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General => General Discussion => Topic started by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 15, 2018, 02:57:40 PM

Title: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 15, 2018, 02:57:40 PM
Cambridge English Dictionary

coincidence definition:
1. an occasion when two or more similar things happen at the same time,
especially in a way that is unlikely and surprising:
2. chance or luck:
3. an occasion when two or more things ...

Hi,
Say, every morning , when you walk toward your workplace,
you cross path with the sweet young girl....,

that's not coincidence,
because you deliberately timed your walking pace to
coincide to cross path with her...

Say, one day,
while at a traffic light, you see a Honda stoping at the red light,
followed by a Toyata, then a VW, and a Chevy. ..

Then, the next day, at around the same time, at the same red,
traffic light, you noticed, a Honda, Toyota, VW, and a Chevy...
Wow!
What a coincidence!

Will the next day, at the same time and traffic light,
the same sequence of Honda,Toyota, VW, Chevy....happen again?

Or, after a few day passed, at that traffic light, you see a Honda,
then a Toyota happen to stop behind it...
then...will the next car be a VW...
then followed by a ...Chevy?

Now, all the mathboys and experts shrieking. .
."The probability still the same, no matter what!"

Of course the probability, remain the same...

But the question, is, will the COINCIDENCE ,
meet with the same COINCIDENCE ..again?

It same like coincidentally, wise,
will "red" hit 100 time in the next 100 spins..?
(.the probability is 50/50 minus green , shriek the mathboys...)

the REDS hit 10in row, then 10in row again,
that 20red, is coincidence, but for coincidence of "10-in-row",
to hit ten of 10in row, is just impossible!

or will the green zero, hit 10 in row?
(the probability 1/37, again, shriek the mathboys)
zero hit twice, is coincidence, hit 3, is coincidence of coincidence,
4 is rare, but 10in row?

Mathboys. .. say.."yes!"
But in coincidence theory,
it may not hit in your life time, because it highly unlikely...

likewise,


in next 12spin, DS, you see six different ds hit, then another six different ds hit,
will next 6spins produce six different ds....again?!
(again, the mathboys shrieking, its 1/6 minus zero!!!!)
BUT THE COINCIDENCE HIGHLY UNLIKELY! or never in your lifetime...

or if you see dozen..123, then 123again, then....will next be 123...again?

if we wanna win, after all the lung collapsing debating with the mathboys...
we should think in term of coincidence vs coincidence term..

.this is where the "probability of coincidence", a different perspective setting.
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: stringbeanpc on October 15, 2018, 06:28:54 PM
Interesting idea beat-the-wheel

FYI, this was copied over to rouletteforum so you may have some replies there as well

https://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=20875.0 (https://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=20875.0)

Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: TheMagician on October 19, 2018, 01:24:03 PM
BTW,

Ignorance does not excuse error, and error is inevitable from any supposition risen from the absence of immutable facts. Roulette is game surrounded by such facts and cannot be pushed aside either by emotion or notion.

Your whole argument is built on a vague notion of a conceptual experience by the human mind known as coincidence. Applying a modus operandi in roulette from a point of view of such a hypothesis that something unlikely to happen, might in some way serve the gambler on the roulette table, is most certainly doomed to fail.

Mathematics, as well as some knowledge in rudimentary physics of objects in motion,  would serve such a gambler way better when it comes to placing bets on a wheel.

If you lack insight in the above mentioned, then at least play the wheel once you have seen a sector on the wheel forming up from a specific dealer and play said sector (max 11 slots wide) at least three times in a row. If you hit one time u have a small profit (chance 29,72%), if you hit it two times then consider quitting and go home as you�ve managed to make a nice little profit on a minimum of risked units (3x11u).

This is the only advice I can give you when approaching the wheel of a Landbased Casino and play B&M style.

Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 20, 2018, 02:18:13 AM
Thanks stingbeanpc, and Magician

The COINCIDENCE has DIFFERENT probability from the mathboys' probability.

say, in DZ MATRIX OF 3.
if you see

123...then ..
123...that a three different dz in a matrix...
and a coincidence of repeat ..
after a few more matrix rows...

123 hit again, then what the coincidence that...
123 ...hit again?
if 123 hit again, that ...

123
123
xxx
abb
aba
123..hit...then..
123....hit again...meaning two coincidence happened in a row..

now the mathboys shrieking .".PROBABILITY STILL UNCHANGE!!!"
"ok..ok..we heard that a million time now, and bored to death with thatt..."
but coincidence happened in a row? that another probability....

Another example.
you see

123...then..
111 hit...then after few rows of matrix..
abb
bab
123 hit again...will the next matrix be ...
111.....Again???

if 111 hit again...then that a coincident in a row..
then after few rows of matrix...

123 hit...then will next be...
111....AGAIN?!
that be three coincidence in row...

123
111
abb
aba
123
111
abb
aab
123
111...Three in row.!!!what the probability?
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 20, 2018, 02:35:33 AM
Another example.

matriz dozen three.
you see..
111..
222...
333...three row of coincidence. ..

after a numerous row..
you see..

111..
222...then...will...
333 hit...again???

.if 333hit again , that be great coincidence!
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: TheMagician on October 20, 2018, 08:39:03 AM
You see patterns where in reality there are none. And you additionally believe these patterns on the LAYOUT (table), are predicting a certain outcome. They do not.

What is on the layout, is a set of numbers that however you group them will offer the same probability of hitting depending on your BET SELECTION.

A certain layout pattern, be it a collection of straight ups seen as a street, dozen or column is no assurance for a correct future outcome. The probability is the same on any given spin.
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 20, 2018, 11:30:11 AM
thanks Magician,

the probability remained unchanged,
the pass and present do not predict the future...
that why we try to bet the coincidence,
merely because coincidence itself  highly unlikely to coincidently coinciding ...

this OVERSIMPLIFIED EXAMPLE.

in next three rows..you see..
332..(1missing)
232..(1missing)
323... (1missing) then after numerous matrix ...


abb
bcc
332 hit...again.....will 1 be missing again? of course it MAY...
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 20, 2018, 11:33:49 AM
research your "double street" data,
after six different ds hit, will next six spin have six different ds...again?
(apart from zero)


it may, but, in how many spins?
have you seen any?
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 20, 2018, 11:52:50 AM
oversimplified example. ..

say in six ds,

past six spin=(ds 12345 & 5...)

that is ds 6=missing...

will it coincidently that in next six spins=the missing ds, namely 6.
hit six time in next six spins???

(12345, 5) hit...then
(666666)?!  hit?!

that highly unlikely coincidence...

of course the progression is high. too...
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 20, 2018, 11:55:03 AM
or ds in past six spin

(1234, 4, 4)...(missing=5&6)

then next six spins=
(5,6, 5,6, 5,6) ???

of course it may...
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: TheMagician on October 20, 2018, 02:18:26 PM

Good luck with those ideas BTW.

Oh, when you ask for a big sack from the casino to hold your immense winnings from this "Coincidence" play you love to display here as something solid, please don't forget to take a photo of the shocked expression on the face of  the present Pitboss for us poor math&physics-shmucks,  before you make the Casino go bust and make headlines in the gambling community.  :))

Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 20, 2018, 02:53:57 PM
thanks Magician for your thoughtful thought.
Appreciate them, thanks again.
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: Gizmotron on October 20, 2018, 06:10:53 PM
Quote from: TheMagician on October 20, 2018, 08:39:03 AM
You see patterns where in reality there are none. And you additionally believe these patterns on the LAYOUT (table), are predicting a certain outcome. They do not.

What is on the layout, is a set of numbers that however you group them will offer the same probability of hitting depending on your BET SELECTION.

A certain layout pattern, be it a collection of straight ups seen as a street, dozen or column is no assurance for a correct future outcome. The probability is the same on any given spin.


It must be a real challenge to attempt to appear erudite while just stating the obvious. That's a real gift you have.


Let's break it down so that it is no longer magic. "You see patterns where in reality there are none."


It's magical thinking to think that is true. There are patterns and they have unique characteristics beyond the suspension of disbelief. They have beginnings, duration, quality towards perfection, and ending types. And most important of all, probability can't forecast or predict when they will occur.


"And you additionally believe these patterns on the LAYOUT (table), are predicting a certain outcome."


Not true again, more magical thinking perhaps. You don't need to have magical skills of prediction to place a bet on a pattern or trend. And you don't need a "red herring" to make yourself out to be a good point maker. It's just a straw man argument that serves to elevate yourself and has nothing to do with using patterns or trends the right way, that way that you are apparently oblivious to. Try thinking how a person would use a pattern and then make your dogmatic statements.


"What is on the layout, is a set of numbers that however you group them will offer the same probability of hitting depending on your BET SELECTION."


Having the same probability does not make trends and patterns automatically ineffective. There are two outcomes. it works or it does not work. Since the original premise is that a trend or a pattern is the result of coincidence and not some magic elf wondering around putting spells on wheels, or a magic mathBoyz trying to impress everyone, I would not be so righteous with indignation towards others that can clearly see you have blind spots.


"A certain layout pattern, be it a collection of straight ups seen as a street, dozen or column is no assurance for a correct future outcome. The probability is the same on any given spin."


There you go again. Probability allows for patterns and trends to work effectively at times. Probability can't prevent a coincidence from occurring. Probability can't predict when a coincidence will be effective or not. Only a fool feeds a trend that is not working. You look like you want all trend users to be fools. You look like you count on it to elevate yourself. It's cheap theatrics you know. You are stating the obvious and celebrating your achievements by it. Only you have accomplished nothing.


Somebody needed to say it.


It is a coincidence that a pattern appears. They are only seen by those that have set out to discover them. When it happens it has an eventual ending. It occurred while probability remained a constant. It occurred without any capacity for having the power of prediction. It happened irregardless of the opinions of weak minded math snobs. It happened anyway while the blind continues to lead the blind. And that is a trend too.


It does not matter that 20 reds in a row happened. The odds for each spin were a constant the entire way. A ranting maniac spewing math equations on a soapbox would have no effect on the coincidence. Course, this is not that case. His outbursts would only be a typical announce regarded as part and parcel of dealing with different personalities on a gambling forum. The trend happened. The pattern was perfect. At no time was the event predictable.


Now go find a way to argue your point with effectiveness. All you are doing is asking people to be impressed by stating the obvious.
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: Kattila on October 20, 2018, 07:08:48 PM
I know this will sound weird for some , but ... Order kill random.

This is what random give us ....random,

No /      R/B

3           R
23         B
17         B
33         B
3           R
8           B
21         R
24         B
6           B
34         R
19         R
33         B
4           B
9           R
15         B
14         R
31         B
10         B
4           B
18         R

Now same numbers but maybe doesn t look
so random anymore....

No /      Group(singles/chops)

3           1
23         2
17         1
33         2
3           1
8           2
21         1
24         2
6           1
34         2
19         1
33         2
4           1
9           2
15         1
14         2
31         1
10         2
4           1
18         2

Yes , still can hit same order for few spins (and new numbers will be
ordered in the same pattern/order) but....
The Change is close, groups will change position most
of the time.
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 21, 2018, 03:47:27 AM
Thanks Gizmotron and Kattila.

____________________

hi Kattila,
below is your numbers arrangge as matrix of three.




This is what random give us ....random,

R      B      B
B      R      B
R     B       B
R     R      B
B     R       B
R     B       B
B      R

_______________________

This is what random give us ....random,

R      B      B
B      R      B
R     B       B.......(RBB FOLLOW BRB)
R     R      B
B     R       B
R     B       B.....(RBB FOLLOW BRB.....again, a coincidence)
B      R


Above coincidence two in row...

when BRB hit again,  will RBB follow?
if RBB hit, then that coincidence three in row.
===================

This is what random give us ....random,

R      B      B
B      R      B.......(BRB FOLLOW RBB)
R     B       B
R     R      B......(No repeat after RBB)
B     R       B
R     B       B
B      R

No repeat of coincidence.
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: TheMagician on October 21, 2018, 08:23:57 AM
Ah, so.  The walking con-job is back once it was clear the forum changed owners again.

You base your arguments on your own unsubstantiated claims. Basically devoting endless hours to your own well-known circular reasoning (or circular logic). But then we have seen a lot of this nonsense from you lately. Has your self-confessed schizophrenia got worse?

If you really think I would devote any time soon making you eat your own words by investing energy in rather simple math the reason roulette is memoryless, or the simple physics of bodies in motion explaining why certain sectors appear in waveforms possible to calculate in terms of basic probability where vectoring of the wheel is more important than the numbers themselves,  then you are deluding yourself.

I don�t waste time on liars, narcissists, and conmen like yourself, feeding on the desperate and hopeful. That's a job for attentive moderators.



Quote from: Gizmotron on October 20, 2018, 06:10:53 PM



It's magical thinking to think that is true. There are patterns and they have unique characteristics beyond the suspension of disbelief. They have beginnings, duration, quality towards perfection, and ending types. And most important of all, probability can't forecast or predict when they will occur.



Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: TheMagician on October 21, 2018, 08:29:26 AM
BTW, perhaps you should read this before you go on with your reasoning:

http://www.askamathematician.com/2013/11/q-are-some-number-patterns-more-or-less-likely-are-some-betting-schemes-better-than-others/


Quote from: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 21, 2018, 03:47:27 AM
Thanks Gizmotron and Kattila.

____________________

hi Kattila,
below is your numbers arrangge as matrix of three.




This is what random give us ....random,

R      B      B
B      R      B
R     B       B
R     R      B
B     R       B
R     B       B
B      R

_______________________

This is what random give us ....random,

R      B      B
B      R      B
R     B       B.......(RBB FOLLOW BRB)
R     R      B
B     R       B
R     B       B.....(RBB FOLLOW BRB.....again, a coincidence)
B      R


Above coincidence two in row...

when BRB hit again,  will RBB follow?
if RBB hit, then that coincidence three in row.
===================

This is what random give us ....random,

R      B      B
B      R      B.......(BRB FOLLOW RBB)
R     B       B
R     R      B......(No repeat after RBB)
B     R       B
R     B       B
B      R

No repeat of coincidence.
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 21, 2018, 02:23:06 PM
thanks magician for your kind words.

The wheel, the 37 european, if we leaves out the zero, 36no. divided by 6=6 division or section...
the probability same as double street, that 1/6 albeit zero.


eg.
From the zero, count 123456, 123456, 123456, 123456, 123456, 123456...
that six section.
or simply named them as ABCDEF.

what the probability of each section hit in next six spins?
ABCDEF PERMUTATION?
About once in 200spins averages.

if you see all six hit in past six spins, will all six section hit, again, in next six spins?

if the wheel is heavily tilted, then, half of the wheel, will hit more than the other half.
if the wheel well balanced, then all sections,
will have almost equal hit , in. .... long run.

if the wheel wobbles,  then certain sections will hit more....



the wheel also could divided into three sector, that also has probability as the dozen bet.
zero,12, 12, 12, ...

what the probability only two section, hit in next three spins?

what the probability that all three sections hit in next three spins?
if  all three section hit  in past three spins,
what the probability, all three hit again, in next three spins, and hit again, in next three spins?
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: Gizmotron on October 21, 2018, 02:40:12 PM
Quote from: TheMagician on October 21, 2018, 08:23:57 AM
Ah, so.  The walking con-job is back once it was clear the forum changed owners again.


https://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/foxtrot-alpha-5-makes-261-units-in-49-bets/msg53864/#msg53864 (https://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/foxtrot-alpha-5-makes-261-units-in-49-bets/msg53864/#msg53864)


Pot Kettle Black.


You are not qualified to dismiss coincidence caused patterns and trends. That is self confessed too. Knowing that you would ignore a sleeping dozen that sleeps for 30 spins in a row makes me happy.


You have a huge attitude problem with anyone that disagrees with you. Yep, it's a trend. You are so angry that you can't hide it. You need people to target. You need the forum. You can't make an argument without making a personal attack. I believe you think that tolerance is only something that you claim is a positive trait that you have while completely keeping it as useless to only people superior like yourself. You can't tolerate me and so you must attempt to ridicule me. Still not answering how probability negates trends and patterns. Why can't you and the other mathNazies out there ever deal with this question? It is you that depends on prediction. It is you that can't or won't see patterns and trends. You are the blind one. Since you can't see them there is know way that you can know if they work at times or not. You can't deal with not having a mathematical or physical edge. So you spew your unsubstantiated dogma as if you are pontificating Newton. All you have succeeded in doing is pointing out your hate. I'm glad you are miserable. You are stuck with it. Keep up the good trend.


Any more conversation with you is like being caught in your flypaper trap. You are condescending, egotistical, and basically poison to normal discussion. If you are so smart then why are you also so blind to your own imperfections? The angry member. The math expert of all things randomness. You don't fit well. It comes off as anti-social. And the most blinding of all, why are you here? Are you a spandex boy come to save the unwashed? We have been tolerating the mathBoyz for decades. We can tolerate you too.

Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: TheMagician on October 21, 2018, 03:08:12 PM
Quote from: Gizmotron on October 21, 2018, 02:40:12 PM

https://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/foxtrot-alpha-5-makes-261-units-in-49-bets/msg53864/#msg53864 (https://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/foxtrot-alpha-5-makes-261-units-in-49-bets/msg53864/#msg53864)




You have a huge attitude problem with anyone that disagrees with you. Yep, it's a trend. You are so angry that you can't hide it. You need people to target. You need the forum. You can't make an argument without making a personal attack. I believe you think that tolerance is only something that you claim is a positive trait that you have while completely keeping it as useless to only people superior like yourself. You can't tolerate me and so you must attempt to ridicule me.


I see you are talking with yourself again. I can understand if your self-confessed schizophrenia would force you to do that in front of a mirror at home, but here in public? C�mon... Guess it must be in its late stages before the guys in white come knocking on that door of yours.

I remember when you applied to become a test pilot in my forum some years ago. It didn't take much to see you were basically a basket case with no visible skills warranting a participation in said forum. The ones that have been there for years now have made it quite well from what was offered based on pure math and physics.

You on the other hand, and I am referring back to some old posts of yours here  (I could bring them out to you in case u suffer from temporary amnesia), have been suffering from bouts of desperation, suicidal thoughts and some other more serious mano-depressive states of sheer mental degradation that shouldn't be mentioned here.

You are gravely mistaken if I attack such mental disorders. What I do approach in your case with what you may have experienced as personal attacks, is your well documented dishonesty, where the amounts of accusations of fraud and mere confidence crimes against individuals on this forum and others ones too are sufficient to conclude that you are a simple con man, and from what I have witnessed myself, intelligent to a certain degree, allowing you to present a reasoning sufficient enough to con your objects of choice as long as they do not turn your ignorance against you and laugh straight in your face, in which case you play the indignation card, which of course all con artists do as a last defense.

Any further facts about you are merely superfluous as the currently available facts are archived for all to see should they do some research on you and realize there are more than enough revealing your pathological inclination to lie and con people.  I suspect this ability and mental weakness has been with you since childhood. The reason probably to be established by a professional psychiatrist and not me or any other member here.

Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: Gizmotron on October 21, 2018, 03:34:16 PM
Quote from: TheMagician on October 21, 2018, 03:08:12 PM

I see you are talking with yourself again. I can understand if your self-confessed schizophrenia would force you to do that in front of a mirror at home, but here in public? C�mon... Guess it must be in its late stages before the guys in white come knocking on that door of yours.

I remember when you applied to become a test pilot in my forum some years ago. It didn't take much to see you were basically a basket case with no visible skills warranting a participation in said forum. The ones that have been there for years now have made it quite well from what was offered based on pure math and physics.

You on the other hand, and I am referring back to some old posts of yours here  (I could bring them out to you in case u suffer from temporary amnesia), have been suffering from bouts of desperation, suicidal thoughts and some other more serious mano-depressive states of sheer mental degradation that shouldn't be mentioned here.

You are gravely mistaken if I attack such mental disorders. What I do approach in your case with what you may have experienced as personal attacks, is your well documented dishonesty, where the amounts of accusations of fraud and mere confidence crimes against individuals on this forum and others ones too are sufficient to conclude that you are a simple con man, and from what I have witnessed myself, intelligent to a certain degree, allowing you to present a reasoning sufficient enough to con your objects of choice as long as they do not turn your ignorance against you and laugh straight in your face, in which case you play the indignation card, which of course all con artists do as a last defense.

Any further facts about you are merely superfluous as the currently available facts are archived for all to see should they do some research on you and realize there are more than enough revealing your pathological inclination to lie and con people.  I suspect this ability and mental weakness has been with you since childhood. The reason probably to be established by a professional psychiatrist and not me or any other member here.


Didn't even finish reading this. Have a football game on. I see you are not attacking me again. Wonderful how that equates.
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: Gizmotron on October 21, 2018, 04:56:19 PM
Yes, that was rewarding knowing that I'm in your head again. You know that phrase? I'm living there rent free.
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: Gizmotron on October 21, 2018, 05:08:31 PM
Quote from: TheMagician on October 19, 2018, 01:24:03 PM
BTW,

Ignorance does not excuse error, and error is inevitable from any supposition risen from the absence of immutable facts. Roulette is game surrounded by such facts and cannot be pushed aside either by emotion or notion.


You are the only reason I responded to this thread. When you said that I had to say something if nobody else did.


What immutable facts?" You got facts on the nature of randomness, variance, and with regards to trends and patterns? I don't think so. All you have is accusations of prediction where none is claimed. And don't give me that Zen at the mountaintop crud either. You are not enlightened enough to share any "immutable facts." Why don't you suppose something that includes facts about trends and patterns. You have made yourself out to be a target of your own axiom. Do you get that?
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 22, 2018, 06:52:05 AM
Thanks Gizmotron and Magician, 
for your lively argument.

--------------------
The coincidence could also applied to missing dz in matrix
of three.
++++++++++++++++
oversimplified example

say you see...
323
211..
when you look at upper and lower matrix,
you see that 132 are the missing matrix.

thus when  323 hit again, you bet ,
single dozen...


you lose when  211 and 323 hit as the following matrix.

thus we bet the coincidence won't repeat itself, or two in row.

wait for a repeat of a matrix...
323
323
211...
xxxxxxxxxx
323
323..(a coincidence)
211...(a pattern of 323 followed by 211)

thus the probability remained unchanged,
we bet the coincidence won't coincide.
323
132
we lose when 323
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: Blue_Angel on October 22, 2018, 07:02:16 AM
Whether you have to find something which you would risk less money in order to win more, or something which its limits are definable, either way you have a profit situation.
To find events which happen more than their odds/payouts is something which happens all the time, it could happen from any number and group of numbers.
Therefore no need to find something rare in order to bet against it, bet instead for what is already available all the time.
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 22, 2018, 01:29:53 PM
thanks BlueAngel for your thought.

oversimplified example,
say,
when we sit at the roulette table, past three spins=231,
we may bet next three spins won't be 231, again..

of course it may hit ...who knows the future?

or wait for..
231,
231....then bet won't hit again.

or wait for another 231 to appear, then bet 231 won't hit again...
double coincidence in a row...
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 22, 2018, 02:06:28 PM
oversimplified example.

we can bet matrix three of EC

say,
red vs black in matrix three

when you see

rbr
rbr
brb. ..that a pattern, what the probability that a coincidence, will happen, or repeat...?

when after numerous matrix,

rbr
rbr........will next three spins be brb..?
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: Blue_Angel on October 22, 2018, 11:46:53 PM
Quote from: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 22, 2018, 02:06:28 PM
oversimplified example.

we can bet matrix three of EC

say,
red vs black in matrix three

when you see

rbr
rbr
brb. ..that a pattern, what the probability that a coincidence, will happen, or repeat...?

when after numerous matrix,

rbr
rbr........will next three spins be brb..?


All it takes is this sequence: RBRBRBRBRBRBRBRB to kill your matrix, likewise for FTL.
Reoccurring patterns is happening all the time, for example the thirds 1/3, 2/3 is the most persistent pattern in the roulette history, why?
It is because it uses any number to reach the same total ratio, a pattern which includes only black or only red numbers has an overall half probability to form in the first place since your definition of it restricts the numbers which it could combine.
But if it has less ways to happen this also means less bets for you to win, you are not reducing only the possibility to lose, but to win as well!
Variance is a two edged sword, don't focus only on 1 side...!
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 23, 2018, 07:54:30 AM
thanks BlueAngel for your view.

RBR
BRB...1st coincidence
RBR
BRB...2nd coincidence
RBRB

wonder how many more coincidence will persist...
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: alrelax on October 24, 2018, 05:18:07 PM
What so many (countless) players do not even consider is, "The event I am wagering for or told to wager, does it even actually exist or just occasionally happen"? 

IMO and experience playing in B&M's, that is the number one thing that fuels with extreme emotional and overpowering 'false positives' the player that is actually playing live and gambling. 

Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: Blue_Angel on October 26, 2018, 08:30:53 AM
I'd like to add something about your dozens/columns matrix.


If we would use 3 x 3 matrix in order to cross reference rows and columns it would look like this:


1,2,3 horizontal rows as reference to dozens.
A,B,C vertical columns as reference for columns.


Let's say that the last spin was number 24, it belongs on 2nd dozen and C column, write on the top left box 2 C.
Since there are more ways to have 2 different dozens and columns on 3 spins we should bet for the other 2 dozens and columns simultaneously.
So the bet would be dozens 1,3 and columns A,B, total 4 units.
For the example's sake the next result is 21, which belongs to the same dozen and column, we lose 4 units and you write on top middle box of the matrix 2 C again.


There 9 boxes for equivalent total of results, out of 9 spins we are betting max 8 times, from those 8 we are expecting 1 simultaneous win for dozen and column, the payout is x2 net.
Divide -4 draw-down by 2 net payout = 2 but since we want to win rather than break even we would bet 3 units by 2 dozens and 2 columns = 12 units bet.
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: Blue_Angel on October 26, 2018, 09:20:52 AM
The third result loses for dozens as the 2nd repeats, but the column changes from C to A as the 13 comes.
So we lose -3 on top of current balance of -4 and now is -7, divide it by 2 and we find 3.5 which means 4 units per dozen and column for a total of 16 units (4 x 4).
Write 2 A on the top right grid of the matrix, now we bet dozens 1,3 and columns B, C.
2C 2C 2A
1A 1B 1C
3C 3A 2B

Let's say we lose 5 more bets, -7 + -4 = -11/2 = 6, -11 + -6 = -17/2= 9, -17 + -9 = -26/2= (13) 14, -26 + -14 = -40/2= (20) 21, -40 + -21 = -61/2 = 31 units x 4 (2 dozens + 2 columns) = 124 units max bet + 61 draw-down = 185 units BR.
This final 8th bet/9th spin concludes the series with a profit of 1 unit.
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on October 28, 2018, 03:26:46 AM
Thanks Alrelax,
Thanks BlueAngel, for your interesting matrix,

Coincidence does happen but to extended limit.
Title: Re: COINCIDENCE, the theory.
Post by: Blue_Angel on October 28, 2018, 04:42:53 AM
Another way to bet 2 dozens + 2 columns simultaneously is to look for repeat of dozen and column in last 2 spins, in such case bet the other 2 dozens and columns.
Also when there are 2 different dozens and 2 different columns on the last 2 spins then bet all those for the 3rd spin to be double repeat.


We are betting against: 111, 222, 333 and 123, 132, 231, 213, 312, 321, for dozens and columns simultaneously.
Those are 9 permutations, we have 18 on our side, double more!
We double win from column and dozen by 16 numbers, it's very hard for 16 numbers losing 8 bets consecutively.
From the other side there are 5 numbers which make us lose all bets, those 5 numbers could come for maximum 7 times in a row, since the last 2 results are the trigger we could have 5 loses ahead of us in some extremely rare situations.