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#1
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by alrelax - Today at 10:47:04 AM
You said:  "IMO at baccarat there's nothing to guess or hope for, just making ourselves in the best position to grasp the probability spots where a so called 'independent' and finite world should produce more likely situations acting at various levels of probability."

4). The Continuance.  Recognize and be totally conscious of the absolute fact, that as you continue your play you subject yourself to additional losses and wins.  The bridge between your exit point is a 'seesaw'.  (You remember that long wood plank with the two handles on it, in a kids playground it took two to ride).

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.
#2
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - Today at 02:27:13 AM
Guessing and playing the probabilities

IMO at baccarat there's nothing to guess or hope for, just making ourselves in the best position to grasp the probability spots where a so called 'independent' and finite world should produce more likely situations acting at various levels of probability.

Obviously in some way such statement must negate the perfect 'independence' of the outcomes, yet we've seen that even at coin flip successions where itlr A=B, some A patterns are more probable to come out first than some B patterns.

An easy corollary of that is that B 'slower' patterns sooner or later MUST come out clustered in order to catch up their 'temporary' more normal deficit.
We do not know the precise situations when this thing will happen but we do know that it will surely happen.

A good rule of thumb not to be ever forgotten is that the more we're trying to 'guess' or 'hope for' greater is the probability that our money will fall into casino's pockets, as no matter how smart we're or sophisticated is our plan, every single bet is still math EV-.
So we need a quite strong 'probability' plan capable to lower, erase or invert the constant unfair payement we're facing at every bet we'll place.

In poorer words, educated 'probability' possibly working at our favor cannot be increased by a simple MM plan as it must be measured first by a strict FB approach.
And this FB edge comes out by over selecting the bettable spots that must overpass the 'normal' and the more likely negative levels of variance.

It's the same opposite assumption taken by casinos that would get 'miserable' profits by only exploiting their 1.25% or so math edge, instead constantly focused to let winning players to get the invariable losing streaks they're entitled to suffer if they're hopelessly guessing hands around any corner.

That's why a minimum profitable effect (MPE) applied to some events will put the casinos to hope for very unlikely clustered scenarios before getting our money.
If we've measured that MPE events > anything else, we're playing with a robust edge.

as.
#3
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: Worst bet to try generally...
Last post by Garnabby - Yesterday at 05:54:12 PM
Holy cow!  You guys are still at it.  Even ADulay, of BeatTheCasino "fame".  I wonder whatever happened to old Silly.  Ha.
#4
Wagering & Intricacies / Hot Streak Fallacy & Dueness F...
Last post by alrelax - Yesterday at 04:22:40 PM
There are lots of ways to wager with as well as, against presentments of a Baccarat shoe. Two extremely dangerous fallacies come to mind that coexist with most peoples play. Read on.

And those coincide with attempting and desiring to beat the game instead of playing along with it. Remember that.

So, let's define what those two are.

1). Hot Streak Fallacy

2). Dueness Fallacy

Both can be very intricate events in all sections within a shoe, one way or another. It is the law of small numbers because regression to the mean will be encountered.  However, events such as chop-chop, 1s and 2s, clumping, natural and then cut or stick, ties and then cut or stick, etc.  You cannot get around them and you are subject to them one way or another.

Hot Streak Fallacy

A biased combination of hands that convinces the player they had found a holy grail and to usually continue with it. In other words, the player takes on an immediate thought process he has 'almost' guaranteed chances of continued wins with further attempts no matter what the presentments continue or turn to doing.  Even after the event is finished.

While he is winning, all is good. However, those wins usually have convinced the player to continue and stay with whatever was winning. Thus causing the player to give back his wins and subject his buy-in and additional pocket money to quick or eventual loss to the casino.

Therefore the player puts himself into a false illusion of control which will always have negative downsides.

Can you combat Hot Streak Fallacy? Absolutely. And it is quite simple, I have written about it numerous times. I call it, remaining absolutely neutral. You don't have to give up the camaraderie of being in or on a hot streak at the table, but do remain neutral with complete consciousness about what is going to happen in a short order of time. Do not alter reality of the game of baccarat and its ability to present anything and everything as well as nothing, within the shoe or shoes you are playing.

Dueness Fallacy

The Dueness Fallacy must be likened to the poisson distribution probability.

In short, that is a probability theory and statistics for the distribution of events occurring in a fixed interval of time in space. Example.  1 million shoes of Baccarat, approximately 80 million hands, divided by any number of shoes you wish to get a mean average for the events that might or might not occur. The only problem with doing that, is the mass function of the actual occurrences can never be broken down to replicate themselves in any order that will be representative of a number of shoes you can actually play in a session or many sessions, independently or on going. And that is contrary to what so many absolutely have convinced themselves that they can do.

And while there are a great amount of distribution probabilities within a shoe of baccarat, there will be a few player advantaged events that happen a greater amount of times than others, such as clumping and equalization.

And while those do happen much more than other events in baccarat, you will never be able to identify when, where and how long those events will last or any other event.

So, is something (event-chain of events) really due in a shoe Baccarat? If it is, why and what guarantees that or those events to appear. Years of playing this game provides me with the answer. Nothing does.

From the amount of fortune sevens, to the event of every natural cutting to the opposite side, to the hand after ties sticking or cutting sides, to numerous other events, will never be known when their occurrences will be presented or for how long.

Summation.  Do not fall prey.  Be smart and take advantage when presentments begin without believing the shoe has to do anything at anytime or for a certain period of hands, etc.
#5
Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: MGM Makes Surprising Las V...
Last post by alrelax - Yesterday at 03:36:18 PM
Yes, absolutely!  However, I have not played Vegas for a few years but do plan to return soon.

Here is a highlighted sentence of their article you linked to.  "Guests must also avoid having other players or MGM employees in their videos and photos. They must also not record audio of the actual game and can't play music or other audio from their device."

As far as MGM and Caesar's properties, we were always allowed to take pictures within the high limit rooms.  At least in the open areas or adjacent to the tables, as long as we didn't aim the phones at the other patrons, etc.  At least that is what we were told.

As far as snapping screen shots of the board or table we never asked or really desired to.

As far as streaming, I do know there are several YouTube regulars that stream table games and have been doing so for a few years.  Although I know they come from non MGM and Caesar's properties.

In general here in the Midwest it is extremely different from property to property.  We have casinos here that absolutely no phones allowed at the table and others that even provide charging plug ins under the rail and they could care less about use.  Others, you have to get up and make a call or text out of your seat.  Some allow me to snap a screen shot with no faces captured, while other absolutely forbid doing so.
#6
KungFuBac / Re: Live Casino Online - Best ...
Last post by alrelax - Yesterday at 02:01:23 PM
Gizmotron you are exactly correct.  Not one doubt!

That email was from an Offshore Casino coupled with numerous, actual online casino concerns. It was in an Asian country. The email was a small part of a much greater and in-depth series of conversations I had with the officials at the property and business end.

The so-called 'programmers' are more switch flippers and observers, but that is what they call them.

Yes it is theft not one doubt, but then again so is three card Monty on the streets of New York City. I am not defending them, I know 100% the highest majority of online casinos cheat, some with great blatant 'flipping the switch' after the bet is placed type of tactics, to a very mild, 'all we did was take away' the highest wagering player's edge and allow the smallest wagering players to win.

I was given this in detail explanation of how the applications are applied by a casino B&M and online official, that had been part of it for about 10 years. This was back around 2018.

What was unique I feel was this was a B & M casino, large without any doubt and professionally appearing in all aspects. Governmental gaming license, etc. They also had numerous leased floor spaces with gaming tables brought in and controlled by the leased operators. Those leased spaces were individually owned concerns but under the licensed authority of the casino.  Those spaces were allowed to set up online casinos as well as using their own floor spaced tables with their live dealers for in person open to the public gaming.

The casino would assist the leased operator with the logistical aspect of the technology for a percentage commission of the revenue realized by their leased space partners. In gist, that is one aspect to a very crooked world of the online gaming business.

FYI.  The leased spaced pricing was based upon actual space, not revenue collected.  The online end of it would be a set fee plus a percentage of the collected revenues realized.

I have never supported online gaming and never will and the very large supporting stone to that was just a few months ago. This is when I removed the online banners of supposedly a reputable online casino concern on this very forum.

What happened was the online casinos refusal to pay me commissions on five members that signed up and deposited funds along with gambling on their site through my forum. In plain words, they cheated me and if they cheated me for that, I can only imagine what they do to their gambling patrons! How do I know they cheated me? Because those five sign ups were members from my forum that signed up, deposited and played all under my control and direction with my funds. They outright told me, that not one of those five were linked to my forum. All false! Case closed. They lie and cheat and if they did that to me, they certainly do it to their players.

Why did I have five people signed up through my forum? Because a member of this forum complained to me that he won about \$800.00 within a week after signing up and was refused to withdraw his win money. I'm not going to get into the details, but the win was clear, it was deposited into his account and I don't believe there was any cheating whatsoever from the documents that I seen. A week after his attempt to withdraw it, the withdrawal was challenged and refused. They came back with a 60 day time frame hold and additional play necessary for the member to pass their, "new player checklist and the quick win be deemed as legitimate".

Again case closed. Online Casinos cheat, lie and steal from countless patrons.

#7
Vegas and Atlantic City / MGM Makes Surprising Las Vegas...
Last post by KungFuBac - Yesterday at 01:49:46 PM
This has alrelax written all over it  .

"...The Gaming Streaming/Video/Photo Policy is launching for the Nevada properties in May 2023," the memo shared. "The new policy is aimed at allowing our guests to take photos and videos, and, when appropriate, to share that content in real or in near real-time via social media broadcasts..."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/mgm-makes-surprising-las-vegas-strip-gambling-change/ar-AA1c6EXJ

Continued Success,
#8
KungFuBac / Re: Live Casino Online - Best ...
Last post by KungFuBac - Yesterday at 01:04:44 PM

I agree with your opinion Gizmotron.

This is very concerning (though not surprising). I've always been a little paranoid to gamble online though I know a few people that have been successful.

"...Originally started as a Graphical User Interface for Panorama Tools (hence the name), PTGui has evolved into a full featured, industry leading photo stitching application.  Take roulette for example.  We can have a series of 35 dealer initiated spins and instantly while appearing legitimately, allowing the outcome to be our chosen result. ..."

Strong words from an insider. The evidence is difficult to refute.

I avoid slot machines and avoid most e machines. Many of my states 120+ casinos only allow one to play their freeplay on slots or emachines(such as eCraps by Interblock or eRoulette by Evolution).

A friend was playing the eCraps(by interblock). It is the one with the slender cylindrical glass capsule with two small dice where one is not playing with other players. Anyway, he built a profit of +\$70,000 in approx 3months--then it was wiped away (+additional  -12K) in approx 2mo,....etc.
I had warned him it was simply a slot machine with a craps cabinet. He disagreed as it was his opinion they had no method to control the dice.  He was mostly wagering a steep Marty for 3 steps. Also, one can get a roll approx every 8-10seconds. A very dangerous combination.

Continued Success,
#9
KungFuBac / Re: Live Casino Online - Best ...
Last post by Gizmotron - Yesterday at 11:10:57 AM
Quote from: alrelax on Yesterday at 04:10:23 AMWe can have a series of 35 dealer initiated spins and instantly while appearing legitimately, allowing the outcome to be our chosen result.

It's nothing but cheating:

I knew it. Way back in 1995 I was part of the development software beta testers for the Macromedia online plugin Shockwave. Later this software plugin became Flash. This was the platform for true "write once, debug everywhere," that JAVA was supposed to be. You see the software displays 24 frames per second and makes stitching so seamless that nobody can see the switch.

I caught that online casino out of Canada that is run from an Indian reservation switching outcomes. I stopped betting online as soon as I noticed that I was being targeted. It's all a form of legalized theft.

I started out there with \$40 and rose to \$1,400 in three days. All I could get deposited was the \$40. They started targeting me within a week. It take3s a while to find the betting style and getting programmers to target you. Now days it's all AI. The computers can hit on you as soon as they push the button. The software knows how to take. The need for programmers is all done away with now days.
#10
KungFuBac / Re: Live Casino Online - Best ...
Last post by alrelax - Yesterday at 04:10:23 AM
Here is part of the email I received prior.

"........there are numerous ways to follow and track our players, believe me when I say that Glen.

Our software we write, purchase and altar has safeguards stitched in it. Our programmers are experts with all forms of Stitching algorithms with applications called PTGui.  PTGui is panoramic image stitching software for Windows, macOS and Linux. Originally started as a Graphical User Interface for Panorama Tools (hence the name), PTGui has evolved into a full featured, industry leading photo stitching application.  Take roulette for example.  We can have a series of 35 dealer initiated spins and instantly while appearing legitimately, allowing the outcome to be our chosen result.

We can employ or relinquish these type of controls at will. Slots and table games of all types, anything we offer online. Some jurisdictions have no concerns about these practices, while others only audit or verify on certain days that a minimum amount of win is being disbursed to the players of a gross amount of revenue we receive. A practice known as a guaranteed percentage being given to the players.

We track IP addresses as well as players Wagering regularly. We can easily alter an outcome of any electronic game and by doing so the highest majority of the times it will be within jurisdictional law. However is it ethical, absolutely not.  But it is a business decision based upon the number of players as well as the frequency and type of wagers being placed.

Yes we have secure and very complex RNG computers. We are occasionally audited and we will always know when the audit will happen. At times only minutes prior, because we have to allow access to the jurisdictional officials that are plugging into our system to verify the RNG method that we are using. It is virtually only a flip of a switch to go from one type of software to another.

Just because there is a live dealer, does not in any way dictate a pure random outcome of any game. Likewise any outcome of any game without dealers from electronic table games to slots................."