Thx albalaha for sharing your research, opinion, and all the BD details in post #6 above.

Re: blackdag et al speculative cryptos.

I know very little about this one or any of them. However, its my opinion one should treat them like our gambling stake. I think many times the conservative bettor that only goes for a few-units Win would do better if they took part (7--13% or so) and parlayed it four times(meaning five hits four compounds), and bring it all down (The KungfuCompound&DownKFBgoldMillionaireMethod).
Same thoughts for some of these penny cryptos or stocks. Take about 7.5%--13% of ones overall investment portfolio and look for a Black Swan event. Divide that 7--13% into seven equal allotments on seven different investments and go for the homerun. As in life we will often not get the homer but by swinging for the fences may still hit a triple or double(and will always have a very slight probability for hitting the Grand Slam).


Good luck to all investors,

BTC @ 62,700 today 42624.

As mentioned in previous posts I do not currently have any BTC/ have been betting that BTC will drop from its high of ~~73K by purchasing BITI(Proshares Short BTC).

I was able to unravel the 2nd of 5 tiers from my short position on BTC (BITI) last Wednesday (a week ago). Reminder: The BITI moves in the opposite direction of BTC futures.

My sell was for 20% of my stake at a >=16.6% profit. I still have 3 of 5 tiers remaining and though the next tier will potentially hit today or Monday the remaining two tiers are still a little underwater as I will need BTC to drop below 60K and then toward the 54k-56 range. If this 3rd tier does indeed hit Im golden/ will have several options for how to play the remaining two positions. Possibly an arbitrage situation going forward. Though Im not an advocate for hedging(Investing or gambling).


The volatility of BTC makes it difficult to project(at least for me). So I also have two additional tier Buys in place to purchase more BITI. If BTC spikes and hits the >=73K, and then 84Kish targets. In other words I have the squeeze on BTC(i.e. My KUNGFU Grip     ) At least if BTC doesn't skyrocket to >=90K in the near future. Then BTC would have me in a choke hold or at least force me into waiting for a few weeks to months,...etc.

If BTC were to hit 90K before it drops  on down to 59K I would just wait it out. As I would likely be required to just hold my last two tiers and hope for a huge decrease in BTC sometime in the future. I started placing these tiers several weeks ago so Im optimistic by bets will come to fruition within the next few days to weeks.



Good luck to all crypto investors

Will post tomorrow, been swamped with so many endeavors.  Promise they are super cool boards!

Great pics. I look forward to the tote board pics and all the details.



Continued Success,

Hi 8OR9
Good read. I had not heard of this one. I suspect we will eventually see more/more of these (FTX) type scenarios exposed. The media (in the U.S. ) seems to only give these stories a brief mention.


I saw this story a few days ago:

"...SLERF developer wipes out 50% of token supply
SLERF's developer announced on Monday that he accidentally burnt nearly 50% of the token's supply, losing $10 million in funds belonging to presale participants..."

 
What do you tell your investors (i.e., presale participants): "Whoops my bad"

It will be interesting to see if any consequences(restitution/ prison time) will be doled out eventually.



Continued Success,

Thx AsymBacGuy. Good thread.

In Post #1033 above:
"...Think about sections containing 6, 7 or more consecutive streaks without no singles and the exact opposite scenario.
Those are natural "strong" deviations that must be balanced along the way, otherwise the game would be easily beatable.

Anyway such balancement most of the time doesn't act symmetrically as the transitory deficit will be overcome by low or moderate changes of direction, privileging opposite short patterns than long patterns...."

For me this "MODERATE CHANGE" being detected early on is the key to seeing it just a split second sooner. This is one of many reasons I prefer to play a shoe from the burn onward/ not after the shoe has started.
Its no different then if someone tells you their blood pressure is 120/80 or their pulse is 72. The values become more important once we learn this persons historical average, and how much it has changed, and in which direction.
Its all about the change.




Continued Success,

Quote from: ADulay on April 12, 2024, 05:09:16 PMSo, if I read this correctly, if I purchase $1000 of something called "BlockDag" now, when it actually launches I'll have $5,000,000.

Swell.  Where do I sign up?

AD

 Well, you misread it Captain.
           Had you invested $1,000 in its presale in the first batch while the rate was $0.001 and you would have got it at $0.05 as the listing price, as claimed by the website, you could have gained 50x and your investment could have been worth $50k, in that case. Now, it is at $0.006 so you will earn 6x lesser than the purchasers of the first batch.
                  You might never have seen anything alike, I believe but it happened numerous times with cryptos. The pre sale discounts and its hype made much more money than this, in the past. Any good presale could get your money at 3x to 10x easily. 50x is not ordinary but nothing out of world if we consider the historical events of such presales.

I invested @ $0.005 and now it is at $0.006 already. To sign up, one needs to take these steps:

1. You should have a crypto wallet, preferably trust wallet or metamask

2. Make a deposit to that wallet and buy either ethereum, USDT or BNB for what you want to start investing with at least $20

3. use this link: https://purchase1.blockdag.network/?ref=isv02i9j

press "Buy" button and then "Buy coin"

4. Then you would be prompted to connect your wallet. Press "connect buton" on your wallet.

5. Then you will be redirected to the BlockDag website and it will show your wallet adress as connected. Fill in the amount of Ethereum or USDT or BNB you want to use and buy and confirm it. You wil then see your units that you have purchased.


Any doubts?

Normally anytime we choose to bet a side we hope to be more right than wrong, without giving the proper value to the numerous factors that might alter in our favor the hand's destiny.

Our algorithms act by a different and more sophisticated way: They collect the most number of actual shoe informations and they put them in relationship of a general probability ascertained after thousand and thousands of real shoes data.

It could happen that actual shoe results will substantially differ from "expected" outcomes, that's why we have increased the real betting parameters weight. After all it'll be way better to wait than hoping to be right at too confused situations.

Hoping for the best is the recreational players mantra, expecting the worst and playing the probabilities is the pros way to accumulate profits.

Let's see in a very simplified fashion what are our algos lines of operations.

1) Smaller is the number of bets made, greater will be the probability NOT to fall into the undetectable variance's realm.
It's not a coincidence that casinos want us to make a lot of bets, knowing very well that the probability to be right will esponentially decrease with the number of bets placed.

Notice that casinos will win a lot more money by exploiting players bad attitudes than by taking advantage of the HE, so mathematical issues take a minor role in that.

The math assumption why no matter how are diluted our bets the probability to win is always EV- belongs just to 2+2=5 losers.
Fortunately when a gambling game cannot be resolved by math it remains unbeatable.

2) Since the bac productions are asymmetrically produced whatever the reasons involved, selectively chasing the clustering effect of something will get more positive sequences in quantity and quality than expected by a perfect independent 50/50 proposition.
It's just a matter of time (and we should consider 'time' in a different way than casinos do).

3) Frequency and rhythm are both two decisive factors to take care of, actually casinos and mathematicians do care only about frequency not knowing a fk about rhythms of presentation.

4) Average sd values of certain pattern presentation and distribution.
If given random walks action applied to several thousands and thousands of shoes data provide 2.5 sigma negative deviation maximum levels, it means that the betting model is somewhat restrained in its negative fluctuations. On the other end the positive deviations counterpart had demonstrated to reach 3.5 or even 4 sigma values. A big edge, I guess.   

5) Raising the probability of success facilitates the clustering/isolated pattern distribution.

Anyone reading my pages knows that it's a good idea to rely upon a 0.75 probability distribution as being more detectable than a mere 50/50 or so probability.     
Actually there are times when a given losing bet entices the same losing side to be wagered again and situations when the simple random walks action suggests to bet a side independently of the previous hand's destiny.

Itlr the random walk action takes a primary role, yet when the first (losing) bet was made at Banker side, we have more reasons to bet again the Banker side for obvious reasons.
This is just the sole situation we might alter the random walk pace that we've instructed to consider outcomes as 50/50 placed.

6) More likely distributions

Whereas it's relatively likely to encounter consecutive clustered singles not belonging to the two category, it'll be slight less probable to encounter 2-3 or 3-4 lenght streaks not coming out clustered at least one time.

Exaggerating a bit and for the lovers of progressive plans, after two isolated 2-3 or 3-4 streak situations, a clustered 2-3 or 3-4 event will happen by degrees of probability well superior than what math dictates.

Of course the same progressive plan could be applied by a positive wagering "chasing" the clustered situations superior than two, relying upon the verified long term streaks propensity to form same or next to same lenght categories.

7) More likely events distribution

If we use a 0.75 probability to succeed, we'll get an expected W/L 3:1 ratio, but since any shoe is asymmetrically shaped such ratio will be disregarded several times along any shoe dealt. Say more often than not. 
Thus we should discard from our plan (in a way or another) those ideal average ratios as being less probable than what an asymmetrical distribution will be capable to do.

The list is not over yet.

See you in a couple of days.

as.