Well, am not a great fan of these techniques, but I can safely say that I have been fortunate enough to know people who plays these techniques with greater amount of success and have learnt a lot from them. As some of you have pointed out that this is a subject which is like "I will tell you, but have to kill you", I have decided to post the knowledge I have gathered from some of my close friends who practice this technique. I am not worried about them killing me, as I am anyway counting my days


Standard deviation
Now anyone who wants to read something about standard deviation, I would suggest reading this wonderful article from our mathematician friend Bayes
http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=1093.0

Things can't get simpler than that and I am not going to explain here what 2SD means or what 3SD means. That will essentially defeat the purpose of this thread. And moreover, I can't put that simpler than what Bayes has put in his thread. What I will explain is the practical applicability of this in roulette in simple English with some examples and explain the common fallacies and pitfalls that you should avoid. As in all the threads that I have initiated, you need to develop your own strategy around it, eventhough I will touch upon a couple of methods of using it. In fact one who would like to understand statistics in a fun and easy way, I would recommend the book Cartoon guide to statistics by Larry Gonick. Very nice read , but don't expect to become a statistician after that

Regression to mean
The explanation goes it is the phenomenon in which if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and, paradoxically, if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first. Using Regression, as with any statistic concepts, you cannot be certain of something to happen, but you can certainly say that it will happen within a degree of predictability.

Simple applicability in roulette could be (ofcourse some people might disagree as statistics is common sense and what is common sense is always questionable), you see that there are 10 Reds in a row, then in the next 10 spins, there is a higher degree of probability for a balanced mix of reds and blacks to be present. Often people misunderstand that the next 10 spins will have more blacks than reds or completely black so that it will all even out. NO! That's not the case. Regression to the mean will just imply that the next set of 10 spins will have a higher chance of a mix of blacks and reds. Again note, nothing is certain.

Now in my next post, I shall explain some concepts that one should take into consideration while practicing regression to the mean.

Gents,

So much to share, but so little time to do.

My daughter has finally convinced me to travel with her to states to do a little bit of much needed overhauling of my body. Eventhough I might be accessing the forum quite infrequently in between my treatments, I don't think I will be able and will have the strength to use it extensively like the way I am doing now.

When I return after 2-3 months, (ofcourse if I return) will continue to get more active. Just wanted to say thank you for the wonderful time and discussions in case we never meet again! PM me or mail me as you always do and will strive to keep in touch.

Au revoir (hope its temporary)!

A friend of you and mine!
GreatGrampa

Atlantis, turner


Knowingly or unknowingly you both have created two systems in the last week which are amongst the best I have seen in my life.  One who knows the game will vouch me! Keep up your great creative thinking process. 


I have sets of sequences which are examples of extreme sessions from the hell. You will be surprised to know that they passed 70-80% of these sequences. Well done both!

   Strange heading.

But did any one of you had one of those old nokia phones. Have you ever enjoyed playing snakes? Then the video is for you. I leave it to your imagination for money management and betselection. But this is my favourite past time at the casinos, when I am on a high (on the bankroll  ). You know the rules of snake game and the same rules apply here. You start a new life when you bite yourselves 

Snake

 When Victor posted the voting on the favourite playing position, I saw that not many chose Dozens/columns. That's why I posted the challenge which is based on Dozens/columns to show how effectively it can be used to rake up some nice profits. Now even though the bet selection in the explanation of the framework is one dozen and one column, it can be done on any location that has 1:3 odds. That will open up a variety of playing positions combos right from dozens to straight-ups. And one admission before getting into the framework, dozens/columns are my least favourite playing position J

Bet selection
For a moment, let us assume we live in a perfect world where the odds match the outcomes. In such a world, if there are three balls coloured red, black and green lying in a bag, you will get a different ball once every 3 times you draw a ball from the bag. We take this as the basis for our bet selection. We observe one outcome and assume that that outcome will come up within the next 3 results. (Huge assumption! May be wrong! But we need to assume something J) In other words, we select a betting position and bet on it 3 times in a row or until a win. On a win, we continue on the same selection for another 3 spins and on a loss, we select a new position.

e.g. with dozens
1       - Observe this spin. Bet on 1^st dozen for next 3 spins or until a win, whichever occurs first.
13    -  Bet on 1^st dozen
23    - continue betting on 1^st dozen. This is two times.
36    - continue on 1^st dozen. This is three times. Now we lost this series. So select a new position, which is 3^rd dozen.
1 – Bet on 3^rd dozen
23 – Bet on 3^rd dozen
30 – Bet on 3^rd dozen. This is a win. So continue on 3^rd dozen for next 3 spins.
12 – Bet on 3^rd dozen.
36 – Bet on 3^rd dozen. This is a win. So continue on 3^rd dozen for next 3 spins.

Now that you have got how to do a 3 step, cycle based bet selection, I will proceed to explaining the trends and anti-trends.

Trends on dozens are something that have been discussed in this forum for years now. I was a keen follower of Hermes and his statistics on dozens/columns and their trends and lately the ones from George. There are essentially 3 trends that are possible when you are focussing on a 3 spin cycle for betselection (ignoring the green goblin )

1-2-3 and its variations (where all the dozens appear in 3 spins)
1-2-2 and its variations (where two dozens appears in 3 spins)
1-1-1         and its variations (where all 3 spins contain the same dozen)

Our bet selection works best with the 1^st trend, where we get all the 3 dozens as different. This will ensure that we get a hit, resulting in a 100% win.
It works next best with the 2^nd trend, where we get only 2 dozens. Here we are looking for a win% of 66%
It works least with the 3^rd trend, where we get only one dozen. So unless we are getting four dozens in a row, we will be guaranteed a failure if only 3 dozens come in a row. Here we are looking at a win% of 33%.

Bundling it, we have a balanced view on the trend which will ensure a good hit ratio. But how do we overcome the scenario where we are getting caught up in the last variation. Ofcourse we cannot guarantee, but we can introduce an insurance bet here, to ensure that the loss is limited.

Insurance
Most gamblers know what insurance is. For those who don't, insurance is a way to limit your losses by either getting a partial or full return of your bets. An insurance bet will not give you a productive outcome. It will either reduce the losses and get you into even. So how do we add an insurance bet in our framework here. We just add another element into our bet selection, which gives the same 1:3 return. For explanation, I will add columns as it is easier to explain. So every time we do a bet selection we do two positions that offer a 1:3 chance and in my examples I will start with a column and a dozen.

So the above example will look as
1       - Observe this spin. Bet on 1^st dozen and 1^st column.
13    - We get a win. So we reset selection. Now we bet on 2^nd dozen and 1^st column.
23    - We get a win. We reset selection. Now we bet on 2^nd dozen and 2^nd column.
36    - 1^st bet
1 – 2^nd bet
23 – 3^rd bet and win. Reset selection. Bet on 2^nd dozen and 2^nd column.
30 – 1^st bet. Lost
12 – 2^nd bet. lost
36 – 3^rd bet. Lost. Reset selection. Bet on 3^rd dozen and 3^rd column.

So we managed to improve our win% from 2 out of 8 outcomes to 3 out of 8 outcomes. Even though the improvement is marginal, if you are following any progression, you will realize that you are being lighter on your relative bankroll.

Now that we have added insurance, we need to see how we can ride on the trends on the insurance bet. For e.g: our trends on dozens may be performing wonderfully well, but the trend on columns may be going against us. We need to see how we can ride on the position which is giving us a great trend. I will follow this up in my post later this week.

I started playing BV for posting the videos. Its not bad huh! Slowly getting the hang of it and nice way to play out of hours when the casinos are shut or to add some spice to your playing life.

For the last 10 days up 106EUR playing 0.05 chips. Not bad a return I guess. Is it always like that? Seems to be fair play!

This is my video on my race to 50 units in 12 mins, manual play on BVNZ table. Whoever guesses the framework right will get my winnings.

Yes, it's a challenge. Whoever cracks the challenge is going to get a nice framework which I have played and my winnings from this session isn't it sweet? Get cracking.
Race to 50

I will probably post some more clues if there is interest. But with every clue, the prize money will decrease by 20%

Do you have an idea you think is a HG? Do you want to develop your own framework? Do you want to play to your strengths? See what drazen has posted, he is very close to a HG. See the ideas from ignatus and PA, it's a flood. I have read books on systems, read books on MM, but no one tells me how to develop a framework that works for me. None that I come across, may be its there somewhere. This is my attempt to exactly do that.

Fellow forumers, looking for heavy contributions from you all, because I know at some point you might have struggled to get to where you are now without someone mentoring/coaching on these concepts. We will not argue here which system, works and not works. We will just pick up a simple idea and see how we could develop a framework out of it. If you can contribute from your experience on things that have worked well for you when you defined a method, it will help all of us. Lets get cracking

I felt so injustified after posting the Finale crossing framework, as eventhough it simplifies things to a large extent, it is something for very advanced and professional players. Not for the fellow forumers who look for easy things to play. When I say easy, i mean outside bets. Easy to track, easy to understand, easy to play.

So how simple can simple get? While deep professional and advanced players can look at Finales and crossings and other frameworks to follow in the finale chapter, what can i share with fellow forumers who like to keep things simple. The answer is the 123 framework.

Basic concept 1 : Repeaters
How amazed we are to identify that there are so many repeaters. How often have we seen a column repeat, a dozen repeat and one of the even chances repeat. As often as we breath! How do we take advantage of it in a controlled way as simply betting on a even chance to repeat is not going to statistically get us up all the time.

Basic concept 2 : Risk
As Manrique successfully exhibited, progression need not depend on increasing the units. It can also be done effectively parachuting across various locations in the table. What a gem of a rule. How can we drive maximum mileage from this simple concept?

Basic concept 3 : Production and recovery
Every gambler will know that there has to be a production strategy and there has to be a recovery strategy. It could vary between attack and defense or defense and attack depending on your style of play. However these need not be two different strategies. Things would be very simple if we can combine these into one single framework. But can we do it?

I did mention briefly about Winkel and GUT when I was talking about keeping things simple. God gave us earth and skies. God gave us food and energy. Our ancestors gave us clothign and shelter. Winkel gave us a powerful concept called "Crossings". Accordingly to his Great universal theory, crossings have to happen in roulette. When it happens is "Scholastical" (I can't pronounce it correctly .

Basic building block 1 - Crossings : Crossings are a powerful way to express that events on long term have to take opposing sides. It is a proof of every reaction has an equal and opposite reaction in roulette and things have to be balanced on long term. It is the cyclical equivalent of Last and further. It works on the chinese philisophy that things have to work in harmony and have to get balanced. But over what period of time, is any one's guess. I won't explain crossings further, as you can refer to any of old winkel's threads.

I am always in two minds when it comes to GUT. One side of me says, what a genius, excellent! Other side says what is scientific about it, another fallacy. But there are things that I have formed a opinion. It is so difficult to track in live play. Its so many numbers, its so many crossings, very complex when you are sitting in a casino. Sometimes i think if only the number of possible crossings are less, if only the numbers that i have to track to be less then there is a greater possibility of the crossings happening frequently and greater possibility of getting a victorious crossing as the number of possibilities are less.

Also, hey! where is the progression? Ofcourse manrique, winkel and claudio taught us how powerful flat betting can be. But progression is a synonym for success right

In other words how do you decide for your method what is the stop loss point and what is the win point.   

Thanks for all your feedback on Triple shooter framework. Undertaking a challenge there has opened up the world of possibilities for me into the RNG casino world and learning and adapting my methods of play to into the RNG world. Not that i am a fan of sitting infront of the computer doing stuff alone, as what drives me is the whole atmosphere of the live casino, enjoyeable chat that you will have with the dealer over a drink and thrill of it. But anything is a learning process and hope i will get some good luck at the end of the Triple shooter challenge.

While that's continuing, i thought it is always monotonic to just look at the even chances and outside chances and discuss about it. So I thought why not start another thread that focusses on inside bets and it will help me in two separate learning processes over the next month, one on inside bets and other on outside bets.

So here we go - this framework is called The Finale Countdown.

As i have seen in this forum and other forums, and many of the books that i have read, it's a rarity if not non-existent of a method that takes into account the Finale (or the ending digits of the spin). The framework that i am going to consider for discussion here is going to use exactly that "The Finale".

Now as always with respect to the concepts.  Call me boring, but without understanding these concepts there is no way one will be able to gain success on a long term. These concepts are what make on a successful player and not the systems!

Basic Building Concept 1 : Finale Finer Details
Finale is something that is unique, because it thrives in anamolies. For eg, there are 18 reds and blacks, there are 12 sets of 3 streets and 3 sets of dozens. So everything is almost symmetric in a roulette table, but for Finale. It alternates between 3 or 4 sets of numbers. The following numbers have 3 sets of finales (7,8,9) and others have 4 sets of finales (0,1,2,3,4,5,6). In case of american tables, the finale zero will have 5 sets. Also, we know that an inside straight bet returns us 1:35. So is there any merit in looking at this anamoly and combining it with the straight bet? Does this anamoly balance the imbalance in equilibrium caused by the uneven return of 35/36 or 35/37 in 0 and 00 tables respectively? Lets explore more on this when we discuss the framework in detail.

Basic building concept 2 : Keep things simple
Because of the above anamolies, the finale is very difficult to track. And also it doesn't naturally come to a beginner to medium skilled player as they are trained to look at the layout, look at even chances, dozens, streets, straights and so on, but for Finales. So tracking the wheel for multiple spins (which is an essential for inside bet) is just going to complicate things ( I for once think the winkel's GUT would have been a far greater success if the betting process is much simpler than what it is currently). So to keep things simple, we should just track back 1 spin and at the most 2 spins to make the most use of "The Finales". Any longer than that is going to result in absolute chaos in the table. Also, for a beginner to medium player it is very very difficult to be able to track bets on more than 6-7 even chances. These factors need to be taken into account while defining a framework that is going to be simple.

So, leaving you with these thoughts as it was a long day today, and will soon be back with some more concepts before we look into the framework.

To avoid confusion i have shifted the thread here from my first post, so that we can have some focussed discussion on this topic.
I was thinking where to start and i landed on this thread by Ralph on playing 3 even chances and thought would add my 2 cents on it. I have been using a framework called Triple shooter and will share it with this group to enrich the learning experience. The more you contribute, the more we learn.

By the way, I like calling it a framework rather than a system, as understanding the concepts and rules of this framework is essential for any one to use it as it is or use it in a way it works for them. I can't agree more with Lord Manrique or JP when they say a system player is always a loser.

Basic building block 1 - "You got to take all the chances life gives you to be a successful human being".
To me, this goes well with roulette as well. If you have decided to play outside bets and even chances (Grr! I hate the person who gave it the name even chances with a green 0 and 00 making us donate money to the casino), then you got to take all the chances available to you. You will be limiting yourselves to lesser opportunities of creation of wealth, if you are taking your chances. Well! Some one might say that you are exposing yourselves to the vulnerabilities of all the ECs (Grr! can we call it Even Returns, as even chances is not really sounding right , but it really depends on how you see it and whether you are a half glass full or half glass empty person and I must admit that i am a half glass full person.

Why is it so? That brings me to a important story i read some where. Once a forex trader and  a gambler met. Forex trader said i made 0.17% profit and am really happy and gambler said i made only 10 units betting even chances on a 100 unit bankroll and am really sad. Some might argue that the gambler should be happy that he made 10% profit compared to the forex persons 0.17%. They are not on a level playing field to treat everything as percentage game isn't it. it's a win all or lose all game on even chances, where as all the other percentage investments are not so. Legends have worked hard to convert all Money management into percentage play with a great level of success. What is left is bet selection. How do we make it percentage play to get us into even position and get into a level playing field. The answer is a big NOT POSSIBLE. Taking that with a pinch of salt, if we are able to convert playing on even chances to a percentage play partially if not completely, that's a huge advantage. that's why we play all 3 ECs together.

Law of reality suggests that all 3 ECs cannot trend together. Put in other words you will not lose all 3 bets on a streak like 10 reds when betting only colours or 10 odds in a row when betting only EO. Sure you may lose some if 2 out of 3 streak, but you will still be winning on one. that's where we are able to achieve and gain some advantage over playing just one EC, by converting this into a partial percentage play.

I am neither a mathematician nor a statistician, but the one with experience and instincts and this sounds right for me as these three are three individual outcomes independent of each other.

Over the years I have been a huge follower of this forum but as a guest.  Be it good ole "Victor" or the divisor "lanky", experienced "flat ino" or the testing stuff systems (of course "TCS"), jp fan nd or system library glc, mathematical winkel or one-time wonder ironsteel, "legendary" hitman john or the humble scoobydoo (the list goes on and will need a separate project q post) you have all given me something to think about. Every post is a learning experience. 


Sure I lost close to 50,000$ in my first year, but hey that was 6 years back.  Now I can confidently say that I have built my career around it. The money lost was the capital investment for my business . The key to it has been the teachings from this forum around "treat it as a business".  If you are running a company sure you may have days when you operate on loss, and days when you are on a roll, but your quarter results and annual reports are what matters. Run it tight and every penny counts like every second matters in a rocket launch.   


The second thing is "holy grail has its own time warp" or there is no hg.  Even if there is one treat it as there is none.  There is for a reason its called Holy grail. Even after the da vinci code is broken no one could finally get their hands on HG If one of the greatest mathematician ever born in Einstein, couldnt locate it no one could. There were days when I casino tables used to have different dealers, diff balls, diff numbers, spin after spin and I used to be a constant for hours.  13 hours was my long haul using a single system. ( it was the LvF9). 


Third learning was "in god we trust, and we need money management for rest". You learn not to trust any bet selection.  This is the key.  The moment you trust it's an absolute winner, you are digging your own grave. Manage your money better, set % limits on your losses (ofcourse the learning is that don't set it on your winnings), and treat every money goes into your pocket as your money and never place it back for the casino to swallow it.

With all these learnings, I have been making my living for past 3 years on roulette. Of course it was boring to use very few concepts on bet selection, even though the impact on your bank on betselection was less significant compared to mm. So I developed some of my own over the years and have decided to share with fellow forumers to multiply some fun.  Some are good some or bad in consistency but everything is good on its day and equally bad when the stars say so.  Over the following days I will share them and will be open to your feedback as every post I a learning. 


Once again, you forumers rock and should find a legendary place in roulette history along side Norman Leigh, John Patrick, Brett Morton, manrique, Attila (don't start a discussion questioning their legendary status .


A BIG THANK YOU!