Laying the horse is not the same as backing the horse some say. Some say the skills required are different, the approach required is different and the money required is different. There are similarities but at the same time there are differences. I will try to pull together my thoughts around laying and my attempt at this stream of horse racing in this topic. I am sure there are successful layers in this forum and there will be an odd one who will pitch in.

What is my understanding of laying
First of all I thought I will get my understanding of laying right. Laying is when you bet for an outcome to lose. Lets say there are 4 horses in a race. If you bet for horse 1 to win it is called backing. If you bet for a horse 1 to lose, it is called laying.

How does the payout work
Frankel is a horse which is running a race as a favourite on odds of 1.28. This means that if you back the horse for winning a 100 bet will return you 28. However if you want to lay Frankel, then the reverse happens with the same equation. You will pay out 28 if the horse wins and win 100 if the horse loses

See another example. Horse Chookies lass is running the race at 4.0. If you back this horse with 100, you will gain 300 if the horse wins. However if you want to lay, the reverse works. A win will result in you losing 300 and a loss of this horse will result in you netting 100.

A simple formula is dividing from 100 the odds and then subtracting from 100 to see the amount you will invest.  For example for odds of 4.0

100/4.0 = 25 the amount you will win
100- 100/4.0 = 75 the amount you will lose if your selection wins.

I hope my understanding is right.

This is my humble attempt at doing parlays in Sports betting. I have a capital of 100units.  I will try to parlay them over a series of continuous bets are really short odds. I don't know whether it will work, but this is an idea i have been pondering over some time and it has worked well on paper so far. It has great potential though.

So it goes like this, the whole capital is divided into 10 parts, each carrying out its own parlay. We finish once we have reached 1000 over the capital that we started with or when the whole capital is wiped off.  Has anyone done something similar in the past? Feedback, views most welcome.

Italy v Azerbaijan - Italy to win - 1.12
Italy v Azerbaijan - Over 1.5 goals - 1.14
Roger Federer v Julien Benneteau - Roger Federer to win - 1.2
Novak Djokovic v David Ferrer - Novak Djokovic to win - 1.13
Belgium v Andorra - Over 2.5 goals - 1.17

The purpose of this post is not to tip, but to gain feedback and track progress on a specific way of approaching betting with a slight twist, which is long proven to be a losing way to approach.

Any one here do their own betting sheets before the races and compare with market to do betting?

For someone who is looking a bit more than numbers, please see here. Disclaimer - This is all written by a novice punter who has just started showing interest in this space. I will write as and when i like (not being rude, but just setting the expectations around managing my time


Bangor 2nd October - Going Good
For novices like me, it is a left handed fairly sharp track. Imagine a cirle and when the horses run anticlockwise in it, it is called left handed and it has sharp bends shaped like a triange rather than a circle. Jason Maguire and Richard johnson have done well in this circuit and the champion jockey Mccoy has has more wins but albeit lost a lot of short favourites making him the top loser in top jockeys. Donald McCain and Charlie Longsdon are the trainers to note. One looking for form should look for horses which has done well in Fontwell, Southwell, Kelso and Aintree. Front runners usually do well here.

Race favourites have a good P/L ratio in maidens here,  however when it comes to handicaps, outright favourites are a disaster. Joint favourites seem to do well in handicaps and 2nd favourites normally well in handicap hurdles.

Analysis paralysis
We start at 1420 Juvenile hurdles 2m1f. With four horses running there are two that stand out clearly. Final countdown and Starchitect. Final countdown has started hurdling now for a very successful yard. Starchitect was an expensive purchase and the trainer has a very good record in juvenile contests. With Jason on the saddle, it is fair to trust the favouritism.

Then we move on to 1450 Novice chase. Very small field of 3 horse. Market is speaking in favour of Gevrey Chambertin with him dropping significantly in classes. Very short price. But buck Magic is not disgraced either and trainer and jockey are on fire. Winter is their favourite month with chases, and my money is on buck magic.

Field gets bigger as we get to 3:25 handicaps. Interesting field with lots of changing hands. This is a favourite field for Tidal way having won the last two years but howeer with Noel Fehily both the times. Having a had a break to return to the favourite event he is partnering with Kielan Woods and I don't have a great feelign about it. I am eyeing Stonemadforspeed who has enjoyed a win 2 months back with McCoy albeit in a longer race. With John and Rhysflint combination eying this one entry in bangor travelling all the way from South wales, its worth a punt.

Moving on to the 4:00 handicaps, Kings grace has been in form and consistent for quite some time now, but Jason has not had lots of success riding it as Henry brooke did. But looking deep, Kings grace has a 4-4 result in Bangor which is incredible. Another flutter won earlier this month but in an easier field and doesn't make much of an appeal. The third on the field is very interesting. From a jockey trainer combination that is consistent in chases, consistent in bangor, it is interesting they bring this horse to bangor. With the kind of mark the horse is in I will be happy to put my money on it.


1630 is goig to be really unpredictable. Bonne fee is seemingly unbeatable even with triple penalty. Whatdoesthefox say has won in bangor earlier around similar mark but missed out twice since and should fall within reach. Another interesting entry is from John berry whose only entry in bangor few years back in Extreme conviction was a success who is a horse of similar rating. Russian link is no extreme conviction and historically his family owned horses have not shown much of a result. Sassanova is another one to look at. Fallen down the grades after soundly beaten in a bumper on debut, and charlie and tom pairing up, with the yards jumpers fairing well in novice hurdles, am going to back Sassanova.

Closing on National hunt flat race at 5:00 and i haven't yet got the grips on this type of race, so letting it pass, but will be watching it.


For the lazy ones
2:20 - Starchitect
2:50 - BuckMagic
3:25 - Stonemadforspeed
4:00 - Qoubilai
4:30 - Sassanova

Hi does anyone know a place from where I can download horse racing cards in excel format?

See the screenshot below.
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Why would any one place backing bets at 1.01? What could be the strategy behind it. Is there any means the odds will ever reach 1.01 before the race actually starts? I thought all unmatched bets will be cleared out when the race starts - Is it not the case. I know there are lots of questions, but the simple question that i am tryign to get an answer is why would anyone place bets on 1.01 and keep it there before the race actually starts? What could be the strategy behind it. Any help is much appreciated.

Is it relevant at all? We know that regression analysis is widely used for prediction and forecasting, but we also know that application of this in small effects or cause-effect based on observational data, which is what practical application of this in roulette, can give misleading results. Then are we not setting ourselves for failure by mapping these principles into roulette? Strange thought, but I thought very relevant for a casual gambler and math guyz alike.

Why is a shoe important in Baccaratt. I see that we never get to the end of the cards, we can't do card counting then why is a shoe important?

It is. Having thought about it multiple times over the last weeks, I can see that these two completely different monsters.  While the basic principle and game is the same, the difference in  pace, the units involved and above all the ambience impacts your game so much that you need to have two different strategies for online (whether live or rmg) and b&m. 

While I would never think twice before going 100 u on a 10p base, i might do it twice if I my base is 5£.  I don't know about others when there are 100£ units flying on the table it takes a bit of mind games before I place a 5£ bet.  I don't have that outside influence when I am playing online at home.  I have to master the art of writing notes in a paper amidst people putting their hands over my head to place bets while the computer does the work at home. It is different and both are satisfying in their own way. 

I went to hippodrome again today.  Thought I will try some of Martin Blakey today.  As the initial fear has gone, I went straight to the drinks table, ordered a coke and started watching.  Suddenly something strange happened. On 25£ min table there was a string of 5 lows and a high followed by 10 lows and a high.  I don't know what took me, before I could think I was there putting 30£ cash on low. Crazy and came 28. What a start. 

Everything went for a toss. I was playing strategies that I never planned to play.  Played in 4 breaks and ended up converting 200£ into 490£ and two cokes and a beef skewer.  This is not me and never did I intend it to be. I wanted to have a look around hippodrome, but that's now for a different day. 

Thing is people talk about discipline and I thought am a lot self disciplined. But that one hour changed my view on myself. It is a different ball game.

Televisions are crying - The most watched football league in the world is back. Every street I can see posters between warring BT and sky on showing who is showing the most exciting matches. Back pages are filled with excitement around the millions exchanged in the biggest monopoly played in real time by millionaire clubs. Amidst all this, there is a fan who is waiting for the weekend excitement to commence again. 10 matches every weekend, well almost.  So what's giving me value in this opening weekend?

Not always does the promoted sides valued high in the market. Foxes are valued really high in the market and considering they won over Everton in the friendly with a solitary goal, market is just is saying so. But that leaves us with a great value for Everton to win at 2.42. It is going to be a game of experience vs speed. Pure adrenaline vs mature heads. I am backing maturity to prevail in the end and will be going for Everton to win at 2.42 and HT/FT of Everton/draw at 6.2

Then comes the lay of the week. Fresh from the community shield glory, can they sustain the momentum against the side who had a fairy tale ending last season. They might. Just. In the match against Brentford which the palace lost, I could see glimpses of what pulis is working on. New signing frazier may not start, but I doubt whether it influences the outcome in any way. Eventhough Wenger has tried filling his weaknesses, I still believe they have at least 3 or 4 games to go to shine as  a team and predict an upset. Lay Arsenal at 1.3

What fun is betting without accumulators. Opening week spreads the red carpet on a perfect accumulation for MU, Chelsea and Liverpool all to win at 2.52. This is value and if someone is not doing this then it is a betting crime. Key players coming out at Southampton against a strong Liverpool side, a struggling Swans against van Gaal inspired reds in their home ground and a promoted team against the Mourinho might. Worth taking a chance, even though the struggles of Chelsea against minnows are well documented from last season. Accumulator for all three to win at 2.52.

Have fun.

A Big lie – goes the title of the famous blog by author R D Ellison. Often in my school days I used to hear the conspiracy by Americans on their claims for the first to reach the moon. A Big lie said one side and a great achievement said the other. Warren commission concluded that Oswald was the lone gunman behind JFK incident and there is a section that says it is a big lie. Elvis death in 1977 is a big lie to a section. And that is the wonder of the sixth sense we hold. Arguments. Opinions. Theories. Philosophies. Beliefs.

Beliefs have a great part in making a man what he is. And I believe no one is an exception to this rule. Some believe things as it is said, some believe in what they see and some believe in things which are proved. Again different beliefs when it come what is to be believed. Roulette and gambling is not an exception especially with loads and loads of things lying in the shades of grey. Last few months, I have been lucky enough to get introduced to this world of roulette, the beliefs and disbeliefs, agreements and disagreements, learnings and un-learnings. It interests me and will keep on interesting me for days to come.

One such believe is 13 and 31 and their affinity. I have seen posters with strong belief to this affinity. Some accept that it is illogical, but still believe the affinity owing to what they have seen in the past.  Irrespective of whether I look at American or European wheels, they are placed distant from each other to qualify for a neighbour bet. Apart from both being black, odd and falling in the first column, I can't see any similarities from a wheel or table perspective. So I decided to experiment. 1000 spins from Wiesbaden, 1000 from my own collection that I played in view casino and 1000 from random.org. Affinity was tested against 5 spin sequence and 10 spin sequences. Affinity of 31 and 13 vs 31 and 12 vs 31 and 32. Surprisingly 31 vs 12 resulted in a profit situation as opposed to losses for the other two. Does that mean 31 and 12 is a better bet compared to 31 and 13?

My conclusion and belief is one on one, slot on slot, spin on spin the outcomes are independent. 31 and 12 is no different from 31 and 13. Will be very interested to hear what others think.

A leap.

I have always passed through the covent garden station.  I have been to the Leicester square a number of times.  Always a thought comes out about getting into one of those inviting casinos on the way.  But the fear of unknown has always stopped from entering them. 

Friday was different.  Over the last few months I have learnt a lot about roulette here and at betforum And it has brought in a new found confidence. Playing at viewcasino on an experiment following Bally has given a better exposure with real money bets.  That confidence let me enter into the hippodrome just outside Leicester square station.  No membership needed was a treat to my eyes. Stepped into it for the first time and said hi to the big man standing outside.  Handing over the bags at reception, felt like checking into one of those posh hotels. Then it was absolute darkness.  Is it deliberate that the lighting was dim to suggest what was being practiced here is what someone might consider as the dark art of gambling.  But the atmosphere was riveting and felt like in a market but a bit more organised chaos. 

Cente of the hall was 4 tables of roulette surrounded by black jack tables and didn't notice anything beyond it. There was still the fear of unknown masking my eyes.  Didn't know where to start.

Then there were four letters that caught my eye. C A S H.  Had 300£ on me.  Gathered all my courage went to the cashier and asked for chips worth 150.  Came the question cash or card.  Cash I whispered.  He said buy at the table.  Dang. I went into the shell again.  Back to tables with the thought of how and who to ask. I saw something which I could t understand but it was a welcoming sight. There was a table with a lady dealer and no one was playing.  Next moment I was standing in front of her Asking for chips. Then there was a reply which nearly made me go back and get out.  She cried you better use the other tables as this table has min bet size of 10£.  Well that explained why there was no one at the table. Somehow gathered All my courage and asked the dealer in the next table chips for 100, before taking a walk back to cash desk and denied buying chips for credit card without membership.  And hurray, my journey started.

First 5 outside bets, flat bet winning all give in a row. Shifted to dozen and won it but was warned for the min outside bet to be less than 10.  Ended a 20 min session turning 100 to 150.  Wanted to play more, but had an appointment at covent garden in half hour and had to leave. 

Will be back hippodrome.  I like the sound of balls rolling and some one real standing in front of me saying no more bets and out in frenzy popping out so many hands with chips to place at the dying seconds.  Characters throwing black 25£ chips at dealers calling for nbers on neighbour bets.  Roller coaster emotions.  Just love it and can relate with people here saying play only at b&m. 

One thing I can't figure out though is an explanation behind the large number of Chinese women in late Middle Ages. 

Beat the wheel,

There are two ways in which you need to think if you need to get a HG or if you need to lead someone closer to HG.

Find an edge -This is through bet selection. This is the simplistic and agreeable way to find a HG but very complicated to find an edge.  Edge could be obtained either through causes which are physical or mathematical. It is questionable whether such an edge could be found, but if you are after HG then nothing should be ruled out as the world is full of possibilities.

Progression - If you need to find one, and if you are relying on this to beat every possible LW combination, it is a humongous task. Just doing 3-4 sets of LW will not help. It is easy to say that i have got 240 wins and 260 losses in flat betting of ECs and hence with a good progression i will be able to win such a bet selection. Reality is no. Unless your progression is able to address long losing streaks and streaks with less distribution of two or more wins in a row, you are defining a progression for failure. You could define stop losses and address variances, but it will take you no where.

I am from the section that believes in creating an edge to find a HG and to find that edge mathematically. So all these concepts around clump theory etc interests me. If you ask in a thread how to solve a LW with a progression, while the subject is explaining how to create an edge, you are not going to reach anywhere. It is as if going into a jewellery store asking for nails. He is not going to help.