Digging your way out of the hole

TwoCatSam · November 17, 2012, 05:15:14 PM

All

I find that gambling boils down to this: I win a few bets and then spend hours digging my way out of the hole. This is what would happen with PB if you lost. You lose seven and have to win the next seven to get even. Lose again during the recession and you will have to spend longer at the table to get even.

Not picking on PB. The G.U.T. is the same. Every system I ever played is the same.

I guess I'm used to continued success. With a guitar, if you learn it you learn it. It doesn't go away.

In my business, when I made money it was mine. Very slim chance of losing it. Very tiny!

With gambling, you win six units and go into the hole and spend two days trying to get back to where you are +6. I have come to realize this is the nature of the beast.

Anyone care to comment?

Sam

JohnLegend · November 17, 2012, 05:39:32 PM

Quote from: TwoCatSam on November 17, 2012, 05:15:14 PM
All

I find that gambling boils down to this: I win a few bets and then spend hours digging my way out of the hole. This is what would happen with PB if you lost. You lose seven and have to win the next seven to get even. Lose again during the recession and you will have to spend longer at the table to get even.

Not picking on PB. The G.U.T. is the same. Every system I ever played is the same.

I guess I'm used to continued success. With a guitar, if you learn it you learn it. It doesn't go away.

In my business, when I made money it was mine. Very slim chance of losing it. Very tiny!

With gambling, you win six units and go into the hole and spend two days trying to get back to where you are +6. I have come to realize this is the nature of the beast.

Anyone care to comment?

Sam

Sam regarding PB, I like to think of it as two steps forward and one step backwards. You see what happened to Subby at the start of the SPERAMUS QUEST. He won 7 then lost one. Now at last post he has won 12 straight. And his not even using a recovery bet.

The beauty of H.A.R is you will at some point ride a winning streak that puts you in a nice place. This is how it will work. Over the next 6 months Subby will see it all. If he gets a streak like I've had playing less than 6 games a day.

He will move beyond negative figures PERMANENTLY. And you will all start to see PBs value.

Bally6354 · November 17, 2012, 05:54:09 PM

My comment would be that I think it's important to take a break from gambling now and again and recharge the batteries or it all becomes a bit of a drudgery.

Especially for us guys!! Let's face it. Most of us are hardcore and obsessed with the game.
Sometimes you just have to take the money out and spend it on something and appreciate what you have done rather than churn it backwards and forwards for days.

Gambling is a strange affair and I got a lot more excitement and fun out of it when I was a losing reckless gambler rather than the studious accountant type gambler that I am now.
In fact I gamble far less nowadays because it's too much like bloody hard work.

They say a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. You have reached the twilight zone Sam.

Gizmotron · November 17, 2012, 06:27:40 PM

Sam, I came to the very same conclusion years ago. I decided to stop opening my sessions by digging a hole. I also moved on to a two level flat betting method, no progressions. I look at the current conditions. If that works as a bet selection method then I bet big while it's working. Otherwise I flat bet small. This keeps me from digging big holes.

Trebor · November 17, 2012, 07:53:39 PM

I feel I've reached the point where I can avoid losing overall. The problem is I cannot keep hold of my gains.

I don't know how to change that although I hope to find out.

Trebor

TwoCatSam · November 18, 2012, 12:53:04 AM

Quote from: Trebor on November 17, 2012, 07:53:39 PM
I feel I've reached the point where I can avoid losing overall. The problem is I cannot keep hold of my gains.

I don't know how to change that although I hope to find out.

Trebor

T

Would you elaborate on that statement? What do you mean..can't keep hold of my gains?

Sam

esoito · November 18, 2012, 02:07:24 AM

And isn't there an element of contradiction there? (Avoid losing...can't keep gains...)

Trebor · November 18, 2012, 10:30:31 AM

I know.

I would need to look closely at my play to explain. All I know is that I have good winning periods and some losses. My bankroll seems to overall stay pretty level.

Trebor

JohnLegend · November 18, 2012, 10:56:27 AM

Quote from: Trebor on November 18, 2012, 10:30:31 AM
I know.

I would need to look closely at my play to explain. All I know is that I have good winning periods and some losses. My bankroll seems to overall stay pretty level.

Trebor

Trebor needs to apply money management to his play to pull out in front. He has had a winning streak of 19 games. So he can get decent runs. His sample is much too small to form any conclusions. I had periods where I lost 3 games out of 10.

It happens. Its the longterm and longterm ONLY you think about. When that 20 plus streak arrives. You see why this all works.

Trebor · November 18, 2012, 01:36:56 PM

Perhaps your right JL.

I posted somewhere else that you seem to be saying more and more that PB won't win without smart MM which wasn't a prerequisite originally.

I've nothing against any sort of staking plan if it actually works.

I've just checked. My small sample so far shows a loss of -2. With smart MM it's +28.

That could easily be wiped out by a bad run.

Trebor

TwoCatSam · November 18, 2012, 03:29:49 PM

"I've just checked. My small sample so far shows a loss of -2. With smart MM it's +28."

Trebor

Not trying to be a jerk, but will you use that same MM in the future? Many people look back and say, "Oh, if....." but you can't do that moving forward. Here's the way it sounds:

"OK, I would have just used a Martingale here. Oh, here I would be taking a break because I'm playing hit and run. Wow! I would have won 1,000 units."

Sam

GLC · November 18, 2012, 04:47:23 PM

Sam, This is indeed the nature of progressions. We win a lot of quick units and then we have a bad run that drives us into the hole. Now comes the decision. Do we stay at small stakes to climb out over time or do we keep betting larger and larger bets to try to recover quickly at the risk of going even deeper into the hole more quickly.

That's what a fibonacci does. It gets you out of the hole with only 2 wins back to back or 2 out of 3 wins. But, if you don't get those wins quickly, you can find yourself betting all that money you earned in your business.

I've developed, who hasn't, progressions that recover with only 3 wins or 3 out of 4 wins or any number you want. The problem is when you're betting large units hoping to recover quickly, you can just as easily run into another bad losing streak and next thing you know, you're practically buried alive.

Sometimes, I look again at a simple progression of like 1 then 2 or 1-2-3(4) or whatever. This is just a small step away from a flat bet. Actually, if you remember some of my bloviating I presented the idea that every bet is just a camoflauged flat bet.

My favorite bet is still the flat bet parlay. Bet 1 unit and any time you win, you let your bet and all wins ride until you have enough money on the table to cover all previous losses and then you pull it back. You may have to let it ride up to 5, 6 or more times. When this happens, you can set a cap on the parlays of say 3 or 4 and recover in smaller chunks.

At least betting this way, we can quit at any point because all we lose on a loss is 1 more unit.

The extreme of Giz's method is the "Target betting method". Flat bet 1 unit until a win and then bet all previous losses for a 2nd win in a row. I know this isn't what Giz is presenting, so I don't want to misrepresent his betting methodology, it's just what I thought of when I read his explanation.

If you find a remedy, we're all ears.

GLC

TwoCatSam · November 18, 2012, 04:56:37 PM

George

Here is the scenario I encounter. My progression climbs to the point I can't take it anymore and I quit. When I start again, I start at .50 and the wins come like crazy. Then I wonder, should I have resumed my progression where I left off? I would have won. What if I got a second RFH?

There seems to be no answer.

Sam

Bally6354 · November 18, 2012, 04:59:46 PM

Quote from: GLC on November 18, 2012, 04:47:23 PM

My favorite bet is still the flat bet parlay. Bet 1 unit and any time you win, you let your bet and all wins ride until you have enough money on the table to cover all previous losses and then you pull it back. You may have to let it ride up to 5, 6 or more times. When this happens, you can set a cap on the parlays of say 3 or 4 and recover in smaller chunks.

At least betting this way, we can quit at any point because all we lose on a loss is 1 more unit.

Sounds good to me George. I don't think I could stomach making a 100+ unit bet or whatever needing it to win.

Trebor · November 18, 2012, 05:05:59 PM

Sam, I hope I don't sound like I'm whinging because I'm not.

What I'm trying to do is test PB for my own benefit because in the past it didn't work for me. Laying a ghost if you like.

I'm only playing for pennies so never any hurt done.

I'm just asking, should this not win with the basic 3 stage marty according to JL's own statistics. Any winning ratio better than 7/1 should and he claims 10/1 at least. If it does then I would expect the MM plan to to improve the situation.

My reply that you responded to referred only to PB because JL assumed that was my problem.