C'mon, we've all seen or heard it hundreds of times:  "There is no progression that will turn a negative expectancy game into a positive one."

This, my friends, in my humble opinion, is pure baloney.  At least, when looking upon it in its correct light.

You see, I do agree that there exists no linear or static progression to beat the negative odds; of that I am certain, for had it existed, the game would have ceased to be offered.

BUUUT, make no mistake of it, my friends, Baccarat is now and will forever be a BETTING GAME.  The astute and savvy player certainly DOES adjust his bet sizes (and yes, call it what you will, but be sure you include the term "progression" when doing so), but he does so in a manner conducive to many underlying factors, not just the fact that he lost his latest bet.

That astute player is familiar with his variance statistics, both "laws of series"-wise and personal.  And he knows his way around a shoe, so much so that he is aware of certain "occurrences" and the frequencies of same.  He knows when he's "on" and he knows just as well knows when he isn't (and, when he isn't on, nor should his bets be placed).  Finally, he knows that THIS BET or even THIS SHOE does NOT define him as a Baccarat player, and so his patience and discipline are both proven allies.

And then, with that all said and all taken into consideration, he ADJUSTS his bet sizes.  Yes, he utilizes some form of "progressive betting".  He progresses his bets either in the name of recoup, or even so in the name of maximizing profit; but make no mistake of it, he progresses his bets. 

The important thing to take note of, however, is that the astute and savvy will, at first opportunity or first "signal" (read: rate of current strike rates), seek to reduce his bets back to base level.  This sort of progressive bettor is not there to bet big; rather, they're there to bet SMART.  "Hit it and quit it", especially as it pertains to progressive betting, is forever etched into that savvy player's brain.

Bet size adjustments, I believe, are necessary in this "betting" game, but they are, lest anyone think otherwise, only a "necessary evil".  No one likes to bet higher.  We'd all like to beat this game with flat-betting.  But the realization must be faced that there will exist those times when both our plays and our bets are not working well, and so we simply must have a plan for such downturns.  And that plan must be a measured one, lest we simply try to "over-bet" our way out of trouble, which, inevitably, leads only to our inevitable destruction.

Progressions fail when they are designed as most usually are....loss avoidance.  Wait, let me restate that:  loss avoidance AT ALL COSTS.  This is where all progression fail, and, frankly, where most players fail.  Ever hear the statement:  "Win a little, lose a lot"?...sure you have.  That's the bane of every progressive bettor.  Frankly, players such as those shouldn't go anywhere near a progression.

Rather, the astute player adjusts his bets BASED UPON CURRENT STATISTICS.  Now, one moment here...lest anyone think otherwise, even that condition carries no guarantees.  The game still will be a turn-of-a-card event, where, well, anything can (and will) happen.  BUUUT, this game is not supposed to be about your next bet, or, for that matter, this particular shoe.  That is no way to play, and certainly no way to play any progression.

it is much more about bet management.  Bet control.  It doesn't mean you cannot ever raise your bet, it simply means that there is an immediate purpose to be fulfilled.  If it does so, fine.  If it does not, it is abandoned for the time being, and to be brought back out when both your plays and your bets are hitting at a much-improved rate.  Patience and discipline are the order of the day, especially so in those difficult times, and ESPECIALLY SO when utilizing progressive betting.

Wow....what's happening within this forum recently?

I mean, we've got a couple of forum members going on and on about "karma" and the ability (or, should I say, lack thereof) to simply "rub the spots" onto your cards in order to achieve your desired results.....

.....and then, even more disturbingly, we've got an esteemed member of the forum now offering for sale a mode of play....and labeled, supposedly, as a relatively safe one to boot....that requires "only" a 300-unit session buy-in.  My two cents on that:  Any mode of play that requires an enormous buy-in such as that is built to make pennies on the dollar when it works and an absolute "big bucks destroyer" when it doesn't....not to mention the obvious stress factor that naturally goes along with such insanity. 

I've always enjoyed this forum, but recent paths are that are leading to nowhere good could be its downfall.  Let's hope not.

Every player has their own unique style of play.  The astute/savvy player will develope a mode of play that suits their own personal style, both bet selection- and money management-wise.

And that same astute/savvy player, while obviously in tune with exactly what they need to win, also knows exactly what it is that causes them to fail (read: lose).  And so it becomes imperative for that player to know exactly what their nemesis appears as; then it becomes but a short step to do their very best to avoid the "nemesis trap".

That short step is:  the "no-bet" option.  Simply put, when the cards/table/shoe (or portion thereof) is not in tune with your preferred plays, the wisest solution is to "stop the bleeding" of chips and simply wait it out.  Assuming your bet selection process is of any good use at all (and that astute/savvy player knows darn well that it is), then you are very well aware that those same plays that are failing at the moment will, in fact, come to the forefront soon enough.

OK.  Let's define "soon enough":  It might occur later in the same shoe, or it might occur in the next one.  But you know that it will occur, because you're armed with statistics that prove certain "variance points".  And so the "wait", as I put it, then becomes a "wait of confidence", where your preferred plays' appearance is, frankly, but a matter of time.

So now that player is left with a choice.  Do I keep on betting into shoes (or portions thereof) that are not in compliance with the winning plays that I am there to profit on?  Isn't that answer a rather obvious one?  Please know this:  Regardless of bankroll size, you simply cannot "bully" the casino, for they will FOREVER be bigger and badder than we, as players, can ever be.  No matter how much money you now decide to put into that B/P circle, it will not alter the outcome for the casino.  Rather, only YOU are affected directly by the size of your next bet.  And, make no mistake of it, my friends, "over-betting" is your worst enemy, and the casino's best ally.  Especially over-betting into a losing jag.  It is "Baccarat suicide".

Witness the player at my table last Thursday night:

He bought in for $1000, and was doing decently, hitting most of his higher (100 - 200) bets, while losing some of the smaller (50 - 75) bets.  And so, at one point, I'd guess he was up a bit over $1000.  Now he proceeds to lose a couple of bets in a row, and then, all of a sudden, he's "all-in" on the very next hand.  About $2000 bet on the Player's side.  He lost to a natural 9 on the Banker's side.  Huffing and puffing, he walked away.

I ask you:  What made him do this?  He appeared as a decent player to me, at least up until that "suicide moment".  So what was it that compelled him to go "all-in" on any particular bet?  I'll give you my answer:  He wanted to lose.  What's that you say, gr8player...he WANTED to lose?  Well, he wanted a quick resolution.  You see, alot of players simply cannot take the pressure that patience and discipline warrants in order to "wait out" the game (read: letting the game come to them, rather than them chasing the game).  And so they "load up" on a bet, usually after a few losses in a row, in order to, as quickly as possible, eradicate that pressure, eradicate that sunken "losing feeling"...and so they load up to "end it all".  Again, virtual "Baccarat suicide".  And, believe it or not, that big loss (and unnecessary, if you ask me) was rather "alleviating" for that player, as now the pressure of the game is, effectively, off.

So we learn what not to do.  We learn that we cannot "bully" the game, and we cannot change the outcomes, regardless of bet size and regardless of all of our "wishing" it so.  And so we MUST learn another, better way to react to our "nemesis", for the astute/savvy player is the player that reacts to each decision rather matter-of-factly, and it then becomes that rather controlled reaction that becomes one of their best plays.  Know this:  Our preferred plays are not just in bet-selection form, they are in reactionary form, as well.  In other words, our "no-bet" option, at times, is our "preferred play".  That is exactly how to best deal with our nemesis; dare I say, that is the best way to, in the long run, DEFEAT our nemesis.  Can't "wish it" away and you certainly can't "big-bet" it away...rather, you can simply decide to recognize it and LET IT PASS.  Thereby limiting the damage, both to your bankroll and your psyche.

That, my friends, is how you learn to win.  You learn to view that game with "long-term" lenses, and by doing so then each decision, each outcome, doesn't weigh as heavily upon you, and then, PRESTO-WHAMMO, the game isn't as pressurized for you, and you won't find yourself "tilting towards those bail-out bets".  Learn to let the game come to you rather than you chasing the game.  Trust me, your preferred plays will appear...and so the question then becomes:  Will you be there for them, or will you be making that dreaded walk (like that fella last Thursday night) back to the parking valet.

So be prepared to await your preferred plays, and then bet confidently.  Doesn't mean you'll win each bet, but it does mean that you've effectively put yourself in the very best position to WIN over the long term.  You maintain your patience, you maintain your discipline, and you maintain control of yourself, and, trust me, the game will follow.  The casino beats only those that haven't a plan of play that puts themselves in the very best position to succeed.  They beat the dreamers, they beat the gamblers.  What they have trouble beating are the players that don't beat THEMSELVES.  It then becomes your responsibility to BECOME THAT PLAYER.

Take care, and stay well.

There was a thread a while back that begged the question:  Bet Selection v. Money Management, and I had voted for Bet Selection as being the more important of the two.  I further explained why:  I said that, in the long run, there isn't enough money in the world for the player that can't seem to put their chips into the correct circle more often than not (read: better than 50/50).  I mean, think about it for a minute:  while we, as players, have our "buy-in" bankroll, the casino has theirs, as well.  And it goes without saying that the casino has it all over us in that regard; they beat our buy-in bankrolls by 10's (if not 100's) of multiples.  So they ALWAYS have much more money, much more "ammunition", then we ever will put onto the felt....so is it any wonder that they are the "favorite" to win this "coin flip" that we call a "session of play"?  Of course not.

So, money management aside, what might be our best chance, our best tool, to get the better of the casino in the long run?  Bet Selection is the answer.  So we can see the importance of improving our strike rates, and, just as importantly, the "footprint" of our strike rates (read: winning "clusters"), in order to maximize our profits when we are hitting our plays.

So now we might want to ask ourselves:  What might be the best way to both improve our strike rates and get the desired winning "footprint" that we're looking for?  While I can't speak for all, I can reveal my answer to the puzzle:  Domination Anticipation.

Alright, we all know what "Anticipation" means, so let's begin by defining "Domination".  Baccarat is an "even chance" game, simply put, banker v. player.  A never-ending choice between the two, banker or player.  But, know this of Baccarat, and, frankly, any "even chance" proposition:  There will be times of Domination.  There will be periods where one side has the better of the two and, therefore, is winning the bulk of the current decisions.  This, my friends, is domination.  And let us be very aware, domination can come in many different forms....streaks, chops, two's....and so forth.

What's that you say, gr8player, chops and two's can be forms of dominations as well?  YES, they most certainly can be.  After all, what is a straight chop (B P B P B P) if not a domination of OLD (read: opposite last decision).  And the two's (BB PP BB PP) are nothing more than a OTBL (read: opposite time before last) domination.  So doms are not necessarily confined to simply streaks of one side over the other; rather, they can come in various forms.

But, make no mistake of it, come they will.  If you track the B v P and the TBL v OTBL, you will come across doms.  So now, let's move on to the Anticipation portion of the program:

The better (read: sooner) you learn to anticipate doms, the more efficiently one becomes at "trapping" their immediate profits from same.  (In other words, the better you get at getting into them quicker, the LESS IMPORTANT it becomes for them to last "forever", as we all know they never do.  And here, my friends, is the key for "anticipation":

"Gap Allowance".  The player that is honing in on doms is always tracking for small "gap allowances", where the dominated side is hitting the very least (preferably one) times while the dominate side is getting their multiple wins.  So we seek the smallest "gap allowances" possible at the time; the "gap" being defined as the "intervals" (read: losses) between the multiple hits of the dominating side.  Again, preferably only one, but it can (and will, at times) go to two or even three, just so long as when it does revert back to the dom side, that dom side continues with multiple hits that are greater than the minor "gap allowance".

And then I look as well at the winning "footprints" of certain doms, such as:  Are they hitting "doubles" or "triples" or more?  Now there's where I'll utilize my money management, with positive play.  Furthermore, going back to the "gap allowances", based upon whether they are one's or two's, there's where I'll utilize my money management as well, this time with a bit of negative play.

But, for me at least, money management will never trump bet selection.  I need to be right more than I am wrong, especially when view play (as one should) over the long term.  I need to put my chips, however many they might be, into the correct circle more often than not, and, to me, there exist no better formula for that than my "Domination Anticipation" play.

As always, I wish all of you the very best of it.  Stay well.

I would like to wish a Happy New Year to all of our esteemed members and their loved ones, and offer a heartfelt prayer that this New Year 2016 sees us all in Good Health, Much Happiness, Safe and Protected, and Prosperous as well.  May God Bless all.

I posted a rare Trip Report last week, explaining some difficulties regarding profit acquisition, as I pocketed but 4 units for the entire trip.  I further stated that I would, as per my variance play/strategy, be raising my base unit size at next trip, all in anticipation of an "upward correction" in my variance and profit maximization of same.  I also said that you'd be able to read about next trip's results right here in this forum....well, as promised:

Wednesday afternoon session:

Yes, I raised my unit sizes by 50%, not a large raise, but just enough to capitalize on an expected good session with a corresponding expected better-than-average strike rate.  OK.  Bottom line:  33 bets placed, 19 bets won and 14 bets lost, 57.5% strike rate, and hit my session win goal of 5 units, all @50% higher denomination.  Bottom line #2:  In my trip report last week, I reported my difficulties (even though I still won 4 units for the trip) with my strike rates, and said that I expect an upward correction and that I would raise my bet size in anticipation....well, I was right.  My 57.5% made up for my just-below-50% of last week, and my larger-than-normal unit size increased my profit from it.  All expected, all, business-as-usual as it pertains to variance play.  So let's go a bit further about that, as I continue with this TR:

Wednesday night session:

Wow.  Back to regular sized units, here's how easy this one was:   I won my first bet, lost my second bet, and then proceeded to win the next 7 bets in-a-row.  I cashed out at +7.  Easy-peasy.  BUUUTTT, you guys that know me know that I'm a variance player, and I don't hit at 90% too often, and so while I certainly enjoyed the win, you know another adjustment is coming:

Thursday afternoon session:

After last night's breeze, I decided to cut back my unit size by 25%, in anticipation of a downward correction in my strike rate.  Well, I played a shoe-and-a-half (a very slow game, with no one betting....very frustrating) and won exactly nothing, breaking out dead-even with a 50% strike rate.

Thursday night session:

Still playing a lower unit size, as I still expect, maybe, a downward correction:  Nope.  Wrong.  I placed 38 bets, winning 21 while losing only 17, and so now I picked up 4 units, again at lesser-sized.

OK.  Last session of trip:  Friday afternoon session:

Again, lower-sized units (25% off).  And yet, again, I won 3 units in a relatively-quick "getaway-day" session, where if I'm either not doing as well as I'd like OR the game is a lousy one with slow players...in this case it was the latter...I look to pick up a quick profit (any profit) and go.  You never want to fall behind and having to play "catch up" in the middle of a lousy, slow game, especially on "get-away" day.  OK.  So another 3 units, again reduced.

So, stuff happens.  I play a variance game, and now I left some money on the table because of it.  Next week, I'm going back to original unit sizes.  I can't reduce off of 4- and 3-unit wins, and, remember, I didn't....I only reduced after winning 8 out-of-9 bets at session #2.  Then I simply kept the reduction throughout the remainder of the trip, just in case I happened to hit some difficulty with a downward correction.  Well, there was nothing "downward" about this trip.  I never raised my bet for the entire trip, as I was in "1-ville" in my Gr8Player's Progression the entire time, which relates to simple flat-betting.

So, yeah, wow.  One word: wow.  My bet selection process is as good as it gets, mostly because of:

1.)  Consistency.  I never change, I never falter.  I am very well aware that I am but one bad bet away from blowing it all, and so I never waver, I never change, and I never falter.  Consistency.

2.)  Strike rate.  Over 50%.  Impossible, you say?  Think again.  I pick only my selected spots, and they don't let me down, at least not for too long, which brings me to the last but not least:

3.)  Variance.  A measurable (read: tight) variance, both upwards and downwards, which allows me to adjust my bet sizes accordingly.  I know my statistics, and I bet accordingly.  Either in the name of recoup or in the name of profit maximization, I am of the opinion that I am virtually unbeatable over the long term.  All because I play statistics that always seem to stay within their lines.  And as long as they do so, I will prevail over the house's edge.

Heck, I even had a session "bust-out" a few weeks ago (I reported of that as well, right here in this forum.), but by way of adjusting my unit sizes after that much-larger-than-normal downward variance, I recouped virtually all of that loss in my next session, easily.  And, as I've always told you guys:  if you have an effective means of recouping your tougher-than-usual sessions, what remains of your easier much-more-usual winning ones:  They're All Profit!

Lastly, fellas, I've just got to say it:  How is it that more players don't play a "variance" game?  I mean, I'm there every week, and all I ever see are the same faces that all look alike, making the same bets over and over again, with no regard to any stats or any meaning at all, just hoping that the shoe will comply with their bets.  Now, don't get me wrong:  I, too, hope the shoe will comply with my bets.  But, the difference is:

1.)  I make the same bet all the time.  I don't look at the past results to figure out my next bet; I look only for my "trigger", and then I'll bet.

2.)  I have an answer, the correct answer, when my bets lose.  Knowing what to do when you're losing is the answer to any or all of your difficulties at this game, because, frankly, if you have the correct answer (yes, the answer IS variance play) then those problems are both short-lived and easily eradicated.

So why doesn't everybody play a variance game?  I just don't get it...is it because they would all simply rather GAMBLE with their money?  Witness the fella to my right on Thursday night's session:  He buys in for about a thousand dollars (I wasn't watching that closely to be sure...but a nice-enough fella, we were talking for a bit), and he couldn't lose a hand.  He must've won a thousand bucks in a quarter of a shoe.  So he says goodbye and leaves, smart move, nothing wrong with that.  But, now about 15 minutes later, back he comes, chips in hand, but now, he couldn't win a hand.  He lost back at least $1500 bucks...also in but a quarter-shoe.  Wham bam...he went from a nice winner to a garbage loser, in one fell swoop.  Now, what was he thinking?  Did he think he'd never lose a hand, because after he won and left, and when he came back, he was betting as big or even bigger than he was before.  Did he think he'd never lose a hand?  If he were playing a variance game, and given that he won almost every bet he'd made earlier, when he played again he would have adjusted his bets after such a positive variance, and he'd have lost at his minimum bet rather than his highest, or, heaven forbid, he might have even "no-betted" (read: sat out some hands) for a spell.

I just don't understand why more players do nothing and, worse, know nothing about variance.  Me?  I could not nor would not put a dollar onto the table without my variance stats at hand.  How the heck else am I supposed to know how much to bet?

I've been reluctant to posting any trip reports lately, as I'm not sure that anyone has any interest in reading of my grinding out rather consistent weekly 10 to 12 unit wins.  It all has the feel of "been there, done that" to it, so not much sense of a weekly rehash.

That all said, I do feel compelled to report what had transpired this past week, partly because it was out of the norm for me and partly because I happen to believe that we all benefit from the sharing of our experiences.

Let me begin by stating the fact that I won.  I won a total of 4 units for the trip, so it is not about any loss that I'm about to relate, rather the unusual circumstances that surrounded the entirety of the trip.

On my Thursday afternoon session, I started off my first set in my "7-series" with a minus 1, losing 4 bets while winning only 3.  Now, if any of you know anything of my play and my Gr8Player's Progression, I do not raise my bets into any -1 of any of my series'; I raise my bets only into any -3 (win 2, lose 5) or any -5 (win 1, lose 6) or, obviously, any -7 (win 0, lose 7).  So at only a -1, I remained at the same 1-unit level.

Well, as it turns out, it's a good thing I did.  Why?  Because I proceeded to lose the next 7 bets I made, going 0-for-7 for my next series of bets.  So the conservative version (the only mode I play) served me well in this instance, keeping my bets as low as possible into this horrible run.  But, I bring this session up not to discuss my progression, but to elaborate on that terrible losing jag.

I had lost the last bet in my first series and then proceeded to lose the next 7 in-a-row, leaving me with an 8-wide losing streak.  That's alot for me.  A whole lot.  Let's talk about that for a minute.  I must admit, I started doubting myself into that long losing jag.  You start thinking that you're never gonna win a hand again, or, at the very least, that these 20 units that I bought in for are doomed for failure/loss.  Now, I go into "2-ville" (2-unit bet sizing) in my progression, and I win the first bet, lose the next bet, won the next bet, but lost the next 3 bets.  Oh boy.  This, for me, is as bad as it gets for probably over 90% of my play, so believe me when I tell you that "I'm feelin' woozy" at this point.  Now, this brings me to something that I must expound on:

Consistency.  While the thought did enter my head, if I am going to be totally honest about it; but I NEVER CHANGED MY BET SELECTION PROCESS.  I remained consistent.  And why is consistency important?:  Variance.  You see, my friends, there simply exists no variance on mindless betting, on betting on "feel" or "looks" or "whatever"....there exists variance only for bets that are placed in a consistent fashion, time after time, bet after bet.  So, while I'm not exactly feeling very confident right about now, I plod on into this so-far stuff session:

I'm now down a total of 12 units (8 from base level and 4 units from my -2 in "2-ville").  I have but 8 units of session buy-in remaining.  I need to make a decision.  Let's see, I've lost my last 11 out of 13 bets placed.  11 out of 13!  In fact, for this session, so far, I've won only 5 out of 19 bets placed.  Holy cow, that's terrible for anyone's standards.  OK, back to the decision I need to make:

With only 8 units left, I decide to go into "3-ville" right now.  I figured that this losing jag is about as bad as it can get, so let's ramp up on recoup, for if it is going to happen, it's going to happen right quick.  Well, fortunately, it did.  I won the only 4 bets I needed to make in "3-ville", recouping every cent of my 12-unit drawdown in the process, and pulled even.  Even, and out.  I colored up and cashed out, frankly, feeling as if I'd won.  Why?  Because a loss, and a rather large one for me at that, looked looming, and I felt very fortunate to have fought it off and avoided it.

But, I gotta tell you....doubt crept in, and along with it the fear of losing my entire session bankroll.  I must admit the truth, I thought I was losing it.  I think that comes with consistent winning.  Losses (not all losses, just "entire"/larger-than-normal losses) that aren't expected are very difficult to accept.

But, it's happened before, and I do have a plan for it....I raise my base unit size for the next session in order to facilitate recoup.  But that doesn't make losing it all at any session any easier to swallow; it still hurts.

And look how I was doubting myself.  Unbelievable.  But that's why I've been espousing consistent play for all these years in these forums; you just have to stick with your planned method of play and have the faith in your statistics that it will, in the end, prevail.

It is what it is.  Welcome to the wacky world of Baccarat betting.  And trying to win over the long term.  Man, it ain't easy.  But, I suppose if it were easy, the game wouldn't exist.  So on and on we go.

I wish you all the very best of it.  Stay well.

While we all concentrate our efforts on developing the very best bet selection process along with the very best money-management plan in order to enhance our chances for success, sometimes the very best place to start on our quest is in the recognition and realization of knowing what we cannot do:

1.)  Control the cards....can't do it.  The cards will fall as they may, and there's simply nothing we can do about it.  So, knowing that, why let yourself get emotionally involved in the outcomes?  I'd try to detach myself from the hands as best that I'm able to, and simply record the results on my scorecard.  Tough beat, bad beat....bottom line, you lost the bet, no sense stewing over it.  It's just a wasted emotion anyhow, because you have nothing to do with the dealing or the natural order of the cards,  Best to realize that from the outset; you can't control the cards.

2.)  Win every session...can't do it.  It can't be done, so why waste all of your good time and energy in trying to come up with an "infallible" method of play when "infallible" is simply "impossible"?  You must learn to "walk a loser".  I've spoken of this a million times; if you cannot learn how to lose you will never, ever learn how to win over the long term.  Trying to win every session will, at some point or another, leave you in a hole so deep that it will swallow your bankroll whole.  Much better to try to limit the severity of your losses rather searching in vain for some sort of total avoidance, and much cheaper too.  Losses are inevitable....so much so, that they are actually accounted for in my game.  That's where my "recoup mode" comes in.  But not in this particular session; no, recoup will simply have to wait.  But there'd be no recoup mode at all if I ever let any session loss become too large and too unrecoverable.  So you learn to walk a loss.  Best to realize that from the outset; you can't win every session.

Knowing what you cannot do is probably the best beginning to trying to hone in on the specialized play that you're trying to develop, so that you can concentrate on what you can accomplish as opposed to what you cannot.  There's something very empowering when you know and learn to accept your limitations, for only then can you develop your play around your strengths.

For instance, I prefer a tight mode of play within rather short sessions.  I do not like elongated sessions, and so I play a tight game with a relatively-small win goal.  But I'll do that 2 or 3 times a day.  Why do I prefer shorter sessions?  Because I play a "variance" game, where I can adjust my session unit sizes based upon the recent results of my latest sessions.  So, more sessions equals more input, more stats.  And "tighter" (read: more relevant) stats.  And so it goes for my style of play, my approach to this game.

I must be doing something right, for I'm quite certain I'm as close to a "flat-bettor" (read: level stakes) as most any player could be.  Especially in the midst of a session; I'm mostly flat-betting, only with occasional 2-unit or, dare I say, a 3-unit bet.  My play is probably the most boring thing you'd ever wish to witness.  Two units up, one unit down or three units up, two units down....flat-betting can take a toll on a player's patience.  But if your bet selection process and its accompanying variance is worth its weight at all....flat-betting with session-to-session "adjustments" (read: variance-based unit-size movements) is the be-all and the end-all; it's unbeatable.

And it all began with knowing what I cannot do, knowing what I couldn't control....only then could I develop a game that played to my strengths, all by learning to control that which I am able to.

As always, I wish it for all of you.

OK.  Those that follow my posts are aware of my recent winning streak; I hadn't lost a session in quite some time.  And those same people would also know, through my posts, that I was concerned about the sustainability of that streak; so much so that I even lowered my betting units in order to lessen any damage from the impending correction.  My bet selection process is a good one, but it ain't that good, and so the downward correction was imminent.  Well, witness this past trip:

On Thursday afternoon's session, I could not win a hand.  Bad beat after bad beat, I simply could not win a hand, losing the first 8 out of 9 bets I made (at one point, 7 losses in a row!).  Now, even with the "expected/imminent" downward correction, let me tell you, it ain't fun and it is frustrating.  Prepared is one thing, but losing is another, and always hurts.  I tried battling through it, but every time it looked as if my plays might be picking up, back down they went.  As did my session bankroll...as I finished with a 20-unit loss.  (Sidenote:  I buy in for 20 units, and that is, however rare, my absolute max loss limit.)

That, my friends, is alot for me; as you know, I always err on the side of caution.  I could have, and SHOULD HAVE, quit the session when I had battled back to a minus 5, but no, I am so used to the battle and so used to skirting (read: getting back to "even") these bad sessions that I played on, but it was simply not meant to be.  So, a minus 20 it is, and that was that.

Well, now, let's get on to my "loss eradication" strategy:

You guys know that I play a "variance" game.  My variances are proven stats, and I trust in them fully.  So, with that in mind, how do I handle that 20-unit blowout from earlier that day?  Buy ramping up my units size THREE-FOLD.  That's right, 3 times the size of my units at the prior session.  I felt there simply ain't no way I'm going to go any further than the 11-below (I lost 11 more bets that I had won on that losing session), and so now the time is ripe for recoup.  But, I still didn't want to have to exceed my normal win goal strategy; so the only answer was to ramp it up.  And ramp it up I did:

(Sidenote:  In fact, I was so confident in my upward-variance correction at this next session, that I bought in for only 10 units, as these were much-larger units than I'd normally play with.)

OK.  So what do you think happened on Thursday night?  Well, I bet you didn't guess this:  I didn't play.  Oh, don't get me wrong, I went to the tables.  In fact, at one point, I had my money and my player's card in hand, ready to buy in.  But, I never pulled the trigger.  I simply didn't like what the shoes looked like, and I simply wasn't "feeling it".  And, maybe, just maybe, Thursday wasn't my day.  So, after 2 full hours of simply watching, I called it a day, and left.  I would play, however, with no hesitation, on Friday (yesterday):

Well, things started rather well.  I won my first two bets, and the first 4 out of five.  But then lost a few, and actually, at one point in the session, I was down 2 units.  But, I proceeded to win the last 7 bets I made, and the first 2 of those bets were in "2-ville" of my Gr8Player's Progression.  All said and done, I won 6 units and colored up.

Total loss for the trip:  $100.  A stinkin' hundred bucks.  Heck, I TIP that in the steakhouse when my wife my kids join me.  So, bottom line:  I effectively "eradicated" that 20-unit loss from the day before.  Done and done.

And that is the name of my variance-based game:  Loss Eradication.

You see, my friends, when you play a mode of game that can effectively eliminate those rare but still nasty losses, ALL YOU ARE LEFT WITH IS PURE PROFIT ON YOUR EASIER, WINNING SESSIONS.  (Sidenote:  Well, wait, not ALL of those profitable sessions are pure profit, as this last one was for recoup purposes only, hence the much-higher unit size.  But, still, certainly MOST of my winning sessions are, in fact, for pure profit, because, usually, I can battle back from the more difficult ones, and quit at either even or a very minor loss.)

Look, losses happen. Nothing much we can do about it, so best learn to accept it.  But, that said, if one wishes to get the better of this game, over the long run, one NEEDS an EFFECTIVE LOSS-ERADICATION strategy.  And, in my humble opinion, that can only come with a just-as-effective VARIANCE PLAY strategy.  Knowing your limits...both on the up- AND the down-side...is both vital and imperative.  For only then can you manipulate your bet sizing to your ADVANTAGE.

And, as always, I wish it for all of you.

Question:  Is it possible for a loss to be a "good" loss?
Answer:  Absolutely.

OK.  So it begs the next question:  How can a loss EVER be considered a "good" one?
And now, the final answer:  When it is a "virtual loss".

Before I get into all of the inherent advantages that accompany "virtual losses", I will begin with the definition:

A "virtual loss" is, simply stated, any loss that you did not bet into.  Now, make no mistake of it, it is a loss; a loss to your preferred bet placement method.  It is to be marked as a loss on your scorecard (either physically or, at least, mentally) and it is a loss that counts as would any other; in other words, a loss is still a loss, "virtual" or otherwise, and should be treated as such.

BUUUTTT, the inherent advantages of "virtual losses" are HUGE:

1.)  They cost you NOTHING but time.  Not one cent of your bankroll.  (Begs another question, doesn't it?:  What is of more value to you in the long run at the Bac tables, your time or your MONEY?)

2.)  They serve to reduce stress; the stress related to the long-term battle that we face at each and every hand/shoe/session.  In other words, "virtual losses", losses that cost us nothing, can be rather relieving, especially to our psyche.

3.)  They can, most often, aid us in both getting (and betting) into the "more-favorable conditions" of our preferred bet placement strategies more often AND get us to our win goals easier/quicker.  How so?  Well, at Baccarat, we are playing, regardless of our bet placement preferences, basically a 50/50 game.  And in that 50/50 game, the swings, or "variances" (as I prefer to call them), can come in waves that can, at times, be rather difficult to navigate.  So it only makes perfect sense that the "absorption of virtual losses" into our preferred bet placement strategies can ONLY SERVE TO REDUCE OUR NEGATIVE VARIANCES.  Now, make no mistake of it, sometimes it may work better than other times, but, IT CAN ONLY HELP.

So what does this all mean to us in the end?  It means that when the patient and disciplined player is sitting at the table AWAITING THE CORRECT PLAYING CONDITIONS BEFORE PLACING A REAL BET, they are actually reaping the rewards associated with the ABSORPTION OF VIRTUAL LOSSES; losses that cost us NOTHING.

In fact, there are times when I'm awaiting my preferred placements to come to the fore-front, and I'm actually pleased with the wait.  I'm pleased because I KNOW that, sooner or later, MY preferred placement strategy will show itself.  And the longer I wait, the more sure of that fact I am.  And therein builds my confidence in my overall game.

So, you see what happens here?  It's all good.  Wading through virtual losses is GOOD.  And it's CHEAP. And it's REWARDING in the end.  Can you see that?

Here's hoping you can.  Stay well.

Long before I'd even heard of Baccarat, I was a fan of horse racing.  Being born and raised in New York, I've always had relatively easy access to our local Aqueduct and Belmont racetracks.  Right now, and throughout the summer, the races are held in upstate historic Saratoga; by far and away the most popular, both in fans and in betting dollars, in the state (if not the country).

Now, here's the thing about Saratoga:

It's vast popularity and betting creates the need for longer-than-usual spaces between the races.  Where Aqueduct and Belmont might run within 20 or 22 minutes, Saratoga runs races spaced almost 1/2 hour apart.  So during the Saratoga meet I sit on my deck, with my lap-top, and I read either the newspaper or a book, as I await the next race.  (I don't need to handicap, because I prefer to do that in the morning; that way the current odds can never influence my opinion.)  I'm not in love with such a long wait between the races, but such is life for the Saratoga bettor.  And so I've learned to live with it.

Now the point of this post:

IF one can wait almost 30 minutes between races at the racetrack, WHY CAN'T one wait between bets at the Baccarat table?  What stops us from using this "racetrack analogy" to our advantage at the Baccarat table.....where we learn to sit and wait?

Far be it for me to answer for any of you, but I must confess: it's helped me in my play tremendously.  And I'll explain how:

First and foremost, the patience.  Look, at Baccarat, most times, I needn't wait 30 minutes between bets, so let me get that out of the way from the outset.  But, that said, I DO, in fact, WAIT.  I await triggers and I await "textures".  (Let me define "textures":  For example, if I see a shoe with an inordinate amount of runs at the outset, I'm honing in on betting opposites as soon as they begin to show.  I call that formation a "texture", where the shoe, in this example, is "leaning toward choppiness".)

The next advantage of the "wait" is the most important:  virtual losses.  Please never underestimate the importance of virtual losses in your play.  These are losses to your preferred style of play that, because of the "wait", because of your patience, COST YOU NOT ONE DIME.  Please do not underestimate the value in that style of play.  I, for one, with all of my experience at this game, COULD NOT SURVIVE IT WITHOUT "VIRTUAL LOSSES".

So what does this "wait" do for you?  You learn patience and you learn discipline.  And it saves you MONEY.  Just recently (this week's trip), the player to my left turned to me in-between shoes and commented to me about my patience. (Actually, he also wanted me to cut the cards for the new shoe, because, as he also said to me: "you're very lucky"....two things I'll say about that....1.) I wouldn't cut the cards because I had no intention of playing that shoe...my win goal was already procured; and 2.) it ain't luck; it's all a part of my planned play.  Luck comes to those prepared to accept it.)

So this Saratoga meet, with it's long pause between races, actually is a good lesson for the serious player.  You learn to relax, you learn to step back, you learn to accept any single win and/or any single loss WITHOUT the urge to "tilt it up" at the quickest moment possible; and, ultimately, all of these learned things are major pluses for anyone's game.  In a nutshell, you learn to take a breath and re-evaluate your currents positions regarding your mindset, your play, and your money....you learn to relax and re-figure in order to make the best decisions for yourself....funny thing about this game, NO ONE can do it for you....it's all on you.

Just remember that every time you're awaiting your trigger, or every time you're awaiting the shoe's "texture" to come into line with your preferred play, just remember that you're learning both patience and discipline AND you're SAVING MONEY by letting all those "virtual losses" go by WITHOUT it costing you anything but time.

I take this "racetrack analogy" so seriously that I've gone so far as to label my scorecards at each session as "Race 1" for the first shoe and "Race 2" for the second shoe and so forth.  To me, anything that assists me in my patience and my discipline can only be regarded as a plus to my style of play.

And, now as always, I wish it for all of you.  Stay well.

The time has come.  I am leaving my full-time job to pursue a steady income at Baccarat. 

Now, I do not expect to replace my occupational income, for that would require me to virtually "live" at the Bac tables.  It's just that my job description has changed so dramatically over the past few years that I feel now the time is ripe for me to leave this job in the dust.  So while I won't be able to match my occupational income, I do feel that I can make a very decent supplemental income at Baccarat that should suffice my needs perfectly.

Now, let me make one thing very clear here:  While I am confident in my abilities at the Bac tables, I am guaranteed nothing.  My next bet could just as easily lose as it can win, so I'm about to "ride that roller coaster" that is real Baccarat play.  I am not naïve enough to think that I have any guarantee of success.

But, that said, I can only rely on my current Bac results, and, my friends, they are, IMHO, phenomenal.  My Bac game is to the point now where I am mostly simply flat-betting, with only some occasional bet-size rearrangements.

I've said it for years....one needs a bet selection process (I use the word "process" for a reason -- for it's not a mechanical bet selection, it is an experience-based PROCESS) that wins more often than it loses.  Let me repeat that, lest anyone think that they can beat this game with the brute force of their bankroll:  One must have a bet selection process that rises into positive territory (read:  above 50%) over the long term.  My friends, please trust me on this:  Lacking that positive bet selection process, there ain't enough money in the world to cover the imminent draw-downs that can be suffered.

So I mostly flat it; if I hit that "more difficult" shoe, I might inclined to adjust my unit size slightly, but that's much more the exception rather than the norm....I am much more a believer in my "no-bet" option in those difficult sections of the shoe; so that it becomes more a game of bankroll preservation for me as opposed to the more-stressful and ever-dangerous game of bankroll risk.

Lastly, as to my thread's title of "Wish Me Well"....I've been frequenting these forums for years now, and I have ALWAYS wished the best for every member/poster that I've encountered over those years.  I seek only that same respect, especially considering my rather dramatic vocational shift.

Anyhow, I will try to keep you guys posted as these coming weeks and months and years play out for me.....wish me well.

I trend.  That's the crux of my Baccarat play and approach, I trend.

Now, why would I choose to play like that?  After all, aren't these cards simply pieces of plastic with pips on them?  So how in the heck are they supposed to, somehow, conform to my way of thinking and to my approach to this game and form any kind of TRENDS?  Impossible, right?  And, lastly, isn't it true that it is all in our heads, this "trend" thing, where we're simply "making something of absolutely nothing"?

One word answer:  W.R.O.N.G!

Trends happen.  They ARE REAL.  Like it or not, they ARE REAL.

That's EXACTLY WHY I play this closed-end shoe game...no other reason.  There are, unquestionably, certain traits, certain characteristics, in each and every dealt shoe.  Those traits, those characteristics...they are trends, constantly forming and, well, un-forming.

Now...the key...the KEY...is in the WHEN you see them:

Do you spot trends after they're about exhausted?

OR, hopefully, can you spot them at their ONSET; in other words, can you ANTICIPATE them?

Ahhh, my friends, those true trenders that truly believe in their trending game....those are the players that can anticipate shoe changes and trends in their earliest stages.

Those are the real trending believers....those THAT CAN.

Does it mean they're always right?  Of course not.

Last Thursday night/Friday afternoon sessions, I must've lost 5 bets in-a-row at least twice, maybe three times.  So what?

I've faith in my trends, and I know they'll come around, if only I stay patient, stay the course.

And, sure enough, they did...my winning for those two sessions was 10 1/2 units, after comm.

Now, does MM come into play?  Sure it does.  My preferred trends will, usually, when I'm right, bring wins in "clusters", and so I do a lot of parlaying.  (Sidenote:  By "a lot", I mean that I do it often, but not consecutively...I won't go further than simply a two-stage parlay...1 - 2.)

So, in effect, I can suffer 6 straight losses and lose, well, 6 units; but whenever I win 6 bets in-a-row, I'll pick up 9 units.  That's 50% more than I lost.  Now, can't we all agree that we do need to win more on our winners than we lose on our losers?  Well, OK, yes...to a point.  we never our bets outside of our comfort zone...rather, the example I showed was utilizing the exact same unit size...no bump-up at all.

So while we want to win more, especially for recoup and/or profit purposes, we don't want to do it in any "suicidal" manner...for, eventually, you will "kill off" your entire bankroll.

So we try to control our bets, and, when necessary, raise them only incrementally.

But, as to where I choose to bet, I choose to trend.  I'll get on as early as I can, attempting to ANTICIPATE the twists and turns of each shoe (or portion thereof)....when I'm wrong my loss is kept as minimal as possible, but when I'm right I'll effectively pick up some nice parlays.

The key to trending is consistency (stick with your preferred plays) and early betting triggers (or anticipation, if you will) in order to glean as much as you can from that current trend.

I wish you all the very best of it.

Quote from: VLS on August 27, 2014, 10:46:46 PM
"So we choose when we want to play, we choose the side we wish to play on, and we get to select the amount of our bet, and even can terminate any session at our optimal time.  Sweeeet, ain't it?"

-gr8player

Thank you, Victor, for opening this most pertinent topic:

You see, fellas, we have, each of us, certain Player's Edges, and I list them as follows:

1.)  We can bet where we want.  (Our own personal bet selection process is strictly our choosing.)

2.)  We can bet what we want.  (Our own personal bet sizes, and adjustments thereof...read:  money-management...is strictly our choosing.)

3.)  We can "no-bet" when we want.  (Never, ever discount that most powerful tool in our arsenal...the "No-Bet".  We can, when the shoe is not cooperating as much as we'd prefer it to, decide simply to "sit it out"... a priceless characteristic of Baccarat.)

4.)  We can terminate a session when we want.  (Optimal "exit strategies" are a vital part of our chances for long-term success at this game; especially if you're seeking to train yourself how to accept a WIN, any win.  Trust me, you do that, and they'll all begin to add up rather handsomely over time.)

Those are our Player's Edges.  Use them wisely, my friends, for they are truly invaluable.