There are so many mathematics, statistics and probability and randomness experts over here. Can anybody tell any money management plan which can let a straight up win, if its average strike rate is 47. It means in 1000 trials, it will win only 21 times. Any takers?
Quote from: albalaha on January 26, 2013, 06:33:28 AM
There are so many mathematics, statistics and probability and randomness experts over here. Can anybody tell any money management plan which can let a straight up win, if its average strike rate is 47. It means in 1000 trials, it will win only 21 times. Any takers?
21 hits in (about, as we end sessions) 1000 spins can be beaten in some cases, probably not all. Have you test with the method in my bot? I think it will pas in a part of the permutation, but not all.I have used the method for 50000 spins and end up winning, have never checked the hit rate in details,those spins were all on number 1.
I appreciate your efforts that u did in your multi-system bot. I am talking of a wild scatter of 21 Ws in 1000 spins, upon a straight up. Which MM can help?
Quote from: albalaha on January 26, 2013, 06:52:47 AM
I appreciate your efforts that u did in your multi-system bot. I am talking of a wild scatter of 21 Ws in 1000 spins, upon a straight up. Which MM can help?
The wild scatter can be done in so many permutations, you can write a code to generate all
which has 21 wins in 1000 spins. Test against them, and I think you will not find one general MM suiting all, at best suiting most. Large job, but with a computer doable.
Which MM will suit most cases?
I do not think, anybody is going to answer this positively because nobody seems to have an answer.
I have adviced a way to test. The way which will have most winrate is a large bankroll and negative progression, if you want to pass most of the possible outcomes on plus. If you will end as winner depends on your luck.
Anybody with any suggestions?
Quote from: albalaha on February 06, 2013, 02:30:25 AM
Anybody with any suggestions?
What will the person with the "correct" answer get for all this work?
AD
What should he get?
Quote from: ADulay on February 06, 2013, 02:33:43 AM
What will the person with the "correct" answer get for all this work?
AD
So this is what a Global Moderator speaks of and you guys expect me to give my grails for free.
Quote from: albalaha on February 18, 2013, 06:46:02 AM
So this is what a Global Moderator speaks of and you guys expect me to give my grails for free.
What happened to the H.G posted here that passed 1M spins ;) with 15k BR?
Quote from: Robeenhuut on February 18, 2013, 07:23:58 AM
What happened to the H.G posted here that passed 1M spins ;) with 15k BR?
Is not a HG to pass 1M spins, i know many who can.
When it boils down towards the engine room is i would say money management.
The two best i seen been mentioning is Brett Morton's solution and John Patrick's solution.
Cheers
It was not only 1 million spins but more than 10 million spins. Can you guys find anything else doing something like that? That is a very complex bot method that works thousands of probabilities together to find suitable bets. That is not meant for playing manually or in real casino. I am asking for this MM for real casino play.
Quote from: albalaha on February 18, 2013, 07:36:35 AM
It was not only 1 million spins but more than 10 million spins. Can you guys find anything else doing something like that? That is a very complex bot method that works thousands of probabilities together to find suitable bets. That is not meant for playing manually or in real casino. I am asking for this MM for real casino play.
I think that there were bets placed every few hundreds of spins.
The way to pick bets in that bot is beyond your imagination. Don't waste your time over that. Tell me if u have any workable idea on this issue.
Quote from: albalaha on February 18, 2013, 07:48:02 AM
The way to pick bets in that bot is beyond your imagination. Don't waste your time over that. Tell me if u have any workable idea on this issue.
You don't need imagination to win at roulette and its easy to pass 10M spins if you place few thousand bets with large BR.
Now you have H.G for penny players and high rollers. Congrats
QuoteNow you have H.G for penny players and high rollers. Congrats
It can't be the H.G if he's still looking for an MM for it, every method works, it's the bank that let's them down, same here I think
Why try to win in millions of spinn, then you can do it with much less? :bored:
Quote from: albalaha on January 26, 2013, 06:33:28 AM
Can anybody tell any money management plan which can let a straight up win, if its average strike rate is 47. It means in 1000 trials, it will win only 21 times. Any takers?
Overlapped D'Alambert with micro goals and macro resets along the way.
Stupid question though. :thumbsup:
Is that 21 win in 1000 spins the worst possible scenario?
Do you maybe have L/W sequence of those spins?
Drazen
Quote from: Drazen on February 18, 2013, 12:40:31 PM
Is that 21 win in 1000 spins the worst possible scenario?
Do you maybe have L/W sequence of those spins?
Drazen
You do not expect the worse every time you run 1000 spins, you will lose 233 units flat betting one number. You can never be sure 21 is the worse case. If you can, then I think you can run even that, close to break even.
Oh I re-read and saw he said in average.. But without knowing worst possible scenario you don't know anything..
BTW he plays straight, but on how many numbers? One?
Drazen
Quote from: Drazen on February 18, 2013, 01:13:55 PM
Oh I re-read and saw he said in average.. But without knowing worst possible scenario you don't know anything..
BTW he plays straight, but on how many numbers? One?
Drazen
Yes one number. Yes we don't know the worst case or the best case scenario, so like I said, stupid question.
Albalblahblah has more than likely reverse engineered an MM that deals with this specific scenario, but that is about as useful as a ball sack on a cow, or tits on a bull, take your pick. :o
One number straight up is a good bet (for a bot), you try first as pivot, try to win in less than 36 spins. If not go on using one chip bet, until a hit. add a chip, and we use to get at hit rather soon. I have recorded 1008 sleeping number and make it win. It takes some time, that's why a bot is handy. If you just want to "beat the wheel" and gain very little you can do it manually (the bot can not make you much money and not runs faster than autospin, but more relaxing ).
As with all play, you can lose, it is still to come. I have not yet lost using this simple method.
the first 3 spins of any method should tell you "what`s what" . anything above that is horse play .
ND
Quote from: NathanDetroit on February 18, 2013, 03:30:17 PM
the first 3 spins of any method should tell you "what`s what" . anything above that is horse play .
ND
We talk about playing one straight up, one number only. Can you see how to fix it in less than three spins, you will do rather well.
It's bait for a scam. Do not fall for it.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 18, 2013, 04:13:03 PM
It's bait for a scam. Do not fall for it.
We got quite a few entrepreneurs here Sam, and you use to have nothing against that. So the point is we can sell things as software and even other things and it should meet that it is to do. Systems which claim you will for sure win should never be allowed to be sold here. I can maybe tolerate some sell a system which claim it is ensure to lose. I have some of those, but I do not ask for fee. ::)
"Systems which claim you will for sure win should never be allowed to be sold here."
Ralph
I have made videos in which I could be accused of making a commercial for Normy and Stef/Nick and the ExcelBot. I have nothing against free enterprise. I hope both sell their products as I have faith in them--the men and the products.
What ala blah blah blah is selling are systems he claims to the the "Holy Grail" but he will not allow testing or offer a guarantee--and the wants $5,000 or 5,000 Euro.
Ralph, I'm telling the truth, believe it don't! More than one person has told my via phone, Skype or e-mail that this guy tried to scam them. Could I print the e-mails? Sure. But if they want their name in this, they can come forward. I don't "out" people--unless I've paid them and they won't produce!
Then he comes on here asking people to figure something out for him. Then he'll be selling that if anyone does figure it out.
I am waiting for Victor and the mods answer.
Sam
before playing one number straight up i have my head examined . never did and never will. i am not a dork benefitting the casino.
ND
Quote from: NathanDetroit on February 18, 2013, 04:59:46 PM
before playing one number straight up i have my examined . never did and never will. i am not a dork benefitting the casino.
ND
This is a vague answer! All we put on net stays as long the civilisation stand. I have seen much of your postings. changes over time, and that's is not bad it may or may be some improvements.
Quote from: Ralph on February 18, 2013, 05:07:17 PM
This is a vague answer!
From what I've seen NathanDetroit is the king of vague!
Spike and Gizmo come close, but ND leads the way. :)
why spill the beans so the scammers can have field day. play close to the vest. leave the braggado to bullshitters . plenty around here too .
billion, you got a problem with that. you are a nobody in my book.
why don`t you take loooooong hike on short pier
Quote from: NathanDetroit on February 18, 2013, 09:27:13 PM
billion, you got a problem with that. you are a nobody in my book.
why don`t you take loooooong hike on short pier
A wet nobody now! :'(
time has arrived to leave the asylum to the inmates .
Sook.
Hey Guys,
When I came to this forum and saw the general flow of it, I got that "this is just another bunch of frustrated gamblers" with no one to offer anything workable. The most read methods are "7 on 1" and "pattern breaker". Nobody ever addresses the real issues like handling variance or any innovative MM or any betselection which can be more logical than just betting anything randomly. Those who understand randomness and probability very well could not offer any real world solution.
I know things will remain same and even after the forums will run for 20 more years, no one will come closer to anything near perfect. Do you feel that by writing all these so called "systems" you are helping the community? You are rather creating newer fallacies and making losers lose even more.
I know that it is very tough to digest that someone is having a true solution or what we call "Holy Grail" considering the volatile nature of game specially roulette.
My signature is the essence of my HG. I can't win every session but I am a winner overall and that is sufficient for me to call it an HG.
Anybody can win if he understands how to handle extreme variance, how to use MM cleverly and where to surrender. Whenever I tried to talk about them, kids got upset and said this is a scammer. Why serious talks that can solve issues? We prefer to lose than discuss difficult aspects of the game. A few said they won't play difficult sessions at all, as if they have a choice. A few said, it is not possible to do anything. Lots of noises and techniques but nothing pursuable.
Is there any strategy or solution that you openly shared here?
MG aka albertojonas,
If you can recall, I had a special section meant for me in rf.cc : http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?board=32.0 (http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?board=32.0)
What happened to all those? The forum was sold and my section was dumped and I was banned despite voting in my favor. My exclusive section had only exclusive info and that was the most successful private section, if you see viewership and positive debates and no private section ever formed by Victor for any individual could reach those heights.
This forum's sale-exclusive section deletion and my banning made me think that it is futile to contribute your best in such spaces, which can be sold and a scammer can delete all those fearing threat to his so called cheating devices. Further, I know that what is being written as "systems" on these public forums are nothing else but either raw material or brainstorming ideas or copy+paste of published stuffs from somewhere. Nobody talks of really workable methods which he himself plays.
I started my private forum thinking I will have an exclusive group that will really help each other in forming the best. I was wrong again. People again started copy+paste. A few started talking of Martingale as ultimate remedy.
I only believe in technical debates that can bring about something which is not already there, like this one. You can see that there is absolutely no positive input.
Everyone will have a true holy grail if the present query be answered but I am sure it will not be done. Nobody will even attempt to do that honestly.
The forum is full of those who can copy+paste stuffs or pull legs of each other or suggest Martingale as the ultimate strategy.
Buddy,
I appreciate that you at least tried to input your best but sadly it won't work in most of the situations. If you try L/W thing with your progression, u can try this: http://betselection.cc/general-discussion/albalaha's-open-challenge-can-anyone-beat-the-worst/ (http://betselection.cc/general-discussion/albalaha's-open-challenge-can-anyone-beat-the-worst/)
Start from spin no. 1001 and play till 2000, if u can get any positive results.
Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on February 21, 2013, 08:16:21 AM
Hi Pal.
Well it's not my best, but you might be right that it won't work. Not with 1/-1 over rounds of 36.
But I suppose I could spend a bit of time and figure out a more suitable /- equation that gives this wL D'Alambert a fighting chance.
I have done rather well using one straight up. Run one until it hit, and add 1. No reduction until la plus. It is coded in the free bot as well.
Run about 50000 spins before a loss of 50000, but had got far more before. I even manage the worse sleeper of 1008 spins.
Marshall
Are you a marshal like Marshal Dillon on "Gunsmoke"?
"Howdy, ma'am. I'm Marshal Big Bell and I come for to clean this town up. Now, what really goes on upstairs?"
Sam
Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on February 21, 2013, 11:30:20 AM
That could get scary if the target number does a few rip van winkles.
We must set the limit, I used 50.00 and 0.1, It is not scary as we never put any such money at risk. You can be 1000 back and a hit on10 chips will make it more than a third back. The play can cluster, and getting them in a short run, makes up from 1000 and more.How ever we play, it is a risk everything goes terrible bad. It happen soon or later, if later we are winning.
Quote from: MarignyGrilleau on February 20, 2013, 08:31:22 PM
Is there any strategy or solution that you openly shared here?
I am not albertojonas... :scared:
Ralph,
Oscar Grind is not very good progression as you seem to be awestruck with that. Oscar Grind works on a presumption that if initial delays come in a betselection, later it will come in clusters. When gaps are big between one hit to another, it only fools up increasing bets.
MBB,
check another thousand spins.
Quote from: albalaha on February 22, 2013, 03:45:26 AM
Ralph,
Oscar Grind is not very good progression as you seem to be awestruck with that. Oscar Grind works on a presumption that if initial delays come in a betselection, later it will come in clusters. When gaps are big between one hit to another, it only fools up increasing bets.
MBB,
check another thousand spins.
All progressions increase the bets, and you must assume something. There are still not any way to do it 100% safe, that's proving impossible. In roulette you win simple if your numbers hit, no rocket science at all. The assumption the hits will ofthen increase after a deviation is not anything which must happen, but tests shows it do quite often. We have very few ways except this to use.
It is actually not Oscars grind if you have a smaller progression on straight up, as it is not a target to grind. Oscars grind try to win just one chip, and is used at bets with lower pay outs. They who looks for a system making sure winning will be looking forever.
Trying to do that with pen and paper, which supercomputers and sharper brains has failed to do. A computer can beat the best chess players, but never a random game.
We can win if we happen to avoid the bad runs, which can happen, but skill has a very low part of it. The statement roulette can not be beaten is in a way true, meaning if a lot of players use the best way any can find out, some will still lose. The bank will absolute make a profit. So however you play, you win buy luck, the stream of numbers suit the way you try. A better method will help to archive winnings, for a while, you move the risks from every spin to a longer series, and can be lucky to delay a loss until you won more.
The same rule as for the spins, can be calculated for players in the longer run they lose in average of the HE, but the spread is like a bell curve, at one end heavy losers in the middle moderat losers and later smaller winners and at the other end a few wins very much. We have very small messures with which we can change that. Anybody can simulate players in a computer and find the result stands, the bank win always, and most of the money is distributed between players, and far from equal.
I am not here to talk of philosophy. Which progression can handle 21 Ws in 1000 spins in the best possible manner, upon one straight up number? Oscar Grind is in no way playable for such cases. Unless you are lucky enough to get hits at smaller intervals, it is suicidal.
Quote from: albalaha on February 22, 2013, 07:19:18 AM
I am not here to talk of philosophy. Which progression can handle 21 Ws in 1000 spins in the best possible manner, upon one straight up number? Oscar Grind is in no way playable for such cases. Unless you are lucky enough to get hits at smaller intervals, it is suicidal.
21 in 1000 spins is a common outcome, but you can see zero, and you can see a lot more. We can not handle them all in exactly 1000 spins, we have to finish the session, and that can be less or take 1000 or more spins. I have had from zero to 55 in a 1000. I have handled sessions with various numbers of hits, and not even half are 21 hits. One foot in ice (0) and the other in boiling water(100) is an average of 50 isn't it! There is variance. I am not sure you got the way I use to play it. I passed 50000 spins so it is not more suicidal than other ways. It depends always of the stream of numbers, which we never know before, even if we test billions of times. RH has done a lot of tests using silly betselections (by purpose), and shown they can be profitable and passing 10000 of spins. The problem with testers is they judged after testing not after what we should know before.I think it is possible to find a way to get sure winnings if we had known there is 21 hits, in all the variants, but it is not the case in half the play. If think I have never lost if I got at least that.
21 is not a parameter, it is an example of worse session for a particular number. Oscar Grind doesn't work in such cases and you can check yourself in my open challenge. You have L/W to see that. Let other people try with newer ideas.
Quote from: albalaha on February 22, 2013, 09:01:31 AM
21 is not a parameter, it is an example of worse session for a particular number. Oscar Grind doesn't work in such cases and you can check yourself in my open challenge. You have L/W to see that. Let other people try with newer ideas.
I do not play as you got it, I do not think you even read the postings. And I have never claimed as you do, a method will for sure win.
I do have some play which could stand your worse case, I say could, it is not sure. I have shared it to some here.
I have read a lot of what your post on the net recent years, so I do not think you have to look for more. ::)
Ralph,
I know you have contributed a lot here, specially by creating your bv bot and giving that to free. This is my last piece of research. I am working on handling the worst bet. It is but natural that if u can beat the worst performing betselections, u have won the game itself. I am telling one thing very frankly, whatever is being taken as "systems" on various forums are merely a different style of playing. None have any in-built advantage or any logic. If you can beat the worst, u can beat anything.
Quote from: albalaha on February 22, 2013, 10:11:40 AM
Ralph,
I know you have contributed a lot here, specially by creating your bv bot and giving that to free. This is my last piece of research. I am working on handling the worst bet. It is but natural that if u can beat the worst performing betselections, u have won the game itself. I am telling one thing very frankly, whatever is being taken as "systems" on various forums are merely a different style of playing. None have any in-built advantage or any logic. If you can beat the worst, u can beat anything.
I am afraid there is ignorance and just lack of logic in your ambitions. Logic it is not possible. Ignorance you have such ambitions.
It can be fun to try to invent the impossible. Search Youtube for free energy, and similar. The problem is when claim you have done it, and try to market is as such.
In a way we all try to avoid losses, but we are aware we can't do it 100%, nobody can even with a research budget of billions, it is tried in all environment including NASA and universities. Still many think it can be done using a pen and paper and may be a PC.
I think the realistic target is to try to minimize the risks, they will never be zero. If it were possible to find a loophole, the casino will defend it by other rules, so do not publish your findings :-X
You don't need loopholes to be in plus. It seems you are not aware of my "extreme variance control technique" which can take care of monster side of variances. I am only talking of limited variance which can be handled with certain progressions. Since u do not play system but a random bet with oscar grind so you are not expected to contribute anything here. Please let others speak up, if u can't.
Quote from: albalaha on February 22, 2013, 11:04:04 AM
It seems you are not aware of my "extreme variance control technique" which can take care of monster side of variances.
Al,
It seems I'm also not aware of your "extreme variance control technique" either.
Where might one find this link or thread so I can bring myself up to speed on it?
AD
Quote from: albalaha on February 22, 2013, 11:04:04 AM
You don't need loopholes to be in plus. It seems you are not aware of my "extreme variance control technique" which can take care of monster side of variances. I am only talking of limited variance which can be handled with certain progressions. Since u do not play system but a random bet with oscar grind so you are not expected to contribute anything here. Please let others speak up, if u can't.
Its called RFH and nobody has found a way 2 deal with that other than accept the losses. ;D
Quote from: ADulay on February 22, 2013, 03:55:44 PM
Al,
It seems I'm also not aware of your "extreme variance control technique" either.
Where might one find this link or thread so I can bring myself up to speed on it?
AD
Same here. Interested.
Quote from: ADulay on February 22, 2013, 03:55:44 PM
Al,
It seems I'm also not aware of your "extreme variance control technique" either.
Where might one find this link or thread so I can bring myself up to speed on it?
AD
Ad,
refer to my "exclusive section" at our private forum. There is a topic called" how to fight the worst enemy of gambling-variance".
It would be wonderful -- truly wonderful -- if you could describe it on this forum.
Perhaps in a dedicated thread?
I am against copy+paste thing but if Victor says, I can put it in a new topic in money management. People just do not want to learn anything which can really be useful in real play. Only copy-paste of others thoughts.
Quote from: albalaha on February 23, 2013, 07:45:18 AM
Ad,
refer to my "exclusive section" at our private forum. There is a topic called" how to fight the worst enemy of gambling-variance".
Just went over and checked. Seems I'm no longer a member of the "exclusive section".
Oh well.
AD
Ad,
I have disabled views of all peeptoms members from my exclusive club's exclusive contents after warning. All gathered there to attend my free tutorials. I did it yesterday and notified all by emails. It was meant for co-operation from all and sharing among each other. When I ask to assist in something here you ask "what will he get for all this". So, what will I get to share my exclusive ideas and researches?
I will reorganize the exclusive club of mine with handpicked people who can contribute with fresh ideas or who can help me in further researches.
Quote from: albalaha on February 27, 2013, 06:56:19 AM
I will reorganize the exclusive club of mine with handpicked people who can contribute with fresh ideas or who can help me in further researches.
I believe what you're looking for is a "focus group" and not a forum for discussion.
Good luck and here's hoping you'll be able to pull it off. As you've seen, attempting to run a weak forum with uncommitted people is a struggle, at best.
AD
MBB,
To be in my focus group, we need to have a serious chat first.
Captain Adulay,
I never intended to create a forum/public forum but rather a "club" of skilled and experienced players and researchers. I know you are skilled and experienced both but non-sharing is something I can't afford to have in my elite group. You could not share even a single method which you play yourself in your entire membership tenure.
Quote from: Albalaha on February 28, 2013, 02:23:31 AM
Captain Adulay,
I know you are skilled and experienced both but non-sharing is something I can't afford to have in my elite group. You could not share even a single method which you play yourself in your entire membership tenure.
Well, I did share. Even stated EXACTLY what method I was playing.
Nobody believed me.
This is not my problem.
Thanks for the original offer though.
AD
You are still a member but viewership disabled for all members of exclusive sections, for now.