I was doing some testing tonight with the mongoose staking plan and decided to tweak it to play double dozens. It went rather well in the limited testing I completed. It is slightly different to the original mongoose.
There are three steps to this tweak....
Step 1 is a parlay attempt.
So I am looking for two consecutive hits on the double dozens. A loss on the first or second bet is a complete loss.
example:
1a) Bet 1 unit on 1st dozen and 1 unit on 2nd dozen.
if win....
1b) Bet 1.5 units on 1st dozen and 1.5 units on 2nd dozen.
so.....
L is a total loss.
WL is a total loss.
WW is a win and move on to Step 2.
Step 2 is a possible two step progression.
1a) Bet 0.75 units on 1st dozen and 0.75 units on second dozen. (if win, move to step 3)
if I lose the above bet.....
1b) Bet 1.50 units on 1st dozen and 1.50 units on second dozen. (if win, move to step 3)
A loss on 1b is a total loss.
Step 3 is a possible two step progression.
1a) Bet 0.75 units on 1st dozen and 0.75 units on 2nd dozen. (if win...end of game!)
if I lose the above bet....
1b) Bet 1.50 units on 1st dozen and 1.50 units on 2nd dozen. (win or lose = end of game)
Here are all the possible scenarios....
WW/W/W +4.0 units.
WW/W/LW +3.25 units.
WW/LW/W +3.25 units.
WW/LW/LW +2.50 units.
WW/LL -2.0 units.
WW/LW/LL -2.0 units.
WW/W/LL -1.25 units.
L -2.0 units.
WL -2.0 units.
cheers
Here are 20 games hot off the press......
1) WW/W/W +4.0
2) L -2.0
3) L -2.0
4) WL -2.0
5) L -2.0
6) L -2.0
7) WL -2.0
8} WW/LW/LL -2.0
9) WW/LW/LW +2.5
10) L -2.0
11) WL -2.0
12) WW/LW/LW +2.5
13) WW/LW/W +3.25
14) WW/W/LW +3.25
15) L -2.0
16) WW/W/W +4.0
17) WW/LL -2.0
18) WL -2.0
19) WW/W/W +4.0
20) WW/LW/W +3.25
W/L game registry = W LLLLLLL W LL WWW L W LL WW
I was just playing 1st and 2nd dozen all the time. It was killing me early alternating between 1st and 3rd.
[attachimg=1]
clever stuff--thanks for the post
Thanks Tomla,
I think there is a lot of scope with this one. It is doing well in my testing using just a fixed 2 dozens betting every spin.
Quick test this morning....
1) L -2.0
2) WW/LW/LW +2.5
3) L -2.0
4) L -2.0
5) WW/LW/W +3.25
6) WL -2.0
7) WW/W/W +4.0
8} WW/W/W +4.0
W/L game registry L W LL W L WW
[attachimg=1]
It works like a charm when a dozen is particularly cold.
In this example....The 3rd dozen only appeared 9 times out of the 37 spins!
1) L -2.0
2) WW/W/LW +3.25
3) WW/LW/W +3.25
4) L -2.0
5) L -2.0
6) WW/W/LW +3.25
7) WW/W/LW +3.25
8} L -2.0
9) WW/W/W +4.0
10) WW/W/W +4.0
11) WW/W/LW +3.25
[attachimg=1]
I am doing ad-hoc testing on this one in between other things.....but it seems to have a knack of holding it's own and then some!
[attachimg=1]
just continually playing 1st + 2nd dozen in these tests.
The above results total around 35 units in roughly 220 spins. So it's not a unit-a-spin boom and bust progression. More of a grind.
Here is where you will get murdered however following a fixed bet selection like I have been doing using the 1st and 2nd dozen.
[attachimg=1]
The 1st dozen has underperformed by 3 standard deviations and who is to say it will end there.
It wiped out 25 units of the 35 units profit that I had gained.
You can use this variance to your advantage when playing dozens and columns if you keep on the right side of what's appearing.
So taking the above into account. Let's look at a better way than betting a fixed 2 dozens on every spin.
Take a look at the picture....
[attachimg=1]
The first column shows you cycle of absence.
3,2,2,2,3,3,2 and the 1st dozen is missing.
B,B,A,B,A,A,A,B,B,A,B,B,B and the C column is missing.
So obviously you would keep playing dozens 2 + 3 or columns A + B in the above scenarios.
Now let's look at three factor alternation.
1,3,2,3,2,3,1,2,1 and you can see the dozens keep alternating.
C,B,C,A,B,C,B,A,C,B,C,A,C,B and here the columns are alternating.
So you would keep betting the opposite 2 dozens or columns of whatever last appeared.
Looking out for whatever one of these options is performing the best would fare better in my opinion than just using a fixed 2 dozens or columns approach.
cheers
I have played this a lot over the last few months at B+M casinos with some good results.
What I like to do is monitor both the dozens and the columns and see which one is just producing single losses in the L/W registry. (There is really no need to be betting every spin) I will bet the one with the least concentration of L's.
[attachimg=1]
The above picture shows how I chart in the casino.
Looking at the dozens....
The 2nd and 3rd are showing. (Therefore the missing dozen is 1)
The 1st dozen eventually shows and the last three results are 3rd, 2nd and 1st....so now it's alternating and I would be looking for the 2nd and 3rd dozen on the next spin. The 2nd dozen appears and so I am looking for the 1st and 3rd dozen on the next spin to continue with the alternation.
It's easy once you get the hang of it.
This modified 'mongoose' progression seems to work really well with the double dozens. It throws up enough wins in clumps to forge ahead.
cheers
Here is another angle to attack this from if you have the time!
Some numbers from today.....
[attachimg=1]
Looking at the dozens, you can see that there is a high concentration of L's over a short space of time.
So the mongoose double dozens strategy would not be turning over a profit here. (at least not using the dozens)
But the good news is that a string of L's for two dozens means there is an opportunity to attack the other single dozen.
Looking down to the number 23, the missing dozen is 1.
Dozen 1 then appears (loss) and now you have alternate 2/3.
Dozen 1 appears again (loss) and now you have missing 3.
Dozen 3 appears (loss) and now you have missing 2.
So you can choose to play these single dozens or columns when you have a high concentration of L's in the L/W registry.
It's just another string to add to the bow. It's always a good idea to have several angles to attack from forming more of a strategy as opposed to a mechanical method. You can never say how things are going to pan out beforehand and it is better to be prepared for whatever you may encounter at the tables.
cheers
bally you still use this?
Quote from: Tomla on March 15, 2015, 11:36:22 PM
bally you still use this?
yep...still going strong with this and my pairs betting.
It is easy to play (and profitable most times) when I can't be bothered to bring out the heavy armoury.
I love the mongoose. My favourite progression of all time.
cheers
i still strongly believe in two dozens bet. Anyone of you could code it in Rx?Thanks!!![smiley]aes/thumb.png[/smiley]
I'm still trying to get a grasp on this double dozen mongoose or the regular mongoose--the worst part is i once understood it-lol ( a great explanation in front of me)
I have been trying a regular labby and it doesn't look too bad and escalates less than I thought. the wins come in between losses on a 66% winner
wwwwLLL wL WWW would be ,+1, +1, +1, +1 ---s makes it 11 the second 1122, third loss 112233 the win makes it 1223 loss makes it 122344 w=2234 w=23 w=0 : plus 4 for that segment
Hello Tomla,
GLC (George) on the Rouletteforum cc had the best explanation for the mongoose that I have read on the net.
I will post that up here for anybody that's interested...........
Mongoose bet sequence has 7 possible bets
The first two are a parlay
Three and four are a capped martingale
Five and six is a flatbet
Seven is to recover a lost 5 and 6 flatbet.
The 7 steps are in 3 sets. If you lose any set, you start over.
Set #1 is the parlay.
If you lose either of these bets you will be -1, start over.
If you win them both you are +3 so move to set 2.
Set #2 is the 2 step martingale starting with 1 unit or whatever your unit level is for this attack.
If you lose both of these bets you will be even having won 3 units in set 1 and having lost the 3 units in this set. Start over.
If you win either of these bets you will be at +4 (+3 from set #1; +1 from set #2).
If you win either of these bets move to set 3.
Set #3 starts with a 1 unit bet. If you win bet #5, you will be at +5 which is our goal. Start over.
If you lose bet #5, bet #6 is a flatbet equal to #5. If you win bet #6 you will be even for set 3 so rebet #5.
If you lost bet #5 and #6, you go to bet #7.
Bet #7 has 2 options:
1) bet 2 units. A win breaks you even for set #3 so you can rebet #5. A loss brings us to even so we start over.
2) bet 3 units. A win nets us +1 unit for set 3 which gives us our 5 unit win for the mongoose sequence. Start over. A loss of 3 units places us at -1 for the sequence and we start over.
That's how you play the mongoose. It gives you a pretty good chance of winning. Each win recovers 5 losses. I'm not saying it changes the odds to our favor, but it does give us more time for a little luck to help us.
Here's another way of expaining it:
(1) Bet 1 and 2 which are a Parley – Bet 1 is 1 unit and if it wins then bet 2 units
If either 1 or 2 loses then you go to the next figure in the Progression. If both bets win, next:
(2) Bet 3 is 1 unit and if this wins then go to (3), but if it loses then multiply
the bet x 2 and try to win bet 4. If either bet 3 or 4 wins then go to (3).
If bets 3 and 4 lose then you go back to (1) and the next figure in the
Progression. However, because you have already won +3 units from (1) you
don't actually lose.
(3) Bet 5 is 1 unit and if it wins then you are finished (in profit with +5) .
If bet 5 of 1 unit loses, you bet bet 6 which is 1 unit also and if bet 6 then wins, you go back and try bet 5 of 1 unit again.
If bet 5 of 1 unit loses and then bet 6 of 1 unit also loses, you bet bet 7 of 3 units.
Win 7 and the game finishes (in profit of +5)
Lose bet 7 and you are -1 for this attack. Go back to (1) and the next figure in the Progression.
...................Of course, that's for the E/C's.
I slightly modified it for the double dozens.
There is still a parlay bet for the first stage (much easier to accomplish regularly when playing the double dozens or columns)
The second stage still gives you a second bite at the cherry with the martingale component for the second bet of this stage. (One difference however is that you don't get to keep your starting stake in this version like you do with the original playing the E/C's if you lose both bets in stage two)
The slight difference to the original is in my stage three where it is just a carbon copy of stage two (I must have lost inspiration at this point, lol) The original on the E/C's can have three steps to this stage and possibly more.
Working out the staking is a little bit more complicated as well with my version using the double dozens.
The casino I regularly visit has a £5 minimum on the dozens/columns. But I need to start with 2 x £10 bets. Then I can reduce it to £7.50 for the first part of stage 2 and first part of stage 3 if all goes well.
I played this last night on the dozens/columns as outlined above and won +15 units fairly quickly and skedaddled. It's easier to track than my pairs ideas across the three E/C's if I am honest.
cheers.
Here is the basic mongoose straight from the horses mouth.
(excuse the hand in the second pic, lol)
There are a variety of different ways to play the mongoose as explained in the book.
They range from 'basic' to 'short cycle' to the 'aggressive'.
There are 7 different progressions in the 'progression chapter' in this book.
1)The perfect unit.
2)The pit bull.
3)The bricklayers wall.
4)The boxer.
5)The mongoose.
6)The hammer.
7)The t-square.
They range from the most passive and conservative (perfect unit) to the most aggressive (the hammer)
One day, I will get around to reviewing them.
Hmmmm
Interesting: "cycle of absence" = sleepers; "columns are alternating" = singles
What book is this?
Craig Greiner....''The Future Gambler''
https://www.amazon.co.uk/future-gambler-Craig-Greiner/dp/0964404109
It was hard enough getting hold of a copy 3 years ago. I think that he only ever had a few hundred published. Anyway, I can't speak highly enough of this book.
cheers
Cool, thanks.
Kind of funny - I left that page on Amazon then it said, "Back to The Future Gambler"
I'll let Future 3Nine worry about where to grab a copy.
I have read some of Priyanka's work over the last few weeks regarding the VDW/AP bet and was also interested enough in the stats for the dozens/columns to have a play around with things. So well I am around, I am happy to show you guys what I was working on. I did find something that does ok a lot of the time.
It revolves looking for an AP in the dozens/columns. I will grab some numbers from today at Wiesbaden and show an example.
Here are the first 6 games.....
[attachimg=1]
Only play for the ''diff''
The only slight difference is that I am playing 20 numbers or 10 splits. It more or less explains itself. You write down the number and what dozen/column combo it belongs to. You get to the missing dozen and column and then it's either ''same'' or ''diff'' depending on what appears next.
So in the first game...
29 3B
01 1A so the ''missing'' OR furthest back dozen/column combo is 2C.
Next number out is....
03 1C so 2B is now missing and because one of the missing changed, (the C changed to B) it's marked as ''diff''.
There were 7 bets in the above 6 games. 5 W vs 2 L. (One game did not qualify because of the ''same'' winning on an AP of 234)
Just my twist on it.
Played another 4 games using the same spin set.
[attachimg=1]
And just out of interest I decided to mark in RED where the ''same'' bet would have lost an AP coup over the 10 games.
[attachimg=2]
[attachimg=3]
So 10 losing ''SAME'' AP bets as opposed to only 3 losing ''DIFF'' bets.
Playing ''DIFF'' over 10 games was a 220 chip outlay for a return of 288....so +66.
Playing ''SAME'' over the 10 games was a 192 chip outlay for a return of 72....so -120.