All
Since I have four computers and one open, I decided to do a test on a system. At this point I cannot name or describe the system. It is only part mine and the fellow who "owns" the other part will not part with it.
Here are the first week's results. I am using the "Outside D'Alembert" with the ExcelBot. I either win ten nickels or I lose ten nickels. Each win lowers the bet, the bankroll and the loss limit. Each loss raises all three. Example: My bet is 3, my bankroll is 30 and my stop loss is 30. I go up three on a loss and down three on a win. For four or five, just change the "3" to whatever you wish.
My goal is to test the limits of this idea over a month or so or until I give up on it. If I win 1,000 fake Euro, not nickels, I will go for real money. I must see where the draw downs take me and decide if I would REALLY go there!! Would I be down 200 Euro and continue? That's the question.
The ExcelBot is the perfect testing tool. Whether I win or not, the bot is excellent. Only my sheet will determine the outcome.
If you look at my sheet you will see I am up 137 Fake Euro. That's 2,740 units since units are nickels. Most of this is NOT due to reducing the bet to level 1, but due to the "Hiccup Effect" as I have named it. I'll explain that again if anyone wants.
So here we go. Win, lose or get drunk---you will know the truth!
Samster
Sam. Very nice. Two questions if I may. What is cut-off? And what is hicup effect.
Pockets
"Cut off" means Bet Voyager or something cut me off and I had to re-start the bot. I just continue on from where I was.
The "Hiccup" effect is when you are using a D'Alembert and you go up and win and down and lose many times in a row. Here is the way it shakes out. (Bet 1 and lose. Bet 2 and win) (Bet 1 and lose. Bet 2 and win) (Bet 1 and lose. Bet 2 and win). Each one of those bets within the parenthesis will net you one unit. So for this little batch of hiccups, you would gain 3 units and still be at level 1 in your progression.
The D'Alembert merely says if you lose, go up one unit and if you win that bet, go down one unit.
Sam
Thanks for the time Sam.
Just had a question to ask you.
When would you think one should consider they are deep into the hole when playing D'alembert?
Is it between 15th and 20th level?
The reason I ask is I am seeing that the recovery is very slow when we get higher and higher the progression level.
As per the hiccup effect if we are at level 1 and 2, then every lose and win bet we gain 1, which will reset any losses quickly.
But if we are at level 9 and 10, every winning bet is giving as 1 unit, but a losing bet takes 10 times of that win.
This is why I wanted to know from your experience till when would you consider safe to continue on the D'alembert steps.
Other question that I had was, have you ever considered a percentage increase instead of a fixed 1 unit increase and decrease.
For example, after a losing bet we increase 25% of the unit size.
So, if am playing 1$ units, if I lose my next bet would be 1.25$, I lose this, my next bet is 1.6$ and so on.
Quote from: Pockets on October 24, 2013, 10:47:42 AM
Other question that I had was, have you ever considered a percentage increase instead of a fixed 1 unit increase and decrease. For example, after a losing bet we increase 25% of the unit size. So, if am playing 1$ units, if I lose my next bet would be 1.25$, I lose this, my next bet is 1.6$ and so on.
This is the way to go :nod:
Short demonstration in the attach shows power of this.
When I represented this some time ago to our dear GreatGrampa, he gave very interesting answer.
"Great Drazen. Yes, % based increments is the way to go. During my days at Cammegh, after testing over millions and millions of spins we figured out that 25% is the optimum number that will provide you wins on a consistent basis in ECs. That number goes down to 12% for dozens and columns. But playing 25% will require you to keep 20 times the lowest unit instead of 10 times as you are doing now. So even 20% is alright... "Cheers
Drazen
Very nice Drazen. Do you have experience in playing it? How do you think it adds up? Do you just go on increasing or do you have any reset points. What is the worst drawdown you faced if you play this.
I know lots of questions. But I am keen to understand how this performs as I have never read such progression anywhere.
For me it works just fine.
I do increase, but at certain points I stop and use higher chip to make up the losses.
I would like to keep that points for myself, but that actually depends on the bet slection of each to discover.
Practice, practice, practice ;)
Drazen
Pockets
The "Hiccup Effect" pays the same whether you're at level 1-2 or at 10-11 or wherever.
I set the bot like this: I am at .05. I either win .50 or I lose .50. That is my first bet. If I lose, then my D'Alembert cannot go very high. Maybe 5? I've never checked it out. But say I lose. I then set the bot for "Basebet = 2" Now I am shooting for the same win, but double the bet and win/loss ratio. Still my D' can't go very high or the bot will cut off and go to "Basebet = 3"
It may not be the best way in the world to bet; the 25% surely could be better. If GG and Drazen recommend it, I'm sure it is. But the bot won't do that. I asked Stef for a D'Alembert and I got one.
Lastly, if your bet goes too high, I feel the selection process is poor.
We shall see. Right now the thing is in a downturn. I'll have to see where the bankroll is.
Sam
QuoteI have never read such progression anywhere
Because anything rigid will eventually break!
Quotebut that actually depends on the bet slection of each to discover.
Practice, practice, practice
Personally I still don't have a set BS, but the practice, practice, practice is a perfect explanation, forget strict BS and totally (can't stress this enough) totally forget a regimental progression, they do not work every time you hit the game, never have and IMO never will, YOU need to decide when to up the chips depending on what you see happening at any given point in the game.
Starting a new recording method, not a new test.
Sam
PDF1 came out ok but PDF2 hmmm....you know how hard it is to flip my screen. Kinda brings to mind the joke about the secretary ... uses liquid paper ( white out ) on her screen to correct her documents.
B
Thanks, Buff One
No idea how that happened. Too much Oolong tea??
Sam
This test is going very well........at present!! I rarely go to a $30 unit mini-bank. I am up almost 400 play unit. 600 to go...
Hello
At the present time, I am up 655 units on this test. All is going very, very well. Perhaps too well.
In the last 60 trots, I have not gone above 3 in the progression. In the entire test 6 is the highest I've gone and only twice. You can't imagine how good that is. At this time my bankroll would need to be 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 = 210 Euro at a .10 bet. I can do that!!
As far as I'm concerned, this will be a definitive test of whether BV is fair or not. I have notes on every trot. There is no reason why I should see a marked difference when I start to play for real money.
Is the Cafe empty?? Am I talking to the walls??
TwoCat
i think you will note the difference when you start real...good luck :thumbsup:
maestro
Thank you for that!
Do you feel BV will cheat?
In my mind, that is the only way it could be different.
Your opinions, please.
Sam
do not know Sam shall we call it a cheat or what but if you play within certain chip value is ok as soon as you up chip value does not like it...just me opinion..have a go see what happens :thumbsup:
Just to reassure you the cafe is not empty...LOL (Over 500 views as I write this)
So you're testing in demo mode, it seems.
It's been noted several times elsewhere that demos use a different software algorithm to the software used for playing for money.
In other words, players have noted they win easily (if that's the right word) when in demo mode, but the minute they switch to real money mode the wheels start to fall off.
So many have observed this phenomenon that it can't just be pooh-poohed and written off as coincidence.
The 64k question: is BV into that sort of duplicity?
I guess you're about to find out. [Better go easy with that retirement money!! ;) ]
Now let's all watch this space...
Quote from: esoito on October 30, 2013, 10:49:11 PM
It's been noted several times elsewhere that demos use a different software algorithm to the software used for playing for money.
In other words, players have noted they win easily (if that's the right word) when in demo mode, but the minute they switch to real money mode the wheels start to fall off.
So many have observed this phenomenon that it can't just be pooh-poohed and written off as coincidence.
The 64k question: is BV into that sort of duplicity?
It may be that BV throw out what could be considered 'user-friendly' numbers in demo mode.
Now who is to say they can't throw out 'unfriendly' strings of 60 spins which will defeat a lot of the 'garden variety' types of progressions out there.
The randomness control can work perfectly....but that does not mean it is still not just a fancy gimmick.
These online casinos have been operating for years. Who is to say they have not done research into producing what you could define as psuedo random numbers which can adapt to certain playing styles.
esoito
That is the goal: to see if things change with real money.
People are different when playing with real money. Robots are not. I will faithfully set the bot as I have with play money. Then we shall see.
My method of selection and money management would be very difficult for a casino to ferret out as it changes constantly depending on what just happened. Not saying they could not do it, but I doubt if it's worth it.
Bally
I can only get strings of 10, not 60. For the numbers to be "user friendly", they would have to know what numbers I need. Not easy...
Sam
Good People
I have attached a sheet for your consideration. Please take special note of the following...................
The first orange you find is the highest point before the lowest point. The two red dots are the lowest before recovery. This draw down was 225 units be they dollars or Euros. The second orange you find is where it is totally recovered to the previous high.
Here is the most interesting thing: Not that when I went "out", I had just finished level 4 in the betting. No need to go to three or two as I was whole. I reset to 1 and started over. The reason I need not go to three or two is the "hiccup factor". It it mathematically provable and sound.
So now my test is at a 710 unit win with a 255 unit draw down.
Comments?
Rotten eggs? Perhaps a rum and coke with a twist of lime for my efforts???
Samster
All
I am in a horrible rut. I just ran 51 trots and made 81.20. I can't seem to get on a winning streak like I was in the beginning. But I only have around 200 units to go to make my 1,000 profit.
So, it's still looking good. I would be willing to lay 500 Euro on the line if it makes 1,000 with no draw down over 500 units.
Sam
And that's surely the point at which you should STOP.
Take a break.
And come back to it another day.
You so often seem let yourself get over-tired, over-stressed, so you lose concentration. And then both impatience and errors take over.
(From an interested an onlooker's perspective, that is. You might not agree...LOLOL)
The RFH got a lot worse. In my next 11 trots, I went down 600 units. This is not looking good. I will pause a day or so and resume.
Sam
Thanks, esoito.
[Edit: Lucky it's still only play money!]
I have not totally abandoned this test; I have change the parameters and continue to test.
Later
Sam