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Messages - KungFuBac

#1
Personally, I'm partial to Bellagio's. First class atmoshphere along with well trained professional staff.
The ranking IMO is reasonable and justified. I've played many times at all (except Aria). I seldom play at Aria but hear good things from locals, so I don't have an informed opinion.

Red Rock is nice, clean, and a quiet atmosphere. I don't play there very often.

Any and all opinions are welcomed.


https://www.gambleonline.co/casino/land-based/las-vegas/baccarat/
#3
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: cryptocurrency and me
Yesterday at 04:24:21 PM
"...Just wait 5-6 months to see an all time high price, easily going over $80k...."

I will revisit this thread in less than 5-6 months. The lessons to be learned could be better stated as: "Some lessons can't be taught."

I do admire the marketing of bitcoin et al cryptos as it will go down in history as a marketing masterpiece. The gold-colored coin with a capitol "B" along with a $ sign. Marketing genius. I wonder why they didn't choose a rock, stick, SIM card, computer mouse,..etc.

The losers are ill-informed buyers caught up in the spiral of greed. The result is a massive transfer of wealth from ordinary families to internet promoters. Opinion by Kungfubac.

Some of the early clues that crypto was on a hype train and not a sound financial investment:

a)The U.S. media was all for it and incessantly singing the praises and virtues of all things cryptos.
Financial gurus such as Michael Saylor, Max Kaiser, Jim Cramer,...etc  plugged it every chance(until it tanked numerous times. Jim Cramer has for years had a financial show on CNBC, written books,...etc. His picks have been so horrendous for the past three(as in 30yrs)  decades that a (Anti Jim Cramer) stock index has been formed, lol. The (SJIM). He still writes books and has a financial advice show.

b) It was first proclaimed to be a currency, now, a commodity, IMO a commodity at best.

c) It can't go up unless someone pays you more for it. The greater fools theory fits it best vs Ponzi scheme. A ponzi scheme runs out of new investors and the perpetrator runs out of funds to make any payouts. See Bernie Madoff.

We all could buy 10,000 items with it tomorrow and it wouldn't necessarily go up(or down). It does nothing and produces nothing. An interesting and theoretical concept, at best.

d) It helps to understand that a bitcoin has no value at all.

Since its inception promoters incessantly claim cryptocurrency is valuable as (1) a means of payment, (2) a store of value and/or (3) a thing in itself. None of these claims are true.

1. Means of Payment. Bitcoins are accepted almost nowhere vs proclamations of everywhere, and most cryptocurrencies nowhere at all. Even where accepted, a currency whose value can swing 10 percent or more in a single day is useless as a means of payment.

2. Store of Value. Extreme price volatility also makes bitcoin undesirable as a store of value. And the storehouses — the cryptocurrency trading exchanges — are far less reliable and trustworthy than ordinary banks and brokers.

3. Thing in Itself. A bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It only has value if people think other people will buy it for a higher price — the Greater Fool theory.

Cryptocurrency is best-suited for one use: Criminal activity. Because transactions can be anonymous — law enforcement cannot easily trace who buys and sells — its use is dominated by illegal endeavors.

Most heavy users of bitcoin are criminals, such as Silk Road and WannaCry ransomware. Too many bitcoin exchanges have experienced spectacular heists, such as NiceHash and Coincheck, or outright fraud, such as Mt. Gox and Bitfunder. Way too many Initial Coin Offerings are scams — 418 of the 902 ICOs in 2017 have already failed.
*Note--See FTX, See Sam Bankman-Fried.

Bitcoin transactions are sometimes promoted as instant and nearly free, but they're often relatively slow and expensive. It takes about an hour for a bitcoin transaction to be confirmed, and the bitcoin system is limited to five transactions per second. MasterCard can process 38,000 per second. Transferring $100 from one person to another costs about $6 using a cryptocurrency exchange, and well less than $1 using an electronic check.

Bitcoin is absurdly wasteful of natural resources. Because it is so compute-intensive, it takes as much electricity to create a single bitcoin — a process called "mining" — as it does to power an average American household for two years. If bitcoin were used for a large portion of the world's commerce (which won't happen), it would consume a very large portion of the world's electricity, diverting scarce power from useful purposes.

Not a peep from the climate folks and environmentalists.


I agree with most of the opinions above. Reference and kudos also go to B. Harris, former CEO of Intuit and founding CEO of PayPal and Personal Capital. He has written many fine articles regarding all things bitcoin.



#4
Baccarat Forum / Re: BACCARAT:Read EVENTS of triplets
February 18, 2024, 06:56:18 PM
Thx PatternAnalys/good post.

Interesting concepts.

I have previously seen approaches doing this with strings of five. A friend in Biloxi,Ms,USA plays similarly with strings of eight(then after seeing the first X in the string wagers a seven-step gradual Marty against the whole 8-event string repeating in precisely the same order,...etc.
I do not play this way and have not tried it.

Is this your main M.O. ?? Ang long term data?



Continued Success,
#5
congrats on hitting the F7s.

"...And a few of us used the Bead Plate as guidance and wagered heavy every time the 2nd and 3rd lines came up.  It was sweet...."

:applause:


Continued Success,
#6
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: cryptocurrency and me
February 18, 2024, 06:42:33 PM
Me above:"... Personally, I do not currently own Bitcoin, though I have recently purchased two installments($13.01,$11.50) of BITI (Proshare Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF), which moves in the opposite direction of Bitcoin futures. Its my opinion we..."

I added another tier on BITI (Proshare Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF) this past week at $10.40. I do not currently own any long postions in bitcoin.


Re: Bitcoin halving. Supposedly "halving" is part of the Bitcoin network's code to reduce inflationary pressure on the cryptocurrency and willcut the rewards in half for successfully mining a bitcoin block. this allegedly makes obtaining or mining new bitcoin much harder--has historically preceded bull runs.

    Personally I do indeed perceive a "halfing" is about to occur. In the not too distant future.


https://petergrandich.com/bit-con-take-2-and-many-of-the-crypto-nuts-cult-members-with-it/



I hope all currently holding bitcoin make a bundle (reminder, its always a good idea to take profits). Just like at the Bac table.



Continued Success,
#7
Congrats to all with winning super bowl wagers.

That would not be I(I wasn't near a book so couldn't place any wagers). IF I could I would have and would have lost.
I liked SF -points at any spot below <=2.5. As we all know (3) is one of the magic point numbers to watch for when wagering football(based on the way fb is scored).

I actually perceived this was historically one of the better "value bets" for superbowls as the line surprisingly hovered around 2.0--2.5 in the two weeks leading up to kickoff. I would have guessed it would have begun the week at 3.0 or 3.5 thus creating numerous  "push" opportunities for the books.

I didn't watch the game but based on box scores and highlights it appears that it was a well played and tight game for the most part(a few unnecessary penalties for 49ers).

*As 8OR9 mentioned "before" the superbowl the chiefs DC Steve Spagnoula would play a vital part in the W. He most certainly did a great job. I saw a couple days ago he received a well-deserved extension/pay raise. Good for him.

** I also saw where 49ers DC steve wilkes was fired.



Congrats to all,



#8
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: cryptocurrency and me
February 11, 2024, 04:39:59 PM
Hi albalaha.

I agree it could continue the upward trajectory. Though my research back before the ETF introduction was that it could hit <= 50,000 prior to <= 4/24. I also feel it could someday hit the ~~85,000 range prior to plummeting once again. I'm most certainly not suggesting it has any intrinsic value. I'm just suggesting it could indeed go much higher and people can indeed make money with it. IF their timing is right.

It's my opinion the artificial manipulation is very clear. Personally, I do not currently own Bitcoin, though I have recently purchased two installments($13.01,$11.50) of BITI (Proshare Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF), which moves in the opposite direction of Bitcoin futures. Its my opinion we will see significant decline in Bitcoin <= it hits 50,000. If I owned Bitcoin I certainly wouldn't leave my positions in an unprotected state as it could move (5%--15%) overnight or within a few days.

The hype schemes from early buyers and large BTC holders is reminiscent of other ponzi-type schemes such as the Tulipmania: About the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble. 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp


Some of the nonsensical headlines I saw this past week include:


Is Bitcoin the new gold? Cathie Wood and Fidelity

Investing in 'Gold'--Via Bitcoin--Is Cheaper Than Ever

Why Bitcoin won't reach $1,000,000 but you should buy anyway

Is Bitcoin the new digital gold




Continued Success,
#9
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
February 11, 2024, 04:10:59 PM
Thx Asym.
I read all your posts re: grouping or clustering effects.

Can you respond a little more on your ABCD lines above. Sometimes I find it helpful to observe the clustering and run lengths as it helps me identify the "weak link" which in turn tells me the current strong side. The key in my opinion is early detection as just one or two spots earlier winning spots can often mean the difference in our "Win-In-A-Row" length (At least for me).


Continued Success,
#10
Off-topic / Re: Photo Ops
February 11, 2024, 03:57:37 PM
Thx alrelax. Awesome pics/thx for taking the time to post. Did you take with your smart phone or other camera?

*I like to go deep sea fishing a lot and one of the most serene feelings is being out in the ocean so far one can't see land. Then watching as the sun starts setting/dropping below the horizon and distant water levels. It makes one realize we are such a tiny speck in the big scheme of things. 



Continued Success,
#11
8OR9: "...The most important person in the Super Bowl is not a player but Stephen Christopher Spagnuolo, who is the KC Defensive Coach and was responsible for shutting down the Baltimore Ravens.

If he can shut down the SF offence, KC is the winner..."


Good observation 8OR9. A couple days ago the sports handicapping GOAT "Billy Walters" did an interview at the Superbowl festivities and suggested the same thing. He noted that was one of KC main strengths. He thought the 49ers defensive coach Steve Wilkes was, in his words, "mediocre at best". He also gave an edge to KC qb Pat Mahomes because he previously played in Superbowls vs SF qb Brock "The Glock" Purdy.

*I am also a little suspicious that Billy Walters would openly state his picks so maybe he has other motives. In my opinion a gambler (i.e., Investor) is a gambler 24-7.
BW liked KC at +2 and moneyline is now moving to ~~ 110--115 and I saw a couple books actually moved the line down to KC =+1.5 this morning. B. Walters suggested he may buy some points to move it @ +3, and take KC and the points.

Im still going with "The Glock",  @ -1.5


Wishing everyone a winning ticket.
#12
Good review and worth the bump.

"...Be smart, stay conscious—stay alert—keep your brain working and fill your conscious with the illusions, perceptions, influences and correct frame-of-minds that will lead you to profitable and non-egotistic and knoweldabgle wins with the correct time to stop and retreat.  Be ready to pounce on those small sections identified by their turning points when the shoe does produce welcoming opportunities to clearly 'smack the casino' as they say.  But you are only going to be able to do that by not getting lazy, not getting over confident, not believing negative progression will make you whole, not being overly influenced with garbage, false illusions, fake and worthless perceptions and a proper frame-of-mind.,,,"


My great uncle once told me:

"Grasshopper, when at the Bacs table one should play scared, but play with no fear"

                                                                               --Confucius
#13
I like the 49ers. I don't watch NFL football, however, I do like the SF qb Brock Purdy.

The current (2/3/24) consensus favorite from major books has SF @ -2, and -110 on the moneyline. One book is offering SF at -2, -105. So I would definitely take the moneyline bet @ 105 since anything less than 130 on the moneyline makes the moneyline a superior bet(better value bet) vs the (-2). Of course Im banking on "Big Clock" Brock having a great game.


I agree coach Andy Reid is a wise old veteran coach with decades of experience. So I'm hesitant to go against him. Same as for the KC qb Mahomes as he too has been here before. When in doubt I tend to go with the older more experienced guy(same as in gaming). Old veteran players just know a few more "tricks-to-the-trade".

It should be a good game.


PS
For anyone that likes the underdog(KC) with the spread at (2) the key metric for the money line is +108. So anything better than 108 makes the moneyline bet a slightly better value  VS (-2) points. Meaning if you are getting 2 points, that's the moneyline equivalent of taking no points and getting $108 for a $100 bet.
It is currently at 110 at most books with one book offering 115.



Best of luck to all,


#14
Off-topic / Re: What else besides baccarat?
February 03, 2024, 01:06:35 AM
Thx AD. Nice pic of the planes(and the bike too).
Good background info on the Thunderbird display.
I've never been to Mn or South Dakota, USA (though I have watched every episode of the Fargo tv series, lol). I like the accent from that area of the country.

Re: What else besides Baccarat ?
I too play Roulette some (or at least in past couple years). Many of my cas only have one Bac table or if they have >=2 tables they usually don't open them until afternoon. So, I kill time by playing roulette. Though I do play it seriously and to make money.





Continued Success,
#15
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 26, 2024, 03:43:57 AM
Hi Asym. How are the tables treating you.

Above u say: "...  longer streaks (say 5-5+) tend to dispose themselves by three different shapes:

a) Singularly interspersed between lower degree patterns (singles/doubles/triples and 4s)

b) Diluted or not showing up at all

c) Clustered (back to back) at various levels of consecutiveness and density.

Each shape of presentation has its merits with important practical reflexes.

Shape a) is the more likely course of presentation and could be applied at lower streak levels (4s or 3s).
Actually a (risky and unnecessary) multilayered progressive plan adopted to get 5s, 4s or 3s showing up as 'isolated' cannot be wrong for long as the isolated/clustered streak ratio tends to produce low sd values...."


Q1 In the BOLD you are saying the optimum method to catch a >=5IAR streak(e.g., ppppp or bbbbb) is to watch for them to be positioned in a cluster of 3iar/4iar streaks(e.g. ppp bbbb ppppp)
Yes No ??

Q2 If you were assigned the task to win 5 bets in a row would it not be easier to try and catch say two wins from a 3iar streak and maybe three more wins from a 4iar streak(Since 3iar and 4iar are indeed in most shoes)???

Yes no other??


Thx in advance,