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2 sides to craps

Started by Turner, May 11, 2013, 09:30:22 PM

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Turner

Craps has the lowest house edge in the casino available. it also has the worse (as high as 17%)


See attached where it's a fair game and a total rip off (in red)


The 2 sides to craps
Firstly, There are 36 combos of the 2 dice. This gives these chances for the dice to roll. Most probable first.
7, 6 or 8, 5 or 9, 4 or 10, 3 or 11, 2 or 12 = 6:1, 7.2:1, 9:1, 12:1, 18:1, 36:1
Ex. There are 6 ways to roll a 7, hence 6:1 = 6&1, 1&6, 5&2, 2&5, 4&3, 3&4
Ex. There are 2 ways to roll an 11 hence 18:1 = 6&5, 5&6

The table, firstly is split into two. There is the game of craps and the game of id.iots.
See red areas on attachment for idio.ts who want to give the casino a ridiculous house edge
The game of craps: Pass/don't pass, Come, don't come, 4,5,6,8,9,10

The game of idiots: anything in the red area
we know 12 is 36:1. The proposition bet for double six is  31 for 1. Notice the word "for". there's another con to make the odds look higher. 31 for 1 is with your bet back. its 30:1. that's 14% house edge !!!!!. Jesus!

They all range from 9% to 17%. Any 7 is 17%? that's the most to hit number at 6:1 and they pay 4:1, although it looks far more attractive written as 5 for 1

BIG 6 and BIG 8. pays evens. Just flex your arm 12 inches and get 6/5 straight on the number. You get better odds and a bit of exercise


The game
The Game is defiantly dual.  In a way, there are 2 games. The come out game and the Point game.
  When a shooter rolls his first roll it is the Come out roll. We can bet on this. On the Pass line or the don't pass.

Pass line.

7, 11 will win and 2,3,12 will lose. Maths is favourable to win an evens bet due to 7 comes out most mathematically in the come out game.  But the maths are against you in the Point game because you will be wanting less higher odds numbers like 4,5,6,8,9,10 to roll before a 7. So 7 or 11 wins on the come out

don't pass line.
2,3 or 12 will win on the come out roll.  A 7 will lose. Maths is favourable to lose due to 7 comes out most mathematically in the come out game.  But the maths are with you in the Point game because you will be wanting 7 against ANY other numbers apart from the point.
To make sure the house edge is tweaked, 12 is a push.....not a win. In some casinos, 2 is a push and 12 wins.
As for real estate, the biggest and most visible places to bet favour the house.


The pass line is bigger than the Don't Pass.


The COME is bigger than the Don't come. Even the font is capital for COME.

They want you to go into the Point game mathematically worse off. That's why you can't take a PASS bet down. The small DON'T PASS area is small because once you get to the POINT game you are mathematically better off. That's why they let you take your bet down ......They want you to!


It works too....I have no stats, but I bet 90% play PASS/COME (right betting) against 10% DON'T PASS/DON'T COME (wrong betting or charmingly known as "The dark side")


Actually, the don't pass has a tiny bit less house edge than the pass bet. It 0.1% perhaps,  1.36% for don't pass, 1.42% for PASS


See it cynically, it helps you make the right decisions.

COME OUT dice
2 = Pass lose,  Don't pass win
3 = Pass lose,  Don't pass win
4 = point, Pass and Don't Pass stay on the table
5 = point, Pass and Don't Pass stay on the table
6 = point, Pass and Don't Pass stay on the table
7 = Pass win,  Don't pass lose
8 = point, Pass and Don't Pass stay on the table
9 = point, Pass and Don't Pass stay on the table
10 = point, Pass and Don't Pass stay on the table
11 = Pass win,  Don't pass lose
12 = Pass lose,  Don't pass win

POINT game.
Once the come out roll is over, the come out game is done. The come out roll will continue as long as 2,3,7,11,12 is rolled. By the way, 2,3,12 are craps. Once a 4,5,6,8,9,10 is rolled, the POINT game is working.

Come out roll, PASS line bet 1U...rolls 4. This is the end of the come out game. We are in the point game and 4 is the point.


A big white puck is placed above the 4.


Now, you don't want a 7, but you do want a 4 because the point has been hit and a new come out roll will be thrown. If a 4 is rolled, you win your PASS bet, evens. You can see the odds are against you

Come out roll, don't PASS line bet 1U...rolls 4. This is the end of the come out game. We are in the point game and 4 is the point. A big white puck is placed above the 4. Now, you don't want a 4, but you do want a 7.


If a 4 is rolled, you lose your don't PASS bet, if a 7 is rolled, you win, evens. You can see how the odds are with you.

isn't this easy?.....NO

Variance

The casino know the dice don't go 7,6,8,7,7,6,8,5,4,9,8,7,6,4,9,8,8,7,8,6,7,10,2,7,8,6,6,12
that's mathematically very nice

Its going to be more like 10,8,4,12,2,3,7,6,10,4,4,9,10,12,2 on occasions

So you could say "playwrongto catch the maths in the Point game", or you could say "playrightto catch the variance in the Point game"


Like roulette, 7 will be dominant followed by 6,8,5,9,4,10,11,3,2,12 over 10000 rolls, even then 6 may hit more than 7, 9 wouldn't thought. I've tested this many times. Over 10K 6 can dominate. Over 1million rolls, its in line.

When i say rolls, i mean random.org dice rolls.

EXAMPLES of play
New shooter, "they're coming out!"
Pass line bet $5.
11 win, Pass line bet $5.
5....the point is established at 5
6,6,8,10,7 LOSE
New shooter, "they're coming out!"
Pass line bet $5.
8, the point is 8. 11,12,6,8 WIN

New shooter, "they're coming out!"
Don't Pass line bet $5.
3 win, Don't Pass line bet $5, 10 the point is 10
4,6,6,10 lose
Don't Pass line bet $5. 5, the point is 5, 7 WIN

New shooter, "they're coming out!"
Don't Pass line bet $5. 7, lose


Free odds.


When the point is make you can take the odds on your PASS bet and lay the odds on your don't PASS bet.


These are 1 x your bet, or can be  2 or 3x your bet depending on the casino.


These are house edge free. 0% house edge.


Playing the PASS line and take the odds, and you win because the point hits, you will be paid evens on your PASS bet and what ever the true odds are for the POINT

Point hits
6 & 8 pays 6/5
5 & 9 pays 3/2
4 & 10 pays 2/1


Playing the don't PASS line and lay the odds, and you win because 7 hits, You will be paid evens on your don't PASS bet and what ever the true odds are for the POINT


7 hits
6 & 8 pays 5/6
5 & 9 pays 2/3
4 & 10 pays 1/2



BacDealer

Quote from: Turner on May 11, 2013, 09:30:22 PM
Craps has the lowest house edge in the casino available. it also has the worse (as high as 17%)


See attached where it's a fair game and a total rip off (in red)


The 2 sides to craps
Firstly, There are 36 combos of the 2 dice. This gives these chances for the dice to roll. Most probable first.
7, 6 or 8, 5 or 9, 4 or 10, 3 or 11, 2 or 12 = 6:1, 7.2:1, 9:1, 12:1, 18:1, 36:1
Ex. There are 6 ways to roll a 7, hence 6:1 = 6&1, 1&6, 5&2, 2&5, 4&3, 3&4
Ex. There are 2 ways to roll an 11 hence 18:1 = 6&5, 5&6

The table, firstly is split into two. There is the game of craps and the game of id.iots.
See red areas on attachment for idio.ts who want to give the casino a ridiculous house edge
The game of craps: Pass/don't pass, Come, don't come, 4,5,6,8,9,10

The game of idiots: anything in the red area
we know 12 is 36:1. The proposition bet for double six is  31 for 1. Notice the word "for". there's another con to make the odds look higher. 31 for 1 is with your bet back. its 30:1. that's 14% house edge !!!!!. Jesus!

They all range from 9% to 17%. Any 7 is 17%? that's the most to hit number at 6:1 and they pay 4:1, although it looks far more attractive written as 5 for 1

BIG 6 and BIG 8. pays evens. Just flex your arm 12 inches and get 6/5 straight on the number. You get better odds and a bit of exercise


The game
The Game is defiantly dual.  In a way, there are 2 games. The come out game and the Point game.
  When a shooter rolls his first roll it is the Come out roll. We can bet on this. On the Pass line or the don't pass.

Pass line.

7, 11 will win and 2,3,12 will lose. Maths is favourable to win an evens bet due to 7 comes out most mathematically in the come out game.  But the maths are against you in the Point game because you will be wanting less higher odds numbers like 4,5,6,8,9,10 to roll before a 7. So 7 or 11 wins on the come out

don't pass line.
2,3 or 12 will win on the come out roll.  A 7 will lose. Maths is favourable to lose due to 7 comes out most mathematically in the come out game.  But the maths are with you in the Point game because you will be wanting 7 against ANY other numbers apart from the point.
To make sure the house edge is tweaked, 12 is a push.....not a win. In some casinos, 2 is a push and 12 wins.
As for real estate, the biggest and most visible places to bet favour the house.


The pass line is bigger than the Don't Pass.


The COME is bigger than the Don't come. Even the font is capital for COME.

They want you to go into the Point game mathematically worse off. That's why you can't take a PASS bet down. The small DON'T PASS area is small because once you get to the POINT game you are mathematically better off. That's why they let you take your bet down ......They want you to!


It works too....I have no stats, but I bet 90% play PASS/COME (right betting) against 10% DON'T PASS/DON'T COME (wrong betting or charmingly known as "The dark side")


Actually, the don't pass has a tiny bit less house edge than the pass bet. It 0.1% perhaps,  1.36% for don't pass, 1.42% for PASS


See it cynically, it helps you make the right decisions.

COME OUT dice
2 = Pass lose,  Don't pass win
3 = Pass lose,  Don't pass win
4 = point, Pass and Don't Pass stay on the table
5 = point, Pass and Don't Pass stay on the table
6 = point, Pass and Don't Pass stay on the table
7 = Pass win,  Don't pass lose
8 = point, Pass and Don't Pass stay on the table
9 = point, Pass and Don't Pass stay on the table
10 = point, Pass and Don't Pass stay on the table
11 = Pass win,  Don't pass lose
12 = Pass lose,  Don't pass win

POINT game.
Once the come out roll is over, the come out game is done. The come out roll will continue as long as 2,3,7,11,12 is rolled. By the way, 2,3,12 are craps. Once a 4,5,6,8,9,10 is rolled, the POINT game is working.

Come out roll, PASS line bet 1U...rolls 4. This is the end of the come out game. We are in the point game and 4 is the point.


A big white puck is placed above the 4.


Now, you don't want a 7, but you do want a 4 because the point has been hit and a new come out roll will be thrown. If a 4 is rolled, you win your PASS bet, evens. You can see the odds are against you

Come out roll, don't PASS line bet 1U...rolls 4. This is the end of the come out game. We are in the point game and 4 is the point. A big white puck is placed above the 4. Now, you don't want a 4, but you do want a 7.


If a 4 is rolled, you lose your don't PASS bet, if a 7 is rolled, you win, evens. You can see how the odds are with you.

isn't this easy?.....NO

Variance

The casino know the dice don't go 7,6,8,7,7,6,8,5,4,9,8,7,6,4,9,8,8,7,8,6,7,10,2,7,8,6,6,12
that's mathematically very nice

Its going to be more like 10,8,4,12,2,3,7,6,10,4,4,9,10,12,2 on occasions

So you could say "playwrongto catch the maths in the Point game", or you could say "playrightto catch the variance in the Point game"


Like roulette, 7 will be dominant followed by 6,8,5,9,4,10,11,3,2,12 over 10000 rolls, even then 6 may hit more than 7, 9 wouldn't thought. I've tested this many times. Over 10K 6 can dominate. Over 1million rolls, its in line.

When i say rolls, i mean random.org dice rolls.

EXAMPLES of play
New shooter, "they're coming out!"
Pass line bet $5.
11 win, Pass line bet $5.
5....the point is established at 5
6,6,8,10,7 LOSE
New shooter, "they're coming out!"
Pass line bet $5.
8, the point is 8. 11,12,6,8 WIN

New shooter, "they're coming out!"
Don't Pass line bet $5.
3 win, Don't Pass line bet $5, 10 the point is 10
4,6,6,10 lose
Don't Pass line bet $5. 5, the point is 5, 7 WIN

New shooter, "they're coming out!"
Don't Pass line bet $5. 7, lose


Free odds.


When the point is make you can take the odds on your PASS bet and lay the odds on your don't PASS bet.


These are 1 x your bet, or can be  2 or 3x your bet depending on the casino.


These are house edge free. 0% house edge.


Playing the PASS line and take the odds, and you win because the point hits, you will be paid evens on your PASS bet and what ever the true odds are for the POINT

Point hits
6 & 8 pays 6/5
5 & 9 pays 3/2
4 & 10 pays 2/1


Playing the don't PASS line and lay the odds, and you win because 7 hits, You will be paid evens on your don't PASS bet and what ever the true odds are for the POINT


7 hits
6 & 8 pays 5/6
5 & 9 pays 2/3
4 & 10 pays 1/2

All Odds aside, I see on occasion when I visit the Craps table at the Casino. I see 4 come out 4 times in a row, I see 12 more times than I see any kind of run of 6 or 8. I also see seven out far to many times than I can imagine vs a shooter having a run of 8 numbers in a row.

Dice games are just so Random, its hard to just bet the best Odds.
"Sometimes, Its not about the money, Its about being able to say yea, It can be done, and claim victory. That's Genius!!!"