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But random outcomes don't follow any cycle you
can depend on.

Oh! You are certainly right: nobody can really DEPEND on something as long as it's random.

We use this splitting the game in cycles only as points of reference, in order to being able to help us visualize the flow of the game.

Guarantees? None.

Anybody who talks about a "guaranteed outcome" in a random scenario isn't really to be taken in a serious light. Random is and will continue to be by definition an scenario where we can't get a probability of 1 (absolute certainty); we can at most use  our frame of reference (whatever that be: system, method, belief, vodoo, etc.) in order to speculate.

[spike]

we can at most use  our frame of reference (whatever that be: system, method, belief, vodoo, etc.) in order to speculate.

Educated guessing is always under rated.