Prepare for long run and you are a winner in spite of the house edge of casino

Albalaha · August 03, 2018, 04:31:14 PM

A virtual hit even after the worst is no guarantee of no tricky times ahead.

ozon · August 04, 2018, 12:39:51 AM

You use your old progression all the time, has something changed and you have something new?

Albalaha · August 04, 2018, 03:28:16 AM

Quote from: ozon on August 04, 2018, 12:39:51 AM
You use your old progression all the time, has something changed and you have something new?

Yes, I improved the old one.

Mike · August 04, 2018, 12:01:49 PM

Quote from: Albalaha on August 02, 2018, 02:40:19 AM
@Mike,
The answer lies in understanding the probability up to the exteme and be ready to face all of them, well in advance.
A money management is essential to handle these. Sadly, most people look at age old ideas to pick from. None of the classic failure progressions will help you. They are all myopic and meant for small sessions only.

Wishful thinking of winning flat bet will never help. You can not pick the best bet by any methodology. The sooner you learn this lesson, will be better for you.

Where did I ever say bet selection works in the random game? It doesn't; how can you predict random numbers? it's an oxymoron. Your mistake is in thinking that a mild progression can make up for it. If you've won until now, it's only because of luck. I suggest you quit while you're ahead, it's the only time "hit and run" works, lol.

Albalaha · August 05, 2018, 06:03:47 AM

QuoteYour mistake is in thinking that a mild progression can make up for it.

Lol! Who said this? Being mild or harsh doesn't help without logic supporting the same. Oscar's Grind is a mild one but I do not support that: https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/oscars-grind/msg64327/#msg64327

Main problem about talking of progression is you can not even think beyond those rotten progressions you have been reading about and I always said they are all fool's gold. Progression is not only about raising bets blindly but unfortunately that is how every newbie perceives it to be. Increasing bets at worst times could rather kill you faster. The core idea is to strive to make a progression truly meant for the "long run". I have already defined the long run.

Albalaha · August 05, 2018, 06:18:49 AM

Let me make some statements so that none come up with repeated questions upon this topic:
1. The game is total random and hence unpredictable.
2. House edge/fees/payouts makes slight variance for every bet by itself.
3. This slight edge doesn't kill a gambler by itself.
4. Most guys perceive progression by raising bet to win in lesser number of wins which is faulty and rather causes irreparable losses.
5. Flat bet is no way to win.
6. None has seen a progression meant for long run or even if there is one with countless chips, not practicable to be used.
7. Variance can not be foreseen and even its stretch or degree can not be anticipated by any methodology.
8. I do not believe in anything, so far as it is about risking money. I work on sound principals and then test it enough to arrive at a conclusion therefrom. I have played tens of thousands of hours, and tested even more.
9. Nothing conclusively can win always but it is possible to be the smartest player and have nice winning moments at most of the sessions while not losing pants at even the worst days. Winning in short run is neither possible nor desirable to a sensible person.

Mike · August 05, 2018, 10:52:20 AM

Quote from: Albalaha on August 05, 2018, 06:03:47 AM
Main problem about talking of progression is you can not even think beyond those rotten progressions you have been reading about and I always said they are all fool's gold. Progression is not only about raising bets blindly but unfortunately that is how every newbie perceives it to be. Increasing bets at worst times could rather kill you faster. The core idea is to strive to make a progression truly meant for the "long run". I have already defined the long run.

It doesn't matter whether the progression is smart or unintelligent. They are all equally useless in the long run. You say a progression is not about "raising bets blindly". But that means any progression, if it is to be effective, must be used at the right time. How is anyone to know what that right time is if (as you say in no. 1 in your list above) the game is totally random and unpredictable?

It's a blatant contradiction, which is the norm for system players because they don't do logic.

Albalaha · August 05, 2018, 04:50:51 PM

QuoteBut that means any progression, if it is to be effective, must be used at the right time. How is anyone to know what that right time is if (as you say in no. 1 in your list above) the game is totally random and unpredictable?

Now you asked something wiser. As I said, we can not make any guess and rather need not. Do we need to guess the order of wins in a martingale or labby? We just need a ratio of win. A Marty or labby can beat any session mathematically but they are ill formed to need huge chips . Similarly, I can adopt a progression approach that can make me win if I get a ratio, even after a few thousand spins. Instead of expecting a win in 37 spins, I can handle if I get an average of 40. Instead of predicting what is going to happen in a few next spins, I wait for the average getting closer to my target range. Even if it doesn't go any close, I have ways to sustain the worst without much damage. Gradually, I will win or not loose big enough to recover later.

Do not consider every progression approach to be a push to win 1 unit risking 1000s. Sadly, there has been negligible work in this area.