Even though you never want it to happen systems always appear to run out over time. The method that was ravaging last month can hardly stand this month or it is outright in loss.
What is your advice? should we put it away and find another new method? should we make incremental tweaks to bring the method back and try again the next month or next year?
Throughout my life I have used many systems. it always comes a time when I wonder why continue with a system that is losing. It happens to all. what is your suggestion for dealing with this? Thank you very much for your opinion.
Unless we do acid test of a system, we can always have an illusion of a system being great as in short sessions it may get to see losses after so many successful sessions. Variance or say luck may be at your side. Even a ten step martingale players get to win for months and even years if they play once/twice a week.
Only way to ensure the real fate of a system is the long run test on complete random and unknown data. http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/19400636/Long-run-in-gambling#.V2YTUvl97IU
The problem with saying systems will fail in the long run is defining the long run. If my system works for me for 50 years and I die, was it successful in the long run? It was for me, my run is over.
wanna , its always a question of, 1. how many units was the drawdown ?, 2.how many units was it winning before going south ?, 3. can your bankroll sustain this system, to hopefully turn things around. if it lost out of the gates ditch it.
always bet small when kicking off a new plan, i thought i had something good ,over bet it, went south at the jump, lesson learnt.
Quote from: zuffle on June 20, 2016, 03:00:24 AM
The problem with saying systems will fail in the long run is defining the long run. If my system works for me for 50 years and I die, was it successful in the long run? It was for me, my run is over.
Check the link in my last post. I have already defined the long run.