Why bac could be beatable itlr

Started by AsymBacGuy, June 28, 2019, 09:10:24 PM

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Hi AsymBacGuy

"A large percentage of casinos' profits come from bad players attitude loving to bet huge as losers and being more prudent when winning."

I agree 100%. This is a phenomenon that I perceive is just  a part of the human psyche.  IMO it has much to do with how we are bombarded with "fear" from an early age and throughout life.
Plus, coupled with our emotions tied to money, and this can allow fear to really affect our decisions.

I see fear being utilized everyday in our lives.

e.g., Roadside assistance insurance for your roadside assistance plan,..etc.

e.g., Insurance for the possibility that our new electronic device may not last x # of years.
IMO that's what the manufacturers 2-year warranty is for. Unless its an expensive item we shouldnt have much fear about all the whatifs.

     I recently bought an extension for a lightbulb socket(basically an extension that screws into the light bulb recepticle and drops down 3"). The cost was $6.95. I immediately started receiving offers that for just $2.95 (43% of the actual cost of the gadget), I could insure that extension for two years (of course this 2.95 policy would only start after the manufacturers 2-year warranty had ended).  FEAR.
I declined.lol. I have NO FEAR, just like at the Bac table,lol..
If my $7 gadget malfunctions in 23mo Ill just toss it and go spend another $7.

Our whole society tries to "FEAR" us into a life of fear.

Same as at the Bac table. Its my opinion we fear losing too much in comparison with our emotions for accepting a big Win.

Cheers, kfb
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."


I clearly see larger losses than win amounts, both in the per hand and per session.  It is physically evident.

When the highest majority of players do win, the problem is, they are on an all out mission with visions of redeeming themselves and regaining any lost funds, current and/or past.

As well, most players do not, or they simply get too wound up to implement proper MMM with adherence  to their levels and plateaus which would govern their wagers and time played, etc.  The smart way allowing yourself an advantage to hold and govern win money the proper way.

My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/index.php?board=250.0

Played well over 35, 224 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that & more.
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com


New important concepts are coming soon, imo of course.

Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

(Friday Night Lights TV series)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)


Casinos' advantage

First, forget the idea that casinos earn a lot of money by taking advantage of their math edge.
No one casino will accumulate huge profits at bac tables by getting a fkng 1.25% average edge, they profit a lot more than that.
Stup.id side bets? Maybe.
Improper players' money wagering? Sure as hell.

Consider that a fair coin flip succession isn't beatable by definition, we shouldn't give a flying fk if eventually we are supposed to break even.

In any fair proposition the wealthiest side will get the underdog side sooner or later.
Are we richer than casinos? No way. And even if we do are, maximum betting limits pose a real threat on such proposition. For us not for them.
Let's figure out if our bets are taxed somewhat.

Casinos perspective

Without no exception (besides when bac personnel are keen bac players too) anytime you join a table you are considered as a mere perfect stu.pi.d id.i.ot person willing to lose money. A lot of money indeed.
Most of the times they are right and whenever you are not they start to grumble.

They wish you 'good luck' when they intend to say "dude, you have no chance to win".

They are right. The most you play the more you'll lose as math edge is constantly working for them.
But there's a stronger accelerating process working for them either: raising our bets for whatever reason.
This is not about a linear relationship of the money percentage they'll entitled to win mathematically, they know we can't sustain the variance being asymmetrically placed along the way.

Heaven happens: we'll win less than the expected fair return;

Hell happens: we'll go broke.

So this fact should lure us to think what the fk we're doing when joining a bac table:

-are we really exploiting a kind of edge or we are there to just gamble?

Baccarat expectations

Mathematically speaking (so without any shadow of doubt) any possible advantage is best exploited by a strict fkng flat betting strategy and I do not stall the post to prove this by math formulas.

Remember that the best friend of gamblers is variance and the worst enemy of pros is variance.

Same issue to look for but for very different reasons.

Actually this is a strong asymmetrical proposition to look for as gamblers look for just one side of things going their way whereas pros look for two different way of things developing.
Up to a point.

Again, wisest way to ascertain that we're taking the best of things is by adopting a same betting amount, best if we're betting the maximum limit that gives us no room to be outrageously wrong or
outrageously right.

I mean that there's no way to quit a bac table as winners if we didn't catch more W spots than L spots.
People trying to convince you that a lower amount of W hands than L hands will get 'em a profit anyway are fooling you by a 1 billion accuracy.
This thing could really happen just at very short term successions, that is when the natural variance hadn't the room to show up.

Any session MUST be a winning session

This is the most important point to look for, imo.

Whereas at bj we could easily lose several sessions in a row despite a possible carefully assessed math advantage, at baccarat this thing doesn't exist at all.

Actually and providing a fair amount of shoes dealt, an acute player won't lose a dime for each session played. I mean by flat betting, of course.
If he/she is behind, it's because he/she played very bad. Cards are not the culprit of such 'misfortune'.

Profitable opportunities do not come around the corner but they'll come.
We'll see this topic in a couple of days.

Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

(Friday Night Lights TV series)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)