Quote from: Bhumibol on May 25, 2017, 04:45:31 AM
Yes, his is a 13 steps progression uses 100 units. It is not a martingale. It is working well for me. I never had to go pass the 8th step and again, I only looked for a few units of win each day.

If I can recall correctly, it requires successfully winning two in a row.  I think the sequence goes 1,1,3,....   

I tried it and failed miserably.  It's great when it worked but I busted 6 or 7 out of 10.  Although I don't know what the bet selection side of it was like.  I just know with that money scheme, I failed.  I would love to see someone demonstrate success with it for at least 15 SESSIONS consisting of 8 shoes without busting.   

Found it:

This is my parlay style, hey hey.
1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20-27 units bets
3-2-1-0-2-3-3-5-5-6-7-7-8 units profits

Quote from: alrelax on May 23, 2017, 10:57:42 AM

As far as flatbetting and positive progressions if you win and have a rock-solid money management system and some way to lock up money for numerous areas you are playing that is the only way to go to Prevail at Baccarat in my opinion.

You mean rock-solid bet selection?  If it's flat, it's flat and positive will always be positive.  Nothing changes there.  I think u mean solid bet selection.

Those numbers you mention are huge.  I play in the lower end.  We're fortunate to have $10 tables recently.  10 years ago, minimum was $25, $50, $100 and $300.  When it gets busy, is $50 min and $100 min when it gets super busy.  Of course that doesn't happen anymore. 

I would much prefer positive progression but in my experience I can hardly win on most days.  I have too many of those losing hands.  The only way I can overcome those losing hands is to use a negative progression.  Don't know how to improve bet selection.  Another way to overcome that is to separate those losses, that's where nesting comes in.  Many seem to think if they can win 250(5%) when their bankroll is say 5K that they can win 500(5%) with 10K.  What they don't realize is the range of table limits will limit them.  It's much hard to play 50 - 5K and it would be to play $10-2K.

My 7-8 step progress is 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320 and 640.  I get to 320 pretty frequent.  At least once or twice a day with 640.  With a 5K bankroll (more like 10K with backup in pocket).  While 640 isn't much, it's significant when you run into it at the beginning.  You are already down 630 and with another loss of 640, you're down 1270.  That is over one fifth of your bankroll.

Collecting $10 isn't much but if you play enough hands, it easily adds up to $300 for the day.  This is the part that looks bad.  Here you go, taking about 2-3 $320 bets and even a $640 bet for the day and yet you're only making $300 for the day.  My friend always make an effort to tell me that and ask why I don't just go in and take a $300 bet and leave.  It just doesn't work that way.

It's hard to fathom make $300 a day by collecting $10 for every series of bet.  Like the D'alembert, nesting allows you to collect $10 for every bet you make.  You just don't always get it right away.  The only down fall of D'alembert is reaching a high limit and get stuck in a loop with large bets.  With nested Marty, you get to reset and breathe a sigh of relief once you get a win to end the series.

Quote from: alrelax on May 23, 2017, 12:11:12 PM
Not to push the issue, but when I was back in New Jersey and New York I remember the Foxwoods Casino days when they had the for big tables in the high-limit room.  I had a buddy in the restaurant business also and we used to play there quite frequently. Whenever we needed that magical hand,  that little extra, he would sprinkle the magical dust on the cards he was looking at but of course he already knew what they were he was so fast and pulling them out of the shoe and seeing what the corners were, nobody would even know that he knew what they were. And when he was going for the long streak and everyone else was going for the cut, or if he was going for the cut and everybody was on the opposite side he would make a big to do with the magical dust. That made the games over the top, of course those were the big tables and things were certainly different.  Shoes took about  two and a half almost 3 hours a shoe and a different type of player was the norm--back prior to 2005.

I have a buddy that stares at the two words and it will tell him which side will win.  The words would pop out at him.  If it does nothing it was usually a tie or if he was really tired.  The fool would not help me because he doesn't believe in gambling.

Quote from: alrelax on May 22, 2017, 05:15:59 PM
People talk about how they are so successful at 'negative progressions' on this board.  Sure.  That is my answer.  If you are truly honest and you do truly profit consistently with negative progressions, you are probably in all essence defying the odds that have wiped countless numbers of players out. 

Sounds good and when you guys say, I always or I almost always or the majority of times, etc., etc., and so on--with negative progressions, others without the table experience are probably formulating some kind of attack and plan as they read. 

However, there are severe consequences and to name the one that I witness all the time, here it is:

What if it turns and goes to the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th repeat when you are playing and negatively wagering to win back you losses for the 'cut' and the 5th through the 10th was repeats.  Or, what if you are wagering for the repeats and it cuts for the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th time?

I agree that you will suffer severe consequences when things start to go south.  So far everyone that I came across and including myself have suffered from more than 10 consecutive losses, not just once but many times.  I might not be here on this forum as long as some of the dinosaurs here or played the game as long as some but I can probably say I put in just the same amount of time in searching for that ultimate system or approach.

I have never had a strict money management such as the Marty, D'alembert or some of the well known ones.  I don't have a strict bet selection scheme either.  I don't use any of it because I'm reluctant to put down a huge percentage of my bankroll on a bet.  However, I find that a 7-8 step nested Marty works well.  One can argue that it's no longer a Marty when it gets nested.(Egg jokes coming)

Quote from: soxfan on May 22, 2017, 10:29:02 PM
Using the deep negative progression is one of then  only ways to win regular at the baccarats, Betting flat don't feed the bulldog, hey hey!

I won't argue that it's the only way to win just because I don't know how to win flat betting.  So I'll give my opinion to why I agree with Soxfan.  Unless you have a superb betting scheme that will always give you more than 50%, your outcome will depend on which way your luck swings.  In the long run, everyone's guess will approach the 50% mark.  That means the wins or losses are at the minimal. With a negative progression, we will lose big naturally when our guesses are way below 50% and win big when it's way above it.  With negative progression we also ave a chance to win when it's at the 50% or slightly below 50%, which doesn't happen with flat bets.

Quote from: alrelax on May 22, 2017, 01:47:15 PM
No BABU, I did not.  If you are referring to the 'Pun' thread where I admitted no less than twice it was a 'Saturday Night Live' type of skit/analogy, whatever.  Magical dust and sprinkling Voodoo-have we ever done it at the big tables---sure.  Did we do it in the scientific and mathematical believes that cards change as I cited in a thread based on 'Pun'.  Come on man, seriously.  I do haz-mat spill release response for my career.  I am a serious guy to a point, but I have my outlets whether it is a 23 year old state police officer threatening me on the highway when he is clearly wrong or a baccarat player at the table shoving in a table max wager with the verbiage, 'I will make it cut', and he totally believe he can.  When I am in a situation I can exploit--laugh so hard I get a tear from my eye or two--and release some of the common and mundane day-to-day drift, so be it.   

I have said, I have a rock solid 100% money management system that fuels my buy-in stack, my reserve money and my locked-up money and cannot and will not ever lose win money.  If I win.  Three words are vital there and I have said that before, 'If I Win'.  I have lost, I never claimed to have won the past 39 times or 60+ trips etc., to the casino as others have on this very board. 

I am a long time player, a realist, a player that learned from the school of hard knocks about time playing and win money, etc.  I got deeper and deeper into the 'how's and whys' of the game of baccarat and they are pretty much spot on. 

Problem being here, I have a bit of fun with the newer players coming on the board with a few wins and their sudden spurts of 'never before found systems' no matter if they invented it the past few casinos visits or they purchased one of the thousands on the internet.  Because in all reality, those posts where someone suddenly won a few shoes or a few trips wagering 'so and so' after 'such and such' is nothing but comical, simply comical.

After two posts, I feel compel to respond now.  No worries Al.  Anyone here long enough knows that you were just having fun.  Anyone not getting that is just too unintelligent.  We all see the sarcasm in your posts regarding working systems.  I did fail to see any pun though.  Perhaps I need to spend more time and read a bit slower. 

We all know that there are other interesting things in life outside of our Baccarat world so we don't need to get serious all the time.

Quote from: Eight Iron on May 21, 2017, 11:35:56 AM
Forget about averages when it comes to Baccarat.  The number of possible Baccarat shoes is a number that is 911 digits long.

Any average is the average seen over a 911 digit long number of shoes.

Every shoe is unique. Play them that way, and don't expect the results to conform with the average.  Don't expect anything at all.

I love this post.  Most talk about average and apply it to every shoe.  Anything can happen in a shoe.  I've witness one shoe with a streak of 3 player win, and 3 streaks of 2 wins.  The rest was single chops.  The longest was 21 chops straight with no ties in between on that shoe.  I was shock to see see it on my way out the door after cashing out.  I'm not so surprise anymore after understanding the distributions of streaks and can see how this can easily happen.

Quote from: Eight Iron on May 21, 2017, 11:35:56 AM
If you didn't see a streak of five Banker wins in one-hundred consecutive shoes, that would not be statistically significant compared to the number of possible shoes that exists.

Original: I don't know if you need to go as far as 100 CONSECUTIVE shoes but it would still be significant within 8-10 shoes.  This is why I play all the shoes for the day and not play each shoe individually.

Correction:  I missed read what you wrote.  Wow!  I can see not seeing it in 100 shoes but not seeing it in 100 consecutive shoe is in my opinion very significant.  I play at least 6-10 shoes on most trips and I don't think I've came across a day without seeing at least 1 streaks of 5 wins.  Of course I wouldn't say it's impossible that it can't happen.

Quote from: alrelax on May 21, 2017, 06:47:06 PM

As far as so many people claiming to be able to do this or that with an 'iron-clad' 8% or 10% or 20% (whatever the numbers may be) profit each and every time they play----is almost fallacy.  Yes people win and people lose.  For those that claim a 100% success rate at any fixed or unfixed amount, is virtually impossible with the game.

I'm confused.  I thought you made those claim.  (Sarcasm)

On a serious note, I believe there is a small percentage (1%) of Baccarat players that are winning and they are not being delusional either.  You might be right about winning 100% of the time but I don't see any making those claims.  At least I didn't notice anyone making those claims besides Alrelax.  But of course this is only happening because he dopes himself with magical dust.

Quote from: brokerny on May 21, 2017, 02:41:46 PM
babu, i don't have a system but a special method of playing. i can probably win 6% of my bankroll in a little over an hour consistently. well, at least since i started this new method back in late february. i hit 2 snags when i deviated from the method with supposed better tweaks, but i learned my lesson not to tweak something that is already working. lost a small fortune with that mistake, but haven't looked back since switching back to the original method. if i have the energy to stay in the casino for 8+ hours, i can usually win 20-30% of my bankroll. the person who taught me this method makes a lot sense % but his bet size is much larger than mine so he only needs a few wins here and there and he can easily make 1k/day, but his bankroll is 25k. im a grinder and i stay at the casino all day to make that money.

Yes! "If it ain't broke, don't fix it!"  The only reason I can see one trying to tweak a working system/approach is to gain more.  Like Alrelax say, you have to see if the wins will out benefit what you can earn at your job/business.  Many will say the benefits of playing is tax free earning and being ones own boss.  What many don't see is the medical benefits, retirement benefits such as 401K and in some cases a pension (may apply to USA members only).

Brokerny, that is a RELATIVELY huge wining expectation especially when you want to win consistently.  The fact that you want to do it in such a short time magnifies the level of difficulty(I won't argue that it's impossible to do as there may be ways to do it).  Unless you have a huge saving, the goal you set out to do is incredibly stressful.  I was force to do this around 2009 and I can tell you that I have left pools of sweat on the casino floor.  Surprise I didn't shyt or pee in my pants.  I have witness several literally pee in their pants. 

The winning formula to me include that following:
1. Large bankroll
2. Playing within the table limit -  The table limits defines the type of strategy you can and have to use.
3. Bet selection and a greater degree, money management.
4. 8-10hr - You don't necessarily need that my hour a day. Leave when you reach your goal.
5. Balls half as big as Soxfan's

Quote from: Patience777 on April 27, 2017, 04:08:40 AM
If you have a betting method or a betting system that can beat the game of Baccarat in the long run then please post it.

I do have a betting system that can beat the game!

However,  I will post mine only after four other people have posted theirs. So my post will be #5

Serious posts only please as I will be the judge, the jury and the Pit Boss.

Remember the TV show hosted by Chuck Barris called The Gong Show?  Don't make me Gong You! LOL

Just out of curiosity, if you already have one, why are you here?  Unless one comes here to boast about it, I doubt they will be here.  I also doubt anyone with one will share, I certainly won't.  At least not until I retire from the game and start to write my book.

I will have some faith in a system if one can prove it can win 6% of bankroll daily for at least 30 days. Until then, everything is just gibberish. 

Quote from: brokerny on May 21, 2017, 04:15:41 AM
yes, believe me, its kinda stressful. but im doing it so far especially with the assistance of the golden eggs and magical dust. i need every advantage i can get. i may not be winning at a clip of 97% like Alrelax, but im holding my own.

I don't know if it would give you any advantage but if you want ideas, try looking at older posts.  It may help you conjure up something.  You may find some silly ideas may not be so silly after all if you use it in a slightly different way.   I managed to get a few good ideas from this forum and others as well.  Most of the recent posts are just garbage.

Forget about the golden eggs, it's all about the nest holding the egg.

Quote from: Gizmotron on May 16, 2017, 11:59:45 AM
Sounds like this "Nested" Martingale laid an egg.
"martingale: n. a small bird with a high-pitched, song-like chirp"

The egg has hatched!!!

Quote from: Patience777 on May 08, 2017, 02:19:49 AM

Possible Lines:

20  L                                             
40  L                                               
80  L                                               
100  L   d240  (down $240)                                 
150  L   d390  (write off a $390 Loss instead of a $620 Loss)

20  L                                             
40  L                                               
80  L                                               
100   W   d40                                 
50     L   d90 
100   L  d190
150   L  d340  (write off a $340 Loss instead of a $620 Loss)

20  L                                             
40  L                                               
80  L                                               
100   L   d240                                 
150   W  d90 
100   L   d190
150   W  d40 
50     W   +10 Profit

20  L                                             
40  L                                               
80  L                                               
100   L   d240                                 
150   W  d90 
100   W   +10 Profit

You guys now see how "nested" Marty's work.
It is possible to go around and around in circles like a dog making his bed.
But there are always winning exits along the way.

Cheers!

   

I don't see any nesting of Marty there.  Maybe our definition of nesting is different. With those huge losses and very small gains, it will take forever to even recover one set of losses.  If you have several of those losses, you might as well call it a loss for the day.

I have done random betselection and random amounts for years.  I do do anti-patterns (anti-events).  I call them events because they are not your typical repeating 2s, 3s, 2-1-2-1-2-1 and etc.  If everyone pay close attention to the sequence of wins, you will find that they sometimes repeat.  When the random winning sequence repeat, they are now patterns.  This is when random actually becomes patterns.  I did this fairly decent for years.  The gains are just too minimal because I do suffer catastrophic losses here and there.  I had the same result nesting my Marty randomly throughout the shoe.  I gave up the idea of nesting my Marty and play mechanically because all the occasional catastrophic losses lead to nowhere.

I peaked into this thread to see if you nested similar to the way I did but it wasn't. Although this thread did make me revisit nesting.  I am still nesting it the same way but broke up the shoe into pieces.  So far so good.

Quote from: soxfan on May 05, 2017, 02:31:12 AM
I'm gonna pony up the streaks distribution stat for the 8 decks baccarats shoe in hopes some of you cats will find it useful, hey hey.

singles-17.8
doubles-8.7
triples-5.2
fours-1.9

fives or more-2.1

Quote from: soxfan on May 07, 2017, 10:51:52 PM
Any style of play will cause you to have serious downdraws. From my experience a cat could get clipped for 200-300 unit in the short term bucking up against the anti-streak style. But, over the long term the results using anti-streak smooth out and make it a good, but slow earner, hey hey.

That maybe be the distribution for a lot of 8 deck shoes but if you play 8 plus shoes a day, you will know that this not the distribution for all shoes.  There will be shoes consisting of two 5 streaks, 2 6 streaks and a few streaks greater than 6 for example.

Regardless of how you manage your money or use martingale for anti-streak, the end result is a fail if you play enough shoes.  This applies to those waiting after 4 or 5 streaks to do anti-streak or chop.  Here is the exact reason:

According to your distribution, singles, doubles and shorter streaks happen more frequent.  Here is where a lot of people don't see.  There are just the same amount of singles as there are doubles since streaks of 3s contain doubles, streaks of 4s contain doubles, streaks of 5 contain doubles and so on.  If you add all those doubles, it will very closely equal to singles.  You can also go up the later and compare doubles with streaks of 3s and so on.  This is why every bet is only a difference of a little over 1%. 

This is why those claiming to win anti-streaking is lying.  Same goes to those claiming success by following streaks and chops for the LONG RUN

Quote from: Patience777 on April 06, 2017, 01:06:06 AM
Several years ago I read about this Baccarat player in Vegas.
He would go into this casino every night with aprox. 250K worth of chips.
He would play for 10 minutes or so until he got ahead about 1K and then he would quit and go home.
He did this for several nights always winning around 1K.
Then finally he got barred from the casino, and was asked not to come back, because he had a figured out a way to beat the casino.
BTW... His name was not Phil Ivey. LOL

I don't know about you guys... But I can sure live off of $1,000 per day.

Where was this at?  If it's a casino in the USA, he was probably barred for not signing the paper required by the "Patriotic Act."

That idea sounds great.  So why aren't you doing it?  Bring 40K and win $100/day.  When your bankroll increases, you can bump up your bankroll.  Please report back your results.