The KFB hypothesis about ties needs a further post to be discussed.
Anyway I agree with him.

as. 

Nice thoughts KFB!!

I totally agree there's no way to beat the house by wagering a lot of hands unless we stay put for a way larger amount of hands dealt.

Besides the HE, it's practically impossible to guess many hands as possible 'triggers' float around steps sooner or later deviating 'too much' from the 0 value.
In such a model, perfect independent productions make no valuable points to be attacked.

At baccarat things are more restrained than what math dictates as each shoe is a world apart and deeply dependent to the actual card distribution.

Is this a "too general" statement to get a possible advantage from?

Bighorn.sh.it.

Anyone knowing the Smoluchowski's 'probability after effects' concept (not mentioning other statistical tools improving such idea) understands that an event or two (or more) events present sd values way lower than binomial independent models, providing to assign an "actual" code to each shoe distribution.

Of course such assumption needs to be stricly measured after testing large samples and we know that it's very important to consider productions under the same shuffling category.

Mathematically we have to dispute the common knowledge that after a given event the next event (or class of events) will get the same probability to appear.
Most of the times this is true, yet at a restricted part of possible outcomes, that's completely false.

Our studies have found out that alternating W/L flows are the least likely to happen or, better sayed, that are the least likely to stand for long, so privileging 'clusters' of something.
We do not know how much such clusters stand but we know they are more likely to happen, especially  when we raise the probability of success by betting two events vs an opposite event.

Suppose that we take care of a X event coming out 5 or more times in a row vs the same event showing up 3 or 4 times in a row.

General probability will say to us that 3 and 4 streak classes (p=0.75%) will be counterbalanced by 5+ streaks (p=0.25%).

From a math standpoint and assigning a 3 value to any 3 streak, 4 to any 4 streak and 5 to any streak equal or superior than 5, then considering back-to-back values we'll get such scenarios:

3-3 = 6
3-4 = 7
4-3 = 7
4-4 = 8
3-5 = 8
5-3 = 8
4-5 = 9
5-4 = 9
5-5 = 10

Each number will add to the next one so forming infinite (actually finite for that shoe) sums   performing pattern numbers slight more likely to happen. Especially after having ascertained that sums are sensitive to previous supposedly more probable situations, best if both two classes considered really happened at that shoe.

Obviously I'm not referring to the simple BP flow (and neither at common derived roads), as this effect is too restricted to be exploited (mostly as B>P so someway enhancing long B streaks).

as.

Mmhhh it appears to be delicious food....

Wine pairing?

I'd suggest a Chardonnay Brut or a Sauvignon Blanc...

Happy New Year!!!

as. 

Quote from: alrelax on December 27, 2023, 03:04:55 AMAs you said:  "b) what is really happening at the actual shoe dealt."

And that is what can be so clear to one person, yet so fuzzy to another. 

Yep.
Following what happens at the actual shoe is paramount (IMO), definitely.

as. 
 

Who we are to dispute the common notion that bac is an unbeatable game?

Answer: because we have managed to assign a code (albeit being imperfect) to each shoe dealt, a code capable to restrict the sd values typical of binomial models.
In poorer words, past hands make substantial variables to get advantage from.

What happened will be first considered by an asymmetrical or symmetrical fashion at different portions of the shoe, then added or substracted to what didn't happen.
Such operation will provide mathematical values (streaks specific lenght) where algos approximate at best the probability that a current state will change or stay and obviously we'll expect a slight greater number of restricted states in amplitude than superior (more deviated) situations.

If the above statement is true (and it will), it means that bac productions are anyway affected by a sort of unrandomness.

Since we consider outcomes under the lens of asym/sym situations, unrandomness doesn't get a univocal way to act, so increasing the probability to form a valuable and consistent amount of low lenght streaks (widely intended).

Proof is the code we'll assign at every bac shoe where some numbers will be slight more likely followed by a specific number or number classes.

as.

Baccarat sequences are made by a mix of random and unrandom events

Besides of specific shuffling considerations, any bac shoe in the universe will belong to a sort of "random/unrandom" (R/  U.R) model.
When the R/ your ratio surpasses an average value (R is too high), there's no way to beat the game: we could be just "lucky", the real thing casinos aim for.
On the other end, shoes affected by a "relatively rare" marked  U.R denominator are heaven, providing to know what to look for.

Think about a binomial independent model, dissect the sequences in every detail and let me know if you'd find a profitable pattern to exploit.
And in fact our algos lose and lose at those sequences: no surprise, randomness can't be beaten, period.

People (experts first) thinking that every bac hand is completely independent from the past occurrences are wrong.
Nonetheless, is not so easy to detect bac unrandomness, mainly because it shows up at different ways per every shoe dealt.

One of the most important thing to look for unrandomness is that it expresses subtly and surely by "complex" patterns.
And naturally we are always destined to ascertain the  U.R by approximating the situations where it should work.

We've found interesting similarities with sports betting: there are infinite variables shifting an outcome, yet nothing will happen for sure.

More later

as.

Thanks for the link!

Minutes? It takes hours to digest all those points 

as.

Algorithms action

Our algos move around two distinct probabilities:

a) what should happen on average and by which more likely ranges;

b) what is really happening at the actual shoe dealt.

If all of the time a>b, well the game wouldn't exist and if b>a it wouldn't be offered either.

Thus per every shoe dealt we have to approximate the different weight of such distinct factors and, no surprise, most of the times a=b or close to it.

Obviously the a=b scenarios are the best to look for and will correspond to an "average card distribution", the main parameter algos aim at.

Algos won't look for strong deviations at either positive or negative side of the operation, they prefer a more likely steady flow of the outcomes, albeit limited at different (so less easily detectable) rhythms of classification.

Yes, card distributions are considered undetectable, everything happens anytime and anywhere but always by a specific level of probability.
And as long as shoes (and cards) are dealt, such probability values will converge more and more to the a) point.

Shoe card distribution

Besides of the important specific shuffle production factor slightly affecting the 'average card distribution' I do not want to discuss here, each shoe dealt will follow or not certain "more likely" "back-to-back" patterns getting different but limited values.

Technically some "random walks" (that is two opposite fighting scenarios) are more limited in their apparition than what a binomial or slight asymmetrical bac model dictates.
That's where algos' edge comes from.

Remember that while playing a binomial game (even if taxed) streaks of something are the real enemy to get rid of.
Obviously no specific streaks classes are chasable better than others even though and generally speaking shorter streaks are more likely to form clustered patterns than isolated patterns.
Especially whether we take into account two or more streaks classes.

But symplifing a lot, the best empirical factor to get an advantage from is that a 'more likely' streak not happening so far shouldn't be included in our betting operation. Regardless of its general propensity to show up.
That means that providing a proper results registration, streaks of low lenght actually happened and coupled together will get very low variance values.
Naturally along the shoe's course things change, meaning that quite often a long streak will erase a previous streak classes flow.

More later

as.

Thanks Al for your advice!
Actually I do not know much about MM as most of our bets are adhering to a flat betting scheme.

On the other end it's very likely that some pros do not adopt a FB approach, maybe increasing their bets (so risking an X bankroll fraction) at spots considered profitable.

As you sayed, for sure bac pros have learnt the attitude to be (almost) totally insensitive to the natural harsh losing sequences they're entitled to face sooner or later.
Easier sayed than done.

as.

Thanks Al and KFB for your replies!!!

Professionals

It's very likely that in recent times there are more professionals at baccarat than at black jack and, for that matter, bac pros are taking an advantage at least 10 times fold than poker players as vig and tournament fees do not account for a mere 1% or so HE, being way more than that.

Consider that bj players must bet each hand, fearing to get casino's heat while raising the wagers (if card counters). In addition actual rules make bj tables much less profitable than in the past.

On the other end, poker is particularly sensitive of volatility being either the important need to face inferior skilled players and to endure a natural negative variance that can last for long.

At baccarat we can't rely upon a math edge or taking advantage of possible inferior skilled poker players, we are just forced to deal with dynamic probabilities. Whenever we wish, with the amount we wish knowing that casinos consider bac players as pure donators.

Pros get their profits after having ascertained that not every couple of considered fighting events will follow a binomial independent (unbeatable) probability.
So an infinite sequence of bets made at a given event apparition must be superior than the counterpart at levels capable to invert the HE.

The deeper we're investigating the factors conditioning an A vs B event apparition, greater will be our probability of success, so transforming a supposedly random world into a kind of unrandom and more detectable world.

Think that shoe's results include several "simple" and "complex" steps:

-Simple steps are B and P apparitions classified by singles and streaks and streaks lenght.
It's the main tool the vast majority of players use.   

-A further classification consider how many times singles and streaks come out clustered or isolated.

- Then we should assign a value about the clustering class: clusters of one, clusters of two, etc.

- Building some sub successions where some clusters are slight more likely than counterparts as the shoe card distribution can't be uniformly shaped so enticing a general more probable line.

- Comparing such general "more probable" lines with the actual shoe we're playing at, favoring a kind of asymmetrical transitory probability getting at least a +1 step.

If a proper rhythm of considering outcomes is assessed, some values will be slight more likely to happen than counterparts and that's where our edge comes from.

That has nothing to share with the B general propensity and its related pattern situations.
What we need is to approximate at best the actual card distribution getting some spots more likely to show up than others.

See you next week.

as.

Unlike what so many believe, preach and swear by, the longer you stay at the tables, the more you play and/or employ the repetitive mechanical wagering beliefs, etc., will only add up to guaranteed loss.

This statement sounds as the pure proof that baccarat remains an EV- game, isn't it?

as.

Hi Al!

I reckon that 99% of the bac players try to follow trends, hoping that something will prolong until one unfortunate event will stop a possible winning streak.

Let me know how many 5/5+ streaks come out on average at every given shoe dealt.
I guess they are showing up by a nearly 2/32 probability, the remaining situations belong to a 30/32 intermediate world.

Obviously a very experienced player is capable to grasp the subtle spots where things would come out clustered or not, it's a very difficult task to achieve and that's why 99.9% of bac players donate their money at the tables.

as.

Consistently winning at baccarat is very hard, let's say (almost) impossible.
In fact there are no ways to beat itlr a fair coin flip succession (EV=0), let alone a taxed A/B succession where winning bets are payed 0.9894:1 or 0.9876:1.

Itlr at baccarat winning sequences will be almost equal than losing sequences but the payment will be always and invariably unfair.

Yet only apparently baccarat reproduces infinite coin flip successions for each shoe featuring slight dependent events that do not correspond to a perfect binomial probability. And by now the B propensity is not taken into account.
This is the only tool to focus our attention about.

In fact each outcome has a slight relationship with the previous results, very often not detectable but sometimes getting values capable to erase and invert the HE.

In other words, general more likely lines will surely be taken, providing the actual card distribution doesn't deviate too much from such expected values and, more importantly, when we can build subsuccessions tending to negate the perfect independency of an A/B model.

One of the best examples I can give is about streaks lenght.
Streaks lenght is one of the simplest and more reliable tool to approximate the actual card distribution of a given shoe.

Naturally BP Big Road streaks cannot give valuable hints to set up a plan upon and neither are the common derived roads. (Actually they do but being burdened by a lot of volatility).

In fact what we need is a plan capable to get more "expected lines" than we can, at the same time putting this plan in relationship of the actual shoe distribution.

That is the streaks lenght distribution is one of the best tool to assess if our future bets will be in touch of the rare EV+ field or simply belonging to the more probable undetectable whimsical world we can't do anything about.

Approximating a distribution doesn't mean to bet randomly and 'hoping for the best', just getting a hint about how the clustering effect may or not be working in the shoe's portion we're interesting at.

Remember that even at BR and common DRs, heterogeneous streaks (e.g. streaks of consecutive different lenght) cannot show up at the entire shoe. Unless very very unlikely long streaks come out at the same considered succession.

In some way, when a long streak shows up it's because something went wrong at initial two-card math favorite situations, in fact long math favorite two-card favorite situations constitute a way limited part of the whole results' scenario.

And since long streaks must catch up a more likely shorter streaks world by coming out clustered, we should put a stop when a long streak shows up, so waiting for a more likely streaks class/classes coming out clustered. Very often dictating us to consider a shoe as an "unplayable" shoe.

Say that after having built a given subsuccession we're considering doubles, triples and 4 streaks.
We'll merge such different streaks into the more likely possible categories: 2-3 and 3-4.
5 and 5+ streaks will be considered as "enemies" and actually most part of them deny the two-card math propensity.

Since we need to approximate the outcomes distribution, we'll consider 2-3 and 3-4 clusters and the 'isolated' 5/5+ streaks apparition.

It's now that the clustering effect (being a by product of more likely card distributions) makes a role as the number of 5/5+ clustered streaks will be more restricted than the number of "long" 2-3 and/or 3-4 clusters.
With some experience anyone could see that a supposedly "more likely" category (2, 3 or 4) that hadn't show up so far, shouldn't be included into the playable classes.

Finally, back to back shoes NOT providing a decent number of 2-3 and 3-4 streaks clusters are very unlikely to happen.
On the same line, 5/5+ streak events coming out clustered are again very unlikely to happen.

Providing a proper registration of the outcomes rhythm.

as.

Back to the BP hands problem.

Positive and negative patterns lenght

Generally speaking at baccarat betting toward "too long" positive sequences constitutes the same mistake as betting against "too long" negative sequences.
In fact a long term profitable plan must take into account the way more probable intermediate occurences as there's no way to know when harsh negative patterns will stop, let alone when branded positive patterns should overcome some "limits".

As humans we try to stop our plan after one, two or more negative occcurences then restarting the action after one (or more) fictional winnings, but when we simultaneously consider two or more mechanical plans, we'll see that sh.it is more condensed than we could imagine of. Invariably sequenced by more probable steps.

Think deeply of what I'm talking about now.

Casinos love long streaks and long homogeneous patterns as they give players the false assumption that those situations will overcome the negative "less detectable" counterpart.
Actually it's the main tool why HS rooms are built upon: hoping that players will feel "lucky" at some point. In the meanwhile casinos will collect. Well beyond the math edge.

Since HS players are pure donators and the reason why baccarat is the second best game casinos have to separate money from their customers (despite of a tiny math edge), we ought to think that playing against their hope is the recipe to win some money.

Algorithms cannot magically erase or invert a negative HE, they just provide spots where "luck" is more restrained than what players (and casinos) hope for.

And there's a rule that casinos particularly like: more hands are wagered, less dependency acts so enticing a kind of undetectable world.

This has nothing to share with the HE: casinos do not want to get $50 or so per every $5.000 wager. They want us to lose our bankroll faster than possible, confiding that the "unlucky" world will harshly overcome the "lucky" less likely counterpart.

Yes, mathematically each bet, no matter how's deeply investigated, will be EV-.
Actually and for the reasons already traced, it can't.

Say we're applying a given mechanical system: itlr singled and doubled situations will be balanced by the opposite longer negative situations and vice versa.
Naturally it'll be more likely to get clusters of 1/2 than getting consecutive clusters of 3+/3+s.
Then isolated 3+s situations than isolated 1/2 events and so on.

Now pretend to build two simultaneous diverse registration lines getting the same properties but getting a different rhythm.
You'll be surprised to see that a math "undetectable world" won't be so undetectable and again singles and doubles apparition will overcome the remaining possibilities.

See you in a couple of days.

as.

Hi KFB, thanks again!!

0-value cards are very important in almost any side bet construction (a relative exception is the decisive 6-0 two-card B point) as they entice the draws of either side.
So increasing the number of cards utilized to form a final hand (see above).

More likely F-7 card combinations are:

- 0s and 7s
- 0s, 3s and 4s
- 0s, 5s and 2s
- 0s, 1s and 6s

0s and 7s account a nearly 4x probability to form a F-7 than any other three card combination and obviously two 0 cards are needed.

In some way and simplyfing, best situations to look for are when the final portion of the deck is poor of 8s and 9s and rich of 0 value cards and 7s.
Those are very rare opportunities to encounter but involving a wonderful edge.

as.