were losing steadily and would then bet against them.

You would think he would find a lot of opportunities. It might not have made him very popular however.

I always remember a book I read by Andy Beyer called 'The Winning Horseplayer' and he bet in the exotic pools just going for that one big shot and he collected something decent every year which more than made up for his losses.

cheers

[Tomla]

horses and sports I bet on a d'alembert  type principle---w horsies mostly 6-1 to 12 -1 ,,, $1 for a few days, $2 for a few, $3 for a few. Then one day babboom -babbing you hit 3 out of 5 races at 6-1 or better and clear out your losses plus make a profit--back down to $1!!!!!

[Bally6354]

I notice it a lot in sport as well. A football team may score two goals very close together.

like this.....

[attachimg=1]

and this.....

[attachimg=2]





It happens a lot!

Australia put on around 18 points in the last 10-15 minutes of the first half this afternoon in the Rugby League World Cup!

That's why discipline and concentration are so important when you are playing a game like roulette where the casino enjoy the edge. A strong adversary can defeat you or wipe out your bankroll quickly.

cheers

[Bally6354]

.....and now the Man Utd fightback!

[attachimg=1]