Taking Statistical Calculated Risk With Sports Betting Service

Started by Sputnik, June 04, 2019, 02:09:08 PM

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Taking Statistical Calculated Risk With Sports Betting Service

I have a gambling bankroll for Casino games with amounts at different online casinos.
Now I pull out 500 Euro to put into Sports Betting.

I pay 19 Euro for one Tipster with 112% ROI each month.
Now I been active for five days and are plus 140 Euro.
Placing 10 Euro bets flat betting and risking 2% of the bankroll.
That is 50 Units.

Now Koetsch simulated 50/50 without edge for 60.000 placed bets.
He simulated 100 placed bets sessions.

The worst drawdown during 600 x 100 placed bets sessions was minus 34 units.
And the average loss during 100 placed bets session was minus 8 units.

That means I have a pretty good chance to make 1000 Euro risking 2% of the bankroll ( 50 Units).
So when I reach 750 Euro I will start flat betting 15 Euro until I reach my goal.

After that I not sure what to do - I have three options.

1) I can bet the recommendation 1% of bankroll with 1000 Euro flat betting 10 Euro.
2) I can continue risking 2% of bankroll and bet 20 Euro flat betting.
3) I can regress and play with the sportsbooks own money without risking my own.

Option two feel tempting to reach maybe 2000 Euro
Option three feel like a stable small income with no risks involved, where you can boost a % to make the bankroll slowly grow and pull out money each year as return on investment.
Option one feels like a long term strategy where you slowly grow your bankroll with small risk.

Cheers Patrik


Hi Sputnik...

My suggestion? Drop the tout...you really don't need them... betting moneyline with odds of -150 or greater gives you a 10% edge...then use one of your famous progressions to handle losses...you may have losing days but you'll NEVER have a losing month!!!  :cheer:


audionot - I understand your point of view - but this is a pure investment instead of the stock market.

I took 500 Euro from my bankroll for casino gambling and invest them into sports betting service - marketbeaters dot se -
Now I gamble with my money and bet 2% of my bankroll - 10 Euro flat betting - the recommendation is 1% of bankroll and that would be 10 Euro flat betting with 1000 Euro.

I buy two tipsters with an edge - Daniel 112% ROI and Inside 110% ROI - together they place around 200 bets for two months period and I can expect 560 Euro or more in pure profits.
The stock market doesn't even get close to those numbers.

Markeatbeaters has a spreadsheet with 7500 placed bets and 107% ROI - compare that to any other service that doesn't show you there stats.
This is a great opportunity for those who have a Europen time zone.



I think so many of us want to put money into sports betting, but not to lose it, only to win more. We all want to have the ability to play or bet on a game for real money where the odds dictate you can?t lose. Personaly I think that anyway  we can get some entertainment from the experience even if we do lose, but only as long as it?s not too much of our capital :) For me, the real point is to end up with more money than we started with. Now this service bettinggods.com helps me to achieve this goal. I bet on horse racing and it is very profitable.


I didn't know that in sports betting, risks can occur. Maybe if we refer to the azart that a man had and the uncontrolled situation. With friends for a while, we put bets and even quite a lot, but we saw that we spend a lot of money and nothing is returned back in the end. So then we decided to choose another way of fun, and this was online solitaire. We really enjoyed and often created private rooms where we could play only without strangers. However, since we play it practically every day, we get a little bored. Maybe someone can recommend us anything new?


Hi ViksHrks and welcome to the forum.

*Im not clear on what your specific question is from the above post.

Continued Success,
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."


I would never have thought that there is something like this in betting; I thought everything's random there. Of course, I would like to make my bets consciously, but I can't find any decent literature or training videos on this topic. If you know about something like this, please share your knowledge and tell me about it. I understand that you don't want to mess with a beginner, but I could even pay you for it since I need to find good information on this topic. As for the services, you can not advise anything; I have already chosen  (removed), since my best friend suggests me on this platform, and I trust him. I will wait for any answers; thank you


As far as buying recommendations from a tout service, I would never do it.    As the old saying goes, if they were very profitable and successful at a specific business, they would do it instead of selling picks and betting selections.

Also may of these "touts" and selection services always advertise a winning percentage of 60 % or more... which is impossible in the long run...if you could achieve a 60% win rate in sports betting, you would own the casino in about 6 months.

Betting on sports  ( baseball, pro and college basketball, pro and college football, soccer ( called football in the rest of the world ) tennis, hockey etc etc  requires at least 12 to 16 hours a day of study and analysis 6 or 7 days a week....with no guarantee of success..........and you need a very, very  large bankroll to even have a chance of a profitable year.     Hitting   % 55 percent winning bets in the long run is very, very hard to achieve.

And now thanks to the internet and only 2 companies in Las Vegas owning most of the sports books,  the betting line is essentially the same for every game so you can't shop around for the best line as you could have done 20 years ago.

And you also have to have a passion for sports to follow and also watch all the games and read the latest information which affects every game (injuries, coaching changes etc etc )

Personally I lost complete interest in sports when players started signing $ 20,000,000 to $ 30,000,000 contracts........am I supposed to be a fan of these players and root for their team when next year they become a free agent and sign a new contract with another team for a    $ 5,000,000  increase in salary?

They  don't care about me......so why should I care about some multi millionaire arrogant, obnoxious,
prima  donna?


Almost everything in life and life's path has turned into a business or became primarily about money in almost every way, IMO.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played well over 34,998 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that & more.

EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com


Without betting on the games, most professional sports would almost disappear....................especially the National Football League.   

If you lived in San Diego, would you care about who would win a game between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions?

Rooting for a pro team is like rooting for US Steel or General Motors to have a profitable year so the CEO can get a         
$ 5,000,000 bonus at the end of the year.   No Thanks!

"Good teams win..........great teams cover the point spread"



8OR9--Your comments in reply#7/9 were stated perfectly.

Your analogy is great:

"....Rooting for a pro team is like rooting for US Steel or General Motors to have a profitable year so the CEO can get a         
$ 5,000,000 bonus at the end of the year.   No Thanks! ..."

I concur 100%.

Continued Success,
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."


You should be careful and reasonable to make money on sports betting. I advise you to use the strategy from the casino ""red and black,"" when a player puts equal parts of money on different colors of roulette, to have a small but stable win in any case.  Sports betting will bring you a lot of income if you use (NEW MEMBERS LESS THAN 50 POSTS ARE NOT ELIGIBLE TO POST LINKS) A specialist will help you make the right choice and win with a small amount of money. You will succeed! Do not forget to also take into account the human factor. He is also very important.