Hello guys,

Anyone remember Don Colonne and his Roulette DNA theory. Well I didn't know that he has another publication out now called ''Ruin the City of Las Vegas''

In fact just reading the beginning of this e-book, Don states that his first method failed (I imagine that's the DNA of Roulette one) and this is his new work.

It's free and here it is. Thanks Don. Always appreciated when people share their hard work.

http://www.neworiginalthinking.com/EBOOK-RCLV.pdf

Hello Vic,

To get the ball rolling and enter into the spirit of things, here is my contribution.

Cheers

I was going to title the thread cr@p stats....but that didn't sound right. 

These stats are from different books. Frank Bairstow's classic ''Beat the Casino'' has a good few chapters dedicated to craps with quite a few strategies outlined.

Bairstow recorded 5,000 decisions on the Strip (Las Vegas) and came up with the following.

Runs of 5 or more occurred once in 36 decisions.

Runs of 7 or more occurred once in 140 decisions.

Runs of 8 or more occurred once in 450 decisions.

He went on to say that alternating sequences of comparable length occurred less frequently than repeat sequences, but there were almost equal numbers of such sequences 8 and over in length.

His experience and testing suggested that whenever they were five to seven repeats, or four alternating decisions, that a favourable bet was to bet that these sequences would not continue for a further 3 decisions.

Hello guys,

I am not sure how many of you play or are interested in craps. Anyway, I will upload 50 results at a time for the ''Pass'' and ''Don't'' results.

For anybody that doesn't know, these are 1/1 bets.

Roll a 7 or 11 on the comeout roll and it's a win on the Pass.

Roll a 2 or 3 on the comeout roll and it's a win on the Don't. (A 12 is a push)

Once you have done the comeout roll (which establishes the point) you then have to get that same number again to get paid out on the pass.

Rolling a seven before the initial point number again means a win for the don't. (It's actually not all that complicated once you get your head around it.  )

The ''wincraps'' software is pretty good. You can download a free evaluation copy for testing/learning the game.

cheers

[attachimg=1]

An interesting new concept played at ''Mr Green'' Live Casino.

https://youtu.be/bSWVGx6BwZM

Anyone remember 'Number 6' ? One of my favourite posters of all time.

Anyway, he had this to say way back.

[attachimg=1]

So I am going to show a few things that some of you may already know or have not really noticed.

The Boxer is both a concise and potent progression. It limits the amount of net risk at any given point to a paltry 1 unit, while delivering a hefty 8 unit net profit on just a 4 win window of results. The Boxer predominately employs ''up as you win'', with some use of ''re-betting'' of losing bets.
Winning bets progress 1a to 2a, 2a to 2b, 2b to 3b, and 3c back to 3b. Note: Winning 3b completes the series. Losing bets progress (1a remains at 1a) 2a back to 1a, 2b back to 2a, 3b to 3c and 3c back to 1a to start over.

The Boxer is a good progression for environments that will regularly produce either short streaks, or close knit groups of wins.

Here are a few examples....

1.   -1, +1, +2a, -2b, +2a, -2b, -2a. (2 coups resulting in -2)
2.   -1, -1, +1, +2a, -2b, +2a, +2b, -3b, +3c, +3b. (3 coups resulting in +6)
3.   -1, +1, +2a, +2b, -3b, -3c. (2 coups resulting in -2)
4.   +1, +2a, -2b, +2a, +2b, +3b. (1 coup resulting in +8)

The Law of Disproportionate Occurrence.

Though the dice, the roulette wheel, and the cards ''have no memory'', what they do have is a conscience, and this conscience is called a PROBABILITY MODEL. As most of you probably already know, there exists what are known as probability models for each of the games, and the various bets which make up the games. Where infinity (the long-run) is concerned, these probability models provide that there will be ''x'' number of ''apples'' to ''x'' number of ''oranges''. In general, 50 ''heads'' for every 50 ''tails''. With each game and each probability model, the most common occurrence of any particular event is the first one, or one. The next most common is the second, or two, the third or three, and so on.

However a glaring misconception occurs when considering the short-run in the same manner! Reality unquestionably evidences the existence of a second ''bi-polar'' law, or what is probably more accurately identified as a ''counter-polar'' law that governs the short-run. This phenomenon is witnessed by what we commonly describe as ''things don't happen like they're supposed to''!
For if the law governing the long-run were truly duplicated in the short-run, casino table games would have been extinct long ago. The challenge would be simple because of obviously already knowing for example, that with every 100 spins of the roulette wheel, that there must be exactly 50 red numbers to the 50 black numbers within those specific 100 spins. Well it doesn't quite work that way now does it?

Not only do we know that ''it doesn't work that way'', we can also accurately state that the law of the long-run isn't dictated to prevail in the short-run, and it is in fact extremely rare that it does duplicate itself perfectly in the short-run. Hence, through actual observation of the short-run, the fact is established that the law governing the long-run IS NOT duplicated in the short-run. Therefore, the challenge of the games present this unique paradox: the short-run is inequitable to the long-run!
So when it comes to gaming relationships and probabilities, though the whole is still equal to the sum of its parts, the parts themselves are not simply abbreviated versions of that whole.

Though the Law of Disproportionate Occurrence doesn't need to be academically justified or philosophically rationalized, it commands acknowledgement. There is nothing we can do to fight it or eliminate it. And why should we anyway? If we learn to exploit it instead of challenge it, the results will be greatly to our advantage! Furthermore, this is the same exact law that the casinos now worship to enjoy a ''take'' of 15 to 20 percent plus, instead of just the miniscule 2+/- percent that the ''commission'' would offer by itself. Therefore, once you acknowledge that the casino is nothing more than the host for the games, then and only then, will you be able to accept that the Law of Disproportionate Occurrence is absolutely the ''phenomenon'' which will aid you in taking the casino's money, while they are left void of a defense!

I thought I would start a poll on this after reading one of XXXV's posts.

The poll lasts for 10 days and you can only see the results after you have voted.

Don't be shy and post up your vote and thoughts if you wish.

cheers


p.s. This poll does not take into account any form of Visual Ballistics or using any kind of Device.

I noticed the site has had a bit of an update with some fancy new pictures.

Here is a direct link to the numbers.

http://www.spielbank-wiesbaden.de/index.php?id=101&L=1

The American 00 wheel is fascinating having compared it to the European single 0 wheel.

[attachimg=1]



What I particularly like about it is how 13 of the split bets are practically the opposite of each other on the wheel layout.

You have the following.....

0/00
1/2
5/6
7/8
11/12
13/14
17/18
19/20
23/24
25/26
29/30
31/32
35/36

Now something I have noticed over many years of play is how quite often you can get very distinct spikes showing hot numbers more or less directly opposite of each other.

So using the splits as shown above on the American 00 wheel may present opportunities to construct a bet where you can keep the outlay low.

Here is a 200 spin example I just created.....

[attachimg=2]

200 spins / 18 = 11.11. So a split should have appeared on average 11 times.

So looking at the above picture, I am looking for any of my splits that have appeared over 11 times.

0/00 = 15 times.
11/12 = 16 times.
23/24 = 12 times.
25/26 = 13 times.

So 4 of the 13 splits have performed above expectation.

I will do some further research on this because it looks promising.

cheers

I was reading through some of the Gambler's Glen archives tonight and found this........

[attachimg=1]

Now I am not really sure what to make of this. However it was posted by a guy with a pretty decent reputation at the time.

There are not many Bac shoes online.....I did a quick search and found 2 that A Dulay has posted.

[attachimg=2]

In this one, PPB comes before PBP.

also PBB comes before BBP.

[attachimg=3]

In this one, PPB comes before PBP.

also PBB comes before BBP.

and for the 'trifecta' BPP comes before PPB and PPP.

Weird huh!

The guy in the Gambler's Glen post did quote a load of old mathematical texts he had studied which helped him come to his conclusions.

Anyway, it's something that could be easily looked into by anyone with enough shoes to go through.

Alternatively, if it works, maybe it will work with the corresponding even chance bets.

I am on the case.

cheers

You always seem to get a lot of debates on forums with people saying you can't win against negative expectation games in the long run unless you have some kind of edge.

Normally someone will come along and show you a graph and point out to the - 2.70% after a million spins or so and say there you go.  However you tend to find that these methods used a fixed bet selection all the way through.

Remember the 'Turbogenius' methods....they had big peaks and troughs looking at the graphs. This I believe was the symptom of Turbo using a fixed bet selection (sleepers in his case)

It strikes me that a more fluid bet selection could try to take advantage of all the different scenarios that you are going to encounter over a fixed set of spins and give you a lot more opportunity to come out in front.

You know, I actually question why intelligent people would continually test simulations using fixed parameters when it's obvious that the results are always going to end up negative. All they are proving to themselves is what they already know. (fixed bet selections don't work)

The time could be spent much more wisely looking at the flow of results and trying to work out how you can capture these movements and turn the negative results into something positive.

You can use AP play as an example....

A card counter does not have the advantage every round. He/she bets more when the true count is positive.

A VB player needs to find good conditions to gain an edge.

I am suggesting someone playing roulette can gain a similar type of advantage by adjusting on a spin by spin basis with the characteristics the wheel is displaying at that moment in time. This in itself is a type of AP play in my opinion.

There are no guarantees just as there no guarantees that the blackjack dealer is not going to hit that 21 or that the ball is going to scatter a few numbers more than what the VB player was hoping for.

Nothing is going to work 100% of the time. You only need to be slightly more right than you are wrong to profit.

I  was doing some testing tonight with the mongoose staking plan and decided to tweak it to play double dozens. It went rather well in the limited testing I completed. It is slightly different to the original mongoose.

There are three steps to this tweak....


Step 1 is a parlay attempt.

So I am looking for two consecutive hits on the double dozens. A loss on the first or second bet is a complete loss.

example:

1a) Bet 1 unit on 1st dozen and 1 unit on 2nd dozen. 

if win....

1b) Bet 1.5 units on 1st dozen and 1.5 units on 2nd dozen.

so.....

L is a total loss.

WL is a total loss.

WW is a win and move on to Step 2.



Step 2 is a possible two step progression.

1a) Bet 0.75 units on 1st dozen and 0.75 units on second dozen. (if win, move to step 3)

if I lose the above bet.....

1b) Bet 1.50 units on 1st dozen and 1.50 units on second dozen. (if win, move to step 3)

A loss on 1b is a total loss.


Step 3 is a possible two step progression.

1a) Bet 0.75 units on 1st dozen and 0.75 units on 2nd dozen. (if win...end of game!)

if I lose the above bet....

1b) Bet 1.50 units on 1st dozen and 1.50 units on 2nd dozen. (win or lose = end of game)


Here are all the possible scenarios....

WW/W/W  +4.0 units.

WW/W/LW  +3.25 units.

WW/LW/W  +3.25 units.

WW/LW/LW  +2.50 units.

WW/LL  -2.0 units.

WW/LW/LL  -2.0 units.

WW/W/LL  -1.25 units.

L  -2.0 units.

WL  -2.0 units.



cheers

I have recently finished reading a book called 'Renzoni on Baccarat'

It was published some 41 years ago and there is no system/strategy as such. However there is certainly a lot of common sense and sound advice. It can apply to all table games and so I am going to put up some extracts from the book.

Renzoni took the game of Baccarat from Cuba over to Vegas where the game was first introduced at the Sands Hotel. Renzoni is said to have witnessed between 10 and 20 million Baccarat decisions in his 40 years as a professional.

Hello 

I would like to share the idea of 2nd's + 3rd's here.

There is an Excel sheet at the bottom with an example using Black/Red and Low/High.

I will use the Black numbers in the sheet to give an example....

What I am tracking for is to see if a Black number goes to 2 hits and then goes on to 3 hits.

33
26
26
31
33
8

There are 6 consecutive black numbers there and so I put a W for both the 2nd's and the 3rd's.

The next black numbers....

29
13

Now there are only 2 black numbers there. So I put a W in the 2nd's and an L in the 3rd's.

Next up...

8

Only 1 black number there. So an L goes in the 2nd's and I can't put anything in the 3rd's.

Next up...

29
24

2 black numbers. So a W in the 2nd's and an L in the 3rd's.

What I am playing close attention at is the W's and L's in the 2nd's + 3rd's.

It's possible to get a run of L's in the 2nd's.....BUT.....a run of W's in the 3rd's. This would happen if you got runs of just either 1 black and runs of 3+ blacks.

Charting all three E.C's (Black/Red, Low/High, Odd/Even) is the way to go.

A tracker would do the job OR you could just skip a spin or two in a B+M casino to give you time to track everything.

Of course....you could track 2nd's, 3rd's + 4th's and even use this idea for dozens and columns.

It is just another way to look for betting the W's OR L's depending on what's happening in the 2nd's and 3rd's.

cheers.

I know most of you guys probably don't play BJ.....but you might get a kick out of this one.

It's funny how the manager is keeping up his spiel as the guy is pretty much taking the mickey out of him.

http://youtu.be/6HjwzJyCQlQ

enjoy!

Hello Guys

This casino has opened up using the dublinbet live feed.

https://www.viewcasino.com/

The good thing about them if you live in the UK is that you can play in £ (pounds) and your money does not get converted into euros and then back to £ (pounds) when you make a withdrawal.

I am pretty certain that anybody who already has an account at dublinbet would qualify for the 50% cashback on their first deposit as well.

cheers

Just messing around with RX and thought I would test this progression with DBL (decision before last) on the E/C's.

The progression itself is simple....+1 on a win or loss until you reach a new high.

It always seems to go well when I give it a quick blast.

The danger with DBL would be a string of 'terrible two's' alternating.

This quick test did reach a 20 unit bet once! It needs a decent B/R and a strong constitution!

cheers

I was having a look at this one tonight as it is a new one to me.

They have Live Dealer games from Macau with minimum bet of £1.

You get 20 free spins on the slots for signing up.

They also give you a 200% match bonus on your initial deposit plus a further 180 free spins. (20 a day over 9 days)

What I like about the 200% bonus is that it only comes with a x5 wagering requirement. This is pretty much unheard of today. (unfortunately the bonus does not apply to roulette)

I watched the Live Roulette for 20 minutes or so and the wheel has no scatter on it like the dublinbet wheels. It threw up a lot of repeats and neighbours in the time I watched it. I didn't get kicked out for just viewing either.

They don't accept U.S. players.....but it looks ok for the European guys. 

Hello

This could be a great area where we share info on gambling related material.

My favourite game is Roulette and I have many books on the subject. So I will attempt to re-read them all and share some info.

I make an effort to try and re-invest some of my roulette winnings into books that I think look interesting. Many people do something similar in all areas of life....like taking that P.C. course to improve your skills and job prospects. So why should our gambling enterprises be any different.

One thing I am not looking for in a roulette book is the 'holy grail'. I would be constantly dissapointed if that was the case. What I am looking for is to hopefully learn one little piece of info that I can add to what I already know or maybe get an idea or two that can spark some creative thinking.

So on with the show.....

The first book I am going to review is 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison.

I just received it yesterday and I am almost finished. I have known about this book for several years and the claims by the author of a 7% edge over a 00 wheel. It has kind of had mixed reviews on the various forums.

The centrepiece of the book is the 3Q/A reverse method. I will need to explain this in my own words so as not to infringe on any copyright. Thankfully it is not a complicated method and I was surprised by the simplicity of it. I thought it might be much more complicated than what it is.

I will run some tests and come back and explain the idea with my results and we can see if it holds up to tha author's claims. I am not holding my breathe to be honest...but hey, you never know!

cheers

I was playing at a few casinos today and the speed of the dealing is ridiculous in some cases.

Dublinbet Punto Banco (baccarat) is around 2/3 hands a minute with no players at the table.

The roulette there seems pretty fast as well.

I notice all the Playtech casinos have around 20 second spins as well.

Does this put any of you guys off? Do you prefer playing RNG because of this?

I am curious. Somebody once said 'system' players lose more money than anybody else. So why anger them by spinning like the clappers. Is it because more online players are likely to be using a system compared to the B+M players and are a bit more savvy.

The only casino that seems to give you a bit of extra time is Smartlive with their 60 second spins.

Does it all just boil down to the fact that they are greedy and more spins per minute = more [smiley]aes/money.png[/smiley].  (probably)

The action hots up today in the first Semi-Final at Wembley Stadium.

I think New Zealand have a great opportunity to book their place in the Final at the expense of England and face Australia who should beat Fiji later on with the minimum of fuss.

The Kiwis look the in-form team to me, in this comp and have superstars across the park.

Most of their players compete in the Australian NRL.

Quite a few of them (Sonny Bill-Williams, Jared Warrea-Hargreaves and Roger Tuivasa-Shek) play for the Sydney Roosters who have just won the Premiership back in October. Throw in Foran from Manly and the Bunnies hooker Isaac Luke and you are looking at a strong classy outfit.

I watched England against France in the Quarter Final last week and they dissapointed me. They looked slow and pedestrian in attack and I am not convinced they have the intensity in defence to stop the Kiwis scoring 4-5 tries.

Looking at the betting....

Ladbrokes are going 10/11 giving England a 6 point start. (This equals a converted try)

Alternatively.....you can get 4/9 on a Kiwi Win in 80 minutes.

I am going down the handicap route.

This IMO is one of those 5* betting opportunities that does not come around too often.

As they say in the trade......Fill yer boots! 

cheers

How about a section on Roulette books?

There are 500 members, and we have likely read everything out there between us all.

A thread could discuss a book and also suggest improvements that have been made along the way.

It would be good to have it all in one section as a reference point.

cheers

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Detailed-notes-on-the-2009-James-Grosjean-book-Beyond-Counting-Exhibit-CAA-/290922970307?pt=US_Nonfiction_Book&hash=item43bc5c3cc3

I have been reading about this book over the last few days and supposedly it's hard to get hold of and goes for around 1k-2k a pop.

Anyway...this guy is offering all the pertinent notes from the book.

He explains in a short youtube video at the bottom of the page.

cheers


p.s. And just in case anyone has a copy....I always help little old ladies across the street and I am a devout Christian....honest!!