A fun test question.  Let's pretend that one of the systems/methods/strategies on the board has an edge

The player has a 6% edge, and plans on playing off and on over a period of several days for a total of 10k spins.   (I don't care about or want to know how the edge is obtained, and who's method it is.  This is not a debate about whether a system works or not.)

  The player's starting bankroll is $1,000.  Which player will likely win the most money, and receive the most attention in the form of sex and love from his/her spouse or friend.  Player 1,2, or 3?


1. The player flat bets $50 every spin on the top numbers.

2. The player bets 1% of his bankroll distributed over his best numbers?  (His initial bet is only $10 in total.)

3. A player that runs an aggressive up as you lose betting progression 5,10,20,40,80,100,200?

Number one, two, or three?

QuoteYou've just refuted your own statement. If reality is inherently unknowable then how do you know THAT? There's a big difference between not knowing and saying that reality is INHERENTLY unknowable, which is a philosophical statement, and an incoherent one at that.

The fact is, like many other system players, you're confounded by randomness and so feel the need to make subjective decisions in the belief (and hope) that they will serve you better than "objective" decisions based on math and statistics. But there's no way to square this circle because you cannot make subjective decisions and expect them to give you better results than objective ones. Why? because in order to get an edge there must be some objective reality which gives you that edge. If "what works for me may not work for you" then OBVIOUSLY your wins are due to luck, not an edge.

But those who recommend this subjective approach always have to be vague about just what their "triggers" are. There was a guy who used to post here called XXVV who advocated using intuition as a way of picking his bets. He said intuition was using reason to the Nth degree, whatever that means. But when pressed to be specific about their actual bets and the triggers they use, the "subjective betting" advocates either avoid telling you, or if they do it's shown that they confer no edge whatsoever. I'm not saying that they are deliberately trying to deceive, and sometimes I'm sure they're sincere, it's just that because they haven't done proper testing (because they lack the required knowledge) they're deluding themselves.

And it's partly arrogance. Why do so many gamblers believe that the math doesn't apply to them? Why do they think they're so much smarter than anyone else and that the experts can be ignored? Maybe it's fear of something they don't understand, so they lash out at anything which looks like "theory".-Mike

Above is a well written post, by Mike (brilliant poster), that pretty much sums up reality.  All the experience in the world of baccarat doesn't make a player a better guesser, or improve their edge if they're not already playing a mathematically perfect game designed to exploit certain inefficiencies within the game.  The math doesn't lie, but players sometimes exaggerate, have very active imaginations, and at times just make sh^t up. 

There are no symmetries/asymmetries patterns or flows that can be exploited if the math says that they don't exist.  Anything that says otherwise is just word salad.  Math and probability are not opinions, and they don't care about your experience or your feelings.  In the long run...the game is never beaten, but the dealing procedures and side bets can be utilized to exploit inefficiencies...producing an edge for the skilled AP.  (Sort play, edge player, side counts, hole carding, etc...)

For those people that believe that the secret to winning is in patterns, symmetry, and flow, one word comes to mind."HUBRIS." 

Any Southern California Players Here?

Anyone on this board playing in Miami FL?

Note to strategy testers:

When you test your methods, you must carefully define the testing parameters.  You can't hop back and forth and change the rules as you move along with your demos.  You can't say, "If I would have done this then I would have won that, or if I would have had a stop loss here, then I would have won that."  Such testing formats are annoying, pointless, and it's nothing more than curve fitting.  Below is some advice that will make the process more enjoyable, valuable, and less annoying to forum members.

1. List the rules in advance.
 
2. If you're going to have a stop loss, then define exactly what it is.

3. Carefully explain how you're selecting the numbers on which to bet.  Provide a link to a specific page that describes the rules of the system, not several pages of rambling posts.

4. Test statistically relevant sample sizes.  Testing just 50,100 or even 200 spins at a time is silly.  You can't look back and say that such a small test is proof that you should have made any changes whatsoever!

5. Get to the point.  Less is more.  Don't ramble on and on and on.  People are annoyed by long rambling posts, and they will often ignore them.  Also, don't make up bullshist terms in a vein attempt to make your system sound more scientific than it really is.  If you must use jargon, then define the jargon terms at the bottom of each post. 

6. Run out of sample tests.  One positive result isn't enough. 

7. If you change the rules, then you must restart the testing, and restate the new parameters.

8. If you're going to put your system out on a public forum, then you should be willing to accept some criticism.  Don't block comments once you've presented the method...it's weird.

Best of luck.

-Xander

Does anyone here frequent the Aqueduct Casino?

Anyone in AC right now or this week?

Why does time even exist?  A million heads in a row, and entropy.


http://www.break.com/video/why-does-time-even-exist-2622003

Quotehave developed a certain gambling philosophy over the years. One of the basics of that philosophy is to take advantage of those times when I have a winning pattern going for me. And one of the ways I do that, take advantage of the good luck, is to keep playing.
The majority of people come into a casino and when they get lucky they quit to soon. They start out with a couple of hundred dollars, win $500 and walk out with the feeling that they have scored a tremendous victory over the casino. Those same people will come back time after time and drop $50, $100, $200 each visit, and without realizing it they still aren't ahead when they do get lucky. Because they quit playing too soon. Vegas casinos are so plush and luxurious because people don't always cut their losses but they cut their winnings!

QuoteA professional gambler rides his luck when he is winning. But you'll never see a professional bet the same amount consistently when he's winning-unless it's the house limit.''

Seriously, this does it for you? 


Does the guy ever actually teach how to get an edge in the game of baccarat, or is it just more of the same money management progression nonsense?

Where are the wise words?

What I've read so far is simply page filler.  Basically the same thing that you'd find in a JP book.


-Xander

Does the guy actually teach how to get an edge in the game of baccarat, or is it just more of the same money management progression nonsense?

What I've read so far is simply page filler.  Basically the same thing that you'd find in a JP book.


-Xander

Who's going to be in LV next week?

Anyone in the Bahamas right now?

Oklahoma has 94 Indian casinos owned by 33 tribes.  I know that they do not have regular roulette dealt by a live dealer, but do they have roulette machines?
To be specific, do they have the game called Organic Roulette?  Does anyone know which casinos have them?
Thanks!
-Xander