This is a very interesting thread regarding Ladbrokes and Bet365 trying to discourage the arbers. It is proving profitable to follow.
http://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/29510953/365-and-laddies-stoop-to-new-caped-crusader-low?pg=1 (http://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/29510953/365-and-laddies-stoop-to-new-caped-crusader-low?pg=1)
:thumbsup:
Thanks for that.
As an aside -- Ladbrokes...not happy with them!
I've just been emailed that they are closing all Australian accounts next month as they will no longer operate in Australia!
No reason given. Just a bald statement.
I'm left wondering why and who'll be next...
In an ideal world every country would have a state-run casino with the infrastructure to offer online betting to their citizens.
If they are scared of offshore internet casinos, then the answer is "Embrace and Extend".
A state-run wagering house offers both the state their so-much-sought-after gambling-related income (not only taxes) as well as convenience to the punters.
Of course, land-based casinos would push against them, but... "Everything that can go digital will..." :nod:
"Everything that can go digital will..."
Yes, indeed.
I've tried feeding the wife by email.
Sadly, she's losing condition... but I'll get it right eventually. :nod:
Quote from: esoito on December 20, 2012, 08:33:48 AM
"Everything that can go digital will..."
Yes, indeed.
I've tried feeding the wife by email.
Sadly, she's losing condition... but I'll get it right eventually. :nod:
Genuine LOL at that :))
Interesting. There's a lot more scope for corruption in laying rather than backing. After all, it's almost impossible to fix a race so that a horse wins, but how hard is it to make sure it LOSES and get away with it?
Regarding that last question, Bayes, one of Australia's leading jockeys, Damien Oliver, was recently in VERY hot water over a bet he placed on a competing horse in one of his races.
A definite no-no to that sort of behaviour because he would have made darned sure his horse didn't win. He was riding the second favourite.
Former Western Bulldogs footballer and now form analyst/punter Mark Hunter placed the bet of $10,000 on Oliver's behalf on Miss Octopussy with Queensland bookmaker Laurie Bricknell.
The $2.30 favourite, Miss Octopussy won while Oliver rode second favourite, who finished sixth. Stewards have no issue with the way Oliver rode his mount. There was no departure from the usual racing pattern or any other reason to call the ride into question.
Having incurred legal costs at the time, Oliver placed this one-off bet, receiving $11,000 in profit on the wager. Oliver said it was the only time he'd ever placed a bet on a rival horse.
[Source: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/damien-oliver-breaks-down-at-stewards-inquiry/story-e6frg7mf-1226520217239 (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/damien-oliver-breaks-down-at-stewards-inquiry/story-e6frg7mf-1226520217239) ]
It would appear that Ertikaan is not going to be very busy in the 14.00 at Lingfield this afternoon. I will be laying it to win a few pounds.
I think it's fair to say that was a definate non-trier.
Drifted from 13/2 out to 10/1 a few minutes before the race and it finished nowhere. :cheer:
Laddies knew about that one. ;)
I read that whole thread, lol. How do you bet for it NOT to win or come in/place????
QuoteHow do you bet for it NOT to win or come in/place?
By placing a LAY bet @ betfair
Quote from: subby on December 20, 2012, 03:03:19 PM
I read that whole thread, lol. How do you bet for it NOT to win or come in/place? ???
Subby
Here's a link to explain how lay betting works on Betfair:
http://betting.betfair.com/education/the-site/what-is-lay-betting-2-300111.html (//http://)
It gives a useful overview of what it's all about.
Laying the favourite is quite popular (after some suitable filtering, of course) and Job Burgess has written a very popular, and widely-acclaimed ebook about how to apply suitable filters:
http://www.false-favourites.co.uk/ (//http://)
:thumbsup:
Actually, there was always a way to lay horses even in the pre-Betfair era. You just bet every horse to win except the one you wanted to lay, using dutching (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutching).
The lay today is 'Bubbly Bailey' in the 13.35 at Lingfield.
I thought this was an interesting thread to start because it is not really just a system as such.
The markets have always been manipulated by the big players for their own ends.
Now why go to the trouble of studying form when you can let the 'experts' do it for you.
All you then need to do is learn to read the signals.
I joined a racing forum a few years ago because they had a casino section. They wanted to burn me at the stake after I tried to explain a few of my ideas ;D
They told me roulette was a negative expectation game! :zzz:
That I could never win at the game! :nope:
So I went over to read what they had to offer! It was the biggest load of curve fitted nonsense that I had ever seen. I got banned after telling them that. :forbidden:
I have a book on an old hard drive which was going to be published some time ago about horseracing and how to read the markets. It was actually banned from publication. The major bookmakers in the UK took out an injunction because they did not want this information made available to the general public. It did go into great detail about the relationships between different factions in racing and spelled things out pretty clear. That PC crashed but I will take the hard drive out and see if I can retrieve the data. I will put that up here if the hard drive was not damaged and the file lost.
All gambling is not really as it appears. At least that's the way I look at it now.
Casinos and bookmakers are offering you a losing proposition if you follow the herd.
It really is a case of developing your own style and playing a different kind of game to everyone else if you want to come out on top.
cheers
Bally6354 wrote:
Quote
All gambling is not really as it appears. At least that's the way I look at it now.
Casinos and bookmakers are offering you a losing proposition if you follow the herd.
It really is a case of developing your own style and playing a different kind of game to everyone else if you want to come out on top.
Totally agree 100%.
A.
Bubbly Bailey finished 9th. :cheer:
This one never drifted in the market and hovered around the 5/1 mark for most of the day. I don't think it was wanted today as it was beaten after about 3 furlongs never getting in a blow!
Quote from: Bally6354 on December 21, 2012, 10:55:51 AM
Casinos and bookmakers are offering you a losing proposition if you follow the herd.
Agreed. I think bookies work on a 10% margin, more if the odds are longer. You can do better at Betfair, but then you have to pay the 5% commission. Looking at it that way, casino games like roulette and baccarat don't seem so bad. Of course, the "math boyz" will say that the odds are fixed in the casino so there's no way you can win even though the negative expectation is less. I say - hogwash! :thumbsdown:
Let them chuckle derisively, some of us know better. :whistle:
Quote from: Bayes on December 21, 2012, 03:19:13 PM
Looking at it that way, casino games like roulette and baccarat don't seem so bad. Of course, the "math boyz" will say that the odds are fixed in the casino so there's no way you can win even though the negative expectation is less. I say - hogwash! :thumbsdown:
Let them chuckle derisively, some of us know better. :whistle:
I hope you're right Bayes - to be at St. Peter's Gate (or Hell's Door >:D ) knowing we never had a chance anyway would be gutting!Quote from: Bally6354 on December 21, 2012, 02:51:50 PMBubbly Bailey finished 9th. :cheer:
This one never drifted in the market and hovered around the 5/1 mark for most of the day. I don't think it was wanted today as it was beaten after about 3 furlongs never getting in a blow!
I watched the odds looking for a sign O:-) The winner & another came in just before it started.. Is it herd mentality or people with the eye & in the know? (There was almost £850,000 on this race on Betfair, so it's not track-side punters is it? Or are they relaying messages?... ??)
Also read the Betfair forum page on Laddies & 365, do you ever feel this is a hard way to make an easy living??
Quote from: monaco on December 21, 2012, 05:51:41 PM
Also read the Betfair forum page on Laddies & 365, do you ever feel this is a hard way to make an easy living??
I don't think there is an easy way to make money at gambling. I would say the majority of the 1 or 2% who do make money from it are obsessed and would get a shock if they broke down the winnings into an hourly rate.
Quote from: Bally6354 on December 21, 2012, 10:55:51 AM
I have a book on an old hard drive which was going to be published some time ago about horseracing and how to read the markets. It was actually banned from publication. The major bookmakers in the UK took out an injunction because they did not want this information made available to the general public. It did go into great detail about the relationships between different factions in racing and spelled things out pretty clear. That PC crashed but I will take the hard drive out and see if I can retrieve the data. I will put that up here if the hard drive was not damaged and the file lost.
The guy was open this morning and did manage to save some of my old stuff! :cheer:
Here it is.....
https://www.dropbox.com/s/c6xyftzkim1j2r1/Isiris%20Unveiled.pdf (https://www.dropbox.com/s/c6xyftzkim1j2r1/Isiris%20Unveiled.pdf)
That's extraordinarily kind and generous of you to make this available.
Thank you.
A LOT of work just judging by the size of the file !!!
Hopefully the injunction is lifted.
If so, why not consider self-publishing? Monetize all your hard work
There are several sites that will handle that for you -- printing hard copies on demand, handling marketing, sales and so on.
esoito
I just hope a few of you get some enjoyment from reading the book and that it maybe helps some of you with your betting. Roulette is my main focus and most of my energy goes in that direction at the moment. I don't really have time for anything else.
cheers :thumbsup:
Hi Bally, where can I read about your recent roulette book? (https://imagicon.info/cat/10-3/1.gif)
@ Peleus
Sadly, Bally went AWOL a while ago so he's unlikely to see your message. :(
It's been so long since I downloaded the file.
If I knew what it was called (someone??) I could search my HDD and then offer it to you through my dropbox.
I could be mistaken, but I think his book was about horse racing, not roulette.
Quote from: Badger on December 09, 2014, 06:17:26 AM
I could be mistaken, but I think his book was about horse racing, not roulette.
Ahh...well done, Badger. That rings a bell -- I think you're right.