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Messages - Jimske

#16
Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat Flat Betting
April 29, 2019, 08:51:27 PM
Quote from: Sputnik on April 29, 2019, 02:51:55 PM
Stratege - I have been warned about posting to much sensitive information that others steel and try to sell - also get several private messages about the question of how to play.
To be honest I only feel I been meeting two that are on a similar level.
That is you and the member AsymBacGuy at betselection cc.
You mean me, right?  ;)

Anywho, coincidentally I was going to post something RE: Sputnik March or my best representation of it from my own perspective and from stuff you said.  I extrapolated that your flat betting is getting about 6 bets per 75 decisions?   Maybe you could comment on that.  So today I played a shoe with the specific intention of posting it.  It's an attempt to capture the bias as per your defined states: A, B, C.  Reason is that lots of players play what they consider the bias.  Glen does as well but mums the word with that guy. 

As everyone knows I play a lot of hands in a shoe.  I did here as well with full recognition that you are looking for certain spots within the bias.  So here goes.  Maybe some others would like to opine on this concept after reading your stuff.  BTW, this happened to be a pretty easy shoe.  I get that.  As you can see I am switching according to the bias of the shoe.  But, this is not exactly how you do it.  It appears you're looking for something a little different by waiting for a pattern to emerge with the A,B and C series.  I don't know much about that.  But it' not really rocket science. 

With A series going to bet for chop and 2<2.  For B series going to bet chop and 2>3.  For C series going to bet FLD.  Question is if you are not betting every hand (or most hands) which one do you pick?  I get 53% betting most every hand in a shoe anyway.  This shoe gave me 60% - it happens.

So the question here is if you want to pick spots within the bias, where do you pick?  I'm thinking for the A's just be OLD until 2 LIAR, for the B's bet 2>3 and stop then cut after run ended; for the C's 2>3.  Just kind of a guess.  I would have gotten 4 more on this shoe if I was playing my normal because the 1's were on Player but. . . I was doing this.

(I don't know how to put photo in so go ahead anyone if you want.)
#17
I'm not accusing you, just asking.  I recall during your turning points discussion seeing a table max on one of the screen shots.  I recall because I was speaking about it to a friend and commented that you said "we won $22,000.00" . . . and I said that's weird what does he mean by "we" won.  Is he playing partners?  And then I said anyway, how can you win 22k with a table max of 500?  That's how come I remember that.  To be fair I looked around at your screenshots and cannot find the one that I "thought" showed the table limits.  In fact NONE of them show table limits at all. . . so now I am thinking maybe it was just a dream.

Here the screenshot you show show is a whole different layout from the original one you are showing for the table "battle."  Different casinos?  Different pits?

Since we're talking I remind you that you were going to talk about bet selection.  ??

Thanks
#18
One of your previous screenshots showed table Min 25; table max $500.  Is this a different pit or casino?  What are the table limits?  It's hard to tell exactly but looking at the shot I see a lot of green and some red but I don't see stack that would make one think someone winning or losing 40-70k.
#19
Baccarat Forum / Re: Parlay Money Management
April 22, 2019, 02:31:56 PM
Good prog.  Pretty tedious but safe.
#20
 :))  Funny stuff.  Happens often enough.  One time I was on the losing side of a mistaken play while another Asian had a big bet and profited from the mistake.  I had a small bet but kept my mouth shut for him.  Afterwards I gave him the stink eye for a couple of hands then wiggled my finger at him.  He didn't speak English - finally he through me a black for saving his behind! LMAO.
#21
Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat Flat Betting
April 20, 2019, 08:47:00 PM
Quote from: roversi13 on April 20, 2019, 04:57:30 PM
The control of variance is impossible
If you can do it,you'll ll be next math Nobel Prize
If your method can reduce or cancel variance,flat bet is enough for winning,but progressions speed up your success
what all these flat bettors are saying is that variance is controlled by betting less hands.  "Variance Interruptus"  They go on to say that this allows them to win more hands than lose. 

If win more hands than lose then as you say "flat bet is enough for winning,but progressions speed up your success"  The flat bettors don't seem to get that part.

J
#22
Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat Flat Betting
April 19, 2019, 05:06:39 PM
Quote from: alrelax on April 19, 2019, 02:22:43 PM
My answer is not as cut and dried as the rest of them.  Nothing against them, I tried all that and it did not produce the results I realize when I win.
What does "the rest of them" have to do with it?  You seem to harp a lot on how others play.  Forget them.  A shoe starts and we got to decide when and what to bet.  Don't you know why you made that first bet?  Second bet?  Third bet?  Maybe you got a different reason for every bet.  How hard can this be? 

J
#23
Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat Flat Betting
April 19, 2019, 01:21:52 PM
Quote from: alrelax on April 19, 2019, 01:02:06 PM
Any type of bet can win or lose.

However, I get confused at times here.  I think many wager consecutively and repeatedly no matter what is happening, counting on their end point after a number of wagers to be ahead and profit.  Based upon wagering 25 or 50 or 100 times in blanket succession, etc.
Mostly Asians where I play.  And they're either following the roads, usually just two, or else following someone else on the table. But in casinos where there's a lot of anglo's I noticed they basically just look at the scoreboard and try to guess what's predominant from the past history. I think most have some rudimentary betting strategy but they're mostly just gamblers. You got to have a reason to make a bet. I bet most hands in the shoe and I have a reason for betting every hand.

So far Sputnik and Luigi are the only ones who have explain a bet selection. I'm still waiting for you, Glen, to explain what you bet and why you made that bet. This is your site and you post the most about the game but for some reason you avoid talking about actual betselection. Your choice.
#24
Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat Flat Betting
April 19, 2019, 01:09:19 PM
Correct.  I think most people get that part. There's a lot of subjective decision making involved in winning if you lose more hands than you win. I think there's very few people who flat bet. And those that do have not reported any meaningful statistics to corroborate their statements. I have documented by keeping track of nearly 4,000 live bets in the casino and have achieved at 53% strike rate. When you hear about players betting two or three hands a shoe you got to ask yourself how many bets have they made that would be statistically significant? They don't say of course.
#25
Baccarat Forum / Re: STAR PROGRESSION
April 18, 2019, 08:05:45 PM
try again
#26
Quote from: CT70 on April 18, 2019, 02:16:11 PM
I call it Hit Rate but I?m sure strike rate means the same. It?s 65%.
I play less than half of all the hands in a shoe.
Thanks for answering.  I get a 53% strike rate and bet most hands - until I quit the shoe.  I won't flat bet with that low rate.  And I wouldn't with a 65%.  I might consider it but one would have a hard time losing using progressions with such a hit rate.  A progression would give a lot more bang for the buck than flat - win a lot more % of shoes.
#27
Baccarat Forum / STAR PROGRESSION
April 18, 2019, 06:47:26 PM
SORRY, CAN'T LOAD IT UP.
#28
Baccarat Forum / Re: 5 Things to Think About
April 18, 2019, 12:39:56 PM
My rule of thumb is to take a profit from a winning series.  Halfback or reset to assure a win. 
#29
Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat Flat Betting
April 18, 2019, 12:27:26 PM
Quote from: james on April 18, 2019, 08:54:41 AM
Based on your study which negative or positive betting is a starter?
I'll put my 2 cents n having studied a lot of progs and play both a neg and pos prog.  The short answer is it doesn't matter.  None are better than another.  It al depends on your risk tolerance, available bankroll and table limits.  But which ever you choose you are going to have to modify it in order to reduce escalation of bet sizes.  As you escalate commission will become a big factor so don't ignore commission.

Any of the cancellation progs such as LaBouchere (or its derivatives) are easier to manage while D'Alembert (or its derivatives) tends to put you in the stratosphere.  Oscar's Grind is a good safe starting point as well as Guetting for pos progs. 

As a practical matter none will win unless you can win more hands than lose after paying the juice.
#30
CT70, Mind if I ask what your strike rate is and your average number of bets per shoe?  Thanks.

J