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Forums => Baccarat Forum => Topic started by: alrelax on August 28, 2022, 04:02:08 AM

Title: Simply Baccarat and Advantage Playing
Post by: alrelax on August 28, 2022, 04:02:08 AM
Much has been written on baccarat, however the highest majority of the published books, manuals and Internet Experts are offering worthless and even harmful material. As far as the systems available, they are virtually worthless as well.

There are 'useful' and 'proven' advantages that if coupled with experience, playing with complete conscious thought and knowledge of avoiding emotional distractions, can and will give the player powerful tools to allow him to capitalize on opportunistic chances that do present themselves quite frequently.

With the above said, here's the problem. Unlike roulette, craps, etc., Baccarat is played with a shoe of cards that are not continuously shuffled or compromised in anyway after the initial shuffle and burn cards are removed, because there are no player options to draw or stand, etc. So, all in all, the events happening in sections of the shoe are not truly independent, they are set to be presented and will be presented no matter what any player may do, wager or believe. While it may not be immediately apparent that all those Systems and Mechanical Pattern and Wagering selections are doomed, they really are.

You see, the game of baccarat has extremely enormous variability in its results, which easily confuses systems and mechanical pattern wagering players into believing they are playing with a winning system.  And as well, that huge variability easily fools and causes frustration among the others that believe they found an easy game to capitalize on.

The card count and everything related to it cannot be applied in any way that would consistently allow a player to be advantaged. In fact, it would in most cases, be harmful to the player. This is because the linear count is either saying we have an advantage when we do not or we greatly overestimate our advantage when we do not really have one at all. And if you truly understand linear estimates you will clearly see what I am talking about.

To me this states in black-and-white that the best linear estimate is not the best estimate to use in baccarat. Perfect card counting in baccarat would produce horrible results and linear counting systems along with any type of progressive (positive or negative) systems by definition do even worse.

Hence my conclusion. You have to employ a solid Money Management Method that guarantees a hold and application of your wins, along with opportunistic wagering employing positive progressions within a section of the shoe before the turning point. That is the must intelligent way to play the game with any type of advantage for risking your capital. As far as some Holy Grail Angle to beat the game of baccarat, it simply does not exist.
Title: Re: Simply Baccarat and Advantage Playing
Post by: KungFuBac on August 29, 2022, 02:05:13 PM
Thx alrelax--this essay as well as the last three are good reads.

"...Much has been written on baccarat; however, the highest majority of the published books, manuals and Internet Experts are offering worthless and even harmful material. As far as the systems available, they are virtually worthless as well.  .."
     I agree and IMO the main reason is they focus on telling players how to lose less fast(Not how to win more than we lose). So a newbie player thinks the increased longevity of their buyin translates to profits. Another thought I always have is if the system seller has developed a guaranteed money-making method then how did they have the time(or desire) to "write a book" or make utube videos, and then decide its only worth $99(asking price), just to help mankind, ,...etc.
     The pos thing about systems and books is that every single book or system I have reviewed always offers at least one thing that I have found beneficial. Starting out I may have benefited from bet size to buyin ratios guidelines, sometimes simply what not to do. I've often considered how beneficial it would be if we went to the office supply store and purchased an ink stamp/pad(old school where u had a stamp/pad in red ink): DDT or DOT, for DontDoThat or DoOppositeThat.  As we read the books simply stamp most of the authors recommendations.
I will say that all books I've read I have actually received value for my $9.99 or 14.99 cost, as there is usually something of benefit.

Its all about money management/capitalizing when guessing more correct vs incorrect.


alrelax:

"...Unlike roulette, craps, etc., Baccarat is played with a shoe of cards that are not continuously shuffled or compromised in anyway after the initial shuffle and burn cards are removed, because there are no player options to draw or stand, etc. So, all in all, the events happening in sections of the shoe are not truly independent  ..."
     
     To my thinking this "less-independence" and finiteness of Bac is what separates it from other often-compared games.
More later.


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Simply Baccarat and Advantage Playing
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 30, 2022, 11:40:21 PM
Good advices.

as.
Title: Re: Simply Baccarat and Advantage Playing
Post by: alrelax on August 31, 2022, 02:37:46 PM
KFB,

" I will say that all books I've read I have actually received value for my $9.99 or 14.99 cost, as there is usually something of benefit."

Absolutely, didn't mean to give the impression that 100% of content was worthless.  Let me rephrase, few pieces here and there can help someone who looks for ideas, tips and tricks that has the wherewithal to use it in real play. 

Yes, I agree about books in general, BUT NOT system books or so called, 'Manual Books', etc.

I have a lot of books, probably 40 plus, wrote up a few and took some pics, stopped because of lack of interest.

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