RePosted:
Quote from: Jimske on November 30, 2015, 06:18:46 PM
Nonsense. Total misread. I can take what I dish! Your posts were deleted because they were OFF TOPIC. You still haven't explained in any satisfactory way why one "negates an edge" by betting every hand. Neither has Gizmo and neither has asymbacc. So get off your high horse telling me what "we both know"
Here, they will be on topic.
Everyone knows that card counting 21 players wait for opportunity. It's not a mathematical advantage unless they deliberately target a favored condition.
Look at these spin results for 100 spins and 12 different dozens tracked in groups of threes: notice the red dominations?
.....x....xxxx.xxx...xx..x.x.....x..x.....xx..xxx.....xx..x....x...x.......x.x..xx.x..x...x...xx..x. -- 34
xx.x..xxxx....x...xxx.......x.x....x..xxxx..x....x...x..x..xxx..x.....xx..x.x.xx..x....xxx......x..x -- 38
..x.x..................xx.x..x.xx....x............xxx............xx.xx..xx..........xx.....xxx...x.. -- 24
....xx..x.x.x..x.x.x..x....xx..x.x..xxx...x.x.x..x....xx...x...x...xx.x...x.x...x.x...xx..x......xx. -- 36
..xx.......x.x.........xx.x..xx....x.....x......x.x..x....x.x.....x..x.xx..x..x..x......xx..x....... -- 26
xx....xx.x....x.x.x.xx...x......x......xx..x...x...xx...x....x..xx.......x...x.x...xxx.....x.xxxx..x -- 34
............x..xxx.x...xx...x...xx..x.x..x....x.x.x.x.x.....x..x..xx.x.xx.x.....x...x..x.....x...x.. -- 31
..x..xxx.xx..x....x..xx....x.x.........x..xx...x.......x..x.....x.....x....xxxxx.x.x.xx...x.......xx -- 32
xx.xx...x..x..x.....x....xx...xx...x.x..x...x....x.x.x..x..x.x...x..x....x........x.....xx.xx.xxx... -- 33
...........x..x..x.......xx...xxx.x.xx.......x..x....x..xx...xxx................x...........x.xx.x.. -- 24
..x..xxx.xx..x....x..xx....x.x.........x..xx...x.......x..x.....x.....x....xxxxx.x.x.xx...x.......xx -- 32
xx.xx...x...x..xx..xx..xx...x....x.x..x.xx..x.x..xxxx.x....xx....xxxxx.xxxx.......x.x..xxx.x.x..x... -- 44You could just bet on positions that look like they are heading into a domination, if you know how. Bet $2 per number in the dozen that might be in a state of domination; bet $1 per number on the other dozen that coincidentally appears not to be asleep.
BTW, Gr8player plays like a genius level professional player too.
Just in case you can't see it, notice these from the beginning of the first set of dozens. There's a shifting dominance of one dozen to another dozen while the last dozen dominates as a sleeper.
.....x....xxxx.xxx...xx..
xx.x..xxxx....x...xxx....
..x.x..................xx
The text of the chart is in proportionally spaced font style that is the same for dots (not hits) and X's (hits). So if you look up the columns perpendicular to their written form you can see which dozen hit in the set for each spin. It's a horizontal chart, the bigger chart being 100 spins. At the end of each row is a number representing how many times in that 100 spins that dozen hit.
Quote from: Gizmotron on November 30, 2015, 06:58:55 PM
RePosted:
Here, they will be on topic.
Everyone knows that card counting 21 players wait for opportunity. It's not a mathematical advantage unless they deliberately target a favored condition.
Look at these spin results for 100 spins and 12 different dozens tracked in groups of threes: notice the red dominations?
.....x....xxxx.xxx...xx..x.x.....x..x.....xx..xxx.....xx..x....x...x.......x.x..xx.x..x...x...xx..x. -- 34
xx.x..xxxx....x...xxx.......x.x....x..xxxx..x....x...x..x..xxx..x.....xx..x.x.xx..x....xxx......x..x -- 38
..x.x..................xx.x..x.xx....x............xxx............xx.xx..xx..........xx.....xxx...x.. -- 24
....xx..x.x.x..x.x.x..x....xx..x.x..xxx...x.x.x..x....xx...x...x...xx.x...x.x...x.x...xx..x......xx. -- 36
..xx.......x.x.........xx.x..xx....x.....x......x.x..x....x.x.....x..x.xx..x..x..x......xx..x....... -- 26
xx....xx.x....x.x.x.xx...x......x......xx..x...x...xx...x....x..xx.......x...x.x...xxx.....x.xxxx..x -- 34
............x..xxx.x...xx...x...xx..x.x..x....x.x.x.x.x.....x..x..xx.x.xx.x.....x...x..x.....x...x.. -- 31
..x..xxx.xx..x....x..xx....x.x.........x..xx...x.......x..x.....x.....x....xxxxx.x.x.xx...x.......xx -- 32
xx.xx...x..x..x.....x....xx...xx...x.x..x...x....x.x.x..x..x.x...x..x....x........x.....xx.xx.xxx... -- 33
...........x..x..x.......xx...xxx.x.xx.......x..x....x..xx...xxx................x...........x.xx.x.. -- 24
..x..xxx.xx..x....x..xx....x.x.........x..xx...x.......x..x.....x.....x....xxxxx.x.x.xx...x.......xx -- 32
xx.xx...x...x..xx..xx..xx...x....x.x..x.xx..x.x..xxxx.x....xx....xxxxx.xxxx.......x.x..xxx.x.x..x... -- 44
You could just bet on positions that look like they are heading into a domination, if you know how. Bet $2 per number in the dozen that might be in a state of domination; bet $1 per number on the other dozen that coincidentally appears not to be asleep.
So this explains mathematical edge? What are the dots for? Go ahead and explain this in simpler terms for those of us like me who are intellectually impaired.
QuoteBTW, Gr8player plays like a genius level professional player too.
So you continue reminding us.
[/quote]
Quote from: Jimske on November 30, 2015, 08:19:54 PM
So this explains mathematical edge? What are the dots for? Go ahead and explain this in simpler terms for those of us like me who are intellectually impaired.
Why does there have to be a mathematical edge for there to exist an advantage? If there are fluctuation waves that exist in early play, where the waves cycles above and below the base line value of the expected long term distribution of outcomes, commonly known as the house's edge, then for a while, the player has a mathematical short termed possibility of choosing to exit the game while in a positive position, especially if that position is just 1 unit up.
I find it disconcerting, that at a discussion forum about gambling, that my point is anything that excludes unclear. So don't act like I don't make sense. My point is simple. Why do I have to end my sessions on the base line value of the houses advantage or worse? You can't negate the existence of being ahead early on in a session. You can't deny the existence of fluctuating results from a session of betting. You are also clearly oblivious to the knowledge of coincidental circumstances. It is clearly possible to exit a steep downturn whenever you feel like it.
It takes all the spins to create a house's advantage. The casino doesn't make you bet the same amount and every spin too though. You have the control on when to quit, when to increase a bet, and when to pull back your bet amounts.
I can't play more than 300 spins in a session. There are often three or four magnificent opportunities that occur every 300 spins. I don't ignore them, you do. You use arithmetic as an excuse not to discover what I'm trying to show you. I'm glad you do that stubborn thing though. It makes discussions here kind of my advantage. And what's funny about that is you have no idea what you are missing, and that comes through with that stone wall of
probability is king thingy you do.
Quote from: Gizmotron on December 01, 2015, 07:33:01 PM
I can't play more than 300 spins in a session. There are often three or four magnificent opportunities that occur every 300 spins.
Even though I strongly think that roulette is an unbeatable game, for some reasons I like this statement.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on December 01, 2015, 09:02:12 PM
Even though I strongly think that roulette is an unbeatable game, for some reasons I like this statement.
The trick to taking advantage of these few opportunities is in positioning yourself first by not getting way behind in the session before reaching these opportunities in the first place. I know how to stay at even real easy. That skill must be learned first. 50/50 bets are great for this purpose. Attacking a sleeping dozen that sleeps from 15 to 30 spins in a row is easier still.
I hope you like these simple aspects of the game even more.
Quote from: Gizmotron on December 01, 2015, 09:16:49 PM
The trick to taking advantage of these few opportunities is in positioning yourself first by not getting way behind in the session before reaching these opportunities in the first place. I know how to stay at even real easy. That skill must be learned first. 50/50 bets are great for this purpose. Attacking a sleeping dozen that sleeps from 15 to 30 spins in a row is easier still.
I hope you like these simple aspects of the game even more.
Well, I have to admit that another very serious roulette player I've known keep saying the same things you are writing. So I begin to trust you.
Coincidentally, more or less, it's the same way of thought I apply at baccarat with 1 billion accuracy.
The differences with baccarat is that here we get a lower mathematical negative edge, finite card distributions and an asymmetrical factor.
So if you've found some positive expectation hints at roulette I think that at baccarat your edge should be higher.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on December 01, 2015, 10:01:17 PM
Well, I have to admit that another very serious roulette player I've known keep saying the same things you are writing. So I begin to trust you.
Coincidentally, more or less, it's the same way of thought I apply at baccarat with 1 billion accuracy.
The differences with baccarat is that here we get a lower mathematical negative edge, finite card distributions and an asymmetrical factor.
So if you've found some positive expectation hints at roulette I think that at baccarat your edge should be higher.
I have not found a positive expectation while treading water in the 50/50 bets, any 18 numbers bet at a time. I get a grinding down that tends to follow the 2.7 / 5.4 percent decline of the house advantage while waiting. None of that bothers me much though. In live play, I'm expected to make minimum level bets by the casinos. What I'm waiting for are the opportunities that allow for huge dominations of 12 numbers at a time. They include many different ways of searching for strong streaks of the same 12 numbers hitting or strong streaks of the same 12 numbers sleeping. Another great thing is dominating singles or dominating series of dozen. One big kill per session is all that is needed to upset any slight mathematical disadvantage. It completely negates the deleterious effect of the slow grind downward.
It appears you are addressing me. Making too many assumptions about what I think and do.
Quote from: Gizmotron on December 01, 2015, 07:33:01 PM
Why does there have to be a mathematical edge for there to exist an advantage?
I suppose it has something to do with predictability?
QuoteIf there are fluctuation waves that exist in early play, where the waves cycles above and below the base line value of the expected long term distribution of outcomes, commonly known as the house's edge, then for a while, the player has a mathematical short termed possibility of choosing to exit the game while in a positive position, especially if that position is just 1 unit up.
IMO the only reason there exists a HA is again the inability to predict from random outcomes. What you are speaking of here seems to me to be a long way round to what I call "bias" and it is something I work with all the time as a trend player.
QuoteI find it disconcerting, that at a discussion forum about gambling, that my point is anything that excludes unclear. So don't act like I don't make sense. My point is simple. Why do I have to end my sessions on the base line value of the houses advantage or worse? You can't negate the existence of being ahead early on in a session. You can't deny the existence of fluctuating results from a session of betting. You are also clearly oblivious to the knowledge of coincidental circumstances. It is clearly possible to exit a steep downturn whenever you feel like it.
:)Am I?
QuoteIt takes all the spins to create a house's advantage. The casino doesn't make you bet the same amount and every spin too though. You have the control on when to quit, when to increase a bet, and when to pull back your bet amounts.
Now you sound like the late Stetson Bailey. No argument with the obvious.
QuoteI can't play more than 300 spins in a session. There are often three or four magnificent opportunities that occur every 300 spins. I don't ignore them, you do. You use arithmetic as an excuse not to discover what I'm trying to show you. I'm glad you do that stubborn thing though. It makes discussions here kind of my advantage. And what's funny about that is you have no idea what you are missing, and that comes through with that stone wall of probability is king thingy you do.
You sure you speaking to me here? I do nothing of the kind you suggest.
Quote from: Jimske on December 01, 2015, 10:21:57 PM
IMO the only reason there exists a HA is again the inability to predict from random outcomes.
It is not necessary to predict the results of future events in order to effectively exploit future opportunities: Example the same 30 sleeping dozens in a row. The first two bets makes all the rest of the wins a free ride. For me that would be at least 25 wins in a row before a loss. BTW, a loss is a hint that the trend does not work anymore. Math during these 30 spins is worthless too.
Let's try this backwards. Because the house has two green zeros that don't belong to any of my dozen sets on the table layout, I can't take advantage of 25 singles in a row. The casino runs out and puts me in handcuffs and a giant calculator falls out of the sky and puts super glue all over my chips so that I can't use them. Then the math police come and water board me because it's against the law to break the law of averages.
"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES."
Quote from: Gizmotron on December 01, 2015, 10:41:54 PM
It is not necessary to predict the results of future events in order to effectively exploit future opportunities:
Sounds like semantics and/or double talk to me. Opportunity abounds at every spin. To examine PAST events and successfully exploit that OPPORTUNITY can be qualified as either a positive expectation or a negative expectation.
Quote from: Gizmotron on November 30, 2015, 08:00:59 PM
Just in case you can't see it, notice these from the beginning of the first set of dozens. There's a shifting dominance of one dozen to another dozen while the last dozen dominates as a sleeper.
.....x....xxxx.xxx...xx..
xx.x..xxxx....x...xxx....
..x.x..................xx
The text of the chart is in proportionally spaced font style that is the same for dots (not hits) and X's (hits). So if you look up the columns perpendicular to their written form you can see which dozen hit in the set for each spin. It's a horizontal chart, the bigger chart being 100 spins. At the end of each row is a number representing how many times in that 100 spins that dozen hit.
I'm still at a loss to read the above. Perhaps some one else can chime in and enlighten me? No? Perhaps nobody gets it?
It's all Greek to me.
What can I say?
Quote from: bjb007 on December 02, 2015, 10:33:06 AM
What can I say?
You can say anything you choose but have chosen to say nothing.
Quote from: Gizmotron on November 30, 2015, 08:00:59 PM
.....x....xxxx.xxx...xx..
xx.x..xxxx....x...xxx....
..x.x..................xx
Jim what Giz is saying is that he tracks the dozens horizontally and that this chart above reads like this for the dozens
2232312222111121112221122
Quote from: greenguy on December 02, 2015, 03:53:32 AM
It's all Greek to me.
If it was Greek to you, then you would be complaining that stealing other people's money isn't enough to meet your needs, that your elected government has failed you.
Are you specially impaired? A dot means it didn't hit in that dozen of the set. An X means that it did hit in that dozen of the set. This is an example of a set: 1-12, 13-24, and 25-36. A spin can only fall in one dozen of any set at a time. This process of charting is known in the gambling world, on discussion forums, as communication. This chart is an attempt to communicate an idea to its readers. You do understand that this is a chart of 100 spins don't you? Perhaps you are viewing these charts on a very small screen and the line returns are messing the charts up? They look great on my laptop.
Quote from: Big EZ on December 02, 2015, 06:28:55 PM
Jim what Giz is saying is that he tracks the dozens horizontally and that this chart above reads like this for the dozens
2232312222111121112221122
Yes, I try to use any kind of chart that reveals a pattern or dominance through visual dexterity. You can see a pattern or a dominance without having to reason it out. Even this is better than as one single un-pronounceable word:
22 3 2 3 1 2222 1111 2 111 222 11 22
:) That does help! These methods are easy if you know them. Try to explain them . . . another story. I've written two "manuals" for Baccarat play. Granted, one was a bit complicated and took me 20 pages to explain it along with visuals. The other was easier but still took a little doing before it could be understood by the uninitiated.
Quote from: Jimske on December 02, 2015, 07:10:50 PM
:) That does help! These methods are easy if you know them. Try to explain them . . . another story. I've written two "manuals" for Baccarat play. Granted, one was a bit complicated and took me 20 pages to explain it along with visuals. The other was easier but still took a little doing before it could be understood by the uninitiated.
OK, let me try to explain a kind of parlaying type of an option. Let's just say that you are hunting for a sleeping dozen streak. Let's see how hard it is to explain a concept.
Say you go for the second sleeper in a row in a set of dozens, example 1-12. Let's say that that dozen slept once. So you bet enough on the other two dozens on the next spin that a win will allow you to bet 2 units on each dozen the next time for free. So I bet 4 & 4 on dozens 13-24 and 25-36. It wins. The sleeper holds up. 1-12 did not hit. Now you can try for a seven step parlay. 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 6-6, 9-9, 13-13, and 20-20. These seven steps are at no risk. You have taken 8 units and converted the win into 4 units, at no risk for later bets, in just one spin. All you need is 7 more sleepers or singles in a row. That's no risk to make 60 units. Eventually you are going to hit seven in a row. It happens all the time.
Now let's see if that is understandable. Others can explain it all in other terms perhaps, just to see.
example ?
Quote from: ice789 on December 03, 2015, 06:46:17 AM
example ?
That's one vote for not seeing it by written description, in other words, without an example, perhaps.
How about you or someone else creating an example from the description.
Giz...
As far as your example it is very clear. Please don't let the topic die :stress:
3 bet for d3 to sleep 8 times
1 W 4-4
1 W 2-2
2 W 3-3
1 W 4-4
2 W 6-6
2 W 9-9
2 W 13-13
2 W 20-20
My questions...
You say it happens all the time. How often in 100/200/300 spins does a dozen sleep for 8 times in a row?
If my math is correct does this mean there are 1,251,677,700 different 12 number combinations that can be made from 36 numbers? How many combinations have you created to play in a casino environment, if you don't mind sharing
Quote from: Big EZ on December 03, 2015, 05:59:15 PM
You say it happens all the time. How often in 100/200/300 spins does a dozen sleep for 8 times in a row?
If my math is correct does this mean there are 1,251,677,700 different 12 number combinations that can be made from 36 numbers? How many combinations have you created to play in a casino environment, if you don't mind sharing
As far as the example of the 100 spin chart there are at least 10 locations from the 4 sets of three dozen possibilities from above that have 9 sleepers in a row or more. I track 12 different dozens, six are table layout bets and six are from two memorized sets and placed as inside layout bets. To be clear, a set is 36 unique numbers to bet from at a time.
Gizmo,
Using just the posted snapshot of your chart, how many times does a dozen sleep for the required 8 spins?
I can see only 1.
Quote from: greenguy on December 03, 2015, 08:04:51 PM
Gizmo,
Using just the posted snapshot of your chart, how many times does a dozen sleep for the required 8 spins?
I can see only 1.
If you guys can't track dozens and columns and see sleepers in those spins then I feel sorry for you.
Quote from: Gizmotron on December 01, 2015, 09:16:49 PM
The trick to taking advantage of these few opportunities is in positioning yourself first by not getting way behind in the session before reaching these opportunities in the first place. I know how to stay at even real easy. That skill must be learned first. 50/50 bets are great for this purpose. Attacking a sleeping dozen that sleeps from 15 to 30 spins in a row is easier still.
I hope you like these simple aspects of the game even more.
I like this statment very much.
Cheers
Hey Greenguy. What's red and sits in the corner?
Answer ( a baby chewing on razor blades, )
Hey Greenguy. What's green and sits in the corner?
Answer ( same baby a week later, )
Quote from: Gizmotron on December 04, 2015, 07:17:38 PM
Hey Greenguy. What's red and sits in the corner?
Answer ( a baby chewing on razor blades, )
Hey Greenguy. What's green and sits in the corner?
Answer ( same baby a week later, )
Yeah, well all I can say is that's very poor parenting.. lol
could there be a way of differentially betting all 3 dozens or 2 dozens to find the one winner that sleeps 7 times
Quote from: Tomla on December 05, 2015, 04:28:41 PM
could there be a way of differentially betting all 3 dozens or 2 dozens to find the one winner that sleeps 7 times
You could try for one or two steps at a time. If you hit a long streak of a sleeper you could build up a few one or two step starts. Then you could do step three & step four parts at other opportunities. Just grind ahead.
Quote from: greenguy on December 05, 2015, 10:52:38 AM
Yeah, well all I can say is that's very poor parenting.. lol
A few decades ago there was this "Dead Baby" joke craze. Back then, parents were looking for any good reason to kill off their nagging children. ............ (
just kidding)
Dead baby wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_baby_jokes
Like I said at the beginning, 21, Black Jack, players have a validated advantage if they choose to count the cards and exploit the recorded advantage with higher bets. These occurrences of discovering advantages are known as exploiting the variable change. I know advantages occur in Roulette because of shear coincidence and for no other reason.
It might be coined as coincidental change. The occurrences happen because of randomness. There is no memory from the wheel. It happens in fair RNG's and even in card based Roulette, like California style Roulette, too. The best tactic is the same as the 21 players, attack the advantage state. Now I want to be very clear here. This advantage I speak of only exists in my mind. I have used my own construct to identify that each construct's characteristicness conforms to prerequisite qualities. If they exist, I attack the proposed possibility that the trend will continue as expected. So I boldly press forward with no expectation that the tactic will be a success or that the trend will continue.
So what is it that I have disclosed here? I have admitted to pet prerequisite qualities that I prefer to utilize. That and that it is not a great concern to me if I were to lose the first or second bet of an advantage bet. It's those two bets that let me take the long rides of a winning streak. I know I'm going to lose many of them in a long session. I've yet to explain in detail over the years since 2007, on various forums, even including this one, how I use my construct to identify prerequisite qualities or to live with losses. I've tried to explain them as a quality that is only appreciated through playing experience. That each person must find their own qualities and difficulties in order to become properly experienced as a good player.
That experience can be gained in only one way, actual play or practice play that is real world. That is why I created my practice software. I can play in a way to experience prerequisite qualities and the coincidences of upturns and downturns. A person must know what works and what does not work, and they must learn it for themselves. I've provided the construct, the practice software, and the characteristic modeling for your learning pleasure. After all, gambling is entertainment isn't it? You can confirm for yourself what works best for you. That's all I have ever claimed, except for the occasional baloney festival that I used to dump on people just for fun in years past, because, gambling is supposed to be entertainment isn't it? >:D