It's even more interesting if you turn the picture upside down.

BTC always sinks around halving and goes up heavily. I believe it will again go up by the end of this year reaching new high again. This tanking of price gives an opportunity to add more to your wallet for "average down". Actually, the surge and tank are essential to keep it under trading.
  If it tanks too low immediately and doesn't rise to a new high level BTC will lose lustre.New altcoins like BlockDag and PI could easily replace it being faster and safer way to transfer value.

Full rainbow from the other day!

"The less you bet, the more you lose when you win." – Bob Nastanovich

Well, BTC tanked again today down to: @ (56K) on 5/1/24.

Yesterday was kind of concerning as BTC started tanking. The market boards from several exchanges immediately stopped showing the "Daily" ticker for BTC (& several of the other popular cryptos). Other cryptos tanked too (some 7--15% in one day). The week,month,yr charts were still visible.  So unless one did a deep dive and searched specifically for the current "Day" price one could only see BTC listed when it was @ approx 61k--62K about 12--18hours earlier. One could not see its live price tankishly declining(i.e., tanking)  price as it fell through 61k,60k,59k,58k,57k,..etc over a 12--24hours period.

Then all of a sudden AFTER the regular markets closed at 4pm central the crypto tickers "Daily" charts then became visible. If one clicked on the daily ticker price one could only see a message: "That chart is currently not available, check back later." This went on for hours.

Of course after the market (USA Stock Exchanges) closed then investors could no longer enter a "sell" on their BTC "SHORT" ETFs (Such as BITI) which is one of the most widely held BTC "Short" position. This seems suspicious (Though maybe there is an explanation).

As mentioned in several above posts I own BITI(fortunately I entered "Sale" trades when I initially bought BITI several weeks ago), my 3rd of 5 tiers hit yesterday. This third of five tiers hit yesterday: 20% at a profit of >=20%.
My 4th and 5th tiers now have trailing "sales" stops as I raised both respectively yesterday, otherwise the 4th would have hit for just a 7.5% ROI today.

My perception is that BTC will drop further before it gets pumped up again by the large "whales" BTC holders.

Just my opinion.


Good luck to all investors,

Thx Asym for your essays.

In post #1036 above Asym says:

"...4- Betting two times the same side is particularly powerful when the first (losing) bet was made at Banker side and not involving the singles one/two distribution.  ..."

    I like your suggestion of making only two swipes against an event. It seems many like something similar to a 1-2 negpro(i.e., $100,200). I seldom do a neg progression but when I do its for only two attempts and the first tier is typically 1.0 BU and then 1.05 BU.

The main attribute to this two-attempt approach is that we will often win that FIRST attempt. In cases where I lose the first two attempts @ (1.0, 1.05) my next two attempts going against another event would likely be: (1.7, 2.4). I typically don't chase after that (4 L against 2 events) and any type of negpro after the first few event(s) would be for partial recovery only(Or I would just abort the mission). My premise for not chasing is that I can make up most of the $ from these four failed attempts with a simple pospro on one or two parlays when Im in sync with the Variance.

I mostly live/die by Pos progression and compounding for the simple reason: I don't want to put more money on the table when Im losing.  So this "two-attempt negpro" in my mind is just the right length. Plus we will often get the W on that first attempt.
Just my opinion.


Thx again for your posts.

The core of the problem is not hoping to get a 0.75 A probability standing for long or arranged within too easily detectable terms vs a 0.25 B probability, but trying to approximate the more likely movements happening along any shoe dealt after having ascertained that the bac model is asymmetrical.

A perfect world would consist of endless sequences of AAABAAABAAAB...
In this case the A/B sums will be 0 (before vig) as expected. Yet the less acute player in the world would win a lot of money at this succession.

A nearly perfect world would consist of all A clustered events of different lenght (e.g any AAB sequence would be good), and/or B isolated events (ABAABABAAAABA..etc)
Notice that in both examples the expected equal sum won't be 0 as the B altered pace impact produces negative totals.

Actually most part of shoes dealt will present longer or shorter A sequences than expected by average values (that is 3) and of course B events will pose a real threat when they tend to come out clustered than isolated.

Since the game is surely asymmetrically distributed, the vast majority of the times any single shoe will produce A/B ratios not belonging to a 3:1 ratio, and more often than not the final sum    will diverge by 2 or greater positive or negative values.
Naturally such values are in direct relationship of the number of hands dealt so far, so just to speak, we can't expect heavy balancements after a strong deviation especially if we'd get rid of many hands not belonging to the 1,2 and 3 category.   

More importantly, we should know that a fair portion of shoes dealt will take a homogeneous direction or a heavily shifted direction from the start to the end of the shoe, providing to place a moderate amount of bets. It's when A>>>B or B>>>A
In this instance we have reasons to keep betting the clustered scenario but knowing that it'll be slight more likely to get long A clustered sequences than proportional long B clustered sequences.

So when B predominates, it's better not to bet a dime.

At the other vast majority of occurences, a good rule of thumb would be to place a bet towards A events coming out clustered at least one time, knowing that a strong profitable long term spot will be to wait two isolated A events to show up then starting to wager.

Such probability (along with many correspondent others) will raise esponentially after one, two or more failed attempts, so enticing the use of a progressive plan for people not wanting to wait and having at their disposal a proper bankroll.

Naturally a plan like this works as it wins by a mere flat betting scheme too, maybe encountering some harsh variance times but getting the best of it itlr.

Say that at most situations it's like playing an average 54/46 proposition long term game whatever the side wagered.

as. 

Single shoe totals

It's interesting to notice that a moderate number of selected bets per shoe using the 0.75/0.25 probability of success won't form the classical bell curve results after several trials, instead tending to produce a slight concave upwards curvature around the 0 (neutral) value.
For simplicity we ignore the vig that of course will slowly shift the results towards the left (negative) part of the graphic.

Thus per every shoe played at the end of it most likely total outcomes will be either moderately or heavily shifted towards one side or the another one.
IMO it's an important factor we should be aware when we want to approximate at best when and/or how many times to chase a pattern or to simply let the hands go without our intervention.

More later

as.

BTC will go upward and downwards both and you can see a newer all time high too, in 2024 itself or at Max till the mid of 2025.

Quote from: KungFuBac on April 27, 2024, 02:26:05 AMThx AsymBacGuy. Good thread.

In Post #1033 above:
"...Think about sections containing 6, 7 or more consecutive streaks without no singles and the exact opposite scenario.
Those are natural "strong" deviations that must be balanced along the way, otherwise the game would be easily beatable.

Anyway such balancement most of the time doesn't act symmetrically as the transitory deficit will be overcome by low or moderate changes of direction, privileging opposite short patterns than long patterns...."

For me this "MODERATE CHANGE" being detected early on is the key to seeing it just a split second sooner. This is one of many reasons I prefer to play a shoe from the burn onward/ not after the shoe has started.
Its no different then if someone tells you their blood pressure is 120/80 or their pulse is 72. The values become more important once we learn this persons historical average, and how much it has changed, and in which direction.
Its all about the change.




Continued Success,

Hi KFB and thanks!

I can't agree more on that...

as.