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[roversi13]

I completely agree with you

[Jimske]

That's a great post gr8.....I've had to look inside myself many times to answer that very question.....discipline for me is key so it's something I've had to battle within myself...

DITTO.  See Gr8?  I agree with you a lot!

[Jimske]

I want to add a consideration. I am a smal-ball player, I mean I play to get 1 to 5 units per shoe.
I try to go for 5 or more if it's a good one but as soon as I lose, I exit that shoe.
its important that your stop loss is adequate, you cannot aim for 3 units when winning and losing 10 in a bad shoe. if you are aiming to 3 you must lose at least 4 max 5, then exit. that way if losing and winning shoes balance, your bankroll doesn't suffer too much!

Excellent point. 

But don't you think that you really got to keep bets small with a 3 unit win goal?  Anything else would put you in the jeopardy you mention above.

Now for fun I ran my last bet selection on 7 shoes trying to figure out how I'd do this.  So I first just flat bet and stopped at +3 or -5.  The 7 shoes ended up with a 54% total win rate but still lost 4 units overall.  Then I ran Guetting on the same selection and it won 18 units (net) on those 303 bets.

So the Guetting was no better than flat bet in this sample but it generally wouldn't do worse and could do much better depending on the WL patterns.

My conclusion for me is that I wouldn't be able to win 3 units a shoe on average this way but the best chance would be to use Guetting with maybe a bit of MM.  But I was down 13.4 units (4 shoes) before Guetting finally had a good shoe and won 7.05 units.  At that point I was at a 49% hit rate.

Otherwise do this would require using a whole different approach the way I do now using negative progression, occasional parlays and MM along with winning more hands than lose.  Very difficult to win when much lower than 48% hit rate.

J