Quote from: alrelax on April 09, 2019, 11:10:46 AM
I will try to make some brief notes and explain how and why we wagered on what we did. We profited about $22,000.00 on the 25 or so hands we won out of 30.

We got most of the Players correct in Sections C and D of the second shoe and Section B of the 3rd shoe. 

Likewise we did extremely well with the Players in Sections C, D and E of the first shoe.  If there was total table camaraderie it would have been awesome but the few that made big money on the Bankers in the first half gave it all back and went deep into their buy ins and sorry to say, it held the table back.  And that was a great and easy shoe to profit on, especially after the first half of strong Banker.

What's the matter Glen, decided not to say how and why?

Quote from: alrelax on April 14, 2019, 10:07:41 PM
There are no set waves or sequences.

There are no set Sections and Turning Points.

There are waves and sequences yes, but they are not set and have no agenda.

LOL.  I'm pretty sure everyone gets that part.

Sounds like a plan!

Gee, Al, you sure you're not from Philly?  Whatyadoin' on the White Horse, pickin' blueberries in Hammonton?  I-95?  If yer comin' from Jersey City/NYC you'd take the Turnpike>Pkway>ACXpressway.  Maybe you just liked the scenic route?  Route 9 is a fun ride further south taking in a lot of the Jersey coastline.  I come back that way sometimes just for gigs if I got time to kill.  New Jersey gets a lot of jokes but it really has some great spots!  It's not called The Garden State for nuthin'.  Can't beat Jersey tomatoes or corn as far as I'm concerned!

When I was a kid my dad would give me a whole roll of pennies!  Man, I was in heaven walkin' the boards and playin' those arcades!  Ahh, the good old days! 

Anywho, what I thought you were going to do (besides drawing lines after the fact) was to give some examples.  Everybody needs a reason to bet, right?  So you just got to pick a few spots on the shoe and say what and why you bet there and, if you like, you could say how much and why?  What's so hard about that?

Thanks

P.S. Lugi's favorite series?  Boardwalk Empire!

Quote from: alrelax on April 09, 2019, 11:10:46 AM
I will try to make some brief notes and explain how and why we wagered on what we did. We profited about $22,000.00 on the 25 or so hands we won out of 30

. 80% hit rate I impressive!  Average bet size $1k to get 22k.  Looking forward to the explanation.  Thanks

Quote from: Lugi on April 06, 2019, 08:56:07 AM
Baccarat can be a real simple game for those betting most hands in a given shoe.  No need to complicate the game with irreverential info.

In the end you the player are either betting the same as the last hand, betting the repeat, or you are betting the opposite of the last hand. So it is either FLD or OLD.

It is worth noting, that series of 2's behaves the exact same if you the player were betting FLD or OLD. (LW or WL).

Therefore to simplify your decision making, it may be prudent to trigger off the 3rd line.  For all your rationale, it basically comes down to bet the opposite or bet the same. While trying to avoid getting done by any switch.  To give yourself a bit of leeway of being hit by a switch, you need depth in your staking plan.

Any delayed progressions will give you the player cushion.  IMO this game is and always will be more of a staking game than any attempt to guess wrong or right.  Have a decent staking plan and it doesn't matter losing 3, 4 or 5 on the bounce.

Agreed.  It's  about  betting.  Keeping it simple with proper staking plan - knowing when and how to recoup  if losing and. walking with winnings.

Betting the 3rd line only a good  idea.  Leave the singles.  Don't  need them.  Consider playing side independent with this strategy. 

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 04, 2019, 09:39:25 PMI like to work trying to adhere at most by a scientific approach, that is every observation/theory must produce measureable results. And, more importantly, every theory must be proved by falsification.

as.

You are the scientist, mathematician and statistician analyst.  You been working on this for how many years?  Were even going to write  book about it.  What is it that you have to report after all this time?

J

People aren't losing because they're not reading the game clearly.  They're losing because they're gambling addicts!  You don't have to be a blackout drunk to be an alcoholic.  Nor do you have to completely ruin your family and finances in order to be addicted to gambling.  For many it's a disease they cannot control.  Yung Leh speaks of the "chimp."  Casino environment along with the euphoria affecting the brain that comes with gambling IS the chimp.  So for many the allure of playing, win or lose, is greater than the allure of winning!  The casino knows all this.  It's not the HE that makes them all that money!

It affects me.  It affects all of us, even Glen.  Difference is some able to recognize it in real time and discipline themselves to involve a mechanism to counteract it.

Can it be overcome?  Not without specific mechanisms and/or rules.  A firm plan for bet selection, bet placement, size of bets, recoup strategy if losing and exit strategy win or lose.  After that some may even need a slap on the side of the head!  Some won't be able to stick to it.  Just like with any addiction the first step is to recognize the problem.

It's nice to see someone respond to Glen's post other than the same few.  More power to those who find strengths or dominant tendencies with the kind of analysis Glen attempts to outline.  Personally I find it unnecessarily complicated and confusing to try and figure out dominant naturals, 3-card draws, etc.   

Nevertheless, absent a fixed bet selection which can win more hands than lose OR reduce LIAR we're going to find ourselves placing bets on perceived dominant "presentments."   Whether we see that bias in terms of card draw denominations or run lengths, patterns, etc. makes little difference.

Sure, it's not easy but simpler is better in my book.  Keeping alert, staying focused, having a plan and sticking to it both on the winning and losing side is the key to success.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on March 28, 2019, 04:05:39 AM
At least when I'm sober and focused :-)

as.

Were you sober when you wrote that?  Are you calling your bud a bighornshit loser lyin' coksuker?   Because he doesn't believe any of that since he plays many hands a shoe and does raise his bet.

Quick shoe yesterday:

L WWW L W L W LL WW LLL WW LL W LL WWWWWW L W LLL WWW L WWWW LLLL WWW L W L W L WW     

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on March 26, 2019, 04:02:12 AMMany shoes are not playable at all just for the reasons Al outlined in his several posts.

I guess I missed anything Glen wrote about unplayable shoes.  Maybe you could opine on the subject and present an example "unplayable" shoe?  Thanks.

J




















[/quote]

Quote from: alrelax on March 26, 2019, 03:22:37 AM
Absolutely spot on, no matter which way you think or desire.

I know in that shoe I posted last night of 23 or so players against he 2 Bankers out there in the very beginning of the shoe, winning large money compared to a relatively small buy in, that if I continued playing, most of it--if not all of it would have gone back to the casino.

The two of you crack me up!  I mean you and John, Glen.  No matter what either of you say the other pats you on the back and says "spot on."  Yet one says the math and computer sim is hogwash and bets many hands based on past history while the other insists flat betting few hands based on mathematical edge is the only way to win!  There are no two players that couldn't play more opposite than you two.

But to your last statement quoted above, Glen.  NONSENSE!  We can just as easily got even more wins.  Quitting while ahead always prudent psychology but in no way increases the probability of losing.  I do but many times regret it.  Here's a good example from today:

WWWW L WWW LLLL WWW L W LL W L WW L W LL W L WWWWWWWWWW L  and quit +45 units.  The interesting thing was the last 12 hands went pp BB pp BB pp BBB and quit losing to the 3 B.  But the rest of the shoe finished with:pp BBB pp BBBB pp B pppp.

Hadn't been a singleton last 14 hands or so!  Just betting for the dom 2nd line would have reaped more wins.  Shi.t.  Probably would have made another 5-10 units.  It happens.  Long dragon can come anytime.

FYI.   Next shoe went L W L WWWWW LLLLL WWWWWWW LL WWWW L QUIT  +27 units. (made some mistakes on that 5 LIAR given the history.)grrrrr

I stand corrected, Al.  I didn't look at the link much, just posted it since I don't use the Roads.  But my statement remains true that the Bead is the same as the Big, it just runs the patterns vertically. 

Whatever, continue on!

I don't suppose you're going to tell me what false information you're referring to?

In case anyone nterested.  I searched and found this website.

https://www.livecasinocomparer.com/live-casino-games/live-baccarat/baccarat-roadmaps/