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Revisiting Triggers

Started by alrelax, September 05, 2022, 08:00:24 PM

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alrelax

Everyone seems to be looking for a trigger.

At the tables.  Within the forums.  When talking with other players. Right or wrong?  Good or bad?  Safe or dangerous?

What is the trigger?
When will the trigger appear?
How long will a trigger last?
Is the trigger truly redundant/repetitive?

I believe I have witnessed them all at real B & M casinos. As well, I have read about countless ones on various forums  and other gaming related Internet sites. Streaks, chops, doubles, triples, four IARs, ones-twos-threes-threes-twos-ones, tie cuts, tie sticks, certain third card numbers will cause the next hand to win or lose, naturals stick or cut, and many many many more.

And what most people do playing baccarat is, engage in a trigger belief that certain events will cause the following hand to be a winner because of what has just occurred. FYI, in absolute statistical reality that will occur less then a 50-50 chance, in fact a lot less.

It works while it is presently appearing and a greater amount of times than it worked, it will also not work.  The whole reasoning behind why the casino provides electronic scoreboards costing thousands and thousands of dollars in product cost as well as maintenance.  As well, also the reasoning why all casinos provide pens and scorecards and most will virtually allow players to have their own clipboards with elaborate notes, etc., right at the table. 

What actually happens is, that the shoe presentments will present the anticipated trigger less winning times then losing times. Don't believe me? Run it for yourself. Live as well as right on your kitchen table. Buy eight decks of cards, shuffle them, cut and burn, deal over and over. Watch, note and absorb. Every single trigger you can think of will be presented. Keep track of how many will produce your following winning hand and how many produced a following losing hand. Record how many times those third card pulls for either side causes the following hand to win or lose. Record how many times those ties and naturals do the same thing. Record how many times BB-P, or BBB-P, or PP-B, or PPP-B, as well all the other ones, produces your following winning hand. Record it all.  You might be amazed that your tigger wins 2 or 3 times out of every 10 times or so it appears.  But I know from my years of playing that the wins by those triggers on the following hands, is going to be much less than 50% of the times that they appear.

All misnomers. There's no other way to describe it. Each and everyone of them. The designation of a winning or losing hand yet to present itself based on what has happened, is such foolishness and wishful thinking, it baffles my mind to the maximum.

Your redundant and repetitive upcoming chances to win, lies within small sections before and after each turning point is established.  All based upon what the shoe is presenting, not what you desire the shoe to produce.

So the game has a negative expectation, so what? You can afford yourself an advantage by not continuously wagering mechanically for one side or the other, as well as, not continuously following any other event whenever it appears. If you do, you will definitely be on the negative side of a 50-50 chance to remain solvent, let alone be a winner.

In other words, wagering  continuously for anything to continue or cut, is the absolute wrong way to play the game. Because if you do, you have 100% subjected  yourself to the negative expectation that the game is statistically proven to afford the player.
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