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[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Gentlemen,
I had emphasis about the need,
for a STABLE bet selection,
for so many time,
that you must already fed-up,
when I bring up this subject again.

A stable selection,
simply mean,
a strategy, to bet,
if you FLAT-bet it,
it will produce a result,
say after 100, 200, 300 attempt,

it will LOSE, at math expectation.
again,
LOSE, at math expectation
again,
LOSE, at math expectation
and again,
LOSE, at math expectation
[and again, and again, just,
to drum them into your sub-concious mind.]


If you still can't understand,
then,
say,
ie.

A Double dozens bet,
according to MATH expectation,
will hit 66times, albeit ZERO,
out of 100attempts,

and with the ZERO thrown in,
wil hit less than 66times,
Thus we expect the double dozen,
to hit AROUND 63times, more or less,
depending on how many ZERO hit.

If your double dozen,
strategy, of bet selection,
hit,

"WOW! 80times/100attempts",
and then at next season,
"DARN! hit only 40times/100",

then that selection, is suicidal!!!
It swinging wide and far!

Any PROGRESSION, even flat,
applied,
will win huge,
and then LOSE till your BR depleted.

Thus ,
my opinion,
STOP looking for bet selection,
that will hit positive,
instead look for BET selection,
that CONSTANTLY,
"KEEP-losing. at math expectation!".

This is a statement,
that no mathboys,
or math geeks,
or math professors,
can argue!

I can see they will all
NODDING in agreement.

Then when you have a selection,
that,
"constantly LOSING-close-to-math-expectation",
then it is very easy to win,
with whatever mild progression.
or with H&R!!!

WHY???
Because simply,
it will near BREAKEVEN!
Anything that has near BREAKEVEN,
will easily won,

That another fact that whatsoever mathboys,
geeks, or professor, MUST agreed.

Then ,
thrown in ,
[Thanks to Albalaha, and Kattila, for their ideas]
the VARIANCE management,
and LOSING-STREAK avoiding strategies,
and CUT LOSSES regimes...
and VIOLA!
A constant winning system!

What you think???
Can you deny this?

[Albalaha]

Wong,
         Every betselection(specially those covering 18 or more numbers) are very stable in long run but there will be harsh times in those too like 25/100 and you can not pre-guess that ever. Think of a strategy that can go across such cases without huge losses and you have a grail of your own.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Dear Albalaha,
With respect.

Thanks for your advice.

I think,
there a few bet-selection,
that MORE EQUAL, than others.
===========


Without PREJUDICE,
toward anyone, in particular,

[and since I can't do programming]
may you please, do a long spins,
preferably real casino,
10000spins or more,
of the double dozen PINWHEEL strategy,
of matrix3,
which I had described,
and then,
maybe we can see for ourselves,
that it really a very stable bet,
to the extend of harsh only 25pw111/100rows.

Few members, did 10000spins,
they are really stable.
but choose not to post here...
alas...
but they were RNG.



Thanks.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

ps..
by the way,
single dozen
CONSTANT
'only 25wins / 100attempts',

is GODSEND!

[Albalaha]

Wong,
Your or my strategy doesn't affect randomness and thereby no way to bet is better than others. Bets with larger coverage gets stable sooner but a dozen not hitting 30 spins is not better than a single number not hitting for 300 spins.

[wannawin]

Gentlemen,
I had emphasis about the need,
for a STABLE bet selection,
for so many time,
that you must already fed-up,
when I bring up this subject again.

Not at all, please talk about it extensively.

A stable selection,
simply mean,
a strategy, to bet,
if you FLAT-bet it,
it will produce a result,
say after 100, 200, 300 attempt,

it will LOSE, at math expectation.

Thank you very much for bringing the issue to the forefront of discussion.
My understanding: the mission as a player who does not have the mathematical advantage is  to find a stable selection to use with a MM that can withstand fluctuations. Between the two the selection would be more irrelevant: to find the MM to resist is what would be worth more. I would like to see more discussion on this topic.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Dear Albalaha and Wannawin,
Thanks for your replies.
Appreciate them.

Dear Albalaha,
With respect.

It is true we can't affect randomness,

And , true, there is no better selection,
but there is, STABLE selection,
where the extreme variance,
being filtered out

we could only choose,
not to bet,
when the clustering loser,
keep coming.

and a stable selection,
itself may produce SINGLE-DOZEN, 
that less than 30hit/100attempt,
it may also produce only 25/100...
and can't BREAKEVEN...mathwise...

If we have a bet selection,
that constantly ,
hit 25 to 33 single-dozen/100.

Then HOW,
we could bet them,
to win at least 1unit?

There a few simple strategy to bet them.

1] Since Single dozen,
very highly unlikely,
to behave like,

HLLHLLHLLHLLHLLHLLHLL...

then there always CLUSTERED.
Thus ,
if we very confident that our selection,
is very stable,
then your strategy of
'extreme-variance-management',
is the best to tackle this phenomenon.

How?
After a very long absent of singles,
we could deduced, that the remaining attempts,
will produce near rtm, or close to rtm,
or in simple words,
very close to breakeven...
say, if worst possible ,
[we assumed.....],
is 25single-dozen/100sttempts,
then, by applying your strategy,
say, after more than 10 losses,
[of not-taken bet,
or virtual-bet, that produced losses]

we could deduced that will,
at least 25single-dozen,
in next 90attempts.

and in simple words,
we already "saved",
10 losses...of chips...
and 25/90spins, will be a breeze for you...
==================================

2]Bet after a single have hit,
bet that double dozen bet...


since single-dozen,
may hit less than math expectation,
due to ZERO, then ,

H&R,
if we wait for a single to hit,
then bet doubles,
and since clustering effect,
and SERIES/SINGLE phenomenon,
we may get another,
near-breakeven hit...[flatbet]
=========================

3]Since only 25, to 33 singles,
hit/100attempts,
and may clustered,
Then, we may, devised a strategy, to see,

say, how,
by dividing seasons,

of
every 10spins, or 12spins,
15spins, or 20spins,

how they,
behaved,
with win/lose ratios.

by dividing the 100 into 10spins,
season bet,
we have 100attempts/10=10spins.



thus we may see..
single dozen,
[keep in mind,
we expect. 25, to 30 singles hit/100]

a 10spins season,...

a] all losses=possible.

b]all hit=highly unlikely...

c]little win= likely..

d]little losses=  likely...

thus we could devised,
a betting strategy, to win ,
and cut losses,
if the losses,
come in drove
in a single 10spins-season.

Thus we could see, how to win,
more than cut losses.

ie.
if we were to hit by,
ALL-LOSSES 10spins,
then after say x  spins,
we just cut loss,
simple because,
the next few win,
may not produce profit,
if we carry on...

and stop bet,
if we already hit TARGET profit.

and also if we see, there already 25 to 30hit,
in certain, seasons, we just know next season,
may, have more wins

==========================

4] if stable has, 25 to 33hits of singles,
then we may bet DOUBLE-DOZENS.

How?
Since only 25, to 33 singles,
and may clustered,
Then, we may, devised a strategy, to see,

say, how, by dividing seasons,of
every 10spins, or 12spins,
15spins, or 20spins,

behaved, with win/lose ratios.

in simple words,
if every 10spins,
that 10%, of 100attempts,
that will have TEN-seasons.

How many 10spins-...
have ...

a] ALL hits of double dozen,[possible]

b] have all lose"...[highly unlikely]

c]win little ..,[possible]

d]lose little...,[possible]


simple mean, we look for 10spins-grouping,
win/lose ratio.

If the ,
single dozen DISPERSED-evenly,

Then all seasons, will hit positive,
or near breakeven, or little losses,
"IF-WE-BET-FLAT"..

[gentlemen,
flat-bet, not a betting stake,
but to see how it behaved,
in a season's win/lose ratios...
hope you understand]

Since single dozen,
hit around 30%, math wise,
then ,
we could safely says, that ,
SEVEN seasons,
out of TEN,
will have positive outcome, [if flatbet]

and with this 7positive/3negative ratios,
how we gonna win huge, in 7seasons,
and cut losses,
for the loser 3-seasons???


5]Imbalance.

If 25 to 30hit/30 single dozen,
happen almost exclusively,
in your bet selection,
then ,
the IMBALANCE strategy,
could be used effectively,
even flatbet.

Any ideas???

Thanks.

[Albalaha]

You can chose to waste many hundred hours on searching for anything that is called stable always but there is none which is stable all the times. Wrong expectations will only worsen your way to play and research. Talk of a wise strategy to face the worst than trying to magically find a bet that doesn't harass ever.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Pinwheel,
is one of the known, stable selection.

I had posted the simple strategy.

If we take some time to test,
we could see it always revert back to expectation,
after the hundred bet.
with low dd.

Few members here,
had test them up to hundred thousands spin,
but choose to keep quiet...



Betting a fixed color, and dozen, are, deadly,
as extreme variance, definitely hit.

[AsymBacGuy]

Hi BtW!

Your first post is interesting and I agree with most of your ideas.
But I tend to disagree about the 5 strategy points you mentioned later.

Imo you are assigning too much subjectivity to the game.
"very long absence of singles"......"seasons of 10, 12 or 15 spins" and so on.

At gambling, besides the EV-, we cannot rely upon anything but the starting probability and the statistical laws related to it.

Where can I find the "pinwheel" you were talking about?

Thanks in advance and cheers

as.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Dear Asymbacguy,
Thanks for yor interest.

That pinwheel,
http://betselection.cc/general-discussion/pinwheel-test-sim-please/

not my idea, but Kimo Li's...


Thanks.