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Topics - Albalaha

#1

I start with a disclaimer first: " Pi is NOT free money. It is a long-term project whose success depends on the collective contributions of its members. Pi is dedicated to helping everyday people participate in a utilities-based ecosystem on blockchain fueled by a cryptocurrency without the need for traditional intermediaries. If you are looking for quick money, look elsewhere."
             
      let me introduce you an upcoming crypto that you can get for free and mine on your mobile phone or PC. This is Pi network, a reform  where you earn from crypto technology  without investing a penny, at any point of time. Although it has not been listed on any major exchange yet, it is trading near $50 already on Bitmart and some other exchanges. Joining under my username " sumiteshwar" you can get one PI for free and u can mine one PI in 100 hours now, effortlessly on your mobile phone. With added team of miners joining under your invitation, you mining speed could go manifold.
 Pi is a new digital currency developed by Stanford University PhD, with over 47 million members worldwide. To claim your Pi, follow this link https://minepi.com/sumiteshwar and use my username (sumiteshwar) as your invitation code.
 Come in my group and I will be guiding you always on all tips, tricks and updates. This may go listed any moment so do not miss the opportunity of getting the initial PI for free and great mining speed available now.

Starting from a mining speed of 1.6 Pi/Hr, through halving now the speed is 0.001 Pi/Hr. which will further reduce by halving as Bitcoin did with its halving to keep the value at a graceful level.

  I have seen the advent of Bitcoin and did not take that seriously. I was offered 5000 Bitcoins in early days in lieu of a system of mine worth $200 then. Pi might not ever become as precious as a Bitcoin and probably no coin will ever touch that but its growing prelaunch acceptance is unprecedented. Let's take a bet in it, for free. With 1- 2 minutes daily invested in it could earn for us a substantial amount in the future.

More later.....

Update: PI is being accepted now to buy USDT through P2P on Binance the leading platform for crypto trading.
#2
Started with name XRB, it started from the price of $0.01 in the year 2015 and remained almost same till mid 2017. Thereafter it suddenly surged to $0.18. Then it reached $1 and $10 marks, By the end of 2017, it was at $21. Very few cryptos with such price tags could rise so much. It reached its all time high of $42 in Jan 2018. Later it went down to $11 and got rebranded as Nano. It kept rolling down and reached as low as $0.26. In 2021, it again rose to as high as $19 to tumble down in below $1. Then it again rose to $2 and again it tumbled down to a very low figure. Atleast once in a month, it surges at once to 20-40% and then tumbles back near $0.60. It has a limited supply of a few hundred millions so it could easily rise to $10 again.
   Any idea or experience with this crypto?
#3
This method could be very satisfying and ultra rewarding.
Hi folks,
Those who love to bet straight ups and get thrilled with winning piles of chips would love to hear this idea.
This takes care of the extreme variance management in the best possible manner.
We all know the law of third that tells us that in a cycle of 37 spins, we have about 12 numbers that do not hit even once. At times it takes even upto 45 spins where only 25 numbers hit and 12 numbers still remain sleeper. Just imagine if we randomly pick any set of numbers, it could drag us for 30-45 spins without getting any single hit. If we take 12 numbers together, even millions of chips won't help in getting net win in one hit. This could happen any day. Got shocked?

Now, we can take benefit of this phenomenon than being aggrived from it. We start tracking a session till when only 12 numbers remain unhit. As I said, it could happen in a window of 30-45 spins, anywhere. When this happens, we note down all those 12 unhit numbers. About 6-9 of them will surely hit in the next cycle of 37 spins. Some of them, will hit only once while others may hit twice, thrice or even more. Some of the numbers of those 12 chosen might not hit even in 100-200 spins and the worst number could go unhit for as far as 500 spins or even worse, we never know.

What we will bet upon?
When we track the last unhit 12 numbers, we do not bet them yet. Let them hit first. When the first one hits, we start to bet that, when second one hits, we bet both two of them, similarly, we will add third and fourth number too, after they hit once but when the fifth number opens, we remove the farthest of our bet and bet current four straight up numbers only.  As we all know that a perfect rotation of numbers is impossible, some of them will hit much more and frequently while other will remain laggard. With a mild progression, we are set to get good cluster of wins. There is one condition of betting those four numbers, they should have hit at least once in the last 37 spins. If only three of them did that (in extreme cases) we will bet only three. Same way, we might get to bet only two or one or even none.

I would appreciate, if anybody needs any clarifications.
#4
Albalaha's Exclusive / Two straight up numbers betting
August 06, 2023, 09:11:17 AM
I have been playing this for a few months with remarkable success.
How to choose numbers to bet?
Check current statistics of last 37 spins played. Pick a set of 7 consecutive numbers on wheel like 12,35,3,26,0,32,15, that won the least taken as a whole. For instance, if in the last 37 spins, only 3, 12,0 shown once and 15 came twice, you may opt to bet that set numbers only.

Which two numbers will be bet?
Only the latest two numbers if they did hit within last 37 spins, if only 1 did hit in the last 37 spins, only 1 number will be bet upon, if none did, none will be bet.

This betselection works on the principal that not all inside numbers come equally and in a perfect rotation. A few numbers will hit 4-5 times while another from your proposed bet numbers might not hit even once.

Benefits:
1. No betting on numbers not hitting for hundreds of times.
2. Takes advantage of any one or two of the numbers getting too hot.


downsides:
1. As any other bet, it will get all kinds of variances.
2. When all numbers remain active in your bet, you can miss some wins.


Progression:
 Increase bet once after 15 spins and no win and thereafter on every win.
Sooner or later, you will most likely get clustered wins and you move out having hundreds of winning chips.
#5
I have observed this for too long and hence sharing this with you. This is not backed by any statistical observation or upon any principal of probability but playing the weakest dozen ( a dozen which is hitting at 5/20 or even worse) looks very bad to me. That usually happens when 3-4 numbers of a dozen remains sleeper and rest of the numbers remain either average or below average. Even if a single number of that dozen is hot, it can not help much by itself.
        We all know that a single dozen could remain sleeper for even 40 spins and could reach hit rate of even 6/60, trying that is not wise. Maybe it helps someone playing safer.
#6
I asked this to admin and vls now can any of you answer me as to where is my highlighted section?
#7
Albalaha's Exclusive / cryptocurrency and me
November 05, 2021, 09:47:29 AM
I heard about bitcoin while it was hardly a year old and had miniscule value. Once I was offered 5000 bitcoins in return of one of my system that I denied because I had no means to put in any casino back then nor could I get it cashed in India, that time. Then I heard of it, 5-6 years thereafter while it reached $1,000. I thought oh, had I taken 5,000 bitcoins back then and kept as investment I would have had $5 millions. Anyways, I had a misconception that I can't buy bitcoin in fractions and I thought it has already saturated too. By the time bitcoin reached $50k, I bought ripple for about $3. It started sinking then and bitcoin started crashing daily too. I thought it is over now. I sold ripples at little loss correctly as it went as bad as few cents too.
            Now for a year or so, it again going great. I have bitcoin, ripple, doe, cardano, shiba inu, etc, eth and a few more and I can see good growth too. Shiba Inu, in particular has outdone bitcoin too. Any of you are into crypto? Any predictions?
#8
Hey Friends,
    Since my first stint of trying roulette online to my casino trips, there has been occasions where I made huge bets on 1 number to EC bets and also in baccarat. No, I was not playing Martingale. It was a hybrid progression that pushed in little tricky times of below average hits, betting least in the worst of times and pushing bets when it appears to be doing great. Many times, it rose to the table limits and it was pretty exciting in a real casino. I have once won max pay allowed on a single number and win was huge. I did it many times on dozens and EC bets too. Have you ever done this?
#9
Well, I m not into writing pages long posts but this debate is one of the hottest debates for gamblers. Many assert that as the name suggests itself a positive progression like Parlay is the way to play. It ensures big wins and loses least in the worst times. Looks impressive, isn't it?
            Problem area with a positive progression is twofold:
1. It either requires more wins than losses or clumping wins or both
2. You can't guess when more wins than losses or clumping wins will occur.

Normally, with every game having house edge, getting more wins than losses or getting clumping wins when you are betting for it could be as much difficult as trying to win with a ten steps martingale. You might win till you lose.
  Rather, negative progressions are based upon more realistic premise. Even Martingale or Labouchere are mathematically guaranteed to win(irrespective of how many chips they might need) but there is not even a single positive progression known to win in the long run simulations.
Mostly believers of trends or patterns believe in positive progressions too. They have a gut feeling(however they can't illustrate them ever) that they can identify patches where they can ride on winning streaks and come home winner daily.
     Being real,  in an EC bet, at worst times, getting a WW(two consecutive wins) could drag upto 60 trials. In no manner, you can predict anything in a random game and daydreaming of being safe and keep winning with any positive progression alone is childish.
       Negative progression might not be as sharp or dangerous as a martingale or labouchere. There could be many variants which could safely work to win avoiding big losses and winning despite lesser wins than losses both.
      Positive progressions will help only if someone can ensure more wins than losses which is impossible in a random game.

More later...........
#10
Albalaha's Exclusive / When to bet
May 30, 2021, 06:52:14 AM
In an EC bet, including baccarat, roulette, craps or any other game, we can not get benefit by picking any bet (although we can opt more harm by choosing some bets with more house edge like "Tie" bet in baccarat) but with a statistical point of view, 


Probability to win in
1st Attempt= 50%
2nd attempt=25%
3rd Attempt=12.25%
and so on.
               If you utilize this long run probability, you can decide when should you bet and what should you expect statistically. If you think of short run session play, you might see variance but this is set in stone in the long run. This also helps in configuring your own "extreme variance management".

More later>>>>>>>>
#11
I am onto something that has never been done so far. To the best of my knowledge only Martingale, Labouchere and Fibonacci can beat any session sooner or later. Unfortunately, to do so, they might need millions of chips starting from 1 unit and yet not capable to win huge. I have devised a purely mathematical way to beat the game which might seek only a few thousands chips, in the worst of the worst possible sessions.
             So far, I have tested all the real data I had of roulette and baccarat for EC betting and could beat them all finally. Can any of you help me getting the worst 1000 spins/hands EC real data? I would be obliged if I get the source from where the data was taken. I want to fully utilize my free timing during the pandemic to do the not doable thing and I believe I m close.
#12
   Sequential probability is the probability of happening or non happening of a sequence/series of result. Probability of getting an  LL and an LLLLLLL can not be same. However, it should not be confused with gamblers' fallacy. If we bet only after LLLLL, we still can get LLLLLLL as easily as anybody can get LL but still probability to have a series of LLLLLLL will be roughly 1/128 and an LLLLLLL can not compete with LL in numbers of occurrence.

               How can we use it in gambling WITHOUT BEING FALLACIOUS?
There can be many ways including two techniques that I use:

1)IF WE TARGET EVERY LLL TO NOT TO BECOME LLL LL IN AN EC BET.
     For example, if we see BBB in baccarat, we can try Player upto two times to get a win, we are most likely to get good number of wins; or

2) we can use it in inverse form betting only first two attempts and not in subsequent losses.

Both ways will help us in Extreme Variance management. Both carry their drawbacks too but if we see the probable horror sessions, this can help a lot.

Remember: No way of picking way will get you an edge in a random game. You can't win flat with it.

More later..........
#13
Albalaha's Exclusive / Personal mentoring offer
May 15, 2021, 04:40:22 AM
In the times of COVID, I am free and not moving around usually. IF any fellow member who knows me wants my help to improve his skills and chances to come home winner from most of their casino visits/online sessions, feel free writing me on my email. Here in this forum too, I will be glad to assist to the best of my capacity. I can explain as to why their choice of method or betselection can not yield long term gains and how can they better. I wonder there are not much curiosity left with players. This resulted into lesser brainstorming ideas and discussions, not only on this forum but everywhere else.
          Those who are themselves playing for long with considerable bankroll on a very regular basis, I can offer a personalized mentoring for a fee. I am not here to promote gambling. I know it is a risky venture even if done with all the skills so those having money for their groceries or bills just enjoy gambling in "Fun mode" only and satiate their desires of gambling with that only. There could be not just one but many successful approaches to win or to be ahead in profit. Even after developing various approaches, I keep on working daily 2-3 hours in bettering my chances by studying, testing, tweaking new brainstorming ideas. I can promise to better your skills, your knowledge unless you have a better knowledge and skills than me.
Be healthier, be wealthier.
#14
Albalaha's Exclusive / +50 OR -100?
May 10, 2021, 11:22:33 AM
I was doing final tests of my latest methodology to see whether I get +50 or -100 first in some below average annoying sessions.
Got +53 in this session of 48 wins vs 64 losses, max DD= -16, max bet= 8 units.


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#15
I have got a basic tracker of my recent MM that wins good and average sessions easily and with same methodology, I can sustain very worst cases too, playing all over with a fixed EC bet. This tracker of mine is coded in VB hence need to input the string of L(losses) and W(wins) manually, one by one. Please have a look at these sessions and let me know if you can handle such massive variance against you with any MM of yours? Over smart guys who will come up with I will play it Opposite or anything alike, need not comment. Whichever way they can pick bet could get such losses. Only thing one can do is to stop at a particular loss. If any of you can let us know any MM approach that can beat all these sessions within 500 chips bankroll, I would consider that person to be a legend.

Session #1:          losses: 140, wins: 96, SD: over 2.5 SD below mean overall

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#16
Fellow members,
               I have done a hell lot of experiments on various styles of playing. Be it betselection (specially on inside bets of roulette) or money management or extreme variance management techniques. Studied whatever I could find online for over one and half decades. Got help of mathematicians and programmers.
          Recently, I was working on a trigger based approach but I finally got the gist of being successful in gambling. It is only about thinking about the long run. Once you are prepared for that with all possible good, bad, great, worst, average patches coming randomly, you are unbeatable. Playing to conclude a small session is doable too but not necessary. Even if we get half of the edge that casinos has, we are done with being profitable.
            I believe I have accomplished something like that but only time (and my future regular earnings) will tell how correct I was in this conclusion.
       I wish all of you the same.
#17
How many of you go for a trigger to start bet? Do you think it useful/helpful?
In my humble opinion and observation, it doesn't change probability further but it could be utilized to ward off the worst possible
probabilities and if we take multiple triggers together and their net total impact, I found it helpful logically and probability wise too. We should not expect any in built advantage with any trigger or flat bet win with it.

       Let me illustrate as to how I perceive it can be used.
Say, I m looking for a trigger of 1SD or worse to cool off and then I bet for the same length, expecting better.
LLLLLLLLLLWLLLLWLW , 15 LOSSES AND ONLY 3 WINS.
If I bet upto 18 more decisions hereafter, I might get a similar stretch ahead but very few times. Mostly, I will get something like 9:9 or 7:11 or 8:10 win:loss ratio. Getting LLLLLLLLLLWLLLLWLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLWLW is not impossible but definitely rare.

Such triggers might not be good for playing for +1 but excellent for my millionaire's plan where I want to play for 80-90% winning sessions, with 50-100 units' gain or loss.

What do you say on this?
#18
I have a query for fellow members:
          Which one is better?

1. A method that always gets +1 in the long run and earns averagely in average sessions; or

2. A method that either wins 50 units minimum or loses 100 units maximum with 90% probability to finish with a win.
#19
Hey friends,
             I am very excited to start my dream project which I named: "millionaire's plan"
It will be a betting plan to earn huge when game finally stops. The game could take 10 hands to upto 1000 hands/trials to conclude but it will not be to win only 1 unit but the maximum possible. Playing for the long run doesn't mean playing days and nights at a stretch.

To do this perfectly, I need a table limit of 1-1000 to be safest and surest but I would try to finalize it in a table limit of 1-100 too.
        I have broad outlines of the system ready. Let's see if it finally concludes as I desire.
Please wish me all the best.
Regards.

P.S.: anybody ever tried to earn as huge with any realistic plan? I got excited to read the book, "13 at the bank" but that was based on unrealistic premises which could be tested to be a failure easily via simulations.
#20
Albalaha's Exclusive / Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials
February 23, 2021, 05:04:06 AM
I thought of never writing back on any of the forums but finally decided to give my inputs on the most controversial topic on gambling. Can there be a way to beat the game? Answer is Yes but it is subject to certain issues:
1. House edge should not be excessive. Baccarat is the best bet, in my humble opinion. Even European roulette/French roulette doable.

2. Betselection doesn't matter, be it static or dynamic, all has the same yield and expectancy in the long run as provided by probabilities they carry and the house edge they bear.

3. Bet limit on EC bet should be atleast 1-100. Although one seldom need to bet over 10 units.

4. A net win could be achieved even in the very first bet but we should always expect to win in the long run and play accordingly. In an EC bet, as per my own estimates and researches, even the worst of the worst could be overcome and a net win could be achieved within 15,000 trials.

5. Stay away from all foolish money managements available for centuries. They are meant to handle only one type of variance. Remember, increasing or decreasing bet alone doesn't make you winner. There are more to it to become an HG.

6. Stop loss doesn't help. One should rather be able to totally forget abnormal losses and should understand that they are part and parcel of the game.

7. Increasing bet from 1 to 2 is 100% increase in the bet while 2 to 3 is only 50% and so on even after increasing bet we keep losing the efficacy needed. This should be kept in mind and answered correctly.

More later..............

#21
Who among us plays live dealer baccarat on a daily basis? I am looking for a team of real players( even one will do) who has experience online and prefers live dealer baccarat. Please name the casinos where you play(PM me if you do not prefer to disclose that openly). Had it been my choice, I would have asked Victor, Lungyeh, asymbac and even Alrelax (I know he hates online gaming) to make a dream team. Only known members may approach me. This forum has been very silent for long. Let's make some noise.
#22
          Unlike stock market or sports gambling where betselection/pick is much more important than anything else, a casino game is far more balanced. It has a fixed house edge, fix payouts and fix probability.
        Everybody knows of the house edge that lies in a calculation done to favor the casino with offering a lesser payout than the odds. This is done to ensure losses in the long run on certain premises. If I play simple coin flipping with a friend of mine with a condition to pay him a profit of 0.95 for a bet of 1.00 and to take his 1.00 when he loses, given enough trials he will lose. If I do this to 100s of my friends I will have to go rich gradually, even if a few friends somehow manage to get a net win from me. Say they win and lose equal number of times, I will be winning 0.025 for every 1 unit bet placed, averagely. Hence, if a player has 100 units with him, he should lose it all by 4000th bet. It is also known as Average Daily Theoretical loss, also known as ADT, theoretical loss, or "theo" for short. The theoretical loss is the amount of money a player is expected to lose based on the long run statistical advantage the casino has on the particular game being played.
               Now my question.
              Have you ever seen someone playing with 100 chips and taking 4000 bets to lose that all? Usually people do not play flat or even if they do, they run out at losing a considerable sum in bad streak or winning a considerable sum in good streak. An average player plays not more than 100 trials in a real casino, in any given day and concludes his wins/losses of the day. This is about clever players. Rookies come, buy and lose  all before leaving for home. If they buy 100 units, do they take 4000 bets to lose that? Never.
         They plan a game for short run, either use multiple bets together(like side bets in baccarat or inside bets on roulette) to lose faster in a little bad streak and in avenging those losses lose the rest even faster, or they use silly progressions to win back faster and ultimately lose all.

More later............

#23
Yes!!!
        I am onto something that could be termed as a Holy Grail for casino gambling for games like roulette, baccarat or any other game with fixed odds and payouts and slight house edge. I started to test it with the worst reported cases of EC in roulette and baccarat. Then I created a few hypothetical cases with 2SD, 3SD, 4SD and 5SD or even worse going below mean, for as long as 1700 continuous trials. I have beaten all, so far. I won't say that there will be no session where I would need to surrender but even the worst would not take away more than 300 chips, in total.
          In manual testings, it took hours and even days of mine to compute a tough session but now I have a fully coded tracker(Still working to better it a bit, if possible), so I can evaluate any session in a few seconds.
  Remember: It doesn't win the worst session while it is still worst but in long run when things go closer to mean by a predefined approach that I can play in all over betting and can swiftly win any average or below average session.
             I have reasons to believe that I finally have something that beats the randomness delivering extreme variance alongwith the house edge. Please provide me any EC w/l string from real sessions that should make me surrender with -300 finally.
#24
I have been hearing that mathematics tells us that casino games with house edge/negative expectations are unbeatable. I asked many that which book of mathematics says so, none answered so far. I am not any scholar of mathematics but Math was a subject of mine till 12th class. I read algebra, geometry, trigonometry, calculus, probability, statistics and basic arithmetic but never heard of any such concept in text books, at least. Fortunately or unfortunately our schools do not teach us casino odds or gambling theories.
      Is the concept of games being unbeatable a theory or a law?
Wikipedia says that: Online slot games often have a published Return to Player (RTP) percentage that determines the theoretical house edge. Some software developers choose to publish the RTP of their slot games while others do not. Despite the set theoretical RTP, almost any outcome is possible in the short term.
It means one can win, even in slots.
Mathematically, only one thing is certain about the casino games(with house edge or negative expectations) that if you keep betting 1 unit consistently on any bet, you can not win, in the long run due to that. I admit and accept this as pure maths.
   Can anybody enlighten me with mathematical concepts that I am unaware of that confirms that a gambler has to lose in a casino game in the long run, whatever he choose to bet or howsoever he bets?
#25
Albalaha's Exclusive / An eyeopener challenge and query
January 28, 2020, 04:55:53 AM
Variance is the biggest killer in a random game as roulette or baccarat. Variance is momentary and a huge one can not last too long. Gradually RTM will bring in better patches and eventually in a very long stride, it will all look very close to the mathematically expected value.
           Take a case of an EC bet like Player in Baccarat. We get only 60 hits in 200 attempts. It is -5.27 SD and a kind of even below the virtual limits but as nothing is impossible and only remote, it happened while we played it. Later, in subsequent 400 more trials say we get 186 more hits of our bet Player. It is still at -3.76 SD in 600 trials and there is no balancing win or even any long stretch of successive wins to exploit somehow.

         Do we have any strategy that can win even in such cases after 600th trial even 1 unit Or we only have wishful thinking that such things could never happen to us. Even if we do not stand to win even after 600th trial here, how many will get bearable losses that could be recovered ahead easily?