I heard about bitcoin while it was hardly a year old and had miniscule value. Once I was offered 5000 bitcoins in return of one of my system that I denied because I had no means to put in any casino back then nor could I get it cashed in India, that time. Then I heard of it, 5-6 years thereafter while it reached $1,000. I thought oh, had I taken 5,000 bitcoins back then and kept as investment I would have had $5 millions. Anyways, I had a misconception that I can't buy bitcoin in fractions and I thought it has already saturated too. By the time bitcoin reached $50k, I bought ripple for about $3. It started sinking then and bitcoin started crashing daily too. I thought it is over now. I sold ripples at little loss correctly as it went as bad as few cents too.
Now for a year or so, it again going great. I have bitcoin, ripple, doe, cardano, shiba inu, etc, eth and a few more and I can see good growth too. Shiba Inu, in particular has outdone bitcoin too. Any of you are into crypto? Any predictions?
Good to see you on the boards.
Anyway, in 2017 around Thanksgiving time here in the Colonies, some friends and I were discussing the relatively new concept (to us) of Blockchain and BitCoin and all of that and pretty much decided it was a giant Ponzi scheme with an excellent mathematical back end.
The alcohol was flowing and we eventually all put up $1000US to purchase a "1/10" interest in a BitCoin, each. Mainly just for grins. As it was more gambling money than any kind of serious investment, it was joke money over a holiday.
We watched it for awhile and then kind of just blew it off as a novelty and nobody wanted to cash in so it still sits there in my account. One tenth of a BitCoin.
Do I take BitCoin seriously? No. Absolutely not. It is not part of any plan for the future, retirement, working or even my gambling account. It is merely a blip on the screen of life and I'll just watch it move up and down from time to time.
"Investing" in BitCoin is a bit of a misnomer for sure. As with most of the crypto world, people buy into ANY coin that starts up with the hope of riding it to a higher value down the road. Buying 100,000 "coins" of some newly marketed name at .0000001 cents a coin is only meant to have others pile in after you so that you can sell your "vast holdings" when the valuation gets up to a half cent, hopefully.
Using BitCoin as some kind of investment tool is not really a good idea. Just looking at the major players in BitCoin should set off warning flags in a person's head. It's a gambling coin, not a life style investment choice.
Am I planning on selling my BitCoin in the future? I doubt it. It's always fun to explain to people how I've really made a killing (not really) with my initial $1000 joke purchase. As the money came out of my gambling account, it won't hurt a bit if BitCoin craters to nothing in the future.
BitCoin continues to hold its own at the 60K level due to mass media never saying anything bad about it.
Sound familiar?
Anyway, that's just my take on it. It is my own personal opinion and that is all anyone should take it as.
I do know two people who have basically swapped out their retirement accounts to purchase BitCoin for the future. I find those people to be terribly short sighted and not very good at retirement planning but it is their choice. I'll leave BitCoin to the realm of digital gambling.
AD
Captain,
Yours or my perceptions does not change the reality. Like it or not. Bitcoin is a big concept with real market values that could astonish anybody. Shiba Inu grew a billion times in a year without seeking permission of yours or mine. We do not have any control over its future. It could grow further or doom at once. My point is, have you taken a plunge into it and your experience or exposure in it.
Bitcoin and other big altcoins are running in waves.
(https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/8yUasaPxgGR4GOIkPRumjdy0Nkc=/750x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(webp)/ScreenShot2022-06-13at11.35.43AM-207293d34dcb445a887ab244ef9e377f.png)
Predictions say that it will see all time high in 2024 again. Presently, it is sinking day by day. Is it right time to pour some money?
Good streak in all cryptos for last few days.
Year 2023 is doing great for all cryptos. Bitcoin is about to touch its 52 week high. Year 2024 is said to get all time high of bitcoin and some other altcoins too. What do you say?
Hi albalaah
Good chart/ interesting.
"Predictions say that it will see all time high in 2024 again. Presently, it is sinking day by day. Is it right time to pour some money?"
My research suggest this recent uptick for Bitcoin is only temporary and we will actually see <=14k levels <= 12/2024.
*Personally I think the blockchain technology is great going forward. However, I don't perceive that owning the actual crypto such as Bitcoin as being the optimum way to invest in this technology.
Continued Success,
On every halving, bitcoin reached a new all time high that is usually at least 50% up from the last run highest. 2024 is the year of bitcoin halving. Do not forget one peculiar thing about bitcoin. It was the pioneer and all other coins are altcoins. It has an all time maximum supply of 21 millions. Hence, it will go scarcer like diamonds, year by year. I firmly believe that bitcoin should touch levels over $50k by the end of 2023 itself or maximum by April 2024. Let us see this. 2023 will decide its fate, for sure.
Hi Albalaha
"Do not forget one peculiar thing about bitcoin. It was the pioneer, and all other coins are altcoins."
I agree and think that is an important attribute. Similar to Twitter, or the first cell-phone company tower in an area, or the first cable/internet company that dug a ditch through our back yard....etc. The first or incumbent company not only enjoys the name or brand recognition but typically has many other advantages going forward.
"n every halving, bitcoin reached a new all-time high that is usually at least 50% up from the last run highest. 2024 is the year of bitcoin halving. "
I would agree that 2024 may but not in 2023. I think if we spread out the chart above, we will see Bitcoin is actually still in a bear market. Though I do agree it has approached a key metric in the past few days. My technical charts suggest it will need to increase 2-3K more from current levels in the very near future to clear this hurdle. I may be wrong but view this recent uptick as a fake out.
Caveat emptor.
Continued Success,
Bitcoin increased about 35% in January 2023 alone, so far within 26 days. It could be an indicator of its next highest value ever. IF this trend continues even for 2-3 months, seeing a level of $45k is no big deal. Bitcoin and shiba inu, alongwith some other coins have grown to unimaginable levels which had never been predictable. IT is for sure that bitcoin will go scarcer day by day and that factor alone will push its price to any extent. If the entire concept of crypto fails, which is not likely anytime soon, I do not see much threat to bitcoin atleast. Bitcoin Halving is Predicted to Occur on Tuesday Apr 16, 2024.
Historically, the cryptocurrency experiences massive price increase during its halving episodes, increasing its value by 1,263% between the 2016 and 2020 occurrences of this important event.
With the trend, it is projected that by March 23, 2024, a single unit of BTC will have a value of $120,263. In 2009, the reward for each block in the chain mined was 50 bitcoins. After the first halving, it was 25, and then 12.5, and then it became 6.25 bitcoins per block as of May 11, 2020. To put this in another context, imagine if the amount of gold mined out of the Earth was cut in half every four years. If gold's value is based on its scarcity, then a "halving" of gold output every four years would theoretically drive its price higher.
This is a very unique proposition with bitcoin that does not apply to other altcoins. Many have unlimited or near unlimited supply like XRP or SHIB. They may grow along but not to the levels of bitcoin. Even it is possible that after this halving, Bitcoin does not go down but keeps doing great due to FOMO (the fear of missing out). 21 millions is not a big number when everybody will seek it.
Remember we keep getting new goldmines and yet gold is getting costlier and scarcer due to its massive demand and value everybody wants to have a bit of it.if Bitcoin becomes a rare and precious asset with international acceptance, I see no reason for it going doomed.I m not so sure about other altcoins though.
I saw this article on Breitbart news 2/23/23.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/02/23/more-criminal-charges-for-ftx-founder-Sam-bankman-fried/ (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/02/23/more-criminal-charges-for-ftx-founder-Sam-bankman-fried/)
There is a strong resistance against price growth of bitcoin at $25k. Once it crosses $30k mark, it will skyrocket. We might see an all time high price within a year and half max. If it doesn't work that way even upto 2024, it will lose its lustre and charm forever and could crash huge.
As I expected and predicted, it broke the price barrier and getting costlier by more than $1k every day. No wonder it gets all time high before we thought it to reach there.
Hi albalaha--You may be correct. Though my opinion differs.
In my opinion this hurdle above the current (3/21/23) range of 28.4k will be crucial and determine if it pulls back or continues. In my opinion it will pull back in the near future (caveat emptor my friend).
My research suggests the current price has been largely manipulated and "the big players" will tamp it back down to a lower range so they can pound the bounce and siphon money from "the small players".
There is evidence of this occurrence at several levels and most recently when it was in the 16.5--18.5 range. It is much easier to profit on the bounce/rebound in a defined range than to buy/hold.
This opinion above coupled with my theory that many additional banks (at least in the USA) are in bad shape and also exposed to crypto (directly and indirectly). Plus the USA Feds recently bailed them out(so they now have more cash to put into hi-risk investments) creates a tumultuous environment for the near future.
My grreeaat uncle once told me, "Grasshopper: Friends don't let friends buy crypto."
Continued Success,
It is already over $30k. Those who were skeptic of its growth have missed almost 90% growth when it was at $16,600 levels at 31st December 2022. It was near $20k in June 2022. Even from there, it is 50% up. This year we will see $50k levels for sure and a single fortnight can be sufficient to pull this much price. If it doesn't reach a new all time high by 2024, its bubble will bust forever.
Hi albalaha
Hope you're doing well.
re: "...Those who were skeptic of its growth have missed almost 90% growth when it was at $16,600 levels at 31st December 2022. It was near $20k in Ju.."
That would be me. I bought a small nonmeaningful amount of crypto (including Bitcoin) when Bitcoin had dropped from $60K+ down to the 20K level. IMO and based on my research/statistical analysis I projected Bitcoin would have difficulty getting past the 27K--28 range and actually thought it would stall there, retreat, then go higher than 28K in latter 2023 or 24.
I still think it is being artificially manipulated by a few large investors and we will see a pullback (much sooner than many think), mostly due to these larger investors. Not because its true value is fluctuating.
IMO these larger investors find it easier to make larger returns/quicker returns when its dropping or bouncing in a narrow range they have predetermined(See the large transactions when bouncing @ 16.5k--18k).
So my thinking is after several bounces cycles only then will we see it powering higher. I still do not like the valuation metrics for Bitcoin or any crypto. However, that doesn't mean it can't or won't go higher--or--that I may simply be wrong.
My next buy will be when it regresses to the 14K levels.
Alb, I hope you are correct/ good luck with it.
Continued Success,
8/12/23 Bitcoin @ 29,406 with a recent 90-Day @ (r= 26,649--31,603).
Recently the Larry Fink(Yes that's his last name), CEO of Blackrock(largest asset mgmt company ~~9Trillion), announces they have filed for a Bitcoin ETF.
I find this concerning on two fronts.
1) Just a few years ago Fink said Bitcoin was a fraud and mainly for money laundering:
"...Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO:
2017: Bitcoin is an index of money laundering.
2023: Bitcoin could revolutionize finance. Files for a Bitcoin ETF...."
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/07/07/blackrock-ceo-larry-finks-turnabout-on-bitcoin-elicits-cheers-skepticism-from-crypto-insiders/ (https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/07/07/blackrock-ceo-larry-finks-turnabout-on-bitcoin-elicits-cheers-skepticism-from-crypto-insiders/)
2)USA vs Grayscale . An ETF was denied and currently being heard in court proceedings.
"US court questions SEC's rejection of Grayscale's bitcoin fund proposal"
https://www.reuters.com/legal/court-set-hear-arguments-grayscales-lawsuit-against-sec-over-bitcoin-fund-2023-03-07/ (https://www.reuters.com/legal/court-set-hear-arguments-grayscales-lawsuit-against-sec-over-bitcoin-fund-2023-03-07/)
So now we have a U.S. and Biden administrations ally Blackrock and Larry Fink wanting a Bitcoin ETF.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/23/blackrocks-game-changing-bitcoin-etf-what-every-in/ (https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/23/blackrocks-game-changing-bitcoin-etf-what-every-in/)
In my opinion going forward we will see Bitcon being pumped up further until the ETF is approved and then a steep decline. The large investors (including countries) profiting greatly and the small investors losing.
I am not an investing expert and have been incorrect in past on bitcons price. I see the near future as a "pump and dump" situation. Though it may go skyhigh and many will make money from the volatility. I simply do not see the intrinsic value in Bitcon and still say "caveat emptor"
https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=88f90e881fbfd4c7JmltdHM9MTY5MTc5ODQwMCZpZ3VpZD0zZTdhMmIzZS03MThmLTY2MTItMzk2OS0zOTVmNzU4ZjY4MmEmaW5zaWQ9NTY0NA&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=3e7a2b3e-718f-6612-3969-395f758f682a&u=a1L2ltYWdlcy9zZWFyY2g_cT1iaXRjb24gbW91c2UgdHJhcCBwaG90byZGT1JNPUlRRlJCQSZpZD1CRDkxOTQ1RkQ0NDBFNjc5QTI4Q0NGMzNFOThBNUMxOUNBODNBQjc1&ntb=1 (https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=88f90e881fbfd4c7JmltdHM9MTY5MTc5ODQwMCZpZ3VpZD0zZTdhMmIzZS03MThmLTY2MTItMzk2OS0zOTVmNzU4ZjY4MmEmaW5zaWQ9NTY0NA&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=3e7a2b3e-718f-6612-3969-395f758f682a&u=a1L2ltYWdlcy9zZWFyY2g_cT1iaXRjb24gbW91c2UgdHJhcCBwaG90byZGT1JNPUlRRlJCQSZpZD1CRDkxOTQ1RkQ0NDBFNjc5QTI4Q0NGMzNFOThBNUMxOUNBODNBQjc1&ntb=1)
Good Investing To All,kfb
It is pretty debatable whether it has an intrinsic value or not as crypto doesn't have much of history to learn from. It is all about demand and supply and fear and greed. One thing I am very sure about is, it (Bitcoin)is scarcer than diamonds and big corporates whales are into it, so it is not going to finish anytime soon. A big rise in prices is expected around bitcoin halving. It could be used as one of the varied mode of investments that we can opt for. I would advise putting 10% of your investments in it. Diversy with top 10 cryptos while keeping main focus on bitcoin.
Hi Albalaha
"...(Bitcoin)is scarcer than diamonds and big corporates whales are into it, so it is not going to finish anytime soon. A big rise in prices is expected around bitcoin halving. ..."
I hope you are correct. I do agree w you and think it will increase significantly in the future( and will also tank at times). Though IMO these huge swings in volatility won't be due to a sudden change in value.
An example:
Tesla (TSLA) bought $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin in February 2021 (about 4,200 BTC), causing a flurry of excitement in the crypto space. The company's CEO, Elon Musk, tweeted "#bitcoin," a post that resulted in a 17% surge in the digital asset's price.
Who owns the most Bitcoin?
https://cryptonews.com/exclusives/who-owns-the-most-bitcoin.htm (https://cryptonews.com/exclusives/who-owns-the-most-bitcoin.htm)
Continued Success,
In recent news, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager with a whopping $10 trillion under management, has expressed its bullish stance on Bitcoin, highlighting the growing mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies.
Hi Albalaha
Thx for post above.
Bitcon today 8/18 ~~25,800 w a weekly (r=25,800--30,500).
This is the kind of volatility I was speaking of recently in an above post. The "intrinsic" value of Bitcoin didn't change this much. Though a lot of people made a nice profit this past week wagering on the fluctuations within this band (r=25,800--30,500). The larger (and likely the early investors) made money while the smaller (& likely the recent investors) panicked and will sell out of their positions quicker. The larger investors will "rinse & repeat" this scenario regardless of if Bitcoin is at 20K or 60K.
Alb
"...BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager with a whopping $10 trillion under management, has expressed its bullish stance on Bitcoin, highlighting the growing mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies...."
I would too if I just applied for an ETF(on bitcoin).
This ETF is a game changer as this will permit large entities(largest/earliest investors and countries,..etc) to manipulate (Affect price with a much smaller investment) on Bitcoin.
*This is similar to the current manipulation of the Gold markets with the GLD ETF. Entities that want to make the U.S. Dollars appear stronger (To siphon from countries with a weak currency) can affect the price range for the actual metal. It is important to note that for every 1oz of Gold in possession right now there is approx 30X as much "paper" ownership. This can continue until a high% or large ownership requests physical delivery of their Gold.
I guess my reservation on all things Bitcoin is that we as owners of Bitcoin do not get royalties or a tiny % from each transaction (like banks /credit card processors). Plus, the majority of the main patent holders for all-things-blockchain, are owned by large banks and wealthy corp groups such as albalaha(Not to be confused with our forums' albalaha, :).
albalaha has approximately 2298 blockchain patents. The majority of the others are owned by large financial institutions such as JP Morgan, Bank of America,...etc.
**I bought bitcoin the last time it was approx 20K, immediately used the volatility to make gold/silver purchases (More intrinsic value /less volatility). I will buy again when it drops to ~~14K USD, rinse & repeat. Though I do acknowledge it could reach the range of 60K--120K prior to my hypothesis of 14K.
Just my opinions.
Good investing to all,
Meant to say above:
"...Plus, the majority of the main patent holders for all-things-blockchain, are owned by large banks and wealthy corp groups such as "albalaha" [/color]b](Not to be confused with our forums' albalaha, :).
Meant to say albalaha, the B2B eCommerce platform that owns almost 2298 blockchain patents.
Tried to edit. Meant to say albalaha, owner of 2298 blockchain patents.
For some reason I can't figure out how to change a misspelled word/correct.
It is right time to invest more into top 20 crypto and not just bitcoin. I expect about 30-80% return within a year. Let's see.
Hi Albalaha
I like the idea of selecting only the top 20 or so cryptos if one is investing long term.
I track five of the more commonly accepted cryptos/ currently own a very small stake in BTC,ETH, and Doge. Though I plan on purchasing more BTC when it hits 14k.
Mainly because the following five cryptos are accepted by many precious metals dealers that I do business.
I like to utilize crypto after it pops >=7% and then I buy precious metals, which obviously has a historically much higher intrinsic value and much less volatility.
The precious metal dealers (or any business) don't care how one makes a transaction as they instantaneously convert to U.S. Dollars. Generally, the best discount is to pay with an echeck, ACH, or Cashier's Check. As obviously they don't want to pay the banking fees/ clearing house fees from Visa and others. One of the main reasons I perceive cryptos and blockchain technology will never completely go away. Just an opinion.
Generally, when I use crypto it will be roughly 1.5% higher vs the three options above (Thus the desire for a pop up in the volatility of crypto). My best purchase was after a 13% crypto increase. That day it had actually popped up 16% but I couldn't get a buy in quick enough.
Five most commonly accepted: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Dogecoin (DOGE), Litecoin (LTC), and Shiba Inu (SHIB). Other than the first three I don't perceive any others having but only the slightest intrinsic value as an investment. However, they can be used for other purposes, IMO.
Most also accept the following five USD-pegged stablecoins (GUSD, USDC, USDP, DAI, and BUSD) and Circle Euro Coin (EUROC) a stablecoin backed by the Euro.
Another reason to only invest in the top 10-20 or so cryptos:
How many cryptocurrencies are there? In short, there were over 9,000 as of 2023, although there were many more digital coins in the early months of 2022. Note, however, that a large portion of cryptocurrencies might not be that significant. There are other estimates of roughly 20,000 cryptocurrencies being in existence, but most of these are either inactive or discontinued. Due to how open the creation process of a cryptocurrency is, it is relatively easy to make one. Indeed, the top 20 cryptocurrencies make up nearly 90 percent of the total market.
Per the following link:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/863917/number-crypto-coins-tokens/
Continued Success,
DOGE has a circulating supply of 140 Billions and Shiba Inu is like in Quadrillians. I do not see much hope in any of them being memecoins and virtually kind of infinite. Although I do have both in my portfolio considering they are far away from their All time high and should correct atleast 50%. Bitcoin, BCH, ETC, ETH, LTC, Solana, Monero etc. look most promising to me. Even XRP seems to better but even its supply will stop it going over $10, in any case. Bitcoin will remain at max 21 millons and is the father of all other coins will stay longer and safer.
Many says that bitcoin will go at $1 Millon but it is hard to believe as it will then account for 21 trillion dollars in bitcoin alone while entire world owns less than $100 trillions as cash or liquid money. But bitcoin going at $100k is easily possible.
Regarding buying precious metals specially gold, has been proven to be least volatile and most rewarding. Real estate in the fast growing cities is also a nice investment.
I would suggest maximum 10% of your investment should be in crypto.
Delayed decision re: Bitcoin ETF application by Black Rock.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/etf/bitcoin-etf-spot-sec-ark-21-shares-crypto-market-2023-9 (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/etf/bitcoin-etf-spot-sec-ark-21-shares-crypto-market-2023-9)
Time to add crypto every month as a systematic investment plan. Decentralized finance is still in its nacsent stage and has to grow at least 10 folds in coming 10 years. Then it might kind of saturate. Let us see if history repeats itself around bitcoin halving in 2024 or a new history will be written.
I agree albalaha in that cryptos may be a positive investment going forward. However, I think many of the current cryptos will cease to exist ten years from now (if not sooner). I am monitoring a few and continue to like what I see from one you mentioned awhile back: XNO (Nano). In part due to its "relatively" low volatility in recent months.
I'm continuing to monitor the Blackrock application for a Bitcoin ETF as I think investing in it at the very beginning (immediately after its approval). Mainly to give one an opportunity to Short has some potential leveraging options going forward.
Bitcoin gives up gains after BlackRock denies ETF approval report (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/bitcoin-gives-up-gains-after-blackrock-denies-etf-approval-report/ar-AA1ijleZ)
Continued Success,
I am just waiting for upto six months after bitcoin halving. If there is no significant progress in bitcoin and other altcoins by then, crypto will no longer be considered a viable thing.
Thx for your thoughts Albalaha.
I'm also monitoring BITI(Proshares Short Bitcoin ETF) and have already bought a stake in this.
I'm in anticipatory mode waiting to see what the U.S. government decides on the Blackrock ETF application. I believe a leverage opportunity may present if one can jump on the Blackrock ETF immediately after its offering (if it does indeed get approved).
My opinion is that it will as the U.S. Gov wants to control the whole crypto game. This is important when a country wants to prop up its currency (and the U.S. Gov) most certainly does. It's also important to watch gold prices and how Gold is involved in countries' manipulation of their respective currencies.
Continued Success,
Bitcoin rushing towards an all time high figure, as I predicted. This year, Bitcoin and some other stable coins which are not in abundance like sand will reach its zenith.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Approved by SEC, Cleared To Start Trading Thursday1/11/24
I agree Albalaha. Bitcoin will continue with its volatility (Though intrinsic value won't necessarily change in either direction). However, one can still make alot of money investing in bitcoin et al cryptos.
I purchased a very small stake in the Short Bitcoin (BITI) awhile back. I may try to purchase some of Blackrocks' Bitcoin ETF immediately after it opens just to be able to play it both ways(at least once or in the short term). This ETF market will be like the crack cocaine of investing.
IMO it will allow the very early and the very large Bitcoin owners to leverage the market at a fraction of the cost. Huge swings in the years ahead/ they will scalp the small investor.
*A really good read is the book : The Big Short by M. Lewis. This book depicts what happened in the 2008 market collapse in the USA. It sheds light on what the financial markets, hedge fund mgrs, banks, brokers,...etc can "legally" do and get away with it.
IMO this Bitcoin market will unravel in a similar fashion down the road. Be prepared my friends and wishing you all the best of luck.
The SEC has approved 11 bitcoin type ETFs today and will start trading tomorrow.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/spot-bitcoin-etfs-are-approved-by-sec-cleared-to-start-trading-thursday/ar-AA1mLSGT (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/spot-bitcoin-etfs-are-approved-by-sec-cleared-to-start-trading-thursday/ar-AA1mLSGT)
Looks like there will be a very large amount of interest in day trading the bitcoin ETF's..........but a small day trader is at the mercy of large, highly capitalized traders
and you can get really taken to the cleaners trying to compete against them.
I agree 8OR9. Today 1/15/24 Bitcoin is down to 42,600 from a few days ago at 46,900. However, it could just as easily be at 35k or 48k by the time you read this. IMO much of recent runup was due to likelihood for all the ETFs being approved. I think it was already baked into the price, thus, this mild drawback was somewhat expected. Its my opinion if one understands the volatility in Bitcoin(much like day trading and gambling), then one can still make money.
Its my belief that gambling in low SD games such as Bac, Pai Gow, Sic Bo,...etc is actually better. Due mainly that HE is easily known, small variance, and can't be changed nor can the dealer charge us more to place our bet(like our broker or broker co). Plus some of our bets(investments) will put the HE in our favor.
If I go to my broker and say I want to invest 100K. The broker immediately takes a fee of 2.75%(Great I now only have 97,250 invested. THEN, if the stock investment does well they will extract an additional >=3-7.5%. Plus any new investment contributed will also get charged this initial 2.75% fee.
This is why it is so important that we not play at casinos that charge an Ante "up front" win or lose. Casinos in Missouri actually charge a vig up front(W or L) on some games that can increase HE from ~~3% to almost 6%. don't Do That.
Bitcoin is so volatile and hard to value that it's closer to a lottery ticket than an investment, top economist David Rosenberg says
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-btc-crypto-sec-etf-david-rosenberg-gambling-investing-portfolio-2024-1 (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-btc-crypto-sec-etf-david-rosenberg-gambling-investing-portfolio-2024-1)
Continued Success,
Bitcoin is at $47k+ today and if things remain like this, within the end of the year 2024, it would surpass at least $80k.
Hi albalaha.
I agree it could continue the upward trajectory. Though my research back before the ETF introduction was that it could hit <= 50,000 prior to <= 4/24. I also feel it could someday hit the ~~85,000 range prior to plummeting once again. I'm most certainly not suggesting it has any intrinsic value. I'm just suggesting it could indeed go much higher and people can indeed make money with it. IF their timing is right.
It's my opinion the artificial manipulation is very clear. Personally, I do not currently own Bitcoin, though I have recently purchased two installments($13.01,$11.50) of BITI (Proshare Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF), which moves in the opposite direction of Bitcoin futures. Its my opinion we will see significant decline in Bitcoin <= it hits 50,000. If I owned Bitcoin I certainly wouldn't leave my positions in an unprotected state as it could move (5%--15%) overnight or within a few days.
The hype schemes from early buyers and large BTC holders is reminiscent of other ponzi-type schemes such as the Tulipmania: About the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp)
Some of the nonsensical headlines I saw this past week include:
Is Bitcoin the new gold? Cathie Wood and Fidelity
Investing in 'Gold'--Via Bitcoin--Is Cheaper Than Ever
Why Bitcoin won't reach $1,000,000 but you should buy anyway
Is Bitcoin the new digital gold
Continued Success,
Today, on 14th Feb 2024, Bitcoin is worth $51,544. All who were predicting its downfall and about it being useless or gimmic or having no intrisic value should learn a lesson now. I predicted this well in advance and the reasons for its future rise too. Just wait 5-6 months to see an all time high price, easily going over $80k.
This is the most well known book on "bubbles" with which I think most people are familiar...........written by Charles Mackay in 1841.
Should be required reading for anyone considering any type of investment.
Seems like the same things occur over and over again....history always repeats
https://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Popular-Delusions-Madness-Crowds/dp/1088149642/ref=sr_1_3?crid=1M1R8L7GA7PLF&keywords=Extraordinary+Pop+Delusion+%26+M&qid=1708037231&s=books&sprefix=extraordinary+pop+delusion+%26+m%2Cstripbooks%2C82&sr=1-3
Quote from: Albalaha on February 14, 2024, 04:33:33 PMToday, on 14th Feb 2024, Bitcoin is worth $51,544. All who were predicting its downfall and about it being useless or gimmic or having no intrisic value should learn a lesson now. I predicted this well in advance and the reasons for its future rise too. Just wait 5-6 months to see an all time high price, easily going over $80k.
So, are you buying now?
AD
Here is another well known and one of the most widely read books on trading, investment, bubbles, psychology etc etc etc
Written by "Edwin Lefevre" who was actually famed market trader Jessee Livermore from the early 1900's to the 1930's.
https://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Edwin-Lef%C3%A8vre/dp/0471770884/ref=pd_bxgy_img_d_sccl_1/147-3645017-0530732?pd_rd_w=YXZ24&content-id=amzn1.sym.615d9037-0d71-4715-8421-5695fbf26656&pf_rd_p=615d9037-0d71-4715-8421-5695fbf26656&pf_rd_r=HZ6AS7DYWGEYPE7SZGJ8&pd_rd_wg=KlFpj&pd_rd_r=b715959f-6ea8-43e5-9cc1-5840ed1045d1&pd_rd_i=0471770884&psc=1
Me above:"... Personally, I do not currently own Bitcoin, though I have recently purchased two installments($13.01,$11.50) of BITI (Proshare Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF), which moves in the opposite direction of Bitcoin futures. Its my opinion we..."
I added another tier on BITI (Proshare Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF) this past week at $10.40. I do not currently own any long postions in bitcoin.
Re: Bitcoin halving. Supposedly "halving" is part of the Bitcoin network's code to reduce inflationary pressure on the cryptocurrency and willcut the rewards in half for successfully mining a bitcoin block. this allegedly makes obtaining or mining new bitcoin much harder--has historically preceded bull runs.
Personally I do indeed perceive a "halfing" is about to occur. In the not too distant future.
https://petergrandich.com/bit-con-take-2-and-many-of-the-crypto-nuts-cult-members-with-it/ (https://petergrandich.com/bit-con-take-2-and-many-of-the-crypto-nuts-cult-members-with-it/)
I hope all currently holding bitcoin make a bundle (reminder, its always a good idea to take profits). Just like at the Bac table.
Continued Success,
I bought it in bits and pieces in various price bands over past 7 years and in good gain as on date. Hope to double it in near future.
"...Just wait 5-6 months to see an all time high price, easily going over $80k...."
I will revisit this thread in less than 5-6 months. The lessons to be learned could be better stated as: "Some lessons can't be taught."
I do admire the marketing of bitcoin et al cryptos as it will go down in history as a marketing masterpiece. The gold-colored coin with a capitol "B" along with a $ sign. Marketing genius. I wonder why they didn't choose a rock, stick, SIM card, computer mouse,..etc.
The losers are ill-informed buyers caught up in the spiral of greed. The result is a massive transfer of wealth from ordinary families to internet promoters. Opinion by Kungfubac.
Some of the early clues that crypto was on a hype train and not a sound financial investment:
a)The U.S. media was all for it and incessantly singing the praises and virtues of all things cryptos.
Financial gurus such as Michael Saylor, Max Kaiser, Jim Cramer,...etc plugged it every chance(until it tanked numerous times. Jim Cramer has for years had a financial show on CNBC, written books,...etc. His picks have been so horrendous for the past three(as in 30yrs) decades that a (Anti Jim Cramer) stock index has been formed, lol. The (SJIM). He still writes books and has a financial advice show.
b) It was first proclaimed to be a currency, now, a commodity, IMO a commodity at best.
c) It can't go up unless someone pays you more for it. The greater fools theory fits it best vs Ponzi scheme. A ponzi scheme runs out of new investors and the perpetrator runs out of funds to make any payouts. See Bernie Madoff.
We all could buy 10,000 items with it tomorrow and it wouldn't necessarily go up(or down). It does nothing and produces nothing. An interesting and theoretical concept, at best.
d) It helps to understand that a bitcoin has no value at all.
Since its inception promoters incessantly claim cryptocurrency is valuable as (1) a means of payment, (2) a store of value and/or (3) a thing in itself. None of these claims are true.
1. Means of Payment. Bitcoins are accepted almost nowhere vs proclamations of everywhere, and most cryptocurrencies nowhere at all. Even where accepted, a currency whose value can swing 10 percent or more in a single day is useless as a means of payment.
2. Store of Value. Extreme price volatility also makes bitcoin undesirable as a store of value. And the storehouses — the cryptocurrency trading exchanges — are far less reliable and trustworthy than ordinary banks and brokers.
3. Thing in Itself. A bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It only has value if people think other people will buy it for a higher price — the Greater Fool theory.
Cryptocurrency is best-suited for one use: Criminal activity. Because transactions can be anonymous — law enforcement cannot easily trace who buys and sells — its use is dominated by illegal endeavors.
Most heavy users of bitcoin are criminals, such as Silk Road and WannaCry ransomware. Too many bitcoin exchanges have experienced spectacular heists, such as NiceHash and Coincheck, or outright fraud, such as Mt. Gox and Bitfunder. Way too many Initial Coin Offerings are scams — 418 of the 902 ICOs in 2017 have already failed.
*Note--See FTX, See Sam Bankman-Fried.
Bitcoin transactions are sometimes promoted as instant and nearly free, but they're often relatively slow and expensive. It takes about an hour for a bitcoin transaction to be confirmed, and the bitcoin system is limited to five transactions per second. MasterCard can process 38,000 per second. Transferring $100 from one person to another costs about $6 using a cryptocurrency exchange, and well less than $1 using an electronic check.
Bitcoin is absurdly wasteful of natural resources. Because it is so compute-intensive, it takes as much electricity to create a single bitcoin — a process called "mining" — as it does to power an average American household for two years. If bitcoin were used for a large portion of the world's commerce (which won't happen), it would consume a very large portion of the world's electricity, diverting scarce power from useful purposes.
Not a peep from the climate folks and environmentalists.
I agree with most of the opinions above. Reference and kudos also go to B. Harris, former CEO of Intuit and founding CEO of PayPal and Personal Capital. He has written many fine articles regarding all things bitcoin.
Btc at 61,916 today 3/2/24. This is insane, however, it is fun to watch. Hopefully any bitcoiner forum members are taking a little profit.
As I have mentioned in previous posts I haven't owned any btc since it was approx 20K range. I would buy a little and wait until the volatility provided a >=7% quick profit(occasionally 13% or so). I would then buy precious metals bullion, This approach has worked great thus far as btc is so volatile that I typcially only had to watch a few days to unload the btc.
Of course once I had spent my btc I had to wait for it to regress/yoyo within a band width that I thought I had more potential for it to up,...etc. I've been waiting/waiting/waiting but its obviously on a run. So I haven't been able to rinse/repeat since $20K.
I actually have been adding additional BITI (Short btc futures) and tried to add another tier @ $8.35 this past week but didn't quite reach it as BITI currently sets at $8.56.
In a recent interview with Warren Buffet he suggested all the btc and especially the new ETF offerings on btc derivatives is simply a way for the financial markets to tap into the inherent gambling nature of human beings. I tend to agree.
IMO the financial investing world is benefitting tremendously from this new influx of billions into the new ETFs. Many investors perceive this is a way to invest into btc(though they don't actually own any btc). However, if btc continues to escalate they may indeed make money. Though what goes up must come down(eventually). Just my opinion.
*We were discussing btc at the bac tables a couple days ago and one of the Bac comrades suggested to the pit boss they should run a BTC ticker tape in table pit(Like the NY stock exchange runs on wall street). We could all watch from our tables and place bets (daily expiration) with fellow gamers. You could form your ticket within any bet(or payout: 1:1, 2:1,...etc) the two-member party agreed upon.
His idea was that we could design our own ticket(wager), go over to a kiosk and enter(similar to how we do sports betting at the Caesars portal in casinos). We would have to verify funds by front money, credit line, or electronically(chk account) so casino could confirm. We would print three tickets for each bettor, and one for the casino to hold. Then we both walk to the cashiers cage and attach $1 each per ticket(regardless of amount of wager). When the bet was settled that day the winner would go to the cage and show the ticket. The winner would get their $1 back, the casino keeps the losers' $1 as profit, and pays the winner.
An example: Im sitting at the table with forum member Albalaha. We look at the ticker scrolling over head and note BTC @ 61,900. I tell Albalaha I think BTC will hit 61,800 "before" it hits 62,000. We go to the Kiosk and enter the wager, print out 3 tickets, go over to cage and register with cage(along with our $1 each).
Another example of great ideas coming from the bac tables. :)
Any thoughts or ideas?
Continued success to all,
BTC is already at its all time high now and growing day by day. Those seeing at its volatility has missed the boat. It will see a sharp decline maybe by the end of 2024 but before that prices will go up only. Those stayed invested in btc and ethereum in the last 5 years are the biggest gainers in any form of investment possible.
It came over $69k, corrected a bit and still at good enough price today over $67k.
(https://i.postimg.cc/4dgWGdwC/image.png)
Those considering themselves smarter than Blackrock putting $3 Billions in it should introspect a bit more.
Bitcoin doesn't have any intrinsic value! OK. Does diamond have any? Value for anything is decided by demand and supply forces. Here, I quote the classic case of Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble?
The Dutch tulip bulb market bubble (or tulip mania) was a period in the Dutch Golden Age during which contract prices for some of the tulip bulbs reached extraordinarily high levels and then dramatically collapsed in February 1637; the rarest tulip bulbs traded for as much as six times the average person's annual salary at the height of the market.
Supply of Shiba Inu even after huge burning is in Quadrillions that exceeds even the assets of the universe taken together even if it reaches $1 in value. XRP is capped at 100 Billions hence could reach a value of even $50 in the long run. Bitcoin total supply as of present is a bit over 19 millions and rest could take 100 years to be mined. This clarifies that getting a value of $100k is realistic for a bitcoin.
It is a decentralized finance and hence has no government control and that makes it kind of permanent mode of transfer of value unless anything better comes and takes its place.
Bitcoin can not keep monopoly over the market hence Ethereum and some other prospective altcoins shall stay too.
(https://i.postimg.cc/SRMvbwB6/Screenshot-20240311-164936.png)
So, it is over $71k already and rising.
https://i.redd.it/p4pf2sohb3i41.gif (https://i.redd.it/p4pf2sohb3i41.gif)
Bitcoin at 62,900 today 3/22/24. By the time some of you on the other side of the globe read this it may be at 73k or 53k. As I've mentioned in past few weeks, I have been adding positions in BITI(Proshares SHORT Bitcoin Futures). So obviously it moves opposite BTC direction. That is if BTC goes up my BITI shares decrease, and vice versa. Today I was able to unravel 20% (1 of 5 tier levels) of total shares @ an approx. +13.5% ROI.
My motto: "The trend must end". Just like in gambling. :)
I'm still underwater on the initial tier purchases. I was optimistic in past couple weeks that I could add two additional tier levels if Bitcoin euphoria continued and BTC went to 85k levels. I actually hypothesized that once BTC went through 55k without much of a retracement that it could then move upward to 85k range before retracement <=30%.
*I saw a stat this week that new first-time BTC buyers in past six months had an avg entry price @ 54k. So, we may actually see a retracement to that level as a temporary basal level.
**I also saw several weeks ago when BTC was in 40k--50k range. It regressed -10--12k over a few days and that only 3% of BTC owners were responsible for the move.
__________________________________________________________
Poster above: "Those considering themselves smarter than Blackrock putting $3 Billions in it should introspect a bit more..."
The U.S. Government agreeing to grant approval for BlackRock's ETF is confirmation the U.S. Gov is wanting to have some control over the BTC market. I'm still not clear on exactly what the USgov plans with BTC market. I suspect BlackRock has been quietly buying BTC at very low prices in past 6-8 years(with US Gov knowledge and support).
Blackrock is currently the largest manager of U.S. Gov pension/retirement. BR manages approx. 12 trillion of U.S. Gov retirement pensions. If one has worked for the U.S. Gov it is likely that Blackrock manages your retirement directly or indirectly. I like them relative to most financial managers as they only charge 0.76% management fee. Plus, they will continue managing after one retires. Many funds mgrs. do not allow(without addendum fees or penalties). Which is really good. This fee % is often overlooked.
They also offer one of the lowest management fees for their recent ETF Vs other ETFs such as Grayscale. I suspect these upfront fees is one of the main reasons we are now seeing all these recent ETF offerings from numerous investment companies.
Re:ETFs
In two consecutive days last week Grayscale saw 640 million /400+Million of outflowing funds from their ETFs as recent investors unloaded. In two days, Grayscale lost 40% of their total Bitcoin holdings they had accumulated in past decade. Over the past week they saw over 12 billion $ in outflow.
*I'm starting to hear a few of the early and very large bitcoin advocates acknowledge that BTC is not suitable for a currency.
Best of luck to all bit coiners,
BTC will stay and get stronger. Those predicting that it will not last should learn from BlackRock, Elon Musk and other big whales who are into it for a reason. BTC should get more peaks and troughs this year giving us opportunities to enter and exit many times. Eythereum is also very good choice apart from BTC.
"...BTC will stay and get stronger... Those predicting that it will not last should learn from BlackRock.. ."
BTC at 69,500 today 4/1/24. I think its been up or down a couple K in past 24 hours.
I agree it will stay and be around for awhile(Until the next big thing). So are tulips and beanie babies. In fact, I gave my neighbor approx half of the tulips from one of our flower beds after they complemented them. I probably received them free 20years ago or maybe paid $3-5 at Lowes Home Supply. But yes indeed tulips are still around. So are beanie babies as I recently saw a bin of them for $3 each at a local antique store.
BTC is nothing like it was defined in its initial White Papers in 2008--2009. So just because they keep changing what it is and will become doesn't mean the folks 14 years ago were correct.
The tenets from its origin papers are easily refuted. So the BTC we are seeing today in its current state is largely due to great marketing and a cultish type following that is now coupled with a financial instrument.
BTC most resembles a commodity/ most certainly is not and will not be a currency unless it continues to evolve. Which then makes it NOT the bitcoin from its origin. Thus far I have not seen anything transacted with bitcoin(unless very recently). Items are transacted in dollars and then translated into bitcoins.
In fact, if we really needed a new way to do electronic payments doing so with Apple shares (ApplBit)would have been significantly more efficient. Far more people owned Apple stock and if a large enough audience bought (AppleBit) they would have incentives to also buy Apple products (Iphones, Ipads,..ets) to directly increase the value of AppleBit. If one owns BTC ones only hope is to sell it to someone else for more.
I recently observed a clip from a talk show host on CNBC and after the guest pointed out that BTC had drifted so far from its original tenets and had no characteristics of a currency. The CNBC host (without hesitation) immediately states: "well that's what makes BTC such a unique currency is that it has the ability to "evolve" like no other currency ever in our history". The guest almost burst out laughing but quickly tried not to scoff at the host/ the CNBC host even had to hide his own laugh as he knew what he just said was BS.
The original claims such as total anonymity, government can't ever see what you're doing, can't be hacked, well if u get hacked u should have put your holdings in a hot wallet--OR cold wallet, transactions are free, transactions are fast,....etc.
IMO the recent ETFs (and the fees collected by exchanges/investment Co such as Blackrock) will keep BTC alive for many years as they are making a killing on these new ETF fees. Today's stock market is much like a casino. IMO the casino gives one a less manipulated market if one plays low H.E. games such as Bac.
The following in part from Investopedia:
What Changed Since 2008 and 2009?
Bitcoin's lifespan contains an enormous history of ups and downs, both in terms of its dollar price as well as its development and support. For an idea that started as an anonymous research paper, its reputation and large market capitalization are astounding. To enjoy these accomplishments, Bitcoin had to endure several diversions from its original white paper:
Mining centralization:
Bitcoin's popularity drove its price up, which made mining very lucrative. Though the network is designed to be decentralized, those with enough money built large mining facilities in areas that subsidize electricity, thereby concentrating an important source of Bitcoin's power into the hands of a few.
Incentives:
Part six of the white paper outlines the rewards to miners, but even the largest are not immune to market forces. Mining Bitcoin gets progressively harder as the network grows, and so eventually, mining it en masse requires a lot of hardware, electricity, and cooling. This creates a breakeven point for mining, which is a factor that was not anticipated in the white paper.
Blockchain's size:
Part seven of the white paper is about keeping blockchain's size at a minimum, and so far, it's done a decent job. However, at around 558 GB as of March 23, 2024, it is a significant storage burden.
15
Blockchain.com. "Blockchain Size (MB)."
Privacy:
Satoshi illustrates his vision for private transactions in part 10, but Bitcoin is now only private for those who take great caution to ensure their anonymity. Most Bitcoin is now traded between centralized exchanges that require identification (and occasionally bank account verification), so it is not difficult to trace to whom it belongs or where it is going. Bitcoin's speculation-fueled popularity put it in the spotlight of government and central banks long ago. Though people understand institutional finance cannot ever destroy Bitcoin entirely, at this point, it is as much a part of Bitcoin as regular users are.
Speed and Fees:
Bitcoin's core development team has made changes to its code over time to address problems with transaction speeds and costs. They have altered the size of blocks being verified and opened up pathways for integration with off-chain solutions like the Lightning Network. Whether these side chains or second-layer solutions will pay off in the long run remains to be seen.
Just my quick thoughts/opinions as I skim the forum late at night.
More later/ Best of luck to all bitcoiners,
Among all the cryptos at an ATH in 2021, only BTC touched a next level ATH. Halving is closer and so is $80K level.
BTC @ 71,500 today 4824.
I agree Alb we may see <=80K in near future. After it held above low 50s I projected we could potentially see <=85-86k as an apex. After all the halving hype there will be a retreat toward a mild basil near 50K IMO. We could possibly see a retraction >=30%.
There are so few holders of btc at large quantities the price can and will fluctuate with great volatility as the large holders see fit.
*Another concern is even if the small holders hedge their bets with inverse ETFs such as (BITI), btc is traded 24-7 and BITI as well as most markets (In USA) are only open 8am--4pm. So just a few BTC holders can really alter the markets at night or weekend.
Good luck to all bit coiners/remember to take some profits or at least get your cost basis +3% out. Then let it ride if you desire as thou shalt see high volatility in coming month.
Just another investing tip from your Uncle Kung :nod:
Continued Success To All,