Recent posts

#1
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - Today at 02:25:19 AM
Casinos' advantage

First, forget the idea that casinos earn a lot of money by taking advantage of their math edge.
No one casino will accumulate huge profits at bac tables by getting a fkng 1.25% average edge, they profit a lot more than that.
Stup.id side bets? Maybe.
Improper players' money wagering? Sure as hell.

Consider that a fair coin flip succession isn't beatable by definition, we shouldn't give a flying fk if eventually we are supposed to break even.

In any fair proposition the wealthiest side will get the underdog side sooner or later.
Are we richer than casinos? No way. And even if we do are, maximum betting limits pose a real threat on such proposition. For us not for them.
Let's figure out if our bets are taxed somewhat.

Casinos perspective

Without no exception (besides when bac personnel are keen bac players too) anytime you join a table you are considered as a mere perfect stu.pi.d id.i.ot person willing to lose money. A lot of money indeed.
Most of the times they are right and whenever you are not they start to grumble.

They wish you 'good luck' when they intend to say "dude, you have no chance to win".

They are right. The most you play the more you'll lose as math edge is constantly working for them.
But there's a stronger accelerating process working for them either: raising our bets for whatever reason.
This is not about a linear relationship of the money percentage they'll entitled to win mathematically, they know we can't sustain the variance being asymmetrically placed along the way.

Heaven happens: we'll win less than the expected fair return;

Hell happens: we'll go broke.

So this fact should lure us to think what the fk we're doing when joining a bac table:

-are we really exploiting a kind of edge or we are there to just gamble?

Baccarat expectations

Mathematically speaking (so without any shadow of doubt) any possible advantage is best exploited by a strict fkng flat betting strategy and I do not stall the post to prove this by math formulas.

Remember that the best friend of gamblers is variance and the worst enemy of pros is variance.

Same issue to look for but for very different reasons.

Actually this is a strong asymmetrical proposition to look for as gamblers look for just one side of things going their way whereas pros look for two different way of things developing.
Up to a point.

Again, wisest way to ascertain that we're taking the best of things is by adopting a same betting amount, best if we're betting the maximum limit that gives us no room to be outrageously wrong or
outrageously right.

I mean that there's no way to quit a bac table as winners if we didn't catch more W spots than L spots.
People trying to convince you that a lower amount of W hands than L hands will get 'em a profit anyway are fooling you by a 1 billion accuracy.
This thing could really happen just at very short term successions, that is when the natural variance hadn't the room to show up.

Any session MUST be a winning session

This is the most important point to look for, imo.

Whereas at bj we could easily lose several sessions in a row despite a possible carefully assessed math advantage, at baccarat this thing doesn't exist at all.

Actually and providing a fair amount of shoes dealt, an acute player won't lose a dime for each session played. I mean by flat betting, of course.
If he/she is behind, it's because he/she played very bad. Cards are not the culprit of such 'misfortune'.

Profitable opportunities do not come around the corner but they'll come.
We'll see this topic in a couple of days.

as.
#2
General Discussion / BetSelection.cc Partners With ...
Last post by alrelax - Today at 01:00:35 AM
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Whether you play dice games, cards or any one of a multitude range of slots, you can be sure that you are getting a fair shot at winning some of their huge jackpots that are available. The casinos are fully licensed and regularly monitor the outcomes to ensure that the high standards of compliance, that their players expect are always upheld.

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#3
Alrelax's Blog / Re: A Thought RE Math/Stats Vs...
Last post by alrelax - Yesterday at 05:49:59 PM
Seems to me, most of us ponder divination too much. At the tables, in addition before as well as after gaming. We also tend to look for a protocol to follow or avoid through divination  magic.

Problem is, we do highlight events that win and we earmark those to wager on. And then we find out the reality of what we misunderstood and what we wagered on that produced a greater amount of losses than wins. Usually a woulda, shoulda, coulda but did not do, sets in upon us.  Which puts yourself totally at a disadvantage to the casino. 

On the other hand, success pushes us to increase our time playing as well as the wagered amounts we risk. Failure to do the same series or sets of events that could lead us to repetitive success, because of our personality, ego and misunderstanding of the game, the casino and most of all money management methods and its benefits.

Nothing more applies than, it's easy to win and it's easy to lose. Unlike most other areas, finding the causes and the events that lead to the correct way or how results were/are reached.  KEY POINT>>>the last sentence.  And how those events that led us to correct ways and results may never actually be known or crystal clear, it is exactly what we might be looking for and never realize it.

And that is exactly what pushes us to chasing the larger wagers as well as the increased play time which is totally in the casino's favor the highest majority of the times we play.
#4
KungFuBac / Re: WELCOME
Last post by AsymBacGuy - Yesterday at 12:34:36 AM
Hi KFB!
Very interesting points as always from your part!

About MM.

People thinking that baccarat is a sole MM game is completely wrong, imo.
If we have found an advantage, best way we'll exploit it is by flat betting as we significantly reduce the variance.

The 'limiting losing variance' cannot be profitably accomplished other than by flat betting as we can't precisely know how things will develop on this shoe or on next shoes.

A kind of MM approach is by not betting at all at some (many) situations, unless strong 'comp' related situations must be applied.

as.

 


   
 
#5
General Discussion / Re: Holidays 2022
Last post by VLS - November 24, 2022, 09:35:10 PM
Happy Thanksgiving 2022 @ everyone! :nod: :applause:

happy-thanksgiving-s-1.jpg

:rose:
Vic
#6
General Discussion / Re: Holidays 2022
Last post by AsymBacGuy - November 23, 2022, 11:22:50 PM
Happy Thanksgiving!!!

as.
#7
General Discussion / Holidays 2022
Last post by alrelax - November 23, 2022, 05:05:21 PM
Well guys, tomorrow is Thanksgiving and the start of the holiday season.

Wishing everyone a great Thanksgiving and a holiday season!

Pausing gratefully to express thanks to all for your contributions.  Efforts help make us a 'real' forum without all the infighting and similar.

Have a wonderful day and everyday thereafter!

Alrelax
Board Owner and Administrator

#8
Baccarat Forum / Re: Re: Evolution of Big Table...
Last post by alrelax - November 22, 2022, 03:29:09 PM
Found this clear picture of the original 'big bac' table.  This is the table where there was two banker dealers seated, one for each side of the table.  There was also the one that was standing that would receive the cards from the players as they dealt them from the shoe.  That person stood up directly in the middle, opposite the seated banker dealers. 

#9
KungFuBac / Re: WELCOME
Last post by ADulay - November 22, 2022, 02:51:42 PM
Welcome aboard.

I've read many of your previous postings and am looking forward to more in the future.

AD
#10
KungFuBac / Re: WELCOME
Last post by AsymBacGuy - November 22, 2022, 01:08:18 AM
A very welcome, KFB!!!

The contribute of yours is much appreciated. ;)

as.