Quote from: Gizmotron on April 29, 2016, 04:50:27 PM
That's it, recreational player. I just said what I did not to offend him but to warn others that might fall for it. A complete and full explanation of his discretionary tactics might save this discussion and it would be very interesting to hear what he has to say. Hey Hey!

I'm still asking "fall for what?"  The guy gave his parlay method and stated that he getting an overall win using it.

Any deep progression is going to win a huge percentage of trials (shoes).  I ran some basic tests against this using a mechanical selection and it showed an 85% shoe win rate which, given the depth of the prog, seems pretty reasonable.  Problem is it seems you need at least 90% to profit from it because at 85% it lost. 

So obviously key off something you like but expect to make some subjective adjustments. 

So what's he trying to get you to fall for?

J

Quote from: Gizmotron on April 30, 2016, 01:53:31 PM

Check out the chemical dependency and the area of the brain that shuts down when anyone becomes a problem or addicted gambler. It takes smarts.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-brain-gets-addicted-to-gambling/

Important read.  IMO it is the very rare person who is gambling regular and not affected by the chemical changes that go on while playing.  Add the psychological environment (lighting, sound, color, etc.) and it is easy to succumb particularly if fatigue sets in.

I have witnessed the "chimp" take over my play a few times myself.  Fortunately for me these times have been few and far between.  But I am aware of the danger and use deliberate mechanisms to consciously prevent such.

I haven't had such numerous ballsy experiences as you but several ocean sailing experiences like a de-masting and caught in 50' waves in the gulf stream come close.  I only mention these to say that the gambling experience is a lot different.  We go the casino on purpose knowing the elements.  When we undertake an adventure it is not expected that we will be in serious life threatening harms way.

Maybe a lot of people go to the casino for a thrill.  Maybe you do.  I don't.  I don't go for fun.

J

Quote from: marinetech on April 30, 2016, 02:36:11 AM

Whoever johno is or the other guy, maybe you are obsessed with them. I could care less about either one. Carry on...

No worries, the john-O-theclown-mr.tilt is just a senile old loser coconut, anyway. The boy blew his credibility on the wizard forum a while back, but at the least he still provide some entertainment values, hey hey.

Quote from: soxfan on April 29, 2016, 11:54:27 PM
I NEVER claimed to have been winning at the baccarats for 30+ years. So, it seems that you, like the john-O/mr.tilt have a reading comprehension problem, hey hey.

Sounds like you need go eat some potatoes mick

Quote from: TheLaw on April 29, 2016, 09:34:33 PM
Already tested Seth's method.........and it tanked. http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15786.msg136479#msg136479

If you read the blog carefully, you'll notice that eventually he claims that you will get to the 5000 unit loss, and then just try to win more than you lose to get back to even.........because it's due (wish I had a dollar for every time I heard that one).

Seth also claims that you should move to another table when things turn south..........but also claims that moving tables doesn't matter in the long run. This is called invisible compromise........used to slip out of a logical argument when you're losing.

Even in early testing of the most Conservative approach he suggests.........I hit the 5000 unit ceiling many times.

The major red flag, which should be apparent to anyone reading his material.........is where is his proof of winning For a guy who loves charts........you would think he would have a few cash-out receipts laying around to show off.

Well done, Sturgis is a fake

Quote from: marinetech on April 30, 2016, 02:36:11 AM
Listen, I don't know you, don't care to but you always make it seem like you win and win often. You claim you need a progression and have BIG BALLS, etc, etc. But, again, that is all you do, talk......and talk......and talk........sort of like asym does. You guys must be related because you talk a really big game but neither of you provide anything. zip. zilch. nada.

I guess I don't get it but i don't have to. Again, i have no problems with you, I don't know you but I have a problem with people who claim they make "cake", but never disclose the ingredients. To me, that is someone who loves the attention. Hey, look at me! I bet big and I use longggggg progressions and use DEEP pockets. SO WHAT???

Whoever johno is or the other guy, maybe you are obsessed with them. I could care less about either one. Carry on...

Finally somebody else sees through the BS and can read between the lines of our habitual 5 year old, bulldog being fed, cake, gravel, stones, balls, low stakes online play  > dublinbet, LOL, HEY HEY

Quote from: MarkTeruya on May 01, 2016, 01:33:12 PM
Finally somebody else sees through the BS and can read between the lines of our habitual 5 year old, bulldog being fed, cake, gravel, stones, balls, low stakes online play  > dublinbet, LOL, HEY HEY

Good to see the john-o the clown show back on the air, hey hey!

Marinetech asked why are winning players even here or something to that effect.  The answer is. . . .  old friends coming together for some entertaining chit chat . . . priceless!

Let me add; how long have we all been going back and forth now?  Has it been over ten years now?

Quote from: soxfan on May 01, 2016, 02:38:11 PM
Good to see the john-o the clown show back on the air, hey hey!

I'll acquaint your ignorance to "lack of starch" in the gene pool somewhere down the line.  Do keep extending that progression though, that's the spirit, aha aha.

Quote from: Jimske on May 01, 2016, 01:12:51 AM
I'm still asking "fall for what?"  The guy gave his parlay method and stated that he getting an overall win using it.

Any deep progression is going to win a huge percentage of trials (shoes).  I ran some basic tests against this using a mechanical selection and it showed an 85% shoe win rate which, given the depth of the prog, seems pretty reasonable.  Problem is it seems you need at least 90% to profit from it because at 85% it lost. 

So obviously key off something you like but expect to make some subjective adjustments. 

So what's he trying to get you to fall for?

J

I guess, like Aces21, I'm going to have to talk to myself since nobody wants to discuss the prog soxfan has put forth with any kind of objectivity.

1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20.  12 step.  Winning 2 IAR isn't all that hard but can be devastating if you can't reach 90%.  But one could work up to giving it a go with a much smaller bankroll by using MM and a stutter within the progression to extend it.  Of course by reducing the escalation we will also reduce our profit potential but a win is a win.

I think it was The Law who was chagrined over the fact that soxfan did not lead him to a winning bet selection.  Well, IMO, there is none.  But any one you choose will hit 85%.  I can't prove it.  That's a guess.  Maybe some of you math guys will give it a go.  Just use some follow the shoe placement.  I hope you guys can figure something like that out by now.  Use NOR or Pitboss, whatever.

So the first thing you do, Law, is learn to recognize the nemesis.  Should be pretty easy.  That's when you got to switch to and stop, guess, another placement.  In the meantime you use the stutter move to cut back the progression when a) you don't want to risk too many of the units you already won or b) you are really in trouble and you need to expand the prog from 12 to 13 or even 14 steps.  Some of this MM will just bring you back to even or just cut your losses to a recoverable level.  You'll have to decide when and where to do that.  I'm not going to spoon feed you but here's an example.

You lose 11112 and are now down 6 units.  So you flat bet the 2 once, twice, whatever and then go into the 3-4-6 etc.  Once you get your back to back win you re-start.  And you don't necessarily need a back to back.  Maybe you win the 6 unit and just restart at 2 units.  Hit the 6-2 then restart.  You might be down a few units doing this but back to back should ocurr often enough to start grinding out some decent wins. 

There should be plenty of shoes where you will just out and out win without risking a whole lot.  Patience, discipline, build your bank.  After all this IS GAMBLING - HELLO?

j

Quote from: MarkTeruya on May 02, 2016, 01:18:48 AM
I'll acquaint your ignorance to "lack of starch" in the gene pool somewhere down the line.  Do keep extending that progression though, that's the spirit, aha aha.

Why don't you tell us all how many times you got clipped for 200+ units using yer super safe, flexible labby style? I'm well stocked up on cashew and Guinness so regale us, hey hey.

Seth @ Ian Harmer, while suggesting his progression forgot that with infinite bankroll and unlimited table there are hundreds of ways to win for sure. He only boasted of Oscar Grind as he suggested to be a winner without simulating his ideas himself. It seems he either lacks skills to simulate long data or trying to fool all with a method without any mathematical support or empirical evidence. I talked to him in length via emails. He just "feels" that his said method will turn casinos upside down while in reality it will do the opposite.
           Imspirit.wordpress.com elaborated his method in details with correct simulations and unless we have infinite chips it has to lose as any other method. With infinite chips Martingale, Labouchere or Fibonacci can do the same. Check: https://imspirit.wordpress.com/tag/seth-theobeau/
This picture(courtsey imspirit) tells everything:
[attachimg=1]

             I wrote a bit about his methodology in my forum here: http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/19400639#.VybJL_l97IU


With no table limits, anything will win.

Regarding betselection he told me:


"All that matters is that whatever single bet selection method you choose, you must stick with it without variation throughout the sample sessions. 

Switching randomly from one option to another simply compounds the house advantage."

He doesn't believe in stop loss either. It clarifies that he supports an up, up away progression that can cost anybody huge drawdowns.

I like talking with myself on here.

Deep Stack:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdY8pMHVNZs

Quote from: soxfan on May 02, 2016, 03:05:38 AM
Why don't you tell us all how many times you got clipped for 200+ units using yer super safe, flexible labby style? I'm well stocked up on cashew and Guinness so regale us, hey hey.

And if Sox's approach is working for him?  If it ain't broke...

Quote from: Jimske on May 02, 2016, 02:56:24 AM
I guess, like Aces21, I'm going to have to talk to myself since nobody wants to discuss the prog soxfan has put forth with any kind of objectivity.

1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20.  12 step.  Winning 2 IAR isn't all that hard but can be devastating if you can't reach 90%.  But one could work up to giving it a go with a much smaller bankroll by using MM and a stutter within the progression to extend it.  Of course by reducing the escalation we will also reduce our profit potential but a win is a win.

I think it was The Law who was chagrined over the fact that soxfan did not lead him to a winning bet selection.  Well, IMO, there is none.  But any one you choose will hit 85%.  I can't prove it.  That's a guess.  Maybe some of you math guys will give it a go.  Just use some follow the shoe placement.  I hope you guys can figure something like that out by now.  Use NOR or Pitboss, whatever.

So the first thing you do, Law, is learn to recognize the nemesis.  Should be pretty easy.  That's when you got to switch to and stop, guess, another placement.  In the meantime you use the stutter move to cut back the progression when a) you don't want to risk too many of the units you already won or b) you are really in trouble and you need to expand the prog from 12 to 13 or even 14 steps.  Some of this MM will just bring you back to even or just cut your losses to a recoverable level.  You'll have to decide when and where to do that.  I'm not going to spoon feed you but here's an example.

You lose 11112 and are now down 6 units.  So you flat bet the 2 once, twice, whatever and then go into the 3-4-6 etc.  Once you get your back to back win you re-start.  And you don't necessarily need a back to back.  Maybe you win the 6 unit and just restart at 2 units.  Hit the 6-2 then restart.  You might be down a few units doing this but back to back should ocurr often enough to start grinding out some decent wins. 

There should be plenty of shoes where you will just out and out win without risking a whole lot.  Patience, discipline, build your bank.  After all this IS GAMBLING - HELLO?

j

Good post, good advice, Jimske.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not endorsing this long, expensive parlay progression.  But, that said, IF one were to play it, I do like your "stutter-step" option, whereby you effectively seek to s-l-o-w d-o-w-n this rather steep progression.

You see, there are those times that we simply cannot avoid; those times where are preferred plays simply are not working.  Ain't gonna help much to load up on our bets during those times....in fact, probably much better to take your foot off off the accelerator.  This, in essence, is what Jimske is alluding to with his "stutter-step" option.  It is a bit similar to my "no-bet" option, where I attempt (I say "attempt"...it is not an exact science) to limit the damage when my preferred plays are "sleeping".  Again, we cannot avoid, totally, those tough times, but we can (and should, as astute players) do our very best to limit the damages.

There will be plenty of time to recoup when your plays are beginning to "awaken"; it is but a matter of time.  Assuming, of course, that you have the necessary patience, discipline, and desire to approach/play the game that way.

Take care, and stay well.