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[soxfan]

3 hits for an EC  within 37 successive outcomes ONLY in Albahala's world!!

I've never buck up against outcomes that bad, hey hey.

[Albalaha]

By the way, I've made a profit of 12 units from that fictitious session with max drawdown of 245 units and 64 units max bet.

3 hits for an EC  within 37 successive outcomes ONLY in Albahala's world!!

Oh really!!!
            I never met more ignorant gambler ever.

If you play against RNG, even BV no zero you see this type of sessions, they are bordering on virtual limits, RNG play against you.

I totally beg to differ here, Ozon. Rather, betvoyager is the only casino that can guarantee no foul play and complete randomness.
If you do not trust me, you may trust Bayes on this. See reply number 6 here: http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1045.0

[ozon]

No, you misunderstand me, BV is almost the only RNG whom I trust, I play there every day, I know that they have equal odds in long run, but  sometimes series from hell happen very quickly when you begin to use a new strategy, but in long run probability is  ok, I think that they are honest.

[Sputnik]

37 contra 3 could happen and is 5.37 SD

But i will give you the scale

2.5 / 3.0 SD is pretty common
3.5 / 4.0 SD is pretty rare
4.5 / 5.0 SD is very rare
5.5 / 6.0 SD has happen once during several million simulations and happen once in monte carlo for 20 years ago.

[Albalaha]

@Sputnik,
         There is a virtual limit by our observations but there is no absolute limit to what can happen in succession. A very unusual looking streak or say 5 SD below mean may look too remote to happen but it can happen any moment without anybody can guess its arrival.
We can count SDs as per our own convenience in any span but it doesn't help much, in real play.

[Sputnik]

 My scale is valid and i can measuring several different combination during one sample with 100 trails and measuring SD.
So if you use 100 trails i get 300 using R&B H&L O&E with one combination and 600 using two combination and 900 charting three combinations and 1200 using four combinations.

This means i see 3.0 SD and above several times in real World just tracking and charting for 3 hours.

You have to understand, if you are going to play against the worst and the extreme you should only measuring the first 100 trails as you need the next 200.
That is what you should base your playing model upon if you want to succed.

But with only one single combination you will charting and tracking the Wheel for weeks with out experience 3.0 SD or above in the real World.
And you have to share you method with me if i am going to belive that you can bet from 0.00 to 6.00 SD without losing, my opinion it can not be done (you need virtual trigger)

Shall also mention that it does not matter how the animal or worst or extreme look like - you can clustering the loses and winning before they happen.
For example 10 contra 1 and 10 contra 1 and 10 contra 1 and 10 contra 1 that is 40 contra 3 and 5.64 SD which would be the same as winning the Lottery if it would happen during your lifetime playing.

Cheers

[Albalaha]

It seems you are too much into counting SDs and playing that way. May look good as you get betting opportunities after too many spins, the way you want, even if you track a few dozens bets together. So, to see the bets being devastated with whatever MM you use, u need to simulate with high end tracker capable to track millions of spins.

Playing after super harsh times have two in-buit disadvantages:
1. It gets you negligible spins to bet in, practically not doable in any real casino
2. Even if you chose 3 SD below mean as an  opportunity to start, it can not guarantee winning flat or with most of the MMs known.
3. It will still have all the troubles that comes in all over play. Only thing by your side is the virtual limit.

  I did work a lot in "Regression towards Mean". While it is a statistical truth but the difficulty in using that practically is we can never guess the span where regression will start to work. We can rather get disillusioned with pseudo temporary regression as well.

[Albalaha]

SESSION #12: 

                              138 LOSSES VS 109 WINS



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[Sputnik]

 Well that is thanks to me that you know about Regression towards the mean as i introduce it into gambling boards the year 2005 at VIP Lounge.

And your assumption is wrong, you can not and should not Place 19 losing bets with 3 winnings bets, that is a waste of time and Money.
In real Life or real game you can not survive waiting for the bad strike to happen, because it might be no time left to play so you will lose.
And there is no progression that can cover 0.00 SD to 6.00 SD so you will fail.

We measuring the statistical Ecart and Variance and have done several million simulations.
So if you want to spend your Life trying to win the Lottery (experience above 5.59 SD) you will probably die Before you will experience it in real Life or real game.

The result above is nothing 2.84 SD or 13 contra 2 as worst and drop to 1.60 SD.

This is also one thing you do wrong, your expectation should be 1/3 or 1/4 of regression or less after a strong imbalance which is just a coupel of hits.
You base you method upon many winnings after the worst and extreme which is rare and is not working with any kind of staking plan to recoup.

You need to narrow down things into Cut Point Methodology and not try to invent whe Wheel again.

Cheers

[albertojonas]

I did work a lot in "Regression towards Mean". While it is a statistical truth but the difficulty in using that practically is we can never guess the span where regression will start to work. We can rather get disillusioned with pseudo temporary regression as well.

I agree it is difficult to use practically and we can not deny the statistical truth of it. That is why is so interesting to play with and try to observe how it works, how it signals its arrival and how it manifests.
In my opinion the more you measure, the more information you have about the permanence to base your decision upon.
Sputnik has great knowledge on this, you should study his cut point Methodology.

[audiokinesis]

BetJack,

I am just reading - rather - and mostly lot of blahblah throughout the forums. 99% of the published systems, strategies, methods are simple and surely failed in the long run. What does it mean? You will lose your money, only matter of time. (I do not speak the Fun mode; meaningless for me.) Due to the "rare" events. The back to back loser sessions, the back to back -300 units cut-off sessions. Too much -300 units cut-off and your BR hole is deeper and deeper - in an inevitable and unblockable form. The good charts/graphs can clearly speaks itselves. Same as your 5000# random.org samples.
But honestly, in my world, there is no exists like normal, rare and very rare invents, just simple random events.

Do your homework, let's study and learn the EXcel simulations, and simulate enough for the clear picture; you will not win all the random sessions! Never. Our fix mechanical progressions will never cover all of the distributions, all of the possible SDs, and the back to back loser sessions will harm us - surely and inevitable.
At first no need any Betvoyager, no need any Random integer platform, you will only need the famous oldy WIN7 pseudo random generator, and just work and work with it. Someone says it is rigged. Yes, maybe...or maybe not. I do not know, I do not care, because If it is rigged, then the "beating process" will be easier, isn't it?
But if you can't gain any 0,0001% edge (the number of the zeros is optional) with EXcel RNG in your runs, you will never reach with any others too.

1/ superior Bet selection is exist? I do not know, I do not "see" yet...and I do not believe in, yet. After more than ~5 billion (BILLION) simulated spins with any form of RNGs, be it lifespins or created, I think: no exist. Simple play Red (if your choice is EC), and goo!

2/ If there is no superior Bet selection, there will be not enough room for the Flat betting. Never...in the system playing. Just in the AP playing. Truth: without more accurate predictions (=superior Bet selection) we will need some clever MM plan, what can help us survive the random flow. Key word: survive. I speak about NO zero, so there is no HE. Sadly, it is almost impossible too - without positive variance (=luck), and appropriate bankroll with high risk tolerance.

See the 11th and the 12th Harsh sequences. One of my EC MM plan can survive all of the 10+7 (10 Harsh sessions + 7 sessions from the "Anybody such bad..." thread) sessions, But Not the new 11th Harsh. I make these with 2 type of the same MM plan, one milder and one more aggressive type (1.,2.,3., and 4. pics). What does it mean in overall? Am I happy with my "illusion"? Nooo. It simple means - as I said somewhere and sometime in one relevant topic, this type of tests are better than nothing, but it can not solve every problem of the random.     

Let's see other example; one of my best 2 number (straight up) system (5. pic). Basically the Latest 2 numbers with strict triggers and one clever hibrid progression, and with other MM safeguards. This is very good example of the necessity of the appropriate bankroll and the high risk tolerance.

Summary, general 10000# chart:
141,18+  average, units
247346  overall, units
1752  sessions
17520000  (17.52 Million) spins
10000  spins/session
1225000  (1.225 Million) placed bets
~100 units Max. per bet

From the 1177th session, let's see the greatest DD (according to the general 10000# chart) the inevitable and unblockable back to back loser sessions, step by step in a row:
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Could you manage this deep DD with your pocket and your risk tolerance?

I think there is no any MM plan that can save us from these type of random behaviour (back to back loser sessions). Just the Not playing. This is the biggest problem of the long run. Sure, to me.
Bye

[BetJack]

Hello audiokinesis
Your posts always inspired me
Your posts always filled ме with hope
It can be achieved...

BETJACK

[Albalaha]

Session #13: This may be the worst one ever seen:

    446 Losses vs  354 wins

ONLY 65 WINS IN FIRST 200 SPINS
NEXT 200 SPINS BRING 89 WINS ONLY
NEXT 100 SPINS GOT 46 WINS ONLY
NO BIG WINNING STREAK EVER TO HELP with compare to losing streaks




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[Blue_Angel]

I cannot find the 11th harsh  session, where  is  it?

[MarkTeruya]

I cannot find the 11th harsh  session, where  is  it?

Dunno about HARSH session, certainly Ali is getting a HARSH time at GamblingForums.

They don't take kindly to scammers over there and are able to voice their opinion