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[Albalaha]

I have got a basic tracker of my recent MM that wins good and average sessions easily and with same methodology, I can sustain very worst cases too, playing all over with a fixed EC bet. This tracker of mine is coded in VB hence need to input the string of L(losses) and W(wins) manually, one by one. Please have a look at these sessions and let me know if you can handle such massive variance against you with any MM of yours? Over smart guys who will come up with I will play it Opposite or anything alike, need not comment. Whichever way they can pick bet could get such losses. Only thing one can do is to stop at a particular loss. If any of you can let us know any MM approach that can beat all these sessions within 500 chips bankroll, I would consider that person to be a legend.

Session #1:          losses: 140, wins: 96, SD: over 2.5 SD below mean overall
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[Albalaha]

SESSION#2: SUPERHARSH. FIRST 100 DECISIONS HAS ONLY 29 WINS AND OVERALL 133 LOSSES VS 79 WINS
I USED MAX BET 12 TO BEAT IT.
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[Albalaha]

Session #3: 40 wins vs 66 losses, max bet used=9 units

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[ice789]

wow

[sean]

Hi. What's your win in units for this stretch?

SESSION#2: SUPERHARSH. FIRST 100 DECISIONS HAS ONLY 29 WINS AND OVERALL 133 LOSSES VS 79 WINS
I USED MAX BET 12 TO BEAT IT.
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[PatternAnalys]

Dear Albalaha,
I greatly admire your deep knowledge,
(practically and theory)...and learned a lot from your writing.

May I ask you a very important question.

Question:In all your lifetime experience, and millions of real casino's data analysing,

in 100spins, or hands,

what the worst extreme EC hit( in real casino data)?
I think it never less than 30hit/100.
Your answer, very important to me, since I try to create a method and strategy to mm and progression.
Thanks in advance.

[Albalaha]

Dear Albalaha,
I greatly admire your deep knowledge,
(practically and theory)...and learned a lot from your writing.

May I ask you a very important question.

Question:In all your lifetime experience, and millions of real casino's data analysing,

in 100spins, or hands,

what the worst extreme EC hit( in real casino data)?
I think it never less than 30hit/100.
Your answer, very important to me, since I try to create a method and strategy to mm and progression.
Thanks in advance.

Wong,
         I have observed millions of data, be it baccarat or roulette. I m gradually getting inclined towards baccarat more than roulette due to speed, fun and lesser house edge. It is rare to find below 30/100 but I believe it could go upto 25/100 as well. I m not afraid even if I get 15/100 or even worse. If we analyze billions of data, we might get to see something like that. Nothing bad or good is absolute. Never forget that. What you haven't seen yet, you might face today.
        It is very wrong idea to try to beat 30/100 type cases. I only try to sustain such cases and win gradually. That too with bearable loss.

[Albalaha]

Hi. What's your win in units for this stretch?
Session#2

I did not note that but I believe I got into net profit at the last win.

[Albalaha]

SESSION#4:
                    WINS:65 VS LOSSES: 108, WORST BR= -75, NET WIN=52 UNITS
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[Albalaha]

Session5:
           62 losses vs 38 wins. First 30 hands have only 4 wins. Max bet=7 units, Max DD=-39, won +2 net profit at 100th hand.

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[Albalaha]

Now, let's have a look at an average session.
        Session#6: 42 wins vs 58 losses, max bet=7, max DD= -21, Net win= 39 units.


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[Albalaha]

SESSION# 7:

         Simple bad session 41 Wins vs 59 Losses. Max DD: -28, Max unit used: 9, Net win: +24 units. No clumping wins.

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[Albalaha]

SESSION # 8:
                  16 WINS vs 32 losses. something unbeatable even with labouchere, Max bet=5, Max DD= -22, net win=1 unit.

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[AsymBacGuy]

That's impressive.

Anyway, say I would only bet after a W hoping to get a W either consecutively or 1 and 2 gapped.
Thus I'd let it go every other sequence not belonging to any WW, WLW, WLLW pattern.
After all, those are the main patterns to hope to get a flat betting advantage (besides a first W).

Since here we are playing without a verified edge and by utilizing a progression, each of those patterns must escalate separately as the single pattern probability will change depending upon the previous situation.

Therefore only a (L)WLLL situation will form ALL of the three above patterns as losers but we may need just one or two patterns to get a slight balancement after a strong deviation  happened at ALL three patterns.

So imo it's not about the simple number of times we'll be right after being wrong for long that matters, but just about catching the "right" distribution probability that must return even slightly to normal statistical values after strong deviations happened per each step considered.

as.

[Albalaha]

AsymBacGuy,
                        "We will bet only this or only after this", such things do not work in real life. Whichever way you might pick your bet, you may still get very bad patches ahead. Shying away from them or consoling or rather fooling ourselves that we can somehow avoid very long/bad patches of losses will not be correct, atleast for us having skills to test and have huge experience of playing.
                I myself talked of triggers in one of my recent topic but I always insisted that do not take them as one will take with fallacious thinking. No amount of past variance guarantees better than average outcomes ahead. Always keep this in mind.
                One money management meant to win the outcomes of long run, sustaining the worst possible meanwhile and also good enough to win good and slightly poor than average sessions is only way to beat the casino ultimately or rather say can extract net profit/regular income.
                 It is pretty doable but unfortunately I see almost no effort towards this direction. Everybody is striving to get an edge in betselection itself which is not doable in a purely random game which is not a game of skill but only of chance.