Our members are dedicated to PASSION and PURPOSE without drama!

Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Messages - KungFuBac

#1
Alrelax's Blog / Re: Don’t Think Just Do It!
Yesterday at 01:47:50 PM
alrelax above (in part):

"...
There were hands such as the following ones I will write out.

P=2/face B 10/7 and P pulls a 6. Everyone on bankers.
P=4/9 B face/6 and P pulls a 4.  Everyone on bankers.

Everyone switched to players.
P=10/8 (of course quick hi-5s) B turns over 10/9.

Most all the serious bettors switched back to bankers.
P=9/8. B=5/A.

Most stayed bankers.  P=9/9. B=9/8.

Then hands such as: P=face/4. B=face/face. P pulls a 6 and bankers pulls a 10.  Most were on bankers and that, "darn can't even beat a zero" was said out loud in frustration.

Everyone on players with large wagers.
P=5/9. B=2/10. Players turn over a 7.  Bankers turn over a face card.  Another frustrating hand for most...".



I have been there/done that and agree its certainly frustrating. Its an emotional killer when say P has '"1 and all B has to do is beat "1" and fails. I get a brief moment of thinking "even a fifth grader could beat a 1,lol. Im thiking "Cmon dealer" as Im already counting the wager as a W. Then nada. Reminds me of a frequent saying I hear at the tables: "Got an eight don't yet celebrate".


H-Money says, "let's do this" pretty loud.  Throws in the $1,200 I gave him and he had a few hundred left in chips.

I do not do this though Im glad it worked for him "this time".

I see people do it all the time though. Fight a tough battle for hours and then due to fatigue go all in or parlay all net profits for that one final "Sayanora" , "Im going home wager".


Good post
#2
Hi all,

Re: This aforementioned Pi coin Alb mentions above. I had never heard of it(the crypto not Pi) and haven't researched it yet.

Great name/marketing opportunity. They (Pi network) didn't ask me, however, I would have made the Kiosk with a Gold-plated face board at top of kiosk. Maybe made it the shape of a pie (with a 1/6 slice removed)...etc. They could make their token a gold coin with the Pi symbol (Similar to bitcoin except replace the "B" with the "Pi" symbol. I would have launched it on March 14(3/14), maybe they did and I didn't notice. I believe there is a large international club (Pi club) that have a national (maybe international) membership that has an annual meeting and celebration each year. Maybe a good group to pitch it to as some would sign up just for fun. Just some quick thoughts. I wish them the best of luck.


Continued Success,

#3
General Discussion / Re: Gambling Quotes
March 23, 2024, 02:19:28 AM
"Gambling with cards or dice or stocks is all one thing. It's getting money without giving an equivalent for it."  – Henry Ward Beecher
#4
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: cryptocurrency and me
March 23, 2024, 02:15:22 AM
Bitcoin at 62,900 today 3/22/24. By the time some of you on the other side of the globe read this it may be at 73k or 53k. As I've mentioned in past few weeks, I have been adding positions in BITI(Proshares SHORT Bitcoin Futures). So obviously it moves opposite BTC direction. That is if BTC goes up my BITI shares decrease, and vice versa.  Today I was able to unravel 20% (1 of 5 tier levels) of total shares @ an approx. +13.5% ROI.
My motto: "The trend must end".  Just like in gambling. :)

I'm still underwater on the initial tier purchases. I was optimistic in past couple weeks that I could add two additional tier levels if Bitcoin euphoria continued and BTC went to 85k levels. I actually hypothesized that once BTC went through 55k without much of a retracement that it could then move upward to 85k range before retracement <=30%.

*I saw a stat this week that new first-time BTC buyers in past six months had an avg entry price @ 54k. So, we may actually see a retracement to that level as a temporary basal level.

**I also saw several weeks ago when BTC was in 40k--50k range. It regressed -10--12k over a few days and that only 3% of BTC owners were responsible for the move.

__________________________________________________________

Poster above: "Those considering themselves smarter than Blackrock putting $3 Billions in it should introspect a bit more..."

    The U.S. Government agreeing to grant approval for BlackRock's ETF is confirmation the U.S. Gov is wanting to have some control over the BTC market. I'm still not clear on exactly what the USgov plans with BTC market. I suspect BlackRock has been quietly buying BTC at very low prices in past 6-8 years(with US Gov knowledge and support).

Blackrock is currently the largest manager of U.S. Gov pension/retirement. BR manages approx. 12 trillion of U.S. Gov retirement pensions. If one has worked for the U.S. Gov it is likely that Blackrock manages your retirement directly or indirectly. I like them relative to most financial managers as they only charge 0.76% management fee. Plus, they will continue managing after one retires. Many funds mgrs. do not allow(without addendum fees or penalties). Which is really good. This fee % is often overlooked.

They also offer one of the lowest management fees for their recent ETF Vs other ETFs such as Grayscale. I suspect these upfront fees is one of the main reasons we are now seeing all these recent ETF offerings from numerous investment companies.

Re:ETFs

In two consecutive days last week Grayscale saw 640 million /400+Million of outflowing funds from their ETFs as recent investors unloaded. In two days, Grayscale lost 40% of their total Bitcoin holdings they had accumulated in past decade. Over the past week they saw over 12 billion $ in outflow.

    *I'm starting to hear a few of the early and very large bitcoin advocates acknowledge that BTC is not suitable for a currency.




Best of luck to all bit coiners,
#5
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
March 23, 2024, 01:18:50 AM
Hi Asym

In the post #1011 above you say:

"...There are a couple of principal reasons to explain such streaks (and other patterns) propensity:

a) the general factor causing baccarat streaks to be shorter than at a perfect 50/50 proposition;

b) the finiteness of long streaks distribution, especially after coming out by a consecutive fashion.
  ..."

On (a) do you mean relative to a coin flip or do you mean in comparison with "even chance ish" games like line bets in Craps?? Both?  Neither??

Thx in advance,kfb
#6
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
March 18, 2024, 02:34:01 AM
Thank you AsymBacGuy for not only your prompt response but also for such detail. Posts like this are beneficial.

Re: 2iar. A couple weeks ago I played a rare shoe that produced 14 consecutive P 2iars (e.g., yPPyyPPyyy,..etc). Meaning 14 consecutive PP turned to B. There were a couple of single "P" columns within this fourteen 2iar streaks but no PP went PPP.

After the 14-streak ended PP then went PPP and PPPT as its longest streak. But never produced a PPPP.
B was mostly typical in each column following the PP producing a mix of 1-4 Bs immediately following every PP. Several other strong events were showing too but they didn't have the 100% strike rate for going against the PP. Shoe had 5 Ties.

I did very well as I caught 12 of the 14 PP turns to B. I pressed aggressively through the 7th-8th win (Which was approximately the 8-9th "PP" turn). I was at (Tmax and Tmax+) on the 6th,7th,8th W. I then regressed back to my (base unit +15$) and reduced by -$5 on each succeeding W until the end.

Certainly, one of my better shoes for the month/ I don't recall ever seeing this many (14) consec PP turning to B.


Thx again,
#7
Hi Alb. Interesting proposition. This is probably an excellent time to introduce any /everything crypto related. Since the Bitcoin euphoria doesn't appear to be declining at present 3/16/24. Good luck with it.

As a side note, I also think one has to be cautious in clumping "ALL" cryptos together like it has something to do with Bitcoin. I am guilty myself in calling or referring to cryptos as bitcoin. It reminds me of the name recognition for the soft drink Coke(Coca Cola). Most all soda-type drinks have always benefitted by association. Bitcoin certainly benefits from being the first crypto to the party(And always will,IMO).

Most are not connected in any way, shape, or form to bitcoin. Many have been created as a joke amongst friends. Many of these crypto originators have even made these exact statements from the beginning, yet have received millions of dollars from investors (e.g., Doge,Shibu,...etc). Most cryptos originators are simply playing upon Mans innate desire to gamble and take risks, with proposed potential to get rich quick. Thesis by KungFuBac.

 I noticed that not only are hedge funds and financial industry now pushing out crypto ETFs, but now (Grayscale I think) is proposing a "Mini" crypto ETF as an additional derivative. Of course, anyone investing in these ETFs and or "Mini" ETFs own absolutely (0) Bitcoins.


Best of luck to all crypto investors.




#8
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
March 17, 2024, 02:08:37 AM
Hi Asym. Good topic(singles/doubles clustering). In your post #1001 above you said:

"...Attack #2: singles/doubles clusters vs 3/3+ streaks

This attack studies the average probability to get singles/doubles clusters, meaning we need to get one "fictional" winning hand (that is a single or a double) in order that a s/d pattern will be classified as an "isolated" outcome (1) or a "clustered" outcome (any number superior than 1)....
"

So to clarify you are calling a cluster: A single-double cluster is like PBB or BPP in two consecutive columns on typical tote board??

"OR"

Do you mean a single P cluster is like bbxx P BBxx then very next column is precisely P , then fourth in a row column is BBBX or whatever as long as not a single P???

Thx in advance,



#9
The link to full article is at the bottom. It would be interesting to know where they placed the cutoff for "high-roller". Also, how do "high-rollers" compare with "non high-rollers."

"...Baccarat didn't just perform well in isolated months, it also performed admirably when looking at the Strip's gaming total for 2023. There was a 10.6% increase in table game revenue to $4.1 billion and high-end baccarat accounted for $1.5 billion of this.

This was the Strip's third-highest yearly total ever for baccarat, close to 30% more than in 2022. More than $8.8 billion was bet on baccarat, which was a 13.5% increase from 2022. Furthermore, Strip casinos w
on a total of 16.6% of baccarat bets, the most they have done in the last two decades.  ..."


https://www.baccarat.net/news/las-vegas-strip-benefit-from-increase-in-baccarat-high-rollers/
#10
Baccarat Forum / Re: 7 Fortune 7s Within One Shoe
March 16, 2024, 03:31:27 AM
A lucrative shoe for many. Though I likely would not have profited much from the F7s.

If I recall correctly this is the second high-f7 shoe (6-7 f7s) in the past couple months??

I seldom see 3 F7s in a single shoe. One casino I frequent dealt nine consecutive shoes(accross several days) that had (0) F7s.


Cheers,
#12
General Discussion / Re: A Question about Crypto
March 10, 2024, 05:58:21 AM
Albalaha in post#1 above:

"... Bitcoin etc are alternative currency for the world and I believe it is here to stay. No govt. can eliminate it completely. It has already been accepted worldwide. ... "

I agree it is likely here to stay.

However, only a very few individuals currently own BTC. Though it is not illegal in many countries(i.e., permitted). However, it has only been accepted as a currency in very few(e.g., El Salvador). In China it has been deemed illegal in any form.

IMO the USA will allow it(BTC) to progress, at least in USA and markets controlled by U.S.
Its my opinion there are many underlying factors and parties involved that will have a hand in BTC survival (or its dissolve) and possible worldwide use as a possible standard form of payment transaction.

USA recently approved Blackrock and others Bitcoin ETF. The U.S. Government has a need to control the value of the USD as well as other countries' currencies and other forms of payment. Part of this need is because its imperative the USA props up the USD (or at least as a ratio to other countries' currency's value). I think a country like El Salvador was wise to drop their currency and go with Bitcoin in 2021(they were up over 40% last I checked). It will be interesting going forward to see if other countries try to implement BTC or a similar digital token or payment method as  a replacement for their currency.

The U.S. Gov also likes the idea  of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). The USA is >33Trillion in debt with outrageous inflation. The USA has a need for propping up the USD. Plus in recent years also had to deal with the expansion and objective of the BRICS nations. The BRICS nations are interested in creating a new currency to compete with the US dollar. The BRICS are contemplating a basket of currencies that will allegedly include values from (Gold, Oil, Yuan, Rubles, ...etc) so that countries no longer have to buy/sell with only the USD. Possibly an option for the world to move into digital currency as well and move away from the USD.

Just my opinions / I may very well be incorrect.



Many things to consider for all things crypto.




#13
Hi XXVV

Good to hear from you again/I hope this finds you doing well.


What are your price projections for BTC et al more widely held cryptos??


Thx in advance,

#14
General Discussion / Re: A Question about Crypto
March 10, 2024, 04:42:39 AM
Hi ADulay. Your Bitcoin purchase looks like a great investment.

"...I probably have no reason to sell it and doubt I will ever sell it as my buddies are always telling me how it's going to be worth a real lot of money "in the future"...."

    IMO that logic by early crypto investors is part of the reason BTC has continued escalating. I saw an article a few weeks ago that indicated most (90%) of the early investors from (10-15 yrs. ago) had not sold any, nor bought additional. It also appears some of the whales aren't selling any either. I also read that over 90% of all crypto investors had lost it all or net- . Most early investors in BTC are in the positive with little reason to sell. Similar to AD thoughts above.

Investing in ammo is probably a good way to realize some profits justincase BTC moves south somewhere down the road. I know a couple Bac players that buy ammo/silver bullion as an investment. Im not sure how they profit from the ammo purchases (maybe sell to others at a markup). Maybe use themselves and save because ammo seems to always be increasing in price. ??? I don't really know/haven't asked them.


ADulay in the initial post above:

"... What is the actual PLAN for your crypto "investments"?

Is it merely to make money, as in any gambling endeavor?

Is it to build something for on down the road when retirement looms large?

With your holdings in crypto, can you use it to live on or plan with for future expenditures?

Do you consider it a real investment in the future or merely something to dabble in while stumbling forward in life?  ..."



The few times I have bought Bitcoin(I have never purchased any of the other cryptos), my objective was to buy it/ immediately unload it(100%) into the purchase of Gold/Silver bullion.

My goal was to time it and unload it asap(within days if possible). I was stressed the whole time because of the huge fluctuations. My last investment was when BTC was stuck in a band from 16k--21k. My objective was to make >=7.35% on BTC volatility and buy into this difference between BTC and gold/silver prices. As you know precious metals have extremely high intrinsic value/very low volatility and seldom fluctuate >1% in a day or even a week. I've made between 7.5%--13.5%(Net after fees) everytime I've done this btc-to-gold transaction. Of course, once I utilize my BTC I then have to buy more later on within a range that may research suggests that Im buying into the lower end of this band width. So far I have been spot on with unloading the btc into precious metals in a few days for a net of 7-13% (which is huge when buying precious metals).

However, where I have been wrong, for example, is my last batch of btc was unloaded near 21K. I had bought it just above 17K I believe. My projections after unloading it at that time was that BTC would cycle down to 14K before it would hit 40K. Obviously, it didn't regress to 14k but instead blasted on through 40K with a lot of fluctuation in between, yet it continued upward. I have no intention of buying at current levels and attempting my methodology above.

Re: Precious metals.
Up until a few months ago several of the larger precious metals dealers in USA would accept five cryptos as a form of payment. It seems like it was BTC,Doge,Shib,Eth, and another I don't recall. They often give a 3-4% discount if one pays with eChk,Ach, or wire(but one has a wire fee though). If one uses a Visa it's a fee of 4% or so I believe and any of the above cryptos were the most costly with an additional 1.5--1.75% fee above all other payment methods. They didn't care as they instantly converted to USD and charged an additional fee for the transaction. Obviously eChk or Ach is optimal as no fees and one actually gets a 3-4% discount.

Well, I bought a batch of gold about two weeks ago /when I placed the order with this particular PM company they obviously still accept the typical payment forms. However, they now only accept one crypto (BTC). Plus, now they actually give a 3% discount for btc. They do not accept payment from any other cryptos. I thought this recent policy change was interesting.


Continued Success,
#15
Thx alrelax

"...The non-Macau style games are all using dual deck continuous shuffle decks.  Once the shoe is finished, the dealer removes approximately one deck from the discard tower and washes on the table.  Repeats 8 times.  Then reinserts into the machine.  Removes the other shuffled stack, cuts, burns, places into shoe.

Macau style games are a bit different all over.  But most in Midwest and Vegas are basically, pre shuffled shoe in locked plexiglass container is put on table from floor supervisor, zip lock ID cut & opened, deck cut by player if desired and cards burned.

I have witnessed a few casinos willing to do a quick mini shuffle of those after pre-shuffled shoe opened...."


    Good info. If I recall correctly Asym has mentioned in previous posts that Continuous Shuffle Machines seem to produce different types of streaks vs other shuffle procedures.

*re: shuffles. I think I have mentioned in posts a couple years ago about two instances that made me pause/think about the shuffle.

A) I was the only player at a table in KC, Missouri, USA, as the dealer was opening it for the day. This was probably 15 years or so ago. The dealer kept doing the ribbon on the table, running the shoes back through the shuffler(I don't recall the type), and then doing the ribbon again. The dealer motions to the pit mgr and says "it keeps telling me Jokers are in the deck but they are absolutely not." Finally, the Pit Mgr tells him "F--k it just get the game going. It was one of the most erratic, streaky, and most fantastic shoes I have ever played.

B) I was at a casino on the outskirts of Vegas. I was first player at table an the lady dealer is prepping to open the table/the pit mgr. comes by table telling her to hurry up. She says, "I accidentally did a blackjack shuffle". He says something to the nature of "F--k it just get the game started as we are 15mins late,...etc." Again, a very streaky, erratic, and fantastic shoe and win for me.
I didn't notice the shuffle machine or what she had done prior(preshuffled decks or not,..etc). I still do not understand what she could have meant by saying "I accidentally did a blackjack shuffle". Maybe the shuffler had the option for different types of games shuffle?? Maybe a longer or shorter shuffle time (e.g., 1 min, 2min,5min,..etc).Maybe something she did manually prior to shuffle,..etc.


Continued Success,