Bead Plate the same as the Big Road, Al.  Except it doesn't show tie.

Sorry to upset you, Al. with my hokus pokus comment.  That's a lot of verbaage to go through but I did skim through it to pick out the important points.  I'm not chastising you, Al.  It's a guessing and betting game.  You and I and most other players make bets on things that happened in the passt will continue.  Therre's lots of ways to slice the shoe up looking for "doms."  run lengths and positons, side indpendent, S or O, Tie Line, etc., etc.  You have said this youreself.  Whether we use the Roads or some other makes little difference.

QuoteThe entire table except for 3 pf us out of well over 20 players, got wiped out.

OMG, you got to be playing with some real idiots!  It's one thing to bet for the cut once or twice but to keep on going against the trend with bigger and bigger money...?  That's crazy.  In fact hard to believe your statement above.  I can and do see players watch a long trend go by (have done it myself) but get wiped out?  Never seen it!  I know you're up there someplace in Dakota or wherever with too much intermarrying but. . . .

WWWWWW L WWW L WWWWWWWWWW L WW L     Reason is I ALWAYS start the shoe betting the first hand will repeat and continue until lose.  Then I ALWAYS bet for the 1st chop to continue until lose.   The only reason I got the second run is because the first run went so long.  If it opened with a 2 or 3 or 4 repeat I would have played it a bit different.  If I lose 3 units doing this I stop and assess and change my placement to one of two different ones that follow the trend.  If that doesn't work then I am in the hole and look for other dom situations (spot play) to get back to even or a reasonable loss.  If I still lose then I just take a loss for the shoe at a respectable loss, wait for the next shoe.  Doesn't happen often.  But I don't bet your kind of money Al.  Usually around a 4 unit bet is my high.  But that opens up the discussion to betting. 

Most, including myself don't take advantage and "pounce" like you do.  Sure the 124 a real good UAYW prog.  After that we like to keep our winnings and back off.  Maybe too much.  A conservative way to exploit might be the Fibonacci.  In a shoe like above a 124 then a Fib would really do well.

As far as posting shoe I have posted many in the past here and on other forums.  Next time I see a shoe like that I'll post it.  I have seen a 23 IAR and once a 17 IAR then another 18 IAR same shoe!  But here are last 100 shoes I've documented at MoSun.  I don't bother much anymore though.  1=P  2=B T=tie when I bothered to consider them.  I generally ignore ties these days.  LOL  Look at the first shoe.  Long runs of P and B then finish with a 1212.... which represents a 12 IAR run!  Reason I point this out is to show that patterns come in similar frequencies.   A 12 IAR will come as often as a 12 chop or a 1212. . . or a 3333, etc.  Easier for most to jump on a long repeat or chop then say a pp bb pp bb pp bb but all the same. 

JFM   713      1111111111211121121112T1112222222122T122222111112T2111112112212TT2221212121221
JFM   714      2111122221111211T2111111122121T22122T121211211112121T2221222TT112221222222222
JFM   715      21221111121122121122112112111112122212112212112T2212112221
JFM   716      21121221T22222122T211121221112212122T212112211T1221222T12T2
JFM   717      22121T2122T2222121111T111212T1222222121T1222TT121221121221122221221T11T122
JFM   718      2121211111221122212222211211111T2222211T1122212221222212212T2T121TT12
JFM   719      T21122112112111T1122T222222111212111T1T2111T122221112222212212212111121
JFM   720      12222T111112T1211121212111221221222TT22221211211211221122T121
JFM   721      2212111211T112212222TT2121TT2111T12112212T121T2222112111112T211121T2221T222221
JFM   722      1T1T1T121212222T11212221T2212T222212122T211112112212122221T1212112221T1T11211
JFM   723      212221122212221112212222221212212211222212211211121121111112122
JFM   724      21111222221211111221111221122121121221221212111111211121121111
JFM   725      2222111111221212121122212112112222111212122121211222
JFM   726      111122222221212112212122111222212122112221212122111211111211112221
JFM   727      112122122221112211111122212111221121121122121212121111112222212211121
JFM   728      21111212211221112111111211122221221212211211122221122112111121211
JFM   729      12122222121211222111121222112112221121221221122221121221211211221
JFM   730      2211121121211111222221211112222122112221111211221122122211211121
JFM   731      222222222211121212222122211212222111121112112111111221212222122122
JFM   732      1122212221211112212221221221221112211221122212122222212211212222122212122
JFM   733      12122121212111121121221111221122211212212122222121112122221221222211112211112
JFM   734      211222112221211111121221212212212211222112
JFM   735      21121212221122111222111111121111221121112221222121112222
JFM   736      11121122212121112211111212211112222122222221122212222111212222121
JFM   737      221121222212222221222122211221211111122121212222222
JFM   738      112122212112221222112112211122221111112121222222212212121122222222212
JFM   739      112211221212211221221121222211121221112212212121122122212111212221121112
JFM   740      22112212122211222121212121121121112222212222211211212212211222121
JFM   741      121211222121212211221222212212122122112111111221111121111221211
JFM   742      212222211111221212222212112212112221221221122212112121121222121222111
JFM   743      11122122212112212212211121122212212122212111112
JFM   744      211222112222212222212111221221221112221221212221112222211121222121111
JFM   745      11221211112211112112222211221111121211212211111212212
JFM   746      121212112112122121222122111111222111111211122222212212222211112121
JFM   747      2212211221121121222221222112111112212111212122222122112212221222222222
JFM   748      1212211221221112212211122212211112221111221112121111221112212212221
JFM   749      112212211122221221121111222111212221112112112211111222221122122112212
JFM   750      1111212221122112121222112122121221222112112211121222212122222211211
JFM   751      122212222221121112211211112211122111111212221111221211122
JFM   752      12221211111222222211211212212222111212122121111111112122212212112
JFM   753      22221121222222111121222212221221121112122222121111221
JFM   754      1121222121211221222112222121
JFM   755      12211211212122122111112122212221221211221122221212211111221222211111
JFM   756      111221222121211212122211112212122122112122111122222
JFM   757      211221122222121122121212221111212212211121111212
JFM   758      212122222222221121111122221112111221211222212112122221222122222111211112212
JFM   759      212112222121211122122221221122211111212212121222211221221
JFM   760      1221211212221222212122222221211212121221211111122222121221112
JFM   761      1222211221112221211211222112212112122222112122122122222112222211221122121222
JFM   762      2122212211222211122122111122212121222221
JFM   763      111121112211212221211122122221222221212211122212221221222211112222
JFM   764      1211222122222212121122212221122221112111221221122111
JFM   765      111221112122222112122112212222211121112221221111211121212211222
JFM   766      21111222112221111122111112121212112211211222121212122212111111112
JFM   767      222211122211111121212212212211221112211222221121111112121111
JFM   768      222212111111122212222222211112212121221111122122111112111222
JFM   769      1212212121222212212212212121111211212222112122121212121121222
JFM   770      2221212121222121221211222211212222112122221211212121212121221
JFM   771      21222121112211112121122111122212111212222
JFM   772      112222122211211112221212212121121211221111121211221211212112
JFM   773      11122112111121122122222122112122222112122212121112121211111
JFM   774      221112122111211212112111121211122221212
JFM   775      1111211221212222111222112111222222221111211221122122111222111121
JFM   776      2222111222212221112211112221212212111212221112111122112212122
JFM   777      2222122122212211111212212121122222212211111212122212121211222122
JFM   778      112221111121211121121121112111221221211111212222222111112222211
JFM   779      2212121212221111212211212111221221221121222112121122122111
JFM   780      11222222211121111212221222222112121121121122122122212112221122212
JFM   781      12221111222122112212122122221121121222112112
JFM   782      112121221111122111121221112111
JFM   783      222111112121122111211122222122212121111222111211212121111222221121212
JFM   784      1112111212111121111221112122222212121222112121212121121122221221
JFM   785      12112212221122122221211111122221221122122222122111112221112111211122
JFM   786      211111122112122112211222121221212221111212121122221122212122111212
JFM   787      122211211222111111222111212121212222121222211112121211211221111
JFM   788      11122212122222221212112222211211221111122221212112112122212222
JFM   789      112222121112112222121211112122221121211111212122211111122121221
JFM   790      2221112222111212222222211121112112112122112112122
JFM   791      212111211112221211112212212211211112222211121212111121112211122
JFM   792      111222122211111112221212221222111121221112112
JFM   793      12111221222211222122222222212122
JFM   794      1221111112111121112222211222212211211211111111122122212211112
JFM   795      112212222112221221112222122222111221221221221211112112221212
JFM   796      122211221122112121112111112212122211121221111212221211112222
JFM   797      211121211212111222222111122121122222222121121112221221211122121112
JFM   798      22221212212121111222122121111221211221111121221212222122112222111221112221
JFM   799      1122112121221111211212212111111121121112221211221111222122212
JFM   800      11221111222222211222221122211212211221111222211111121221221222121222
JFM   801   \   1222212111211212221212112112121122111222221212112222121121211
JFM   802      22111211122112211211112222112121211211121121122212221212121121122
JFM   803      2212212111121221122121222121211222222121211111211122212221112122112222
JFM   804      22222222112212221222112211212111112211221222222111212112211112122221
JFM   805      22122221211111222222222111212111112211212211221121112221121212121112
JFM   806      211221121111212112221211221212111221121121221221121211122222112111222
JFM   807      1221122222122211212121211211111121112111221122222122122121212121222221
JFM   808      21111222211121212122212212222121212222222111122212111112211121212
JFM   809      1212211122112112121222111222212212221212122111111222211112122122111212
JFM   810      221122221122122221121111211221122112221221212221112111121211221122
JFM   811      22112121112122112211221211121112122121121121122221211122212212211121111
JFM   812      22112222212112122222221212212211111221111121122222222211112222

Thanks Al but I really got to chuckle at all the hokus pokus above.  It's nice to choose a pattern format and win when it hits.  But oftentimes it just doesn't.

QuoteAnyway, it was a bad shoe for following the big road, pretty typical as you already see within the first half, 40-41 hands.

It seemed like a pretty good shoe to me just looking at the Big Road.

QuoteBut the key was the Bead Plate, the ties cutting and the naturals.  There were those 3 things that was consistent.  Why fight against it?

:"playa alway win afta duble tie."  LOL.  Funny, you circled the Bead Plate horizontal but the bead plate just mimics the Big Road and shows the chop as the Bead Plate runs VERTICALLY!  But yeah you are betting the "consistent" or said another way what is strong or dominant. 

You still never show the W/L registry.  I wonder if Assymbac thinks this is a playable shoe and if so how many hands he would bet?  2?  3?  Maybe he'll chime in.

J

A consistent shoe.  Don't know how it ended after 1P 3B. 

L W LL WWW LL WWWWWWW L WW L WW.  How much $  ??  How much to bet and when two different subjects.

Maybe it's best to look at W/L registry to see where to bet and why.

And here we thought you always won!  Just kiddin'.

Quitting while ahead is always best if only for maintaining confidence but whose to say?  Maybe next time in a losing session will have the same cumulative outcome.  Quitting while ahead another gamblers fallacy because it assumes we'll be ahead more than not and that ahead amount will be greater than any losses incurred.  What to do?

IMO and the way I do is to keep my bet spreads and unit sizes the same.  So I kind of know what my high limit is in a shoe.  Win or lose!  If I get close to win I will generally drop my bet a bit and if lose next 2 of 3 just quit.  If I happen to win I will go back to original again but anecdotally most times there is a high limit and a time to say enough.  OTH I also know what my loss limits tend to be and I know what I can recover from so I will get to a point and accept the loss and quit.  This may be similar to Al's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 just a different mechanism.  We need mechanisms.

But then again, I'm a grind player.  I could win 10 IAR and not make nearly what a loose gambler will make in that run.  Does it bother me?  Yup.  LMAO.

J

Quote from: alrelax on March 18, 2019, 02:07:20 PM
You must realize, that a designing a Scope of Result, is to contain actions, that you solely initiate and control, not the shoe. The shoe produces presentments, the average bac player is attempting to have the shoe conform to his desires, rather than, the player conforming to the shoe?s presentments. 

You keep on harping on this ave bac player wants to change the shoe stuff.  I disagree.  We don't have any empirical knowledge of average bac player but my guess from experience is that ave player is betting on the past to continue or, as you pointed out many times, bet the run to stop (cut) precisely because of known averages. 

Oh, yeah one thing I didn't say kind of goes along with Lungyeh comment.  I really don't like a lot of hoopla on the table, squeezing cards, taking a long time.  I want to get through a shoe in 45 minutes to an hour.  I also have no problem playing alone.

The comraderie thing can be a distraction.  Yeah, ya feel foolish when others are winning and you're the only loser.  That happens on occasion.  The opposite also happens!  All of a sudden other players are following you, waiting for you to bet before they bet.  I've been on tables where I bet late and cause everyone else to take down there bet! 

I don't think it's a good idea to start following other players.  Maybe once or twice.  Bad advice IMO.

I agree with Lungyeh for the most part. But you're right Al.  Something to be aware of.  Lots of times we hit a good shoe and we don't exploit maybe because we are not paying attention, or are just getting back some losses, etc. and we should be more aware when it occurs.  But . . it can occur when we are all alone on the table or even the only one winning.  Not necessarily has much to do with other players or comraderie.

I recall a day when I lost like 9 or 10 hands in a row.  Was so disgusted I got up and sat down another table and then won 12 IAR!!!!  Was so flustered I let it go by without thinking to do more than get the losses back!!! LMAO.

where do we find Philip Koetsch's stuff to see what the selection is?

Quote from: alrelax on March 14, 2019, 03:59:13 PM
I have mentioned camaraderie in some of my writings.  Maybe, AsymB, Ted009 or Luengyeh can comment on this intangible and a bit difficult to define aspect of playing baccarat?  Any other members input or experiences is also encouraged of course. 

Anecdotes deleted. 

Yeah, maybe some of these high rollers you mention who bet thousands per hand and have also lost thousands or hundreds of thousands will chime in? 

Fact is majority of people who are regular players and readers of this forum are never in these situations.  Mainly because their fellow participants are unknown to them and most are playing their own game or are following one or two players on the table that they THINK know what's going on.  So this may be great for all the high rollers.  Majority of tables are for lower limit players and none of this is going on.

Sure, you get on a table once in a while and it's dumping money so you get your fair share.  Once in a while.  Most times high or low limit you see people struggling to make a profit. 

Come down to Earth, Al.

Quote from: alrelax on March 08, 2019, 10:42:29 PM
Visual Following SIGHT

Adaptation & Involution

Defining and bringing into consciousness numerous things to allow you the best frame-of-mind, is difficult with all the happenings, events and influential things that usually go on at a casino and at the baccarat tables. 

However, you must be consciousness of the emotional attributes to events and separate them from your wager decision.  No matter if that is with the shoe presentments itself or the other players around you.   Not easy to do when at the casino.  Easy to say on here, but not at live play.  I say this, because the emotional influence and the lack of extreme clear mind and wagering with complete consciousness, each wager, is very difficult to continuously do.   

Without going into the mechanical and decision-making process, with the comparison of both and trying to rely on something that countless players seek, which is that elusive and scheduled wager that will prevail much better than 50% of the time.  Of course, we will pick our own triggers that we do subconsciously or automatically, or those that we rationalize out and pick with extreme consciousness and clear reasoning. 

Either way, there will be the Visual aspect to all of this.  It all starts there, with the visual observance of something.  So, in all essence you are allowing yourself to be influenced by things that are not directly influenced by the events.  Meaning, your sight will first observe something and then your emotions will send that very same thing to your brain, then a decision is made in one fashion or the other concerning that thing.  Wager with it, against it, sit it out, etc., because you were influenced somehow with the event that just took place.  But, the thing most of us forgets, is that you will be wagering for the subsequent presentment waiting to happen, not the one or ones that just happened.

Involution?  Honestly, Al, I had to look that up!  This is pretty deep stuff!  After that word I had to read the whole post.  And I'll tell you without any sarcasm it makes a lot of sense.  Particularly for the addicted gambler and/or player who exists in the casino primarily for the ACTION!

Maybe a simpler way of saying is we must be mindful of how the act produces dopamine which creates a euphoric condition that can be detrimental to decision making?  Of course the sounds, temperature, colors, lighting, personnel, etc. are all deliberate elements invoked by the casinos to produce an altered reality.

Maybe this old adage a pro told me years ago sums it up: "You got to decide whether you want to win money or play a game."

Quote from: alrelax on March 07, 2018, 02:05:23 PM
"So IF we take Mikes assumption that after 3 losses somehow mr. edge waits around the corner and ADD this statement here, it seems to me, it needs one or two bits more than just wait for 3 losses to start betting":

It needs a huge amount more!  It does not work that way in the casino.  People try all the time.

The people mix reality with fallacy and dreams all while they are in the wrong, 'frame-of-mind'.

I have literally seen well established, smart, long time players at baccarat lose 6 to 12 hands repeatedly.  True they do not have to wager but their ego-mood-bank roll-past experiences and much more----all comes into play.  On top of it all people do not take very lightly to buying in with $10,000.00 or much more and than losing it.  I watched a female baccarat player last week actually point to the board at midway and verbally cite, "Look it has never went past 4 repeats for both banker and player".  It was at hand 43.  I told her, please understand things change and very seldom does the board hold true the whole shoe, 80 hands.  She wagers table max in 4 spots, which was $8,000.00 for the cut to the players side and 4 more bankers came out.  The time to do what she did was when it was happening in the sections that already prevailed.  But, people look for what they convince themselves are 'solid' and 'great' wagers to make and then bet on them.  That is why the casinos put those boards there, that is why they provide pens and score cards, they want you to do that.  Simple, no?  I have written about it all and many people will not truly understand or believe me, because  they have not been in a real casino or their exposure to a real casino is not very much.

I truly think it takes longer than 10 years of casino play to even start to understand the casino, the game, and yourself.  But hey--I might be totally wrong!  I don't know.

I never followed this thread much - until the other day with nothing else to do I began reading when I came across the above. I'll be honest, I had to chuckle when I got to the anecdote about the lady who lost 4IAR betting against.  Al is right, shoes seldom maintain a "signature."  IMO, the only mistakes the lady made were continuing after the first loss and after losing the first bet she already was at table max so she had no where to go to do more than break even if she won the 2nd hand.  But that's not what cracked me up.

What cracked me up was this statement by Al: "The time to do what she did was when it was happening in the sections that already prevailed." Huh?  So IOW as soon as you see a 4 IAR go once or maybe twice it is more likely to be a winner next time? Or the longer a "presentment" continues the less likely it is to go further?

So I guess the lesson is, PLAY THE HISTORY but play it sooner than later.

Thanks for the explanation.  Sometimes concepts difficult to understand without examples.  I'll take a look.  Hopefully other system players will comment.

I don't get it. Can you please explain it more thoroughly? Thanks.

Quote from: Jimske on January 28, 2019, 04:09:17 PM


For fun and got nothing much to do today.  Flat bet two of my fav placements and then added Assym Bac Strat #1 w/ 1-2 NP (the way I understand it)  Net wins.

SFC                  .8        8.55
L4                   4.75     13.5
BAC#1            7.15      2.55 (if flat then 4u and 1u respectively)

Doesn't mean these methods win ITLR.

Lots of players like to bet on common patterns to continue to a profitable length.  121212   22222     ppppp    BBBBBB  maybe stuff like 3131 etcetera.  We've all seen these patterns go on forever at times.  But in most shoes these patterns fizzle and we just lost one of the bigger bets.


From the shoe Al posted it seems that if guys correctly jumped on the common patterns they would have done really well as he mentioned.  So we'll wait and see how he explains the turning points.

But most shoes are "un-patterned."  And then it came to me.  Exploit un-patterned shoes and patterned shoes with proper switches.

Here are results of both shoes flat bet using that mechanical placement.

Shoe 1: +10 units  LLWWLWWLLLWWWWLWWWWLWLWWWWWLLWWWWWLWWWLLLLLWLWWLLLLWLLWWWLLWWWLLWW

Shoe 2: +24 units  LWLLWWLWWWWLWWWWLWLWLWWWWWWWLLWLWWWWWWWWLWLLLWWWWLWWWLLLWLLWWWWWLWLWWWWL

My 50 test shoes not done but so far doing really well.  The losers are less than 6 units flat and winners in the teens.  When testing I always note that any big losers have to be offset by similar or better big winners.  If not them the method NG.  Plus I think you got to win at least 75% of shoes to make it worhwhile.

Of course I don't flat bet so as long as the LIAR arre generally 5 or less shouln't be a problem to overcome drawdowns.  Those shoes above picked up 56 and 83 units net using my goto progression.

Maybe more later.

J