BetSelection.cc

 When Victor posted the voting on the favourite playing position, I saw that not many chose Dozens/columns. That's why I posted the challenge which is based on Dozens/columns to show how effectively it can be used to rake up some nice profits. Now even though the bet selection in the explanation of the framework is one dozen and one column, it can be done on any location that has 1:3 odds. That will open up a variety of playing positions combos right from dozens to straight-ups. And one admission before getting into the framework, dozens/columns are my least favourite playing position J

Bet selection
For a moment, let us assume we live in a perfect world where the odds match the outcomes. In such a world, if there are three balls coloured red, black and green lying in a bag, you will get a different ball once every 3 times you draw a ball from the bag. We take this as the basis for our bet selection. We observe one outcome and assume that that outcome will come up within the next 3 results. (Huge assumption! May be wrong! But we need to assume something J) In other words, we select a betting position and bet on it 3 times in a row or until a win. On a win, we continue on the same selection for another 3 spins and on a loss, we select a new position.

e.g. with dozens
1       - Observe this spin. Bet on 1^st dozen for next 3 spins or until a win, whichever occurs first.
13    -  Bet on 1^st dozen
23    - continue betting on 1^st dozen. This is two times.
36    - continue on 1^st dozen. This is three times. Now we lost this series. So select a new position, which is 3^rd dozen.
1 – Bet on 3^rd dozen
23 – Bet on 3^rd dozen
30 – Bet on 3^rd dozen. This is a win. So continue on 3^rd dozen for next 3 spins.
12 – Bet on 3^rd dozen.
36 – Bet on 3^rd dozen. This is a win. So continue on 3^rd dozen for next 3 spins.

Now that you have got how to do a 3 step, cycle based bet selection, I will proceed to explaining the trends and anti-trends.

Trends on dozens are something that have been discussed in this forum for years now. I was a keen follower of Hermes and his statistics on dozens/columns and their trends and lately the ones from George. There are essentially 3 trends that are possible when you are focussing on a 3 spin cycle for betselection (ignoring the green goblin )

1-2-3 and its variations (where all the dozens appear in 3 spins)
1-2-2 and its variations (where two dozens appears in 3 spins)
1-1-1         and its variations (where all 3 spins contain the same dozen)

Our bet selection works best with the 1^st trend, where we get all the 3 dozens as different. This will ensure that we get a hit, resulting in a 100% win.
It works next best with the 2^nd trend, where we get only 2 dozens. Here we are looking for a win% of 66%
It works least with the 3^rd trend, where we get only one dozen. So unless we are getting four dozens in a row, we will be guaranteed a failure if only 3 dozens come in a row. Here we are looking at a win% of 33%.

Bundling it, we have a balanced view on the trend which will ensure a good hit ratio. But how do we overcome the scenario where we are getting caught up in the last variation. Ofcourse we cannot guarantee, but we can introduce an insurance bet here, to ensure that the loss is limited.

Insurance
Most gamblers know what insurance is. For those who don't, insurance is a way to limit your losses by either getting a partial or full return of your bets. An insurance bet will not give you a productive outcome. It will either reduce the losses and get you into even. So how do we add an insurance bet in our framework here. We just add another element into our bet selection, which gives the same 1:3 return. For explanation, I will add columns as it is easier to explain. So every time we do a bet selection we do two positions that offer a 1:3 chance and in my examples I will start with a column and a dozen.

So the above example will look as
1       - Observe this spin. Bet on 1^st dozen and 1^st column.
13    - We get a win. So we reset selection. Now we bet on 2^nd dozen and 1^st column.
23    - We get a win. We reset selection. Now we bet on 2^nd dozen and 2^nd column.
36    - 1^st bet
1 – 2^nd bet
23 – 3^rd bet and win. Reset selection. Bet on 2^nd dozen and 2^nd column.
30 – 1^st bet. Lost
12 – 2^nd bet. lost
36 – 3^rd bet. Lost. Reset selection. Bet on 3^rd dozen and 3^rd column.

So we managed to improve our win% from 2 out of 8 outcomes to 3 out of 8 outcomes. Even though the improvement is marginal, if you are following any progression, you will realize that you are being lighter on your relative bankroll.

Now that we have added insurance, we need to see how we can ride on the trends on the insurance bet. For e.g: our trends on dozens may be performing wonderfully well, but the trend on columns may be going against us. We need to see how we can ride on the position which is giving us a great trend. I will follow this up in my post later this week.

Very nicely written.  I'm looking forward to chapter two!

I will second that Great Gramp's!

I'll third that GG

can someone post a set of 100 spins. I will use it as an example.

duisberg20130601_0218
4
22
13
3
2
5
20
13
19
18
10
29
2
8
16
8
19
2
1
36
31
4
0
29
22
4
29
18
10
18
5
30
31
9
19
2
6
2
20
35
33
32
25
33
16
5
1
16
21
31
22
20
24
22
9
8
19
27
8
18
16
33
25
17
34
34
15
4
4
9
12
17
7
36
4
5
26
25
28
13
24
7
10
32
36
5
34
24
2
33
20
8
17
21
17
21
20
12
35
1

Here's some numbers GG


32
16
20
20
6
35
5
34
13
30
16
5
5
14
17
36
19
28
22
16
7
20
20
17
3
29
9
7
8
3
21
18
35
16
2
25
28
2
23
21
30
4
24
6
17
14
36
15
18
11
18
20
34
6
2
28
15
25
3
25
17
33
8
31
20
27
16
23
20
32
28
35
13
36
0
11
18
20
3
33
16
4
17
16
3
31
19
28
34
11
19
17
21
1
13
20
11
12
24
14
21
4
26
28
9
12
22
32
34
32
4
6
16
0
27
35
13
2
12
22
2
23
23
5
29
30
34
9
12
20
29
19
26
9
5
6
28
21
22
7
3
5
33
3
20
22
22
10
15
33
33
0
1
18
10
19
3
11
20
27
28
22
33
35
17
12
20
16
16
22
0
26
30
24
3
25
9
28
20
31
2
34
35
3
31
16
21
5
30
11
16
8
32
13
26
18
4
1
32
32
26
13
23
29
29
20
11
7
28
29
7
24
22
32
0
7
21
8
36
33
12
23
20
25
1
24
14
32
28
34
2
15
20
4
28
28
25
19
23
0
15
19
10
1
2
0
33
22
36
35
36
19
4
10
32
32
12
2
11
18
10
26
22
9
9
30
22
28
0
33
35
14
26
22
7
26
6
23
13
12
30
10
5
36
33
14
14
23
11
6
10
15
1

Thanks, BW, Turner! I shall use the two sets of spins that you have posted as examples. But lets complete the framework definition first.
We left our discussion on how to get on the trend boat.


Trends
So now when it comes  to trends, there are two ways we could track trends. One is tracking what is happening on the table and the other is tracking what is happening to our bet selection. When we are able to match both these trends, we will get winning bets. Easier said, difficult to achieve in practice right! Yes, this is the greatest puzzle that we all try to resolve, and I have not seen any solutions so far. We all could arrive at a solution, that could almost be the perfect solution and there are many of them around. (sh!! Sh!! Go away philosophy, lets talk practical things!).


The key is to improvise and improve on the trend of your bet selection on which you have a control and not getting lost in what is trending on the table. For example, if we are tracking dozens and columns to repeat in 3 spins and we see results 12,33,36, 15, 33, 36. Independently, our bet selection trend is going horribly wrong for dozens, but going great for columns. We cannot influence what is happening in the table, so we should not be trying to match the table trend of 3^rd dozens and 3^rd columns. We should try to improvise our bet selection, so here for a brief period of time, we will ride on the column trend by betting only on columns for a brief period of time before we switch back to columns and dozens.

Now let's see how can we achieve this in the framework that we are considering. Essentially, we are betting on two trends here, a column to repeat within 3 spins and a dozen to repeat within 3 spins. Sometimes, the column may trend, sometimes dozen may trend, sometimes both and sometimes none. We are not worried about both and none, as we can't do anything about it J. What we are worried about is how to capture when only one of them is trending. It is easy breezy! For a brief period of time switch to the one that trends from the one that doesn't trend. How do we do that! We switch to columns when they are winning and same with dozens. Let me explain with an example.


33   - Tracking spin. Our selection is 3^rd doz, 3^rd col for 3 spins.
16   - Loss.
5     - Loss.
1     - Loss. Now our selection is 1^st doz, 1^st col for 3 spins.
16  - Win on col. But doz are still losing. Lets switch to columns for 3 spins and bet twice (our insurance bet and production bet on the same bet choice which trends). Our choice is twice our bets on 1^st column for 3 spins.
21 - Loss
31 - Win. Great things will always come to an end. After we get a hit, we go back to basics of one production and one insurance bet even though trend may continue. So our choice now is 3^rd doz, 1^st column.
22  - Win on col.

Hope you got the picture now. That's probably all of it on bet selection on this framework. When I find some more time, I shall post the money management bit.

Brilliant .

Excellent GG, I'm looking forward to the MM part.

Cheers

R

thanks a lot GG for sharing with us

if you don't mind, can I ask something?
you said: "dozens/columns are my least favourite playing position"
what is your favorite playing position then?
I assume you play roulette for a living, yes? (or some other game maybe?)

Quote from: soggett on June 05, 2013, 06:21:40 AM
what is your favorite playing position then?

ECs. Either as a primary productive play or as an insurance to straight play.

Quote from: soggett on June 05, 2013, 06:21:40 AM
I assume you play roulette for a living, yes? (or some other game maybe?)

Used to not anymore. Retired from money making now and taking a well earned break waiting for heaven or hell to break lose. Now it is more of a stuff which I cannot live with as I have been associated with wheels for now close to 30-35 years!

Quote from: GreatGrampa on June 05, 2013, 10:33:05 AM
ECs. Either as a primary productive play or as an insurance to straight play.

Used to not anymore. Retired from money making now and taking a well earned break waiting for heaven or hell to break lose. Now it is more of a stuff which I cannot live with as I have been associated with wheels for now close to 30-35 years!

thanks for the reply
if playing the dozens goes this well and they are not your favorite, then playing the EC's must be mindblowingly better?

so you can call it a hobby now?   :D

looking forward to your posts
regards,
S.

Hello GreatGrampa,


Thanks for sharing your interesting system.


Looking forward to your MM.


Regards

Quote from: soggett on June 05, 2013, 11:31:10 AM
if playing the dozens goes this well and they are not your favorite, then playing the EC's must be mindblowingly better?

I wish. But unfortunately its all the same. Its like the stocks that I own. Large caps might be my favourite, but small caps are performing better now :)

Dynamic and flexible 3 dimensional money management
The money management that I have used in the video that I posted in the puzzle is a very complex one. It is what I call a target based money management system. It starts with setting a target win for the session. In all the examples I posted in the puzzle it was race to 50, so it's a target of 50u+/-. Then you oscillate the stakes on the table up and down based on whether you are winning or losing and how close you are to the target. So essentially there are 3 Dimensions in play here.

Dimension 1 is the regular progression, positive, negative or mixed or whatever you would like to use that we use day in and day out.
Dimension 2 is you varying your base unit size depending on whether you are losing or winning. If you are in a losing trend, your base unit size gets smaller after a set of predefined range and if you are in a winning trend, your base unit size gets bigger. All this variance happens independent of the progression in Dimension 1.
Dimension 3 is on how close you are to your target. The more closer you are to your target, the smaller your base unit size becomes at predefined intervals. This way, you are always focussed on your target and will not amplify your losses to go far from your target.

Now, Dimension 1 can be explained and taught and is specific to this framework. Dimension 2 and 3 is very complex (at least I haven't figured out a simple way) to explain and is not restrained to this framework. It can be applied very effectively in any system that you are using and any game you are playing. There are no hard and fast rules for Dimensions 2 and 3, except the fact that you have to stick to what you have planned and play your plan. I have shared the concept, I will encourage anyone interested to understand this concept and try looking at their own interpretation of implementation.

I will post more on Dimension 2 and 3 in a separate topic when I figure out how to explain it in a simple manner. Dimension 1, as I said can be explained and taught and that is what I will focus now as part of the explanation of this framework.

Dimension 1 – Progressions for Double treble
Step 1 – Independent progressions and breaking evenTo start with, let's see what will be our progression independently for each playing position. As we are betting a position that is going to return 1:3, we are going to follow a simple progression, 1,2,3,4,5. Needless to say the progression is reset on a win. This is how the BR impact looks like.

[csv=,]
Step, Outlay
1, +2
2, +3
3, +3
4,+2
5, even
[/csv]
 
So as you see, 5 is our breaking point and we don't go beyond that. Beyond that we reset our progression to 1.

Step 2 – Recovery process
Now let's get the complexity factor in. As we are breaking even at 5, until 5 it is a productive bet. But if we lose, we lose 15 units in entirety. It will be a crime to not have a recovery progression built in. How do we do it. We add another 5 steps. So essentially, your progression could either look like 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 or 1,2,3,4,5,2,4,6,8,10. This is how the outlay looks for both of these progressions.

[csv=,]
Step,    12345678910,   12345246810
1,2,2
2,3,3
3,3,3
4,2,2
5,0,0
6,-3,-11
7,-7,-9
8,-12,-9
9, -18,-11
10, -25,-15
[/csv]

I use 1,2,3.. 8,9,10 because of the simplicity in remembering stuff and the recovery potential early in the elongated progression (6th and 7th step). But as you can see in the above table, a better recovery bet is the second one (1,2,3,4,5,2,4,6,8,10). So essentially it depends on your style of your play. For the examples that I show, I will use 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10. But you can use what suits you. The essence is to have a production and recovery progression built in.

Step 3 : Complexity of two positions
Now let's see how it plays across when you are doing two positions. Essentially you will follow the progressions independently on your dozens and columns. Three rules for resetting your progression on both the positions.
• New BR high
• one of the progressions reaches 10
• win on both the betting positions
In all these three cases, we reset the progression on both positions to 1. We do independent resetting of the progressions as the case might be where we win only one position and any of the above rules are not met.

[csv=,]
30, Track. Bet on 3rd dozen & 3rd column – 1-1
31, Win on only dozen but we are at a new BR high. So reset progression to 1-1 and bet on 3rd doz & 1st column
9, Loss move to 2-2
19, Win only on column. But our BR is now even. So reset to 1-1 and bet 1st col & 2nd doz
2, Loss move to 2-2
6, Loss move to 3-3
2, Loss. 3 spin cycle over. Change bet selection to 1st doz & 2nd col 4-4
20, Win on column only. Not at a new high. Reset the progression where you won and continue where you lost. Also if you remember the bet selection rules - we are going to switch to the winning trend(columns for 3 spins). 1-5 but all bets on 2nd column.
35, Win on both betting tracks. So reset progression to 1-1 on 3rd doz & 2nd col
[/csv]

So now digest this information, before we go ahead and look at minor tweaks to the play on how to avoid reaching 10th step of progression always where it is least profitable, how to play mini-games to taper steep draw-downs and cyclic progressions in my next post when I find some more time. Any questions pls ask, will be happy to respond as always. It is very essential that we understand this bit about how the bet-selection and progressions, go hand in hand.

I have also posted the spins that Buffalowizard and Turner gave and the way this is played using what I have explained so far. There are couple of things around cyclic progressions, not reaching 10th step of progression always are things, mini games are stuff that I haven't spoken about, but follow it up in further posts. Till then, pls shout if you need to ask anything.

Quote from: GreatGrampa on June 06, 2013, 02:06:55 PM
I have also posted the spins that Buffalowizard and Turner gave and the way this is played using what I have explained so far. There are couple of things around cyclic progressions, not reaching 10th step of progression always are things, mini games are stuff that I haven't spoken about, but follow it up in further posts. Till then, pls shout if you need to ask anything.

why is the game lost at spin 12 (number 29)? you bet 9 units then - shouldn't it gone 1 more step and you bet 10 units?

Quote from: soggett on June 06, 2013, 03:16:42 PM

why is the game lost at spin 12 (number 29)? you bet 9 units then - shouldn't it gone 1 more step and you bet 10 units?

Quote from: GreatGrampa on June 06, 2013, 02:06:55 PM
not reaching 10th step of progression always are things, mini games are stuff that I haven't spoken about, but follow it up in further posts. Till then, pls shout if you need to ask anything.

Sogget, will post some of the further money management rules when I get some more time. Not always we will go to 10th step. I will explain in my later posts. At the moment, assume that we will go to 10th step and then reset, until I explain it.

Quote from: GreatGrampa on June 06, 2013, 05:00:02 PM
Sogget, will post some of the further money management rules when I get some more time. Not always we will go to 10th step. I will explain in my later posts. At the moment, assume that we will go to 10th step and then reset, until I explain it.

I thought so  :thumbsup:

Mini games
We play this whole framework in mini games of +50/-50. So every games is stopped or started when we reach -50 or +50 respectively. If we get to -50, then next game will be played with doubling the units, with an objective to reach +50/-50units and not +100/-100units. As soon as we reach +50/-50, the game is reset again. My advice would be not to chase losses and don't go beyond the 2nd step. But that's how I play and you might want to play a derivation that suits you. So this is essentially a way of implementing the cyclic progressions.

Sogget, to answer your question. The game stopped at spin 12, even before reaching the 10th level in progression because of mini game was over at a loss. So we tracked one spin and started the game at 2nd level.

That's pretty much all of it for the moment folks. I will try to post a video to show how this is played.

Here comes the video.

Double treble (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vt_prQP6LCM#)

@GreatGrampa


Principal question for you .......


Why, in principal, do U move the bet selection on a Win, but don't move the bet selection on a loss?


Why is it we chase the loss, with progression, yet keep the same bet placement?
Just wondered.  :o
(BTW......another very good video from Yourself   :thumbsup: )

Chris mate! I dnt think I understand your question. do you mind rephrasing for me?

Sure thing GreatGramps


In  your video example.............
First number spun, from the free spin bet selection is #4


So,  your first bet is 1 unit on Doz1 and 1 unit on Col1.(U are following the spin result.)
The next spin result is #16, which is a Loss on the Dozen bet, and a Win on the Col bet ..net +1 (br +1)


Second bet is to following the spin result again, and is 1 unit on Doz2 and 1 unit on Col1 ( U move the loss component, but retain the winning component where it was......cause it won!)


The next spin result is #26, which is a loss on Both components, net -2 (br -1)


Third bet is to leave the already moved Doz bet at Doz2, (even tho that has lost), tho now with 2 units on it, and leave the new losing Col1 bet?, again putting with 2 units on it.


Now the next spin result is #17, which gives U a win on the Dozen 2. and a loss on the Col1...........


I just wondered why U only move the losing bet selection, when only one of the bets has won, and one has lost, and not move both components?


I don't mean specifically this example U have shown in the video, but in general.
I wondered, why we don't always chase the position of the last spin, and expect the result to come back to where we have already moved to! :o

Quote from: Chrisbis on June 12, 2013, 10:25:22 PM
I wondered, why we don't always chase the position of the last spin, and expect the result to come back to where we have already moved to! :o

The simple answer is "It doesn't matter". The key in this framework is the money management across two 1:3 paying positions and ride on the position which is trending for your bet selection.

Want to know the reason behind the simple answer. Attached is an excel with randomly generated dozen bets. Try changing the yellow cell with different values to see different values getting generated and the % wins for each strategy. It varies for different sets of randomly generated numbers and there is no clear winner for the bet selection strategy. You can ofcourse, add as many bet selection strategies as possible to this excel, you will not find it consistently having higher "W" percentage than any other bet selection.

However, if you note, under each bet selection strategy, there will be clusters of "W". This is what we are trying to ride on by doubling our bets on the trending playing position. Also, you will figure out that the "W" percentage  is consistently below 33.33% for any bet selection method. Your bet selection strategy has to win more than 33.33% to win using flat bets.

Chris, hope I answered your question.

GG, in a game lost (-50). Start fresh and go to 2 units in the cyclic progression until how many steps? 2 - 4 - 6 - 8 - 10 ... 20(is 10 steps)? And Stop / Loss for progression with 2 units is  -50 or -100?

Quote from: BrenoGarcia on June 24, 2013, 02:17:46 PM
GG, in a game lost (-50). Start fresh and go to 2 units in the cyclic progression until how many steps? 2 - 4 - 6 - 8 - 10 ... 20(is 10 steps)? And Stop / Loss for progression with 2 units is  -50 or -100?

10 steps until 20. Stop loss is -50.

Hey Mr Grandpa! Im rarely on this board but I posted this on roulette forum--I like it so far. Its got one change on the bet selection I believe? and the progression is different but im not locked up with mine yet. Its been giving out hefty payouts in live action 00 wheel. If I struggle at the beginning I play till around break even if it starts well I ride it till i get 2 losses on column and dozen----It was fun seeing someone else thinking the same way--Thanks



Something new I started playing on dozens and columns. I came up with it , I think its original but who knows? I tested it on 2000 zumma 00 spins and recently started playing it when I have a good day with my other systems . So I have played it live I think 3x...it worked well .....
doz comes in say doz 2.   I play the second dozen 3x, any hits within the 3 spins and I play the second doz 3  more times...
If I lose 3 bets I take the last dozen that came and repeat the above.
my betting is
111
222
333 etc
What I think it is doing is finding a hot dozen over time........
when both the dozen and column hit there are some nice payoffs....
If you have questions just ask
So far its working some I'm going to test and play some more of it!!!!!

I hope Im not ruining or disrespecting your thread GG but I had this idea or something very close to it on the plane back from Vegas 2 weeks ago-honest!!! Its super interesting to me. Was at the casino today and tried it this way:



I played it another way , progression wise today at the ole casino......
I decided to go 123 twice and 246 once on both column and dozen or call it quits with a  24 unit lose x 2 .....the way I played it was
if it hits right away on 1 it's a 2 unit hit,,, if lose play 2 which produces a 3 unit hit if it loses play 3 which is a 3 unit hit ....at any hit start the same dozen or column again. switch after 3 losses--It did really well and gave me a nice bang and all in time for me to get out of the casino before they raise the minimums tomorrow on july 4th the USA b-day! I haven't done a lot of testing on this --very little in fact! but it seems like something that could be played viably. I'm not 100% sure on the progression yet The runs on this can be incredible--but as with anything this one has risk as far as I can see so far.