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Highlighted => Albalaha's Exclusive => Topic started by: Albalaha on February 23, 2021, 05:04:06 AM

Title: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: Albalaha on February 23, 2021, 05:04:06 AM
I thought of never writing back on any of the forums but finally decided to give my inputs on the most controversial topic on gambling. Can there be a way to beat the game? Answer is Yes but it is subject to certain issues:
1. House edge should not be excessive. Baccarat is the best bet, in my humble opinion. Even European roulette/French roulette doable.

2. Betselection doesn't matter, be it static or dynamic, all has the same yield and expectancy in the long run as provided by probabilities they carry and the house edge they bear.

3. Bet limit on EC bet should be atleast 1-100. Although one seldom need to bet over 10 units.

4. A net win could be achieved even in the very first bet but we should always expect to win in the long run and play accordingly. In an EC bet, as per my own estimates and researches, even the worst of the worst could be overcome and a net win could be achieved within 15,000 trials.

5. Stay away from all foolish money managements available for centuries. They are meant to handle only one type of variance. Remember, increasing or decreasing bet alone doesn't make you winner. There are more to it to become an HG.

6. Stop loss doesn't help. One should rather be able to totally forget abnormal losses and should understand that they are part and parcel of the game.

7. Increasing bet from 1 to 2 is 100% increase in the bet while 2 to 3 is only 50% and so on even after increasing bet we keep losing the efficacy needed. This should be kept in mind and answered correctly.

More later..............

Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: KungFuBac on February 24, 2021, 03:26:32 AM
Thx Albalaha

re: #6 : "Stop Loss doesn't Help..."

Do you suggest a Stop Win? (e.g., % of BI, % of bankroll, % of monies or #bets wagered that session...etc, none of the above?)


Looking forward to part 2
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: Albalaha on February 24, 2021, 03:50:41 AM
There is nothing like Stop loss or Stop win. You can call your day at any moment you feel like.
Actually, unless you have a set formula to play in the long run, you will always rely upon luck and will think of "hit and run" type failed ideas. All these failed concepts evolved due to the uncertainty and lack of a vision for the long run. Even heard of a money management approach for long run? No.
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: alrelax on February 24, 2021, 04:29:01 AM
Ref #6: 

You are exactly right and I said it many times, stop loss does not help at all and all it does is prematurely stop people from winning if they are going to win. You never know when the point is that you really encounter the best section of your session or not. But you're buyin has to be risk capital rather than closely watched and stressed upon. 
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: Albalaha on February 24, 2021, 04:49:26 AM
Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials, Part 2:

#8. Play in cycles. One cycle completes when you get a Win. Remember, it might not be a net win though. For example, LLLLLW, here a W after 5 successive losses ends the cycle.

#9. In any cycle, first three bets are the most crucial. You may either pause your bets for the cycle to end with a W or bet minimum possible there.

#10. Do not ever try to push your bets to recover losses due to one or more successive bad cycles like LLLLLLLLLLLW or LLLLWLLLLWLLLLLLW . Play ahead as if nothing of this sort happened to you.

# 11. Free up your self from all the fallacies like after a very bad run, you will get a compensatory set of wins.

#12. There is nothing like patterns that you can exploit. Gizmotron preached this fallacy for long. Every pattern that you see running so far, could reverse while you start to bet in favour of it or could carry further if you go against that. Both are randomly equally likely.

More later.....
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: KungFuBac on February 25, 2021, 06:37:44 PM
Thx Albalaha

3. Bet limit on EC bet should be atleast 1-100. Although one seldom need to bet over 10 units.

My perception is that you work diligently to slow the acceleration of wager size(not how to increase wager size as many approaches seem to pursue). I hope your fine thread continues to shed some light on this issue.

I've designed a few methods of what I call periodic or perpetual type wagering methodologies that may or may not be similar to your examples.
I found the most difficult problem was(is--as im still working on it) how to handle the ratio of wager size change to buyin change. Though one wouldn't think at first glance that a continuous micro increase to the wager could compound so rapidly--I found that keeping this ratio optimally sized was the key to buyin survival(Easier said then done).

In other words: If wager grows too fast then buyin can get wiped out within fewer decisions. If wager grows too slow then buyin doesn't grow at a sufficient rate to handle future volatility...etc.

I've attempted at bac though mostly at craps utilizing a keyhole approach as I wagered only one spot and one spot only(DC3 wager), so for example after a comeout(dp), it was sent out on the fourth(dc3) spot. My main reason for choosing craps was the option for a $1 increment change.  One approach that has endured /performed reasonably well was starting at $25 and increasing/decreasing $1 at certain stages, triggers,as a f(x) of SD, # of decisions,....etc. However, regardless of trigger(s) the main issue kept returning: wager sizing: how to slow down growth yet continue to grow, be at the highest level when a pos run presented,...etc.

I will elaborate  more later on as I don't want to sidetrack your thread/ Im sure I will have additional questions as we move further into your post.

All the best,
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: Albalaha on March 02, 2021, 05:47:08 AM
Kungfubac,
You might be new to forum world(or might be there with some other name) but are a sensible looking person. Increasing or decreasing bet alone is not a way to win. Increase and decrease should be logical and able to sustain variance till its virtual limits. Every known progression lacks in that side and becomes useless.
       To make a difference, we need to be innovative and keep all fallacies aside.
      You might approach me via email discussing the weaknesses and strengths of your strategy, only if you feel like. I might be of some help.
More later.
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: KungFuBac on March 05, 2021, 07:17:20 AM
Hi Albalaha

Thx for your time/reply to my inquiry. I will email u by the weekend as I play bac most days mon-fri. and don't return home til early a.m. ,....etc.

"...You might be new to forum world(or might be there with some other name).."

     This is only bac forum ever joined. I started reading this forum about 8 months ago. I've briefly skimmed through a few in past 10-15 years.
"While reading through some of your posts here I recently realized I had actually read some of your writings (under the Albalaha name) from about 2012--not sure when/where I had copied them from."
You were doing similar studies back then  :applause:


All the best,


Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: Albalaha on March 07, 2021, 05:44:08 AM
Quote from: KungFuBac on March 05, 2021, 07:17:20 AM
Hi Albalaha

Thx for your time/reply to my inquiry. I will email u by the weekend as I play bac most days mon-fri. and don't return home til early a.m. ,....etc.

"...You might be new to forum world(or might be there with some other name).."

     This is only bac forum ever joined. I started reading this forum about 8 months ago. I've briefly skimmed through a few in past 10-15 years.
"While reading through some of your posts here I recently realized I had actually read some of your writings (under the Albalaha name) from about 2012--not sure when/where I had copied them from."
You were doing similar studies back then  :applause:


All the best,
In 2012, I was neither naïve nor an expert but in between. Although by then I had good access to programmers, some of my writings could be fallacious. Still whatever I wrote had my experience and logic. I did a hell lot of manual and formula based testing on excel sheets apart from doing them on bots/trackers of Ophis, Victor and Stef. Gradually, I had more resources to work out and test more strategies.
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: Albalaha on March 08, 2021, 06:28:15 AM
The core of my strategy for an HG is to work out a long run progression that doesn't require too many chips ever and could sustain worst of the worst too, apart from doing well in little below average cases. Do not expect compensatory number of wins even after the worst.
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: KungFuBac on March 08, 2021, 05:18:02 PM
Thx Albalaha

I appreciate your replies. I did indeed notice a couple years back(2-3 maybe) you seemed to have hit a higher gear.
I continue to find gold nuggets in your essays (in your recent/as  well as older posts) as all your time/research is much appreciated.


My great grancester Confucius once say: " Do not seek all the answers at once, for a path is formed with first stone."


All the best,
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: alrelax on March 09, 2021, 12:43:41 AM
Quote from: KungFuBac on March 08, 2021, 05:18:02 PM
Thx Albalaha

I appreciate your replies. I did indeed notice a couple years back(2-3 maybe) you seemed to have hit a higher gear.
I continue to find gold nuggets in your essays (in your recent/as  well as older posts) as all your time/research is much appreciated.


My great grancester Confucius once say: " Do not seek all the answers at once, for a path is formed with first stone."


All the best,

Perfect.  Nice comments.

When one is conscious of his path he can add a lot of positive and great things to it.
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: Albalaha on March 09, 2021, 05:24:00 AM
I am indeed happy to be here in a compact yet disciplined and well behaved forum. I wish we get more of serious debaters and contributors here. :nod:
       Learning is an ongoing process and innovation needs out of box approach as well as deep knowledge.
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 15, 2021, 12:27:10 AM
Welcome back.

You are not losing anything by not attending other forums, that's for granted....

as.
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: Albalaha on March 15, 2021, 04:19:43 AM
Most of the active forums have abusive, uncontrolled mess. I m missing programmers and math wizards here. They helped me a lot in the past.
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: KungFuBac on March 15, 2021, 05:35:38 AM
Thx Albalaha. I appreciate your various threads/sharing of research.


It seems much of your earlier research(e.g., >=3 years ago) focused more on Roulette et al EC games vs the recent attention to Bac(just my perception).

Q1: Do you indeed mostly focus on Bac?
Q2: Was it the lower H.E. vs say Roulette et al? or the overall outcomes profile for Bac that seemed a better fit for your research?  Other?
Q3: In earlier years did u also pursue other EC games while hunting for the HG?


I frequently see/hear statements from players referencing Bac b/p  in comparison with Craps Dp/Pl. I recognize that both sets
of outcomes are considered similar re: H.E. However, in the example of craps i do NOT see a comparable profile for PL vs DP re: overall outcomes profile as well as streaks. Though Bac B vs P very similar, IMO.


Thx in advance for your answers/addendum thoughts.

Happy Pi Day To All,

3/14/21

Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: Albalaha on March 15, 2021, 06:11:57 AM
Q1: Do you indeed mostly focus on Bac?
Answer: My main focus is on EC betting and how to handle variance and HE together.
Q2: Was it the lower H.E. vs say Roulette et al? or the overall outcomes profile for Bac that seemed a better fit for your research?  Other?
Answer: Baccarat is faster than roulette and offers lesser house edge is preferable. I do prefer to bet Player than Banker.
Q3: In earlier years did u also pursue other EC games while hunting for the HG?[/quote]
Answer: I did try many things from sports to stock and a few other games with EC type betting. Actually being an EC bet is not a prerequisite but the payout should be fixed one. I can configure my strategy for playing a single number of roulette as well.
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: KungFuBac on March 18, 2021, 07:02:38 PM
Thx Albalaha
Appreciate you always promptly responding /answering my questions as best possible. I know at times they may be generic in nature, already addressed in old posts...etc/ you could easily just respond with a "well it depends" reply. Many Thanks.

You have several new ideas (or maybe just new and improved), that have inspired me to dust off some old wagering regimes.


?1)Since your preference is to wager P in Bac--Do you try to wager in shoe sections that may have a tendency to indeed provide optimum opportunities for a P win?

?2) Do you have a predetermined # of wagers per shoe that you will attempt (Wins and or L), and abandon the shoe because you lost X# of initial wagers( Or won X# of initial wagers)?
     For Example: Lets say you won your first 12 wagers on P and P is also now ahead by 12. Obviously, if we had to make a one time wager I think the majority of us would guess the final tally is more likely to have a difference of 2 vs 22.
??Or do you would you just view as its all random /one big shoe and continue playing that shoe wagering on P to continue its domination?

Thank you,





Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: Albalaha on March 19, 2021, 02:22:20 AM
?1)Since your preference is to wager P in Bac--Do you try to wager in shoe sections that may have a tendency to indeed provide optimum opportunities for a P win?
Ans: I wager P for the sake of convenience of calculating net losses and wins. It is as random as B and one can choose either of them or any EC bet for that matter.

?2) Do you have a predetermined # of wagers per shoe that you will attempt (Wins and or L), and abandon the shoe because you lost X# of initial wagers( Or won X# of initial wagers)?

Ans: Shoe or deck or any block of attempts do not matter. Every bet is independent and can be tried.

     For Example: Lets say you won your first 12 wagers on P and P is also now ahead by 12. Obviously, if we had to make a one time wager I think the majority of us would guess the final tally is more likely to have a difference of 2 vs 22.
??Or do you would you just view as its all random /one big shoe and continue playing that shoe wagering on P to continue its domination?

Ans: I already answered it. Do not try to predict in a random game by seeing earlier results as they are totally unrelated.

Come out of fallacies as they only help casinos and keep you confused eternally.
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: KungFuBac on March 23, 2021, 04:13:55 PM
Thanks Albalaha for your thoughts/opinions. Always appreciated..


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: shawresse on June 21, 2021, 08:48:22 AM
Post removed because it contained advertising and unsponsored links, Alrelax/Administrator and Board Owner
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: CameronGraham on August 13, 2021, 11:53:08 AM
Post removed due to unauthorized links and non-sponsorship advertising. 

Alrelax, Admin and Board Owner
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: KungFuBac on August 13, 2021, 03:06:54 PM
Hi CameronGraham

I like the way you think.

"... Few people understand that it is better to try different slots where you will have bonuses than to use one bonus at your favorite casino and no longer have this advantage in the future. In such a big competition, there are enough good alternatives.   ..."


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: GordonReid on April 27, 2022, 12:12:21 AM
Post removed due to unauthorized links and non-sponsorship advertising. 

Alrelax, Admin and Board Owner
Title: Re: Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
Post by: Albalaha on January 08, 2023, 07:18:00 AM
The truest holy grail lies in understanding randomness.