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Messages - Gizmotron

#1
Quote from: Lungyeh on June 17, 2019, 09:14:51 PM
There was a time when somebody asked if bet selection is more important or money management. The votes were quite evenly split. I chose money management. Until today, I still believe so. Bet selection works for the trenders some times and works for the anti trenders other times. The decider comes down to MM when you are winning and when you are losing.


You have just described the secret to winning. Glen knows this too. A complete discussion on how good players do this is all that is needed to end the games that we love to play. It's not that hard. I'm surprised this is not basic method for all gamblers. My quest to find it started with rule based systems where you try to treat a casino like a personal ATM machine. It seems like that is where most players get started. The need to move past systems and progressions. But as long as people want to discuss systems and progressions we have gambling forums. Good Luck with your new venture Glen.
#2
General Discussion / Re: Help ourselves
January 27, 2019, 01:35:48 PM
Quote from: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on January 27, 2019, 03:07:07 AM
EVERY single SELECTION has a....KILLER SEQUENCES, THAT KILLS YOUR progression  BR!!!!

IDENTIFY them, and avoid them,
only then you reduced your risk....
Any ideas?


Even if you can identify upticks in your charts you can't avoid the big holes created by progressions. And you waste your time if you try to get rich off of positive, even "Up & Pull," progressions because they take away the needed wins to balance. I suggest that you try to win with flat betting combined with no bets. But I doubt that you will let that advice help you.
#3
General Discussion / Re: Help ourselves
January 26, 2019, 09:16:23 PM
Quote from: Jimske on January 26, 2019, 08:56:26 PM
OK, my bad.  I was under the impression you had a prediction method.


No. Prediction is impossible. All I can do is get into synchronization of when my guesses are working. After more than a decade quarreling with Caleb/General/Snowman/Xander/Dr Nobody/etc... I have tried to make it clear that I can't predict any future outcomes. Accept perhaps for this prediction. He will continue to gather his sycophant army to record spins from wheels for him from all over the world. It's nothing less than a Cult following.
#4
General Discussion / Re: Help ourselves
January 26, 2019, 08:28:36 PM
Quote from: alrelax on January 26, 2019, 02:54:13 PM
How does one know when they sit down at the table where they fit in, in those type of charts?  Such as when you look at a weather chart with the time day you know at 11am what temperature or snowfall or precipitation or Sunshine it is going to be by the estimated published rate and you compare that to the time of day it currently is. I understand that, but how do you do that with a gambling chart?


I don't keep a graph when I play. That's just to demonstrate visually that up or down swarms occur while you play. When you see chop you don't visualize valleys, downward slopes, inclines, or mountains. But you can see the slow grind downward in your results. If you keep a chart, it can even be stacks of chips of two different colors, you can show wins or losses. Look at these two charts  wwlwlwwlllwwlwlwlwl  & wwLwLwwLLLwwLwLwLwL. One is easier to read the changes than the other. Now look at this: pbpbpbpppbbbppbb vs pBpBpBpppBBBppBB. Now look at this type of chart: X=XX==X=X=X===X==XXX=. You can stack white chips mixed with red chips to show wins and losses. So you make a best guess on every hand or spin.  You look at what is happening and decide to fund the bets or not. You know when you are in a grind that is upward or downward. You can see a win streak or a losing streak. You can see one side as strong and one side as weak. Nobody can know the future but you can know the middle of something continuing. Anything that continues to keep going is all you need to know. You can know when a perfect win streak stops. You can know when singles on the weak side stop. If you can't see anything continuing then don't fund the guesses. But keep making the guesses based on your best impressions of the trends or patterns anyway. You need a wL list to see what is working even if they are just virtual bets. Does that explain it?
#5
General Discussion / Re: Help ourselves
January 26, 2019, 07:54:16 PM
Quote from: Jimske on January 26, 2019, 05:35:39 PM
It appears that the only regular posters that would disagree are Asym and Giz.


My response already was: "I don't disagree with any of this."


To be quite clear I'll state it again. I agree completely.
#6
General Discussion / Re: Help ourselves
January 26, 2019, 02:17:29 PM
Don't fund the valleys:


This is a graph of 100 spins all bet on Red. It's the same as FTL as far as showing valleys or mountains:


[attachimg=1]
#7
General Discussion / Re: Help ourselves
January 25, 2019, 04:37:44 AM
Quote from: Lungyeh on January 25, 2019, 03:39:49 AM
And soon the winnings and the capital are together decimated. Gizmo despite his professions of his ability to keep track of win/loss had his failings at this precise situation. Perhaps he has improved on it.  But in any case, my moot point is that Loss Management is the key. Not bet selection. But feel free to disagree.


I don't disagree with any of this. And I have improved on this a lot. Yes, this was the monkey on my back. I kept giving back my winnings. What helped the most was noticing that seeing the bigger picture made seeing the bet selections themselves more in the form of bigger waves. I was no longer looking for the short spurts of success. I changed to seeing the entire gambling experience as a single event. The session is a single event with domination, weak side / strong side, as the best trend to look out for. I was using the big Caterpillar D-10 Bulldozer to grind away at the task at hand. That is the big tool to overpower the slow grind downward. But it too can encounter catastrophic losing stretches or streaks just like any other bet selection process. This occurs when you really don't have one side weak and the other side strong. Then your wishful thinking or your impatience takes over and you make risky mistakes. So I stay out of conditions that are not the best.


I added to that bet selection method three net big valued bets and done. An example would be three $250 net wins, $750, and the session was won. I learned that playing this method against seven net lost bets was the "stop loss" point best to use against it. I got good too. It took 2.333 won sessions to make up for one lost session. But with my bulldozer, big picture, bet selection method I was winning 4.666 sessions to each lost session. I had a session win rate of 2 to 1. This is a significant ratio too, as I will show you guys. About 6 months ago I came across a video on how to play the stock market like a casino. That opened my eyes to even a bigger picture. It made it easy now to lose and not get anxious about it. It's just all part of getting the monkey off my back. I use virtual bets, unfunded bet selections, when I can't see the strong side / weak side condition somewhere in my charts. A streak of Bankers is still a short lived strong side. So I get one or two net wins from that. But the goal is to get those three net wins and done. The video will explain the logic here.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRCtBRsLPmk


It's taken me four and a half years to put all this together. I've added something to it in the past month that is interesting, - better even. But I need to prove it works better first before mentioning it.


I hope that makes sense. Hopefully that video will open a few eyes here in the gambling world. It put me on to self control.
#8
Quote from: Lungyeh on January 23, 2019, 07:31:06 PM
Giz has taken over my intended specifications for MY intended app and I can tell you for sure what I had in mind is totally different...


Now I'm intrigued, as a computer programmer, what your intended specifications might actually be.


You are as right as rain in the dry desert, that when in an up-streak period, to bet at least 20 times more than your base bet's value. I also think it is wise of you to figure out best when to back off the stronger bets. There must be some programmers here that want to build your app for you. Usually they chime in by now. I don't have an operators licence for developing for Android or Apple smart phones. I'm on the downside of developing anything much in the future. It takes currently standing software licenses to develop standalone software. At Least in my preferred programming development language. So I hope someone comes forward for you.
#9
Quote from: Lungyeh on January 23, 2019, 08:03:36 AM
The app will not record results to predict the next bet. My idea was to have a recording app to keep track of  numbers of w/l/t and based on certain w/l results will restrict your betting amount. History has not changed the Baccarat outcomes. People win all the time only to hand back the winnings when on a losing streak. The app aims to record and prompt the user about amounts that are allowed to be placed and in certain circumstances, will reject any bets. Of course the user can just ignore but subsequent results will not tally.

The casino is a team. If we act alone the HE will stack against us. For most of us who lack Glen?s self control, we need to gather assistance. I read somewhere of a professional gambler who pays 10% of his winnings to his accomplice manager whose job is to keep the money under control on losing runs. I was hopeful the app could go some way to help.


I understood you well in your earlier posts. I could see that the app would just record W / L / T results. Something like this:


|W|L|T|
| |X| |
|X| | |
|X| | |
| |X| |


There are no Ties in Roulette, so one column can be W or X. My charts in Roulette include the results of 12 different sets of 18 to 20 numbers that form the sides of 6 unique groupings. And it also includes one column for wins and losses. In Baccarat you just have one grouping with the three results to make bet selections from. And you also have the effectiveness of the bet set of three also. Most Baccarat players have a chart as part of the table apparatus. So maybe keeping track of the W/L/T is all the app would need. So can a person use a smart phone or a computer to play Baccarat?


I don't need an app to tell me to drop back to a "no bet," a virtual bet, or a minimum bet. I just use a simple method of dropping back on each lost bet. I still record a bet selection so that I can pick up on what grouping is not working for me. I can then tell if I'm still in a bad streak of guesses. So I still make bet selections continually, I just don't fund the bad streaks. The simple rule to stop funding after a loss is good enough. There is one situation where I stay in there betting and that is when the weak side of the grouping is in a pattern of singles. I might get a string of wins peppered occasionally with a single loss. Like this: wwwLwwLwwwwLwLwwLwww. You can see the single lost bets.


Now If I were to devise a visual dexterity method for Baccarat I would use $5 red chips for wins, $1 white chips for lost bets, and $25 green chips for ties. I would have them in a stack or a tray. You could just look at them at a glance and see the trends. As the game proceeds you could just bull back the farthest back part of the stack as 20 hands back is more than far enough. You could also keep a stack for the P, B, & T and put it right next to the w/L/T stack. If you take off the same amount of old results from each stack at the same time then the two charts will line up symmetrically.
#10
I think the point is to see visually, like visual dexterity, the win / loss effectiveness. I know that we can see the best looking trend that we have ever seen and still enter exactly at the wrong moment. It happens. You can have a perfect downturn during a great swarm of good looking trends. It's just part of randomness and has nothing to do with bad judgement. The point is to not get flustered by it when it happens. Just wait it out for a while. The good stuff will synchronize up with the effectiveness. And that is just too bad for casino owners.
#11
Quote from: Lungyeh on January 23, 2019, 04:10:20 AM
I had thought really, that this app I was looking to build, would be part of an experiment and a personal endeavour and I could easily find someone in my country to do so. I thought to put it on the betselection forum to see if it could generate any interest and discussion.

A separate thread went on incessantly about technology being the wrong approach et cetera etc. The tone was condescending and it left no room for disagreeing points of view. While generally correct about the game, the one moot point is that not everybody is moulded in the form of Glen. Nor do they want to be. And technology is to be utilised for our benefit and assistance. Some don't need it. Some need it. Desperately.


I need the tech desperately when I practice. But sitting with a laptop or an activated phone at a gambling table here in America is strictly verboten. So in Roulette I use hand written charts on index cards. In Craps I custom stack the chips and read the results in the stacks. They encourage multiple value chips in Craps. So I use that. Same for Blackjack too.
#12
You are right Glen, as a techno expert and a real player, I have noticed that hand written charts or secret chip stacking methods are way better because they lend themselves to simplicity. It takes too long to wait on a computer. I can fill in 12 sets of 6 groupings and the win/loss stats on a roulette spin in less than ten seconds. To keep up with the w/L stats & the pass / don't pass on Craps only take 5 seconds with custom stacked chips. And nobody complains.
#13
Quote from: Lungyeh on January 22, 2019, 01:50:12 PM

I wrote somewhere that the randomness of the game accentuated by certain periods of patterns would ensure that anybody at some point in their casino visit be making money based on their own bet selection preferences. But the key to walking out a winner is the ability to ride out the bad or Shar Chi period. It is my contention that loss management is the key to the holy grail. And I would like this small project to earn somebody here something even if it is small. Please PM me. Thank you and God bless


I read the entire thread. It mostly sounded quite familiar. I've been saying for more than a decade that if you want to follow the true trend that really matters then you must look at the effectiveness states. No matter how you come up with a bet selection, and I have always suggested that the method should at least be consistent, you must keep track of your win / loss effectiveness.


So I have moved from double dozens back to EC's. I can now play Baccarat, Blackjack, Roulette, and Craps with equal advantages. It's less volatile and makes following the effectiveness conditions much easier. So here is my last gift to you trend players. The HG is a limited Grand Martingale combined with flat betting. I expect you guys and gals to figure that much out on your own just how I execute it. You must already be a master of reading randomness and exploiting the effectiveness states to make it work. Remember, don't wreck it for everyone.
#14
Quote from: The Crow on October 25, 2018, 01:02:15 AM
Without being too obvious, the message I was trying to convey to Gizmotron is not to disclose his secret because I have seen him work so hard over the years and for him to give it away is a shame. I understand Gizmotron seeks validation, but I believe he will be best served to be quiet and just make money.

The Crow


I got the message and agree with it. It makes no sense to get mad enough to wreck my own future. If I don't want to be mad I'll just have to give up the forums.
#15
And the chart:



W | B  R | O  E | L  H | 0  6 | P | S |  --  SN  --  SP
nb|    X |    X |    X |    X | X | X |  --  01  --  32
nb|    X |    X | X    | X    |   |   |  --  02  --  14
nb|    X |    X |    X | X    |   |   |  --  03  --  36
nb|    X |    X |    X |    X | X | X |  --  04  --  32
nb|    X |    X | X    |    X | X |   |  --  05  --  18
nb| X    |    X |    X |    X |   | X |  --  06  --  20
nb|    X |    X |    X | X    |   | X |  --  07  --  30
nb|    X |    X |    X | X    |   |   |  --  08  --  36
nb|    X | X    | X    | X    | X |   |  --  09  --  01
nb| X    |    X |    X | X    |   |   |  --  10  --  26
X-|    X | X    | X    | X    |   |   |  --  11  --  09 ( $ 0 ) Red
   | X    | X    | X    |    X |   | X |  --  12  --  15 ( $ -90 ) Red
X |    X | X    | X    |    X | X |   |  --  13  --  03 ( $ 0 ) Red
X-|    X | X    | X    |    X | X |   |  --  14  --  03 ( $ 0 ) Odd
X | X    | X    | X    |    X | X |   |  --  15  --  17 ( $ 90 ) Odd
X |    X | X    |    X | X    |   | X |  --  16  --  23 ( $ 180 ) Odd
X-|    X | X    | X    | X    | X |   |  --  17  --  01 ( $ 180 ) Not Specials
   | X    | X    |    X |    X |   | X |  --  18  --  33 ( $ 80 ) Not Specials
   |    X | X    |    X | X    |   | X |  --  19  --  25 ( $ -20 ) Not Specials
  -|    X |    X |    X |    X | X | X |  --  20  --  32 ( $ -20 ) Not Specials
  -|    X |    X |    X |    X | X | X |  --  21  --  32 ( $ -20 ) Not Specials
X |    X |    X |    X |    X |   |   |  --  22  --  34 ( $ 70 ) Even
X |    X |    X | X    |    X | X | X |  --  23  --  12 ( $ 160 ) Even
X |    X |    X | X    | X    |   |   |  --  24  --  14 ( $ 250 ) Even
X | X    |    X | X    | X    | X |   |  --  25  --  02 ( $ 340 ) Even
   | X    | X    |    X |    X | X | X |  --  26  --  31 ( $ 304 ) Even
  -|    X | X    | X    |    X | X | X |  --  27  --  05 ( $ 304 ) Not Specials
X-| X    | X    | X    |    X |   | X |  --  28  --  15 ( $ 304 ) Six's
   |    X |    X | X    | X    |   |   |  --  29  --  14 ( $ 204 ) Six's
X | X    | X    |    X | X    |   | X |  --  30  --  35 ( $ 294 ) Zeros
  -|    X |    X | X    |    X |   |   |  --  31  --  16 ( $ 294 ) Zeros
X | X    | X    | X    |    X | X |   |  --  32  --  17 ( $ 374 ) Six's
X | X    |    X | X    |    X |   |   |  --  33  --  08 ( $ 454 ) Six's
X | X    | X    |    X | X    |   |   |  --  34  --  29 ( $ 534 ) Not Specials
X | X    | X    |    X |    X | X | X |  --  35  --  31 ( $ 624 ) Black
   |    X | X    | X    | X    | X |   |  --  36  --  01 ( $ 534 ) Black
  -| X    |    X |    X | X    | X |   |  --  37  --  28 ( $ 534 ) Red
X-| X    |    X | X    | X    |   | X |  --  38  --  10 ( $ 534 ) Black
   |    X | X    |    X | X    |   | X |  --  39  --  25 ( $ 444 ) Black
X-| X    |    X | X    | X    |   | X |  --  40  --  10 ( $ 444 ) Zeros
X |    X |    X | X    | X    |   |   |  --  41  --  14 ( $ 534 ) Zeros
   | X    | X    |    X |    X |   | X |  --  42  --  33 ( $ 444 ) Zeros
   |    X |    X |    X |    X | X | X |  --  43  --  32 ( $ 354 ) Zeros
  -| X    | X    | X    |    X |   | X |  --  44  --  15 ( $ 354 ) Zeros
  -|    X | X    |    X |    X |   |   |  --  45  --  19 ( $ 354 ) Zeros
X |    X |    X |    X |    X | X | X |  --  46  --  32 ( $ 434 ) Six's
X |    X |    X |    X |    X |   |   |  --  47  --  34 ( $ 514 ) Six's
   | X    |    X | X    | X    |   | X |  --  48  --  10 ( $ 414 ) Six's
X |    X |    X |    X | X    |   |   |  --  49  --  36 ( $ 494 ) Not Primes
   |    X | X    | X    |    X | X |   |  --  50  --  03 ( $ 454 ) Not Primes
X |    X | X    |    X | X    |   | X |  --  51  --  23 ( $ 486 ) Not Primes
X |    X |    X |    X |    X |   |   |  --  52  --  34 ( $ 518 ) Not Primes
X | X    | X    | X    |    X | X |   |  --  53  --  17 ( $ 598 ) Not Specials
X |    X | X    | X    |    X |   |   |  --  54  --  07 ( $ 688 ) Red
   | X    |    X |    X | X    |   |   |  --  55  --  24 ( $ 598 ) Red
X-|    X |    X | X    | X    |   |   |  --  56  --  14 ( $ 598 ) Red
X | X    |    X | X    |    X | X |   |  --  57  --  06 ( $ 688 ) Black
X |    X | X    | X    | X    | X |   |  --  58  --  01 ( $ 768 ) Not Specials
X | X    |    X | X    |    X | X |   |  --  59  --  06 ( $ 848 ) Not Specials
X |    X | X    |    X | X    | X |   |  --  60  --  27 ( $ 928 ) Not Specials