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[alrelax]

Good Morning!  The following is a detailed event that came to light at the baccarat room the other night.

GETTING REAL

It stood out, basic skills, a bit of reserved advanced skills, math trying to be applied skills and a huge dose of viewing random presentments thinking and believing that they were all structured hands that could be entered and exited at certain times with nice profitable wagering.  Shake it all up with individual life skills, egos, bankrolls and most of all, that desperation to walk away a winner, is exactly the way I viewed the table of players. 

WHAT REAL ACTUALLY IS

Real-Life events that will overtake any structured thought of presentments that are 'due' to come out or appear at anytime whatsoever.  And the highest majority of all players, like in the 99% range plus, will swear up and down that they will adhere to before getting to the casino.  However, at the table it is almost always the total opposite.

WHY SO MANY?

I really do want to understand why so many of the people I witness, being ripped-from their buy ins, repeatedly return and return and return.  I do talk to most of them as I have played a long time with the highest majority of them.  Answers range from, I never win, to I win some times but I almost always give it back, to I always try for larger wins after winning something and my greed makes me think disastrous. 

Very seldom do I ever hear about their Money Management Methods and how they hold a percentage of what they win or how they only lose a buy in as risk capital from a previous portion of a win, that allows them to strictly play on the casino's money as their working capital.  But all I ever hear is what they have available to them through their set aside money taking from their jobs or other money sources. 

You know what I realized after serious thoughts about most everyone there playing?  Here is what I came up with.  They heighten their moments, putting aside the bad and surrounding themselves with the good, speculate into the desires of erasing all of their mistakes and losses, leaving them with an unattainable amount of money to come their way in the shoes they sit down to play. 

But I still wondered, why do they continue to play after so many many attempts and the massive destruction to their financial situation they caused themselves?  And the answer I came up with was,  because the highest majority of people, despite what seems realistic, prefer their results to be along the lines of what they actually know and are accustomed to, not necessarily what the reality is or will be. 

WHAT AND WHY IN THE FUTURE

It is not going to change for the 99% plus players because they will never realize what reality actually is.  All they will ever admit to or confess is, I can't believe that happened or I should have done such and such. 

The absolute fear of surprise is what gets most.  Surprise?  Yes, surprise.  IMO and experience, despite what people may say or agree to, really do prefer events that they know.  Why?  Because they really don't know it, haven't thought of it, are not accustomed to it and fear most of all*, the loss of their money in anyway they have not experienced-which is their own little grove that the highest percentage of the times, leads to their losses with their justification of those through the placement of blame*. 

(Blame.  Place blame on it they continually remember; With following anything such as chop-2s-3s-repeating and so on, listening to others, being told what to wager on, and the listening to others or reading about structured wagering on certain presentments, etc. etc.).

That is what came to me the other night in the baccarat room. 

[alrelax]

Realization.  An Extremely Hard Concept To Grasp.

People do see things differently. Especially at the Bac table.  However, I also know they do agree on many things. Influence, balance of predictability, desires and many other factors are of course, different and individualistic to each of us.

When each of us sit down at a Baccarat table, we will each get a fair and impartial chance to make a profit. Of course that drastically changes with our wagering. The outcome of our wagers will be reflected in our views. Because we seldom admit and/or recognize the actual reasons we lose and as well, win. You need to start to understand exactly why you lost and why you won, and it has much more to do with then; you placed your wager on something that was supposed to happen or the odds were in favor of it happening, etc., etc.

Be super careful and extremely conscious of overgeneralization, which I do believe is one of the most contributing factors to bringing about losses and/or wins. Overgeneralization will grab you and you will not even know it, you better figure it out and avoid falling into the trap a good nine out of 10 baccarat players do.

Successful Baccarat wagering has nothing to do with systematic, scheduled or statistical wagering. Nothing at all. If you believe it does, do it or keep doing it and come back and produce some win/loss statements, write a book and sell the holy grail, because you and no one else will ever be able to consistently win on systematic, scheduled and statistical  wagering. And if you did it, you can certainly make multi millions selling your fool-proof holy-grail system, that you can produce certified win/loss statements proving you have done just that. But you cannot and you never will.

Successful Bac wagering is recognizing and capitalizing on what the shoe is presenting PERIOD.  Nothing more, Nothing less.

If you are looking at wagering for a certain event, you then are entering prediction, fallacy and hope. You will completely fall prey to the casino. No two ways about it. You cannot +50% — 100% of the times follow prediction and hope. Because all you will do is enter into fallacy and lose your bankrolls.  And that is the main reason those electronic score boards exists at all bac tables.

You have to realize you can only capitalize on certain Sections of a shoe, which will be defined by certain Turning Points. You cannot and will not change what is waiting to be presented by applying experiences, vision, statistics or any other results from testing. The shoe you were sitting in front of, is and will be oblivious to everything just mentioned.

You cannot predict what is going to happen or not happen, you can only assume. However, you can wager on the winning side with force and capitalize extremely quickly and being correct. But you can only do this for a short period of time and within a limit amount of certain Sections as I said.  And that is exactly what you have to realize. 

[KungFuBac]

Hi all,

Alrelax: "... People do see things differently. Especially at the Bac table.  However, I also know they do agree on many things. Influence, balance of predictability, desires and many other factors are of course, different and individualistic to each of us. ..."

I have often wondered what it would be like if after every decision at the Bac table we could see each other's thoughts or thought bubbles (You know the little bubbles above a person's head depicting their thoughts as in cartoons or movies, etc.).

For example, if six players let's assume three guessed correct/ three incorrect. It is my opinion the three players guessing correct (and incorrect) would never be thinking with the same logic as to why they were right or wrong,...etc, though they agreed on what the result would be (P or B), their logic and the cognitive processes utilized in making the selection would seldom if ever be the same.
Regardless of one's modus operandi, one will still appear accurate (or inaccurate)  approx 50% of the time.
Just my opinion.


Continued Success,

[alrelax]

I have literally discovered why some of the other players wager on what I am wagering on or vise versa, etc., interesting to say the least.  We got to the same destination with the same result (win or lose) with quite different reasoning. 

[KungFuBac]

Good Day Mates.

An addendum thought to the above posts.

Be Cautious About Following Another Players' Bet:
One must be cautious about following another players' bet as we may be following a follower.
So what we could perceive as going with the consensus at the table is actually just the opinion of one single player. That one single player may or may not have any more insight than flipping a coin.

Often I can see other players watching a certain player and as soon as they place their wager they will do the same wager (i.e., follow). Often the player being watched (followed) is due to several factors: Appears to be winning, has won his last couple bets, maybe has largest stack, looks smart, well dressed,,...etc.

So lets say there six of us at the table in spots 1-6. If Im in #6 and notice #5 player places a huge wager that's significantly larger than their typical size/ I decide to consider following and think #5 sees something.  Then I also glance at players #1-4 and see all of them are wagering (P), and think it's a 100% consensus. So I too shall wager (P). "How could I logically go against a consensus and all these experts and their independent selection"??
However, what I couldn't recognize is that in actualality:  (player 5 was following 4 was following 3 was following 2 was following the inebriated and smart-looking guy in spot #1).

Im not suggesting never ever follow another player. Im just suggesting we should be cautious.


Continued Success,

[alrelax]

And as we talked the other day about this in particular, a player that does just the opposite of following, plays the exact opposite as to what the largest people betting are doing, especially when everyone is wagering one side.  And he does exactly that at his own admission, because the casino will not consistently pay-out the largest bettors hand after hand.  As well, those losing will lose more hands than they win.  And he does fairly well (all in proportion of course) wagering small money against everyone and playing for short periods.