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cryptocurrency and me

Started by Albalaha, November 05, 2021, 09:47:29 AM

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KungFuBac

"...Just wait 5-6 months to see an all time high price, easily going over $80k...."

I will revisit this thread in less than 5-6 months. The lessons to be learned could be better stated as: "Some lessons can't be taught."

I do admire the marketing of bitcoin et al cryptos as it will go down in history as a marketing masterpiece. The gold-colored coin with a capitol "B" along with a $ sign. Marketing genius. I wonder why they didn't choose a rock, stick, SIM card, computer mouse,..etc.

The losers are ill-informed buyers caught up in the spiral of greed. The result is a massive transfer of wealth from ordinary families to internet promoters. Opinion by Kungfubac.

Some of the early clues that crypto was on a hype train and not a sound financial investment:

a)The U.S. media was all for it and incessantly singing the praises and virtues of all things cryptos.
Financial gurus such as Michael Saylor, Max Kaiser, Jim Cramer,...etc  plugged it every chance(until it tanked numerous times. Jim Cramer has for years had a financial show on CNBC, written books,...etc. His picks have been so horrendous for the past three(as in 30yrs)  decades that a (Anti Jim Cramer) stock index has been formed, lol. The (SJIM). He still writes books and has a financial advice show.

b) It was first proclaimed to be a currency, now, a commodity, IMO a commodity at best.

c) It can't go up unless someone pays you more for it. The greater fools theory fits it best vs Ponzi scheme. A ponzi scheme runs out of new investors and the perpetrator runs out of funds to make any payouts. See Bernie Madoff.

We all could buy 10,000 items with it tomorrow and it wouldn't necessarily go up(or down). It does nothing and produces nothing. An interesting and theoretical concept, at best.

d) It helps to understand that a bitcoin has no value at all.

Since its inception promoters incessantly claim cryptocurrency is valuable as (1) a means of payment, (2) a store of value and/or (3) a thing in itself. None of these claims are true.

1. Means of Payment. Bitcoins are accepted almost nowhere vs proclamations of everywhere, and most cryptocurrencies nowhere at all. Even where accepted, a currency whose value can swing 10 percent or more in a single day is useless as a means of payment.

2. Store of Value. Extreme price volatility also makes bitcoin undesirable as a store of value. And the storehouses — the cryptocurrency trading exchanges — are far less reliable and trustworthy than ordinary banks and brokers.

3. Thing in Itself. A bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It only has value if people think other people will buy it for a higher price — the Greater Fool theory.

Cryptocurrency is best-suited for one use: Criminal activity. Because transactions can be anonymous — law enforcement cannot easily trace who buys and sells — its use is dominated by illegal endeavors.

Most heavy users of bitcoin are criminals, such as Silk Road and WannaCry ransomware. Too many bitcoin exchanges have experienced spectacular heists, such as NiceHash and Coincheck, or outright fraud, such as Mt. Gox and Bitfunder. Way too many Initial Coin Offerings are scams — 418 of the 902 ICOs in 2017 have already failed.
*Note--See FTX, See Sam Bankman-Fried.

Bitcoin transactions are sometimes promoted as instant and nearly free, but they're often relatively slow and expensive. It takes about an hour for a bitcoin transaction to be confirmed, and the bitcoin system is limited to five transactions per second. MasterCard can process 38,000 per second. Transferring $100 from one person to another costs about $6 using a cryptocurrency exchange, and well less than $1 using an electronic check.

Bitcoin is absurdly wasteful of natural resources. Because it is so compute-intensive, it takes as much electricity to create a single bitcoin — a process called "mining" — as it does to power an average American household for two years. If bitcoin were used for a large portion of the world's commerce (which won't happen), it would consume a very large portion of the world's electricity, diverting scarce power from useful purposes.

Not a peep from the climate folks and environmentalists.


I agree with most of the opinions above. Reference and kudos also go to B. Harris, former CEO of Intuit and founding CEO of PayPal and Personal Capital. He has written many fine articles regarding all things bitcoin.



"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

KungFuBac

Btc at 61,916 today 3/2/24. This is insane, however, it is fun to watch. Hopefully any bitcoiner forum members are taking a little profit.

As I have mentioned in previous posts I haven't owned any btc since it was approx 20K range. I would buy a little and wait until the volatility provided a >=7% quick profit(occasionally 13% or so). I would then buy precious metals bullion, This approach has worked great thus far as btc is so volatile that I typcially only had to watch a few days to unload the btc.

Of course once I had spent my btc I had to wait for it to regress/yoyo within a band width that I thought I had more potential for it to up,...etc. I've been waiting/waiting/waiting but its obviously on a run. So I haven't been able to rinse/repeat since $20K.

I actually have been adding additional BITI (Short btc futures) and tried to add another tier @ $8.35 this past week but didn't quite reach it as BITI currently sets at $8.56.

In a recent interview with Warren Buffet he suggested all the btc and especially the new ETF offerings on btc derivatives is simply a way for the financial markets to tap into the inherent gambling nature of human beings. I tend to agree.

IMO the financial investing world is benefitting tremendously from this new influx of billions into the new ETFs. Many investors perceive this is a way to invest into btc(though they don't actually own any btc). However, if btc continues to escalate they may indeed make money. Though what goes up must come down(eventually). Just my opinion.

*We were discussing btc at the bac tables a couple days ago and one of the Bac comrades suggested to the pit boss they should run a BTC ticker tape in table pit(Like the NY stock exchange runs on wall street). We could all watch from our tables and place bets (daily expiration) with fellow gamers. You could form your ticket within any bet(or payout: 1:1, 2:1,...etc) the two-member party agreed upon.

His idea was that we could design our own ticket(wager), go over to a kiosk and enter(similar to how we do sports betting at the Caesars portal in casinos). We would have to verify funds by front money, credit line, or electronically(chk account) so casino could confirm. We would print three tickets for each bettor, and one for the casino to hold. Then we both walk to the cashiers cage and attach $1 each per ticket(regardless of amount of wager). When the bet was settled that day the winner would go to the cage and show the ticket. The winner would get their $1 back, the casino keeps the losers' $1 as profit, and pays the winner.

An example: Im sitting at the table with forum member Albalaha. We look at the ticker scrolling over head and note BTC @ 61,900. I tell Albalaha I think BTC will hit 61,800 "before" it hits 62,000. We go to the Kiosk and enter the wager, print out 3 tickets, go over to cage and register with cage(along with our $1 each).

Another example of great ideas coming from the bac tables.  :)

Any thoughts or ideas?



Continued success to all,
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Albalaha

BTC is already at its all time high now and growing day by day. Those seeing at its volatility has missed the boat. It will see a sharp decline maybe by the end of 2024 but before that prices will go up only. Those stayed invested in btc and ethereum in the last 5 years are the biggest gainers in any form of investment possible.
Email: earnsumit@gmail.com - Visit my blog: http://albalaha.lefora.com
Can mentor a real, regular and serious player

Albalaha

It came over $69k, corrected a bit and still at good enough price today over $67k.


Those considering themselves smarter than Blackrock putting $3 Billions in it should introspect a bit more.
Bitcoin doesn't have any intrinsic value! OK. Does diamond have any? Value for anything is decided by demand and supply forces. Here, I quote the classic case of Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble?
The Dutch tulip bulb market bubble (or tulip mania) was a period in the Dutch Golden Age during which contract prices for some of the tulip bulbs reached extraordinarily high levels and then dramatically collapsed in February 1637; the rarest tulip bulbs traded for as much as six times the average person's annual salary at the height of the market.

Supply of Shiba Inu even after huge burning is in Quadrillions that exceeds even the assets of the universe taken together even if it reaches $1 in value. XRP is capped at 100 Billions hence could reach a value of even $50 in the long run. Bitcoin total supply as of present is a bit over 19 millions and rest could take 100 years to be mined. This clarifies that getting a value of $100k is realistic for a bitcoin.

It is a decentralized finance and hence has no government control and that makes it kind of permanent mode of transfer of value unless anything better comes and takes its place.
             Bitcoin can not keep monopoly over the market hence Ethereum and some other prospective altcoins shall stay too.
Email: earnsumit@gmail.com - Visit my blog: http://albalaha.lefora.com
Can mentor a real, regular and serious player

Albalaha


 So, it is over $71k already and rising.
Email: earnsumit@gmail.com - Visit my blog: http://albalaha.lefora.com
Can mentor a real, regular and serious player

KungFuBac

"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

KungFuBac

Bitcoin at 62,900 today 3/22/24. By the time some of you on the other side of the globe read this it may be at 73k or 53k. As I've mentioned in past few weeks, I have been adding positions in BITI(Proshares SHORT Bitcoin Futures). So obviously it moves opposite BTC direction. That is if BTC goes up my BITI shares decrease, and vice versa.  Today I was able to unravel 20% (1 of 5 tier levels) of total shares @ an approx. +13.5% ROI.
My motto: "The trend must end".  Just like in gambling. :)

I'm still underwater on the initial tier purchases. I was optimistic in past couple weeks that I could add two additional tier levels if Bitcoin euphoria continued and BTC went to 85k levels. I actually hypothesized that once BTC went through 55k without much of a retracement that it could then move upward to 85k range before retracement <=30%.

*I saw a stat this week that new first-time BTC buyers in past six months had an avg entry price @ 54k. So, we may actually see a retracement to that level as a temporary basal level.

**I also saw several weeks ago when BTC was in 40k--50k range. It regressed -10--12k over a few days and that only 3% of BTC owners were responsible for the move.

__________________________________________________________

Poster above: "Those considering themselves smarter than Blackrock putting $3 Billions in it should introspect a bit more..."

    The U.S. Government agreeing to grant approval for BlackRock's ETF is confirmation the U.S. Gov is wanting to have some control over the BTC market. I'm still not clear on exactly what the USgov plans with BTC market. I suspect BlackRock has been quietly buying BTC at very low prices in past 6-8 years(with US Gov knowledge and support).

Blackrock is currently the largest manager of U.S. Gov pension/retirement. BR manages approx. 12 trillion of U.S. Gov retirement pensions. If one has worked for the U.S. Gov it is likely that Blackrock manages your retirement directly or indirectly. I like them relative to most financial managers as they only charge 0.76% management fee. Plus, they will continue managing after one retires. Many funds mgrs. do not allow(without addendum fees or penalties). Which is really good. This fee % is often overlooked.

They also offer one of the lowest management fees for their recent ETF Vs other ETFs such as Grayscale. I suspect these upfront fees is one of the main reasons we are now seeing all these recent ETF offerings from numerous investment companies.

Re:ETFs

In two consecutive days last week Grayscale saw 640 million /400+Million of outflowing funds from their ETFs as recent investors unloaded. In two days, Grayscale lost 40% of their total Bitcoin holdings they had accumulated in past decade. Over the past week they saw over 12 billion $ in outflow.

    *I'm starting to hear a few of the early and very large bitcoin advocates acknowledge that BTC is not suitable for a currency.




Best of luck to all bit coiners,
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Albalaha

BTC will stay and get stronger. Those predicting that it will not last should learn from BlackRock, Elon Musk and other big whales who are into it for a reason. BTC should get more peaks and troughs this year giving us opportunities to enter and exit many times. Eythereum is also very good choice apart from BTC.
Email: earnsumit@gmail.com - Visit my blog: http://albalaha.lefora.com
Can mentor a real, regular and serious player

KungFuBac

"...BTC will stay and get stronger... Those predicting that it will not last should learn from BlackRock.. ."


BTC at 69,500 today 4/1/24. I think its been up or down a couple K in past 24 hours.

I agree it will stay and be around for awhile(Until the next big thing). So are tulips and beanie babies. In fact, I gave my neighbor approx half of the tulips from one of our flower beds after they complemented them. I probably received them free 20years ago or maybe paid $3-5 at Lowes Home Supply. But yes indeed tulips are still around. So are beanie babies as I recently saw a bin of them for $3 each at a local antique store.

BTC is nothing like it was defined in its initial White Papers in 2008--2009. So just because they keep changing what it is and will become doesn't mean the folks 14 years ago were correct.

The tenets from its origin papers are easily refuted. So the BTC we are seeing today in its current state is largely due to great marketing and a cultish type following that is now coupled with a financial instrument.
BTC most resembles a commodity/ most certainly is not and will not be a currency unless it continues to evolve. Which then makes it NOT the bitcoin from its origin. Thus far I have not seen anything transacted with bitcoin(unless very recently). Items are transacted in dollars and then translated into bitcoins.
In fact, if we really needed a new way to do electronic payments doing so with Apple shares (ApplBit)would have been significantly more efficient. Far more people owned Apple stock and if a large enough audience bought (AppleBit) they would have incentives to also buy Apple products (Iphones, Ipads,..ets) to directly increase the value of AppleBit. If one owns BTC ones only hope is to sell it to someone else for more.


I recently observed a clip from a talk show host on CNBC and after the guest pointed out that BTC had drifted so far from its original tenets and had no characteristics of a currency. The CNBC host (without hesitation) immediately states: "well that's what makes BTC such a unique currency is that it has the ability to "evolve" like no other currency ever in our history". The guest almost burst out laughing but quickly tried not to scoff at the host/ the CNBC host even had to hide his own laugh as he knew what he just said was BS.

The original claims such as total anonymity, government can't ever see what you're doing, can't be hacked, well if u get hacked u should have put your holdings in a hot wallet--OR cold wallet, transactions are free, transactions are fast,....etc.

IMO the recent ETFs (and the fees collected by exchanges/investment Co such as Blackrock) will keep BTC alive for many years as they are making a killing on these new ETF fees. Today's stock market is much like a casino. IMO the casino gives one a less manipulated market if one plays low H.E. games such as Bac.

The following in part from Investopedia:

What Changed Since 2008 and 2009?

Bitcoin's lifespan contains an enormous history of ups and downs, both in terms of its dollar price as well as its development and support. For an idea that started as an anonymous research paper, its reputation and large market capitalization are astounding. To enjoy these accomplishments, Bitcoin had to endure several diversions from its original white paper:

Mining centralization:
Bitcoin's popularity drove its price up, which made mining very lucrative. Though the network is designed to be decentralized, those with enough money built large mining facilities in areas that subsidize electricity, thereby concentrating an important source of Bitcoin's power into the hands of a few.

Incentives:
Part six of the white paper outlines the rewards to miners, but even the largest are not immune to market forces. Mining Bitcoin gets progressively harder as the network grows, and so eventually, mining it en masse requires a lot of hardware, electricity, and cooling. This creates a breakeven point for mining, which is a factor that was not anticipated in the white paper.

Blockchain's size:
Part seven of the white paper is about keeping blockchain's size at a minimum, and so far, it's done a decent job. However, at around 558 GB as of March 23, 2024, it is a significant storage burden.
15
Blockchain.com. "Blockchain Size (MB)."

Privacy:
Satoshi illustrates his vision for private transactions in part 10, but Bitcoin is now only private for those who take great caution to ensure their anonymity. Most Bitcoin is now traded between centralized exchanges that require identification (and occasionally bank account verification), so it is not difficult to trace to whom it belongs or where it is going. Bitcoin's speculation-fueled popularity put it in the spotlight of government and central banks long ago. Though people understand institutional finance cannot ever destroy Bitcoin entirely, at this point, it is as much a part of Bitcoin as regular users are.

Speed and Fees:
Bitcoin's core development team has made changes to its code over time to address problems with transaction speeds and costs. They have altered the size of blocks being verified and opened up pathways for integration with off-chain solutions like the Lightning Network. Whether these side chains or second-layer solutions will pay off in the long run remains to be seen.


Just my quick thoughts/opinions as I skim the forum late at night.

More later/ Best of luck to all bitcoiners,
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Albalaha

Among all the cryptos at an ATH in 2021, only BTC touched a next level ATH. Halving is closer and so is $80K level.
Email: earnsumit@gmail.com - Visit my blog: http://albalaha.lefora.com
Can mentor a real, regular and serious player

KungFuBac

BTC @ 71,500 today 4824.
I agree Alb we may see <=80K in near future. After it held above low 50s I projected we could potentially see <=85-86k as an apex. After all the halving hype there will be a retreat toward a mild basil near 50K IMO. We could possibly see a retraction >=30%.

There are so few holders of btc at large quantities the price can and will fluctuate with great volatility as the large holders see fit.

*Another concern is even if the small holders hedge their bets with inverse ETFs such as (BITI), btc is traded 24-7 and BITI as well as most markets (In USA) are only open 8am--4pm. So just a few BTC holders can really alter the markets at night or weekend.


Good luck to all bit coiners/remember to take some profits or at least get your cost basis +3% out. Then let it ride if you desire as thou shalt see high volatility in coming month.
Just another investing tip from your Uncle Kung  :nod:


Continued Success To All,



"There are many large numbers smaller than one."